Full Year 2017 Financial Results...* Free cash flow refers to cash flow from operations less capex;...
Transcript of Full Year 2017 Financial Results...* Free cash flow refers to cash flow from operations less capex;...
31 January 2018
Full Year 2017 Financial ResultsLakshmi N. Mittal, Chairman and Chief Executive OfficerAditya Mittal, Chief Financial Officer
Disclaimer
Forward-Looking Statements
This document may contain forward-looking information and statements about ArcelorMittal and its subsidiaries. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target” or similar expressions. Although ArcelorMittal’s management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of ArcelorMittal’s securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of ArcelorMittal, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) made or to be made by ArcelorMittal, including ArcelorMittal’s latest Annual Report on Form 20-F on file with the SEC. ArcelorMittal undertakes no obligation to publicly update its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
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Capital allocation policy to maximise value for shareholders
Positioned to deliver value
• Material improvement in results, reflecting strengthening market backdrop
• Transformed balance sheet, with continued deleveraging bias
• Unique global portfolio of competitive well-invested assets
• Industry leader in product and process innovation
• Action 2020 continues to structurally improve profitability
• Investing with focus and discipline
• Reinstating base dividend with intention to increase capital returns
* Free cash flow refers to cash flow from operations less capex
ArcelorMittal has achieved notable progress on multiple strategic fronts during 2017 and isincreasingly well positioned to deliver sustainable value to its shareholders.
Financial results showed material improvement over the same period of 2016. Demand in our coremarkets is growing, with healthy PMI readings.
In recent years the Company has transformed its balance sheet. We delivered on our commitmentto prioritise debt reduction, significantly strengthening our balance sheet and ending 2017 with thelowest level of net debt since the formation of the Company. Our year end Net Debt balance of$10.1 billion represented a multiple of 1.2x EBITDA.
Importantly, and in line with our targets, the cash needs of the business have been limited to $4.4billion. Although we invested $1.9 billion in working capital and a further $0.4 billion in premiums tobuyback our bonds, we delivered healthy free cashflow.
The Action 2020 plan continues to differentiate ArcelorMittal from its peer group. Action 2020improvements contributed $0.6 billion to our 2017 EBITDA, bringing the cumulative benefit to $1.5billion, half way to our target. Whilst we have already made significant progress on a number of keyinitiatives such as the Asset Optimization project in the US and the Transformation program inEurope, there is more to come. The business remains focussed on structurally improving costs;capturing the volume opportunities; and increasing the share of high added value products.
Whilst the Company’s priority for surplus cash continues to be debt reduction, the Company isinvesting with focus and discipline to improve further returns for shareholders. During 2017, anumber of projects were completed in support of our ongoing transition towards higher added valueproducts. In addition, we were able to make progress with our asset portfolio including theproposed acquisition of ILVA, Italy’s largest steel producer and proposed merger of our Longproducts business in Brazil with Votorantim.
Finally, we are pleased to announce that given the improving performance and market outlook theBoard proposes to reinstate the base dividend. Once it achieves net debt at or below its target of$6 billion, the Company is committed to returning a portion of annual FCF to shareholders.
0.780.820.810.850.85
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20162009 2010 2011
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2014 20152013 2017
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Health & Safety Lost time injury frequency (LTIF) rate*Mining & steel, employees and contractors
* LTIF = Lost time injury frequency defined as Lost Time Injuries per 1.000.000 worked hours; based on own personnel and contractors
Safety is our priority
Our goal is to be the safest Metals & Mining company
On our safety performance, the Lost time injury frequency rate (LTIFR) in 2017 was 0.78 incidents per millionhours worked compared with 0.82 in 2016 and in marked contrast with the 3.1 recorded in 2007, the first year inwhich the Company recorded safety data after its formation. ArcelorMittal's performance is significantly better thanthe steel industry average of 1.0, the World Steel Association figure for 2016.
The Company’s efforts to improve its Health and Safety record remains focused on both further reducing the rateof severe injuries and preventing fatalities.
We remain committed to the journey towards zero harm and ensure that all levels of the organization are focusedon this primary objective.
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Significantly improved results
Significantly improved results
• EBITDA +34.4% YoY to $8.4bn
• Steel shipments +1.6% YoY to 85.2Mt
• Marketable iron ore shipments +6.1% YoY
• Net income +156.7% YoY to $4.6bn
• Working capital investment of $1.9bn reflecting stronger markets
• Free cash flow* $1.7bn ($2.1bn excluding bond premia**)
• Net debt down to $10.1bn (despite $0.7bn FX headwind)
* Free cash flow refers to cash flow from operations less capex; ** includes one-time premium paid on early repayment of debt totalling $389m
ArcelorMittal reported EBITDA of $8.4 billion for 2017 as compared to $6.3 billion in 2016.
Our 2017 performance was supported by 1.6% steel shipments growth to 85.2Mt, reflecting thegrowth in global steel demand, as well as +6.1% growth in iron ore marketable shipments. Miningmarketable iron ore shipments fell short of targets due to operational issues, but we expectimprovement in 2018 as these are resolved.
Net income for 2017 improved significantly to $4.6 billion as compared to $1.8 billion in 2016 drivenin part by improved operating performance and lower forex and tax impact.
Importantly, and in line with our targets, the cash needs of the business have been limited to $4.4billion. Although we invested $1.9 billion in working capital and a further $0.4 billion investment tobuyback our bonds, we delivered positive free cashflow of $1.7 billion for the year.
We also made notable progress in debt reduction as promised. Net debt of $10.1 billion as ofDecember 31, 2017, was lower than $11.1 billion as of December 31, 2016 in spite of a $0.7 billionheadwind from foreign exchange impacts.
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EBITDA impacted by improved ASP, steel volumes and Mining profitability
2017 operating performance highlights
Europe: EBITDA +42.3% to $3.6bnShipments +1.7% to 40.9Mt EBITDA per tonne +39.8% to $87/t
NAFTA: EBITDA -0.9% to $1.7bnShipments +2.6% to 21.8MtEBITDA per tonne -3.4% to $78/t
BRAZIL: EBITDA +13.5% to $1.0bnShipments +0.8% to 10.8Mt EBITDA per tonne +12.6% to $91/t
ACIS: EBITDA +51.4% to $1.0bnShipments -1.3% to 13.1Mt EBITDA per tonne +53.4% to $78/t
Mining: EBITDA +84.7% to $1.4bnMarket-priced iron ore shipments +6.1% to 35.7MtFCF breakeven level remains at $40/t CFR China 62% Fe
7.25.2 6.3
8.4
FY14
34.4%
FY16FY15 FY17
EBITDA 2014-2017 ($ billion)
2016 to 2017 EBITDA by segment ($ billion)
0.6
0.11.1
0.3
EuropeACISNAFTA Brazil FY17
8.4
Mining
0.0
FY16
6.3
Turning to the operating performance of ArcelorMittal in 2017.
Group EBITDA increased by 34.4% in FY 2017. EBITDA per ton increased to $99/t in FY 2017from $75/t in FY 2016.
Our steel performance improved with steel-only EBITDA up to $7.0 billion in FY 2017 as comparedto $5.5 billion in FY 2016.
Europe recorded a solid set of results with EBITDA at $3.6 billion, up +42.3% YoY primarily drivenby +1.7% improvement in steel shipments, positive price-cost effect and ongoing Action 2020 costimprovement initiatives.
ACIS profitability increased by +51.4% to $1.0 billion, driven mainly by improvements in the CISoperations. Action 2020 gains complemented improved operating performance and a positiveprice-cost effect.
Brazil performance improved by +13.5% to $1.0 billion, primarily driven by a positive price-costeffect.
NAFTA EBITDA declined by -0.9% to $1.7 billion driven largely by a negative price-cost effect andweakness in the long business offset in part by a +2.6% improvement in shipments.
Results in our Mining business significantly improved by +84.7% to $1.4 billion , benefiting fromhigher iron ore prices (+22.3% YoY) and higher market priced iron ore shipment volumes (+6.1%YoY). The FCF breakeven level remains at $40/t (CFR China 62% Fe). We continue to expect tomake further iron ore volume gains in 2018.
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Action 2020 driving structural EBITDA improvement
Delivering on Action 2020
• Action 2020 impacted 2017 EBITDA by $0.6bn
• Volume improvements of $0.3bn and cost/mix $0.3bn
3.0
1.5
0.9
2017 2020 Target
2016
Action 2020 cumulative EBITDA progress (2016-2020 Target) ($billion)
• Europe: Transformation progressing well savings in procurement/ productivity on track.
• More integrated centrally co-ordinated approach, further reducing costs
• Enhanced use of digitalisation in the manufacturing process, supply chain and commercialisation
• NAFTA: Asset optimisation complete; savings from No 2 steel shop idling; headcount rationalisation; Calvert utilisation increasing to 88%
• Brazil: HAV mix improvement
• ACIS: Kazakhstan record steel production; Ukraine savings from new coke oven battery No.6
• Mining: Remained focussed on service, quality and asset reliability. FCF breakeven level of $40/t China CFR 62% Fe
Turning to Action 2020, which we initiated at the start of 2016.
As you know, this is a strategic initiative to structurally improve the performance of our business. Detailedplans along 3 key improvement axes (cost, volume, mix) aim to return Group EBITDA to >$85/t level,representing a required EBITDA improvement of approximately $3 billion.
The Company has made further significant progress during the course of 2017. Action 2020 improvementscontributed $0.6 billion to our 2017 EBITDA, bringing the cumulative benefit to $1.5 billion. As you can seefrom the chart, we are approximately half of the way along the Action 2020 journey with all segmentscontributing to the progress.
The savings in 2017 were achieved from a combination of volume ($0.3bn) and cost/product miximprovements ($0.3bn). Volume is a key component of Action 2020 (5Mt volume improvement, representingapproximately 1/3 of the overall plan) and we expect to see more progress in this area in 2018, assumingmarket conditions remain favourable.
The European Transformation program is progressing well with savings in procurement/ productivity ontrack. The division operates in a more integrated centrally co-ordinated approach, further reducing costs.Enhanced use of digitalisation in the manufacturing process, supply chain and commercialisation are achievingfurther savings.
In NAFTA, Asset optimisation at Indiana Harbour is now complete. Savings are derived following idling of No. 2steel shop and headcount rationalisation. While at Calvert, utilisation increased from 79% in 2016 to 88% in2017.
In Brazil structural costs initiatives are being implemented and benefited from higher volume and improvedHAV mix.
In ACIS: Kazakhstan produced records shipments; while Ukraine savings are from new coke oven battery No.6and other PCI/energy related savings.
In Mining, we remained focussed on service, quality and asset reliability.
Continuous innovation
3rd Generation AHSS products CR980HF & CR1180HF• HF / Fortiform® provide additional weight
reduction due to enhanced mechanical properties compared to conventional AHSS
New press hardenable steels (PHS) Usibor®2000 & Ductibor®1000• Bring immediate possibilities of 10% weight
saving on average compared to conventional coated PHS produced by ArcelorMittal
Jet Vapor Deposition (JVD) line : Jetgal ®• JVD line is a breakthrough technology to
produce Jetgal®, a new coating for AHSS steels for automotive industry
Electrical steelsiCARe®, 2nd Generation• Family of electrical steels for electrified powertrain
optimization and enhanced machine performance, Save*, Torque** and Speed*** are specifically designed for a typical electric automotive application.
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Steel remains material of choice
• Electric vehicles (EV) to favour lightweight designs (similar to traditional vehicles)
• EV employ AHSS to achieve range goals
The mass-market Tesla Model 3 body and chassis is a blend of steel and aluminium, unlike the Tesla Model S which is an aluminium body (Source: Tesla website+)
Steel to remain material of choice for automotive
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* Save (Steels with very low losses): Ideal for the efficiency of the electrical machine. Their key role is maximize the use of the current coming from the battery.
** Torque (Steels with high permeability): They achieve the highest levels of mechanical power output for a motor or current supply for a generator
*** Speed (Steels for high speed rotors): Specific high strength electrical steels which maintain high level of magnetic performance. They allow the machine to be more compact and have a higher power density.
+ https://www.tesla.com/compare
http://automotive.arcelormittal.com/ElectricVehiclesImpactOnSteel
ArcelorMittal has consistently funded R&D despite the challenges we have faced in recent periods.
We have a leading portfolio of products to help auto manufacturers reduce the weight of their vehicles.
Our solutions offer a compelling combination of weight savings, strength, safety improvement and value. As aresult, we are now in a position to offer the widest range of AHSS grades in the market.
Jet Vapor Deposition (JVD) is a breakthrough technology for metallic coating of steel, developed by ArcelorMittaland now installed at Liege, Belgium. JVD offers significant advantages including exceptionally uniform coatingand improved adhesion of the coating regardless of the steel grade.
Recent product launches include Usibor®2000 and Ductibor®1000, our latest generation of press hardenablesteels which are today commercially available in Europe and available for qualification testing in North America.
Our first third-generation AHSS for cold forming, Fortiform®, which was commercially launched in Europe in2014, is now available in North America at Calvert and undergoing customer qualifications.
Looking ahead, we remain positive about the outlook for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), with the currentportfolio of lightweight Body in White (BiW) solutions and electrical steels positioning the Company to takeadvantage of the growth in this emerging segment. This is best exemplified by the choice of several OEMs likeGM, Tesla and Nissan to utilize a more affordable steel intensive solution for their mass market models (Bolt,Model 3 and Leaf respectively) (Source: Company websites, McKinsey).
The engagement we have with our auto customers, traditional and non traditional, leaves us confident that steelwill continue to be an important material for vehicles through electrification and beyond. Factors like safety willcontinue to be important and here steel has a strong competitive advantage, combined with flexibility and cost.
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Strong global economic fundamentals support further expected steel demand expansion in 2018
Business outlook remains favourableArcelorMittal Global PMI* ArcelorMittal demand forecasts 2018
+1.5% to +2.5%
+3.0% to +4.0%
+6.5% to +7.5%
+1.0% to +2.0%
US
China
EU28
+2.0% to +3.0%
Global Ex China
+1.5% to +2.5%
Brazil
CIS
Global
-0.5% to +0.5%
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Latest data point Dec’17: 56.2
* ArcelorMittal estimates
Demand conditions in 2017 were favourable with global demand growth estimated at +3.2%.
The ArcelorMittal shipment weighted global PMI at 56.2 in December 2017 is the highest for 6years. It continues to indicate growth in demand for our steel. Looking to 2018, on the slide weshow our forecasts for apparent consumption growth in our key regions. Our focus is on apparentrather than real demand since this is what will drive our shipments in 2018.
Starting with the US, driven by ongoing demand in machinery and construction, ASC is estimatedto grow +1.5% to +2.5% in 2018 (including pipes and tubes) (versus +1.3% in 2017 (excludingpipes and tubes)).
In Europe, we expect underlying demand to continue to grow, supported by the strength of themachinery and construction end market, and overall demand is expected to be +1.0% to +2.0% in2018 (versus growth of +1.5% in 2017).
In Brazil, ASC is expected to grow by +6.5% to +7.5% in 2018 (an acceleration of growth versus+4.6% in 2017), as the economy starts to turnaround with improved consumer confidence and pickup in long products as construction recovers.
In the CIS, ASC is estimated to grow +2.0% to +3.0% in 2018 (a moderation of growth vs +5.4% in2017).
In China, ASC grew by +3.5% in 2017, higher than our initial expectations. Overall demand isexpected to remain close to this level in 2018 (between -0.5% to +0.5%), as the anticipatedweakness in the real estate sector is expected to be offset in part by robust infrastructure andautomotive end markets.
Nevertheless, ex China ASC is expected to grow by approximately +3.0% to +4.0% in 2018, whichsupports global ASC growth of +1.5% to +2.5% in 2018 (as compared to growth of ~3.2% in 2017).
Capital allocation framework
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Investment grade rating (through the cycle) remains the Group’s primary financial objective
Transformed balance sheet
• Net debt lowest since merger
• Positive momentum towards investment grade rating
• Interest costs declined by ~56% since 2012
• Maximising ability to translate EBITDA to FCF
Net Debt ($bn)
Debt adjusted FCF ($bn)
$3bn cumulative FCF since 2012 increases to $8bn adjusting for 2018F cash interest expense
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Debt Adjusted FCF**
FCF*
* Free cash flow refers to cash flow from operations less capex; ** Debt adjusted FCF refers to historical FCF adjusted to reflect 2018 forecast interest expense of $0.6bn
Over the past six years, our net debt has been reduced by over half (from $21.8 billion to $10.1billion). We have maintained strong liquidity and utilized our available cash to repay and prepaynear and medium term bond maturities. The Group primary financial objective of an investmentgrade rating (through the cycle) has positive momentum.
Following changes by Moody’s and S&P in 4Q 2017, all three ratings agencies now have our ratingon a positive outlook.
Importantly, net interest costs have also been reduced significantly, declining by ~56% over thesame period. When we adjust the historic FCF to reflect the forecast 2018 interest cost, thecumulative FCF generation since 2012 would have been ~$8 billion compared to $3 billionreported. This highlights the impact of deleveraging on our FCF potential going forward.
Deleveraging remains the near term priority. A lower cost balance sheet will enhance our ability totranslate EBITDA into free cash flow to generate value for our investors.
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Deleveraging bias to continue until net debt target achieved
Disciplined capital allocation• Targeting $6bn net financial debt (NFD)
Positive FCF* in all market environments**
Investment grade metrics secure through the cycle
Lower cost balance sheet Maximise FCF potential
Position of strength to return capital to shareholders
Robust balance sheet
Invest in strengths
Returns to shareholders
• Investing in opportunities with focus and discipline
To grow EBITDA and enhance future returns
Grow FCF potential of the business
• Reinitiating base dividend at $0.10/share
• Capital returns to shareholders will increase to a portion of FCF once NFD target achieved
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* Free cash flow refers to cash flow from operations less capex ** Refers to the post merger period
Over the past 24 months we have transformed our balance sheet, reducing our net debt toEBITDA leverage ratio from over 3.0x to 1.2x. Free cash flow has been healthy and theallocation of this cash has become a major focus point for investors over the past 12 months.As such, the Company determined that it was appropriate to outline in more detail our policyand associated targets.
Firstly the Company will continue to prioritize deleveraging and believes that US$6 billion isan appropriate net debt target that will sustain investment grade metrics even at the low pointof the cycle.
Achieving an investment grade rating will ensure a lower cost balance sheet and maximisethe Company’s ability to translate/convert EBITDA to Free Cash Flow. An investment gradebalance sheet will support positive free cash flow in any market environment and ultimatelyprovide the strongest foundation from which to make sustainable returns to shareholders.
Given the progress made over the past two years both in terms of the Company’s balancesheet situation and the industry fundamentals, the Company is in a position to invest not justin maintaining the asset base and our competitive position, but in opportunities and projectsthat will increase EBITDA and enhance future returns. By investing in these opportunities withfocus and discipline, the FCF potential of the Company is expected to increase.
In terms of returning cash to shareholders, the Board has agreed on a new dividend policywhich will be proposed to shareholders at the AGM in May 2018. Given the currentdeleveraging bias, dividends will begin with a $0.10/share in 2018 (paid from 2017 results).Once it achieves net debt at or below its target, the Company is committed to returning aportion of annual FCF to shareholders.
By waiting until we have achieved our net debt target before commencing more significantcash returns to shareholders, we expect that those returns can ultimately be more substantialand that shareholders will have greater confidence in the sustainability of those returns.
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Capitalising on high-return opportunities; Capex increasing to $3.8bn in 2018
Focused investment • Italy: Restore ILVA as leading Italian steel
supplier
• Underperforming asset requiring turnaround
• Expanded product range with new HAV steel grades
• Synergies €310m of which €50m to benefit ArcelorMittal’s existing operations
• 2018 investment of ~$300m for environmental capex (full year basis)
• Subject to regulatory approvals
• Mexico: $1.0bn three-year investment for construction of a new 2.5Mt HSM
• High value return project improved HAV mix
• Capex investment of ~$350m in 2018 commenced
• Increase capability to serve domestic Mexican industry
Capex in 2018 ($ billion)
0.10.3
0.5
0.1
FY18F
3.8
ILVA & Mexico
2017 carry over
ForexVarious strategic projects
FY17
2.8
Primarily steel projects focusing on downstream optimisation in Europe and
HAV in Canada & Europe
There are attractive opportunities to deploy capital to increase the future returns of the business.The Company’s progress on reducing net debt now means that we are also in a position to moveforward and capture the best of these opportunities. As a result we are increasing capex in 2018 to$3.8 billion. There are 2 key projects behind this increase.
Firstly, we are budgeting to spend approximately $0.2 billion at Ilva in 2018 as part of our multiyearplan of significant environmental capex as we seek to restore the asset to its full potential. Subjectto regulatory approval capex investment will be initiated. Turning around this underperformingasset, expanding the product range with new HAV steel grades and capturing significant synergiespresents a unique opportunity for ArcelorMittal to create value for our shareholders by leveragingour strengths.
Secondly, in Mexico we have committed to a $1.0 billion investment for the construction of a new2.5Mt hot strip mill. This is a high return opportunity given the attractive market dynamics in Mexicoand favourable investment climate at Lazaro Cardenas. The project has commenced withconstruction expected to be completed in 2Q 2020. The Mexico capex impact in 2018 isapproximately $350 million.
Beyond these 2 key projects, we are also planning to spend a further $0.3 billion in additionalstrategic capex in 2018. This includes further investment to enhance downstream optimisation inEurope; capex at Dofasco and our European business to increase our high added value capacitiesto ensure we have the industrial capacity to supply our customers with the solutions we aredeveloping, particularly in automotive. Strategic capex also includes investments to improveproductivity and reduce costs across the steel business. The balance of spend is due to carry overof capex from 2017 and forex effects.
The Company employs a rigorous gate keeping process ahead of any capital investments. Onlyprojects that achieve the Company’s 15% IRR hurdle rate are considered for investment.
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• ~50% of Action 2020 delivered
Capital allocation policy to maximise value for shareholders
Investing with focus & discipline
Industry outlook improving
Strategy delivering
Transformed balance sheet
Commitment to return cash to shareholders
• Net debt / EBITDA down to 1.2x
• Deleveraging to continue
• Ex-China demand growth expected to continue
• Global capacity utilization improving
• Leveraging strengths to grow returns
• Dividends restarted
Building the strongest
foundations for sustainable
value creation
Positioned to deliver value
To conclude, ArcelorMittal has achieved notable progress on multiple strategic fronts during 2017 and isincreasingly well positioned to deliver sustainable value to its shareholders.
The execution of the Company’s strategy has, combined with improved industry fundamentals, deliveredhealthy results. There is more to come from our Action 2020 initiatives in the coming periods, particularlyfrom volume and mix improvements.
In recent years, the Company has transformed its balance sheet. We delivered on our commitment toprioritise debt reduction, significantly strengthening our balance sheet and ending the year with thelowest level of net debt since the formation of the Company. This deleveraging bias will continue as wetarget a net debt of below $6 billion to support an investment grade rating at all points of the cycle.
Whilst the Company’ priority for surplus cash continues to be debt reduction, the Company is investingwith focus and discipline to further improve returns for shareholders.
Given the improving performance and market outlook the Board proposes to reinstate the base dividend.
Against the strengthening industry backdrop, ArcelorMittal will continue to deliver on its strategic prioritiesin order to build the strongest foundations for sustainable value creation.
Appendix
The head of Audi’s ‘Lightweight Construction Centre’ is quoted as saying that “There will be no cars made of aluminium alone in the future. Press hardened steel will play a special role in this development. If you compare the stiffness to weight ratio, PHS is currently ahead of aluminium”.
Financial results
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ArcelorMittal remains focussed on controlling its cash requirements
Cash needs of the business
• Cash needs* to rise in 2018:
– Increase of $1.2bn vs. 2017 reflects
a) higher CAPEX (increase from $2.8bn to
$3.8bn largely reflecting Mexico project
and anticipated ILVA capex)
b) expected increases in cash taxes primarily
on account of timing impacts
* Cash needs of the business defined as: capex, net interest, cash taxes, pensions and other cash costs but excluding working capital investment
** Estimates for cash taxes in 2018 largely reflect the taxable profits of 2017
• Working capital requirements to be driven by market conditions
2.83.8
0.8
0.60.8
1.24.4
2018F
Net interest
Capex
5.6
Taxes**, pension and other
2017
Cash needs of business ($ billion)
17
EBITDA to net results
2,141
1,234
9101,039
125
129
Pre-tax income
Forex and other fin. result
Taxes and non-
controlling interests
Net income
(261)
Net interest expense
(188)
Income from investments
Operating income
Impairment
(160)
D&A
(747)
EBITDA
Positive net income primarily driven by positive operating income
BASIC EPS 4Q’17
Weighted Av. No. of shares (in millions) 1,020
Earnings per share $1.02
4Q’17 EBITDA to net income analysis ($ million)
Includes positive contribution from
Calvert and Chinese investees
Includes net losses on derivatives (pellet
purchase agreement in US offset by MTM on MCB call
options) offset in part by forex gain of $83m.
Includes deferred tax asset of $275m in Luxembourg
following expectation of higher future taxable profits.
Related to impairment in South Africa
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EBITDA to net results
8,408
5,434 5,007 4,568
Taxes and non-
controlling interests
Net incomeIncome from investments
448
Operating income
Impairment
(206)
D&A
(439)
Pre-tax income
Forex and other fin. result
(52)
Net interest expense
(823)
(2,768)
EBITDA
Positive net income primarily driven by positive operating income
BASIC EPS 2017
Weighted Av. No. of shares (in millions) 1,020
Earnings per share $4.48
FY’17 EBITDA to net income analysis ($ million)
Includes gain from disposal of AM USA’s 21% stake in Empire Iron Mining Partnership ($133m); improved performance of Calvert & Chinese investees, offset in part by a loss on dilution of Company’s stake in
China Oriental and the recycling of cumulative forex translation losses incurred following disposal of the
50% stake in Kalagadi ($187m).
Includes forex gain of $0.5bn on account US depreciation of
13.8% against Euro; $0.5bn net non-cash market to market gain
on derivatives offset by premiums on bonds ($0.4bn)
Related to impairments in South Africa
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EBITDA to free cash flow
* Change in working capital: cash movement in trade accounts receivable plus inventories less trade and other accounts payable
Strong free cashflow generation
8,408
4,563
1,744
(1,972)
(1,873)
EBITDA
(2,819)
Cash flow from operations
Free cash flowChange in working capital*
Net financial cost, tax and others
Capex
2017 EBITDA to free cash flow analysis ($ million)
Includes $0.4bn bond premium
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Net debt analysis
Net debt reduction driven by positive free cash flow offset in part by forex
758
Net debt at Dec 31, 2017
10,142
Forex and otherDividend
141
M&A *
(72)
Free cash flow
(1,744)
Net debt at Dec 31, 2016
11,059
Dec 31, 2016 to Dec 31 2017 ($ million)
*On August 7, 2017 ArcelorMittal USA and Cliffs Natural Resources (“Cliffs”) agreed that Cliffs would acquire ArcelorMittal USA’s 21% ownership interest in the Empire Iron Mining Partnership for $133m plus assumptions of all partnership liabilities. The payment of the $133m will be in 3 equal instalments with the 1st payment in August 2017 ($44m), with the 2 subsequent payments to be received in August 2018 and 2019.
Forex of $715m: Mainly driven by USD depreciation
against the Eur 13.8%
Mainly dividends paid to Posco (AMMC) and
Bekaert
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Liquidity and debt maturity profile
Positive trajectory towards target to achieve an IG credit rating
Liquidity at Dec 31, 2017 ($ billion)
Liquidity lines:
• $5.5bn lines of credit refinanced and extended in Dec 2016; two tranches:
• $2.3bn matures Dec 2019• $3.2bn matures Dec 2021
• Continued strong liquidity • Average debt maturity 4.6 Yrs
Debt maturity: Ratings:
• S&P – BB+, positive outlook• Moody’s – Ba1, positive outlook • Fitch – BB+, positive outlook
5.5
2.8
Unused credit lines
Cash
Liquidity at Dec 31, 2017
8.3
Debt maturities at Dec 31, 2017 ($ billion)
0.9 0.9
1.91.4 1.5
2.8
0.8
0.3
0.4
0.5
1.1
2021
0.2
2022 >20232019 20202018
0.2
Other loans Commercial paper Bonds
* The 2018 maturities in “other loans” include an additional $298 million of a borrowing base facility in South Africa, which matures in 2020.
22* Net debt refers to long-term debt, plus short term debt, less cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments (including those held as part of asset/liabilities held for sale); ** Liquidity is defined cash and cash equivalents plus available credit lines excluding back-up lines for commercial paper program
Balance sheet structurally improved
Balance sheet fundamentals improved
Net debt* ($ billion) Average debt maturity (Years)
Liquidity** ($ billion) Bank debt as component of total debt (%)
32.5
10.1
-22.4
4Q 20173Q 2008
4.6
2.6
4Q 20173Q 2008
8.3
12.0
4Q 20173Q 2008
10%
4Q 20173Q 2008
75%
23
Sustainable development - key to our resilience
Leadership in our response to long term trends
• Embedding 10 sustainable development (SD) outcomes into the business gives us long term view
of risks and opportunities.
• We intend to publish our third step towards integrated reporting in April 2018 – an integrated
assessment of sustainable development within the ArcelorMittal group business in the short,
medium and long term
• Customers increasingly expect us to support their sustainability ambitions. We have made good
progress in 2017 with multiple stakeholders towards a comprehensive third-party certification
system (ResponsibleSteel™) to reassure steel customers of social and environmental standards
in their supply chains. We are preparing a number of European sites to comply.
• We are assessed and included in a number of sustainability leadership indices:
Trade case: Ongoing focus
US
Europe
• Anti-Dumping (AD) and Anti Subsidy (AS) duties are in place on all four flat product categories: CORE, CRC, HRC, and plate from key importing countries measures in place for five years
• Anti-circumvention investigations initiated by the Department of Commerce (DOC) for CRC and CORE imports from China (through Vietnam). DOC affirmative preliminary determination announced Dec 6, 2017. Importers will be required to post cash deposits for potential AD/CVD duties. Final determination expected 1Q’18
• Section 232: April 2017 - initiation of a national security investigation with respect to steel imports; DOC report sent to Trump administration on January 11, 2018. President then has 90 days to decide what action to take, if any
24
• Final AD duties on CRC imports from China & Russia
• Final AD duties on HRC and QP imports from China approved on Feb 10, 2017 by the EU council
• AS AD on HRC imports from China Approved by the EU Council June 9, 2017, (duties aligned under the Lesser duty rule with the AD duties to final level from 18.1% to 35.9%)
• AD on HRC imports from four additional countries – the European Commission announced in Oct‘17 fixed AD duties on imports of HRC (duties from €17.6/t to €96.5/t) from Brazil, Iran, Ukraine and Russia (Serbia excluded)
• AD investigation started in December 2016 on imports from China of Corrosion resistant steel (HDG non-auto) – final duties against China announced Dec’17 (duties from 17.2% to 27.9%)
Investments
Investments completed in 2017
• Calvert: Phase 2: Slab yard expansion Bay 5 Increase coil production from 4.6mt/pa to 5.3mt/pa (completed 2Q’17)
• Dofasco: increased shipments of galvanized sheets by ~130ktpy, along with improved mix and optimized cost (completed 2Q’17)
• Poland: Investment in the downstream operations: Increase of the HSM mill capacity by 0.9Mtpa
(completed 2Q’17)
Increasing the HDG capacity by 0.4Mtpa (completed 2Q’17)
Furthering our downstream capabilities for automotive and industrial applications
HDG2 Krakow
Calvert: Slab Yard bay 5
Dofasco galvanizing line
Continuous shift towards higher added value products26
Europe: UHSS Automotive Program
Investments to enhance UHSS capabilities
Upgrade of capabilities to produce new steels Fortiform® grades offer a 20% weight saving on identified application Commercial benefits of additional ~400kt UHSS (Ultra High Strength Steel)The project is executed in several sub projects in Gent cluster (Liège and Gent plants):Gent:• Upgrade of Gent HSM completed end 2016• Erection of new furnace for Gent HDG expected completion in 1Q’18Liège:• 1st step of annealing line transformation (cooling zone) - completed 3Q’15• JVD 1st trial coils were produced in 3Q’16• Second step of annealing line transformation - completed 1Q’17 • Remaining process optimizations & modifications on CAL expected completion in 1Q’18
New stand F1 in front of line –Gent HSM
Top rolls of new direct flaming furnace - Liege
27
Cooling water plant -Gent
Improving and growing high added value products
Indiana Harbor Plant
No. 3SP: New #2 Caster
• Investment features:
– new cooling bed; new cold saw; new gag press;
• Customer benefits:
– improved service in terms of lead time and reliability– highest quality for the most demanding grades & largest
sizes thanks to improved straightness and surfacequality
• Expected completion in 1Q 2018
28
ArcelorMittal Differdange: Investing in Grey mill: Modernization of rolling mill
• ArcelorMittal Differdange Grey Mill (Luxembourg) ranks among the leader for heavy and jumbo beams.
• It produces a unique portfolio of heavy sections. Contribute to some of the most prestigious landmarks over the world (ie. Manhattan skyline in New York)
• Aim to supply the most advanced structural steel products and solutions for construction and high rise buildings
• We are installing the largest straightener in the world for sections in Luxembourg
Roller straightener in pre-assembly stage
Freedom Tower‐New York
One Bank street construction: October 2017, U.K One Bank street after completion in 2018
29
Kryvyi Rih - New LF&CC 2&3
Kryvyi Rih investments to ensure sustainability & improve productivity
• Facilities upgrade to switch from ingot to continuous casting route; additional billets capacity of 290kt/y
• Industrial target: Step-by-step steel plant modernization with state-of-art technology:
– Product mix development
• Supportive target:
– Cost reduction
– Billet quality improvement for sustaining customers
– Better yield and productivity
• Project completion expected in 4Q’18
Entry section o Continuous Annealing Line
Site preparation for
LF&CC 2&3
<–>
AM Kryvyi Rih LF&CC 1
29
30
ArcelorMittal USA progressing with a “footprint optimization project” at Indiana Harbor
Indiana Harbor “footprint optimization project”:
• Current configuration uncompetitive structural changes required across all cost elements
• #1 aluminize, 84” hot strip mill (HSM), #5 continuous galvanizing line (CGL), and steel shop No.2 now idled; all planned asset consolidation now complete
• Planned investments totalling ~US$200m:
− New caster at No.3 steelshop installed & commissioned 4Q’16
− Restoration of 80” hot strip mill and IH finishing, and logistics ongoing
− Project completion expected in 2018
Indiana Harbor - USA Footprint
Indiana Harbor Plant 80”HSM: 5 Walking Beam Furnace No. 3SP: New Downcomer
No. 3SP: New #2 Caster
No. 3SP: New #2 Caster commissioning
31
ArcelorMittal Poland Sosnowiec - Wire Rod Mill modernization• Sosnowiec is a double strand rolling mill located in
Sosnowiec, Poland.
• The investment will introduce new and innovativetechniques for the production of high quality wire rod for highdemanding applications (automotive app., steel cords,welding wires, cold heading screws, suspension springs,special ropes)
• Detailed engineering for the installation of the newequipment is expected in 1H 2018
• Full project completion expected in 2019.
Investment features and benefits:
• New independent stands with motors & drives avoidingmaterial twisting
• Modernized finishing blocks for improvement of final productdiameter tolerance
• New state of art air & water cooling system with accurateprocess control
• Project implementation will result in increased productionof high quality wire rod for demanding applications.
Long products strategy to grow HAV grades
31
32
Mexico currently heavily reliant on imports of value-added steel; high growth expected
• US$1.0 billion three-year investment commitment
Construction of a new 2.5Mt hot strip mill initiated during late 4Q 2017
Investments to sustain the competitiveness of mining operations
Modernizing its existing asset base
Estimated ~$350m capex in 2018
• Enable full production capacity to be achieved and significantly enhance proportion of HAV mix
• Will benefit from Lázaro Cárdenas designation as one of 5 new Special Economic Zones in Mexico
• In-line with Action 2020 plan
Disciplined capital allocation focused on value driven strategic initiatives: Mexico HSM
ArcelorMittal Mexico:
• Current production 4Mt increasing to ~5.3Mt (2.5Mt flat; 1.8Mt long and 1Mt semi-finished slabs)
• Vertically integrated with flat and long product capabilities
• ArcelorMittal Lazaro Cardenas’s raw materials and slabs shipped through a dedicated port facility (Mexico’s largest bulk handling port)
32
AM USA expands surface critical capability at Burns Harbor to provide a sustained automotive footprint
Burns Harbor - New Walking Beam Furnaces
Burns Harbor Hot Mill - New Walking Beam Furnaces:
• Install 2 latest generation walking beam furnaces, including recuperators & stacks, building extension & foundations for new units
• Benefits associated to the project:• Hot rolling quality and productivity • Sustaining market position• Reducing energy consumption
• Project completion expected in 2021
33
Macro highlights
Source: *ArcelorMittal estimates ** Excludes tubular demand. ASC growth in 2017 in the US including pipes and tubes of +6.1%
Global steel demand for 2017
2017 ASC growth of +3.2%; positive outlook for 2018
3.5%
3.2%
5.4%
4.6%
1.5%
1.3%
Global
Brazil
EU28
US**
China
CIS
Global ASC 2017 v 2016*
35
• Global apparent steel consumption increased by +3.2% in 2017
• Healthy demand backdrop maintained in Europe and US
• China: Positive demand growth due to strength in automotive and machinery
• Brazil: Positive demand with growth in automotive offset by ongoing weakness in construction
• CIS: Reflecting stronger economic growth in Russia
ArcelorMittal ASC demand estimates 2017
36* Source: AISI, Eurofer and ArcelorMittal estimates; ** includes pipes and tubes
Global ASC rates
Global ASC improvement of +3.2% 2017 vs 2016
Global apparent steel consumption (ASC)* (million tonnes per month)
US and European apparent steel consumption (ASC)* (million tonnes per month)
• EU ASC +2.9% in 4Q’17 vs. 3Q’17• EU ASC +1.6% in 4Q’17 vs. 4Q’16• EU ASC +1.5% in 12M’17 vs. 12M’16
• US** ASC -5.2% in 4Q’17 vs. 3Q’17• US** ASC +6.3% in 4Q’17 vs. 4Q’16• US** ASC +6.1% in 12M’17 vs. 12M’16
• China ASC -5.9% in 4Q’17 vs. 3Q’17 • China ASC +1.7% in 4Q’17 vs. 4Q’16• China ASC +3.5% in 12M’17 vs. 12M’16
• Global ASC -3.9% in 4Q’17 vs. 3Q’17• Global ASC +2.6% in 4Q’17 vs. 4Q’16• Global ASC +3.2% in 12M’17 vs. 12M’16
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19 US EU28
(latest data point: Dec‐2017)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
China Developing ex-China Developed
(latest data point: Dec‐2017)
37* Source: US Census Bureau; ** Source: Markit and The American Institute of Architects
Construction markets in developed market
Construction growth accelerating in 2017
2017 housing permits increased to 3.9% from 2.0% in 2016, boding well for residential construction in 2018.
Although non-residential construction spending slowed in 2Q’17 - 3Q’17, it showed signs of recovery in 4Q’17.
Architecture Billings Index (ABI) for 2017 came in strong, with 10 out of 12 months reading >50 and 4Q’17 at 53.2.
Continued uncertainty over the ability of the new administration to pass an infrastructure bill means the pick-up in infrastructure spending delayed until 2019
US residential and non-residential construction indicators (SAAR) $bn*
Eurozone and US construction indicators**
United States
Europe
European construction accelerated to an estimated 3.5% in 2017 from 1.8% in 2016.
Growth in construction was led by Eastern European countries, particularly Poland and Hungary, with both growing double digits.
Overall, construction activity in 2017 was supported by the fastest GDP growth in a decade at 2.5% yoy.
Eurozone construction PMI now >50 for 14 months
200
300
400
500
600
700
Residential
Non residential
(latest data point: Nov‐2017)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65 Architecture Billings Index (USA)
Eurozone construction PMI
(latest data point: Dec‐2017)
38* Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, China Real Estate Index System (via Haver) and ArcelorMittal estimates; Source: NBS, CISA, WSA, Mysteel, ArcelorMittal Strategy estimates
China overview
China ASC demand grow 3.5% in 2017; more stable in 2018 with growth of -0.5% to +0.5%
GDP growth slowing gradually after a modest tightening of monetary conditions, as the government seeks to control financial risks but valuing stability, no major policy change
Non-financial corporate debt remains an issue (>150% of GDP), mainly SOE’s – therefore the government will continue to focus on capacity cuts of heavy industry to improve profitability and reduce environmental concerns
Despite slowing as expected in 3Q’17, real estate sales and new starts growth rebounded in Nov/Dec, potentially leading to stronger real estate demand in 2018
2018 ASC to be broadly stable with machinery helped by rising exports due to strong global demand and without a drag from declining construction
Chinese exports down over 30% in 2017; we expect production cuts to constrain exports in the short term
Inventories lower than usual due to policy restricted output
Crude steel finished production and inventory (mmt)
China construction % change YoY, (3mth moving av.)*China
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Residential floor space sold (6 month lag)
Residential floor space started
(latest data point: Nov‐2017)
0
5
10
15
20
25
35
45
55
65
75 Steel inventory at warehouses (RHS)
Steel inventory at mills (RHS)
Finished steel production (LHS)
(Latest data point: Dec‐2017)
39* Last source updated Jun 2017
** Source: WSA, Mysteel, ArcelorMittal Strategy estimates
Regional inventories
Inventory trends
German inventories (000 Mt)*
China service centre inventories** (Mt/mth) with ASC%
Brazil service centre inventories (000 Mt)
US service centre total steel inventories (000 Mt)
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Germany flat stocksMonths Supply (RHS) (latest data point: Jun 2017)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
5
10
15
20
25 Flat and long% of ASC (RHS)
(latest data point: Dec‐2017)
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400Flat stocks at service centres
Months Supply (RHS)(latest data point: Dec 2017)
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
USA (MSCI)
Months Supply (RHS)
(latest data point: Dec‐2017)
.
Daniel Fairclough – Global Head Investor [email protected]+44 207 543 1105
Hetal Patel – UK/European Investor [email protected]+44 207 543 1128
Valérie Mella – European/Retail Investor [email protected]+44 207 543 1156
Maureen Baker – Fixed Income/Debt Investor [email protected]+33 1 71 92 10 26
Lisa Fortuna – US Investor [email protected]+312 899 3985
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