Functioning of forest ecosystems and use of forest ... · 2. Impacts of climate change on forest...

Functioning of forest ecosystems and use of forest resources in

changing climate (MIL)

METLA’s research program2007‐2011

Elina Vapaavuori

METLA MIL ‐Moscow 10.02.2010

METLA MIL METLA MIL --Moscow 10.02.2010Moscow 10.02.2010

Suonenjoki, koivuSuonenjoki, koivu Rhinelander, USARhinelander, USAAspenAspenPaper birchPaper birchSugar mapleSugar maple

Flakaliden,SWEFlakaliden,SWENorway spruceNorway spruce

Suonenjoki, FINSilver birch

Outline:

BackgroundClimate change scenariosEffects on forest ecosystems

New research tasks and issues to consider in forestryMIL –research program:

Objectives of the programProjectsResourcesDeliverables

METLA MIL ‐Moscow 10.02.2010

Global annual CO2 emissions have increased markedly since year 1950The emission rate has even increased since year 2000 (>3 % annual increase)

The task to cut down emissions to the level of Kyoto and EU agreement will be hard

Raupach et al. 2007.

PNAS 104, 47:18866-18870.METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010

METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010

• Projections of future temperature changes (IPCC 2007)• warming greatest at the high latitudes• effects on winter length, frost, snow cover


• Projections of future temperature changes (IPCC 2007)• warming greatest at the high latitudes• effects on winter length, frost, snow cover

winter summer

Great effects on precipitation:variations globally and between seasons

Weather extremes:heavy rains, flooding, storms, heat/drought periods

Consequences:various stress factors to forest ecosystems

Warming in Finland by ~0.4±0.1°C/10 yr during the next three decades

Annual mean temperature

Cha

nge

in te

mpe

ratu

re (

ºC) 1971-2000 => 2070-2099

Scenario Change (ºC)A2 5.1 (3.1 –

7.0)

A1B 4.4 (2.5 –

6.3)

B1 3.2 (1.5 –

4.9)

01020

30

2000 2050 2100

Emissions

(Gt C

/yea

r)

Multi-model mean (19 GCMs) and the 90% uncertainty range

• The rate of warming deviates little between the different emission scenarios up to by the 2040s.

• The warming by the end of the century would be about one third smaller in the B1 scenario compared to the A2 scenario.

With permission: FMI/Kirsti Jylhä


Temperature (ºC) Contour interval two degrees.

Annual mean temperature 1970-2000

01020

30

2000 2050 2100

Emissions

(Gt C

/yea

r)

A1B

Annual mean temperature 2070-2099

Data source: Haylock et al. (2008)


DJF 1971-2000 => 2070-2099 JJA

A1B

Unit: %

0102030

2000 2050 2100

Increases in precipitation in Finland

• in winter by 10–40%, and in summer by 0–20%, by the 2080s• Larger precipitation amounts in summer than in winter also in the future


Prospects of forest growth based on impact –studiesMeta-analysis using data from FACE -exps.

- In forest trees the reponse to ↑CO2 greatest~40 % in photosynthesis~28 % in above-ground biomass

- Overestimates due to minimal risks in these studies


Questions needed to understand:Are our forest trees and forest ecosystems adapted to the

predicted changes in climate

Increasing T, precipitation, longer growing season, extreme weather events

What are the risks, abiotic and biotic?

How to avoid or cope with the risks?

How to mitigate climate change in forest sector?

Forest industry, carbon storage, bioenergy, biodiversity, multiple use of forests

What are the opinions of the land owners and what policy means are available in driving the behaviour of the land owners?


MIL-

program: why and to whom?

Information needed: Provide basic knowledge of CC effectsfor CC scenariosof forests’ role in CC mitigationfor decision making in the context of national and international climate policyTo develop the greenhouse gas reporting system of forests, one of Metla’s official tasks


MIL –

3 thematic areas1. What are the signs of climate change in forest growth?

Proxy dataIncreased forest growth: What are the effects of forest management vs. climate change?Phenology

2. Impacts of climate change on forest ecosystemsGenetics:

Species, provenance questionsAdaptation to weather extremes

Forest health:Pathogens, pest insects and mammals

Forest soil:Frost and floodingPeatlands: N mobilization due to increasing T?Forest vegetation

3. Use of forest resources in changing climateForest policy actions as climate and energy policy means


MIL projects: 14 research projectsTheme 1: Phenology

Kari Mielikäinen: Causes and consequences of increasing growth of Finnish forestsRisto Jalkanen: The use of the time series based on the Needle Trace Method, NTM, in climate change studies, and in visualization of tree developmentEero Kubin: Phenology and crop forecasts of forest plants in changing climate

Theme 2: Forest genetics, forest health, forest soilPertti Pulkkinen: Forests 2050Matti Rousi: Adaptability of birches to global climate changeMichael Müller: Adaption to local climate and dispersion potential of some conifer pathogens in EuropeSeppo Neuvonen: The assessment and control of risks caused by forest pest insects in a changing environmentHeikki Henttonen: Impact of climate change on forest damage by mammalsTytti Sarjala: Impact of climate change on C and N transformations in organic soilsTapani Repo: Climate change and tree roots: Effects of soil frost and flooding on tree growthHannu Ilvesniemi: The effects of climate change on the distribution ranges and thestructure of forest vegetation in FinlandHeljä-Sisko Helmisaari: Carbon and nutrient dynamics in forest soil under environmental change

Theme 3: Forest policyJussi Uusivuori: Climate policies and the forest sectorMaarit Kallio: Climate Change - Forests in terrestrial adaptation and mitigation in Europe


MIL –resources 2007 -

2009METLA Researchers,

months of work

Technical personnel, months of work

Total budget

2007 29 / 155 200 1.5 M€

2008 46 / 208 270 2.135 M€

2009 65 / 287 305 2.545 M€

External funding:

Finnish Academy, EU, foundations, Ministeries, SNS-Nordic Forest Research Co-operation Committee etc.


MIL –program deliverables:

Publishing:Scientific referred articlesData and reports for decision makers

National and international visibílity:Presentations in meetings, mediaInternational networks (SNS, COST, IUFRO)

Challenge for the last two years:Synthesis, summary papers


Thank

you

for attention!More

information: Program

leader

Elina Vapaavuori

[email protected]

http://www.metla.fi/ohjelma/mil/index.htm


mailto:[email protected]

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