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Transcript of Fund Revenue Projections Fiscal Years 2013 2015 › wp-content › uploads...Eric Stuen ‐UI. 2...
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General Fund Revenue ProjectionsFiscal Years 2013‐2015
Scott Benson – ISUDon Holley – BSUEric Stuen ‐ UI
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2
10000.0
10500.0
11000.0
11500.0
12000.0
12500.0
13000.0
13500.0
14000.0
14500.0
2000‐01‐01 2004‐01‐01 2008‐01‐01 2012‐01‐01
Real GDP Potential Real GDP
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12
STATEWIDE SALES OF NEW AUTOMOBILES
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IDAHO: TOTAL NON‐AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
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500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Idaho Total Employment
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Idaho Construction Earnings (Millions of $)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1990Q1
1990Q4
1991Q3
1992Q2
1993Q1
1993Q4
1994Q3
1995Q2
1996Q1
1996Q4
1997Q3
1998Q2
1999Q1
1999Q4
2000Q3
2001Q2
2002Q1
2002Q4
2003Q3
2004Q2
2005Q1
2005Q4
2006Q3
2007Q2
2008Q1
2008Q4
2009Q3
2010Q2
2011Q1
2011Q4
2012Q3
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$‐
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
Jan‐03
Aug‐03
Mar‐04
Oct‐04
May‐05
Dec‐05
Jul‐0
6Feb‐07
Sep‐07
Apr‐08
Nov
‐08
Jun‐09
Jan‐10
Aug‐10
Mar‐11
Oct‐11
May‐12
12 Mnth Moving TotalIndividual Income Tax12 Mnth Moving TotalSales Tax
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$‐
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Jan‐03
Sep‐03
May‐04
Jan‐05
Sep‐05
May‐06
Jan‐07
Sep‐07
May‐08
Jan‐09
Sep‐09
May‐10
Jan‐11
Sep‐11
May‐12
12 Mnth Moving Total TotalDistibuted and Accrued toGeneral Fund
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Fiscal National Policy
• Congress has approved a resolution that results in:– The “Bush Tax Cuts” have been kept in place except for the “rich”
– Payroll tax cuts will be reinstated• Those making $30,000/year will experience a decrease in after‐tax income of about $50/month
• Difficult decisions remain regarding an increase in the national debt ceiling and government spending cuts.
• The “Fiscal Cliff” has been averted, temporarily.
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Monetary Policy
• The Federal Reserve Bank is committed to a very accommodating stance
• Now couched in the language that interest rates will remain low until unemployment is reduced to 6.5 % rather than a calendar framework– This is projected to extend throughout all of 2014
• The dual mandate, of full employment and price stability, continues to complicate matters– With inflation “under control” the Fed is concentrating policies to increase output and employment
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‐4.0%
‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Idaho PI: Act
Idaho PI: Pre
GDP: Act
GDP: Pre
ACTUAL AND PREDICTED GROWTH RATES FOR U.S. GDP AND IDAHO PERSONAL INCOME
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The University Forecast of General Fund Revenues:Fiscal Years 2013 – 2.15
ACTUAL FORECAST2012 2013 2014 2015
(ALL $ FIGURES IN MILLIONS OF $)
Individual Income Tax $ 1,206.4 $ 1,240.3 $ 1,293.3 $ 1,351.5 2.8% 4.3% 4.5%
Corporate Income Tax $ 187.0 $ 190.2 $ 194.2 $ 197.3 1.7% 2.1% 1.6%
Sales Tax $ 1,027.3 $ 1,055.9 $ 1,087.8 $ 1,122.6 2.8% 3.0% 3.2%
Total: Product Taxes $ 43.2 $ 48.2 $ 42.6 $ 44.7 11.6% ‐11.6% 4.9%
Total Miscellaneous Revenues $ 123.8 $ 122.1 $ 126.1 $ 132.0 ‐1.4% 3.3% 4.7%
Total General Fund $ 2,587.7 $ 2,656.7 $ 2,744.0 $ 2,848.1 2.7% 3.3% 3.8%
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Actual2012 2013 2014 2015
Individual Income Tax 1,206.4$ 1,240.3$ 1,293.3$ 1,351.5$ Corporate Income Tax 187.0$ 190.2$ 194.2$ 197.3$
Sales Tax 1,027.3$ 1,055.9$ 1,087.8$ 1,122.6$ Total: Individual, Corporate, Sales 2,420.8$ 2,486.5$ 2,575.3$ 2,671.4$
Cigarette Tax 11.6$ 13.1$ 5.0$ 5.3$ Tobacco Tax 8.9$ 9.4$ 10.0$ 10.7$
Beer Tax 1.9$ 2.0$ 2.0$ 2.0$ Wine Tax 3.5$ 3.6$ 3.7$ 3.9$
Liquor Distribution 17.3$ 20.1$ 21.8$ 22.8$ Total: Product Taxes 43.2$ 48.2$ 42.6$ 44.7$
Kilowatt Hour Tax 3.0$ 3.0$ 3.1$ 3.1$ Mine License Tax 2.0$ 2.0$ 2.1$ 2.1$
Treasurer (0.6)$ 0.1$ (0.8)$ (1.3)$ Judicial 4.9$ 4.9$ 4.9$ 4.9$
Insurance Premium Tax 56.6$ 58.1$ 59.7$ 61.4$ State Police 1.6$ ‐$ ‐$ ‐$
Secretary of State 2.4$ 2.0$ 2.0$ 2.0$ Other Misc 54.0$ 52.0$ 55.2$ 58.6$
Total Miscellaneious Revenues 123.8$ 122.1$ 126.1$ 132.0$
Total General Fund 2587.7 2656.7 2744.0 2848.12.7% 3.3% 3.8%
ForecastDetails of the University Forecast