Fuel efficiency of light duty vehicles in India ... · 1/29/2008 · Slide 4 > Fuel efficiency of...

> Fuel efficiency of light duty vehicles in India: Uncertainties in transforming stock

>28.01.2008

Fuel efficiency of light duty vehicles in India: Uncertainties in transforming stock

Workshop onNew energy indicators for transport: The way forward

IEA/ ITF, 28 - 29 January 2008, Paris

Suman BaidyaGerman Aerospace Centre -Transportation Studies, Berlin


>28.01.2008

Outline1. Vehicle types in India

2. India in the global context: Fuel consumption by road transportation

3. Vehicle stock development

4. Fuel consumption in Future

5. Fuel efficiency of LDV: Measurements, bottom up stock average

6. Actions and challenges in the future

7. Conclusions


>28.01.2008

1. Vehicle types on roads in India

Scooter Motorcycle Auto-rickshaw

Passenger car Jeep (SUV)

Motorized two wheelers Motorized three wheelers

Freight three wheeler

Light duty truck (≤3.5 t)

Phot

os b

ySu

man

Bai

dya

(y20

06 a

nd y

2007

, Loc

atio

ns: D

elhi

, Agr

a, P

une

and

Jaip

ur)

Light duty vehicles (this presentation)


>28.01.2008

1. Vehicle types on roads in India- 2Medium and heavy duty vehicles

Bus

Mini (Medium duty) trucks (3.5-7.5 t) Heavy duty trucks >7.5 tPhotos by Suman Baidya (y2006 and y2007, Locations: Delhi, Agra, Pune, and Jaipur)


>28.01.2008

2. India in the global context

y2000 already old for India and ChinaFuel consumption (road, year 2000) : 2.3% of global total

CO2 emissions (road) by world regions, y2000

Comparison of per capita CO2 emissions by LDV, y2000, India=1

Per capita LDV very low in India (lower level of motorization, small cars, and lower mileage)

Sour

ce: B

orke

n et

al.,

200

7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Population CO2

% of world

AFR

MEA

LAM

SEA

EAS

SAS

CIS

CEC

OCN

JPN

EU15

NAM1.0

2.5 2.1

258.8

88.2 68.8

1

10

100

1000

India China Kenya USA Germany Japan

LDV

India+

China+


>28.01.2008

3. Stock development in India

Two and half decades of rapid growth of vehicle sales

Vehicle sales in India (domestic)

in million

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Number of M2W =5*scale

Car+JeepLCVH&MCVM3WM2W/5

Self calculation

based on SIAM, 2006


>28.01.2008

4. Fuel consumption in India: y2005 - y2020

Future: Huge potential for growth in road transportation → Major energy consumer:

increased global competition for fossil fuels

→ Major emitter: both air pollutants and greenhouse gases

High growth scenario A1: High growth rates of LDV and HDT (vkm and fuel) in (~SRES 2000_A1)

Scenario A1

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mtoe TractorHeavy duty truckLight duty truckBusMotorized two wheelerMotorized three wheelerCar

Source: Baidya, 2007


>28.01.2008

5.1 Fuel efficiencies of light duty vehicles: General

Recent developments in India:Fuel efficiency database by Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI), PuneReal world emission/fuel consumption measurement: Central Institute of Road Transport (CIRT), Pune / EU project QUANTIFY

Definition:Fuel consumption rate= fuel consumed / vehicle kilometres travelled (i.e. l/100km)Estimation of fuel efficiencies

Lab (regulation) cycle vs. real worldPoint/ single vehicle measurement vs aggregate stock estimateNew vehicles vs. average stockBase values vs. corrected values (e.g. load, slope)


>28.01.2008

5.2 Fuel efficiencies of light duty vehicles: New vehicles

1. ARAI test results State of the art results for India: for BS I, II, and III (New vehicles); by engine size and fuel typeGeneral impression: large variation ; fuel efficiency differ by engine sizeUsability: regulatory test cycle, lacks time development and detailed information

Max: 22.8

German Cars: registered in y2005

Passenger Cars, Petrol, Euro-III

4

6

8

10

12

14

<1.0

1.0-

1.4

1.4-

1.6

>1.6

Engine Size (l)

Fuel

Con

sum

ptio

n (l/

100k

m) India Maximum

India AverageIndia MinimumGerman(new)- Petrol

Passenger Cars, Diesel, Euro-III

4

6

8

10

12

14

<1.0

1.0-

1.4

1.4-

1.6

>1.6

Engine Size (l)

Fuel

Con

sum

ptio

n (l/

100k

m)

<1.4L

1.4-2 L

>2 L


>28.01.2008

5.2 Fuel efficiencies of light duty vehicles: Real world measurements

`

101 201 301 401 501 601 701 801 901 1001 1101Time [s]

Spee

d [k

m/h

]

NEDCPune Real World

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2. On road vs certification test performancesVehicle characteristics: age, Inspection & Maintenance etc.Real world versus certification cycles: Pune real world DC (CIRT,2007)

Sharp acceleration and deceleration in India => Higher FC!!Driving Cycles Accavg (m/s2) %time in Acc %time in Acc

< 1 m/s2

%time in Acc > 1 m/s2

ECE-15 0.65 21.6 21.6 0

ECE-15+EUDC 0.54 18.3 18.3 0

Pune (CIRT) 1.85 14.4 7.3 7.1

Comparison between Pune real world DC and NEDC

Source:

CIRT Pune, Sep. 2007


>28.01.2008

5.3 Stock and mileage of LDV: Modelling age structure

Circulating vehicle stock and VKM composition: NEW results!!25%-28% diesel cars in 2005More than half mileage by ≤ 4years old (Lab FC data available), Other half: source of uncertainty!Low but rapidly increasing number of LDT

Vehicle Stock in y2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Car & SUV,Petrol

Car & SUV,Diesel

LDT

Million Till 19901991-19951996-20002001-2005

Vehicle_km in y2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Car & SUV,Petrol

Car & SUV,Diesel

LDT

Billion Till 19901991-19951996-20002001-2005


>28.01.2008

5.3 Fuel efficiencies of cars : Stock average

Dynamic but uncertain stock average values Future => Tata-Nano effect and LDTs??

Usability (literature values):accuracy/ transparency (top down?)representativeness (about 70% car and SUV outside mega-cities)petrol vehicles: averages almost fit to German cars

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005

Petrol Diesel

l /100kmKarim, 1999 ; Dhaka

Shrestha and Malla, 1996; Kathmandu

Singh, 2006; India

Padam and Singh,2001 ;urban India

Bose, 1998; Delhi

Mittal and Sharma,2003; India

TERI, 2001; Delhi

Bose and Nesamani, 2001, minimum

Bose and Nesamani, 2001, maximum

Borken et al., 2006; South Asia

Baidya, 2007; India maximum

Baidya, 2007; India minimum

HBEFA, 2004; Germany Ø-Urban

Bottom up calculation

(LDT)


>28.01.2008

5.4 Higher fuel economy: Actions and challenges in futureDiscussions/debates

Fuel economy regulationsPossible/Sensible? <= ARAI data shows variationsWho? => Energy Conservation Act, PCRA/UMiPNG and BEE/UMiPStructure? => Simple but effective, Target new vehicles or stock average?Targets and Timing? => Vehicle categories, lags for phases and ‘best practices’, Target values for 2010, 2020??

Other challenges/ barriersRegulated oil priceTrade off: more stringent emission norms vs. fuel economy Monitoring: baseline data (fuel efficiency)Enforcement: inspection and maintenance systemShrinking share of mini carsRapid dieselization of cars: fuel efficiency gain vs air pollution/social impactsFreight transportation in urban areas: understudied


>28.01.2008

6. Conclusions

Monitoring fuel efficiency standards can provide data for:Spatially differentiated traffic activity dataReal world fuel economy

Hierarchy of actions (fuel security/ energy independence): Development in traffic volume (vkm)> Improvements in fuel efficiency > Alternative fuels

(Higher technical potential??)

Different degrees of challenges for stakeholders!!

Fuel economy improvement (LDV)Link policy targets on auto industry, air quality control (diesel cars), and fuel efficiencyImportant: on road performance (older and larger vehicles), light duty trucks Trend: substitution of more fuel efficient vehicles (e.g. motorcycles to mini car, increasing avg. size/power) vs. FE improvement

} Future(s) also


>28.01.2008

References

Baidya, S., 2007. Trace gas and particulate matter emissions from road transportation in India: Quantification of current and future levels, uncertainties, and sensitivity analysis. Universität Stuttgart, Germany. (PhD dissertation, unpublished).

Marathe, S.R. and Chaudhari, M.K., 2007. Overview of fuel efficiency of Indian fleet. International seminar on ‘Setting fuel economy standards and labeling of transport vehicles’. 6-7th December 2007, Chennai.

Centre for Science and Environment, 2007. Fuel economy regulations: Setting the principles right. New Delhi.(Draft)

SIAM, 2006. The Indian automobile industry: Statistical profile 2005-2006. Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, New Delhi.

Central Institute of Road Transport (CIRT), 2007. Development of real world driving cycles for emission measurements by CIRT, Pune. Workshop on ‘Development of transport industry in India, future transport scenarios and emissions’. 28th September, 2007, Pune. (Presentation by Ms. Sanghpriya)

Borken, J., Steller, H., Meretei, T., and Vanhove, F., 2007. Global and country inventory of road passenger and freight transportation, their fuel consumption and their emissions of air pollutants in the year 2000. Transportation Research Records: Journal of the Transportation Research Board.

HBEFA, 2004. Handbuch für Emissionsfaktoren des Strassenverkehrs (HBEFA, Version 21) UmweltbundesamtBerlin, Umweltbundesamt, Wien, Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, Bern, Infras AG, Bern (CD-ROM).

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