Name __________________________________________________________Date_______________Per______ST#______

Hurricanes

A. Start with this site: http://spaceplace.nasa.gov/hurricanes/en/

1. What is a Tropical Depression? (look it up)

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2. What is a Tropical Storm? (question 2 and the rest of the answers are in link I provided before question 1)

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3. What characteristics does a storm need to have to be considered a hurricane?

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4. Where do hurricanes get their energy?

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5. Based on your answer to the prior questions, why dont we get hurricanes in Michigan?

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6. You should know which type of weather comes with high pressure and which type of weather comes with low pressure. What pressure should a hurricane have? Explain your answer.

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7. Whats another term for a hurricane? ____________________________________________________

8. What do they call hurricanes in the Indian Ocean? _________________________________________

9. What do they call hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean? _________________________________________

10. Fill out the following chart for the categories of hurricanes.

Category

Wind Speed (mph)

Damage at Landfall

Storm Surge (feet)

1

Minimal

4-5

2

96-110

6-8

3

111-130

Extensive

4

13-18

5

Over 155

Catastrophic

11. What do the Spaghetti models for hurricanes represent? (scroll down a bit on cyclocane site to read this info) Use this website: http://www.cyclocane.com/spaghetti-models/ (all info about hurricane model codes: http://stormfacts.net/models.htm )

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12. What is the cone of probability and why does it get wider and wider as you move toward the top of the screen in the images in the article on page 14 of this document?

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13. Hurricane Isabel travelled as a big rainstorm all the way to Michigan in 2003, how likely were the remnants of hurricane Jaoquin to come to Michigan? Explain your answer in terms of the probability cone shown in the picture below question #18.

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14. Stop this video (http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-hurricane-joaquin-atlantic-east-coast-2015 ) at the 3-4 second spot and make a note of the pressure in mb and inches (use a converter like: http://www.csgnetwork.com/pressinmbcvt.html ), as well as the wind speed for hurricane Joaquin well over a week after it first formed. Is that high or low pressure? What category is the hurricane at that speed?

mb: ________________________ inches: ________________________wind speed: ___________________

high or low pressure?______________________________________________________________________

category of the hurricane?___________________________________________________________________

B. Fill in the following chart and explain why the numbers get larger as you move down the chart. Think back to earlier parts of this exercise to help form your answer. (Taken from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml )

15. Explanation: ___________________________________________________________________________

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Forecast Period

(Hours)

2/3 Probability Circle, Atlantic Basin (nautical miles)

2/3 Probability Circle, Eastern North Pacific Basin(nautical miles)

12

32

24

52

42

36

54

48

90

122

100

96

143

120

225

16. As you look above the NHC forecast circles data chart on the web page, what percent of the time does it indicate that the entire track of any forecasted hurricane will remain entirely within the cone? (they did this on purpose why?)

Percent: _________________Why? __________________________________________________________

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17. Propose a hypothesis for the difference in size of the 2/3 probability circles generated for the Pacific and Atlantic basins.

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18. Look at the Example Graphic of 5-Day Track Forecast Cone shown on the website and/or the one for hurricane Joaquin shown below and explain why its not useful to go past 5 days:

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Hurricane Joaquin Storm Center

Click image to zoom in Download GIS data Other images:5-Day track on3-Day track on3-Day track offInteractive

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/093717.shtml?5-daynl#contents )

19. Look back at the 5-Day Track Forecast Cone and explain why the cone/hurricane (and most Atlantic hurricanes) first moves to the west, and then ultimately curves to the right. In your answer, use the following map, knowing that it covers from 15 to 35 degrees North (We live at about 42 degrees North): http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/wwhlpr/hurricane_globalwinds.rxml

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20. Use the website for the previous question to define the following:

A. Polar Easterlies: From 60-_______ degrees latitude.

B. Prevailing Westerlies: From 30-60 degrees _______________ (aka ________________).

C. Tropical Easterlies: From 0-__________ degrees latitude (aka Trade Winds). Why were these

winds called the Trade Winds? __________________________________________

21. Now look at these wind patterns and explain how they relate to the typical patterns you saw in the prior question: http://earth.nullschool.net/ (Click on Earth and choose 10 hPa to view the best winds)

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22. Where do most Atlantic hurricanes originate? (we talked about it in class, 7th graders may need some 8th grade help)

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23. What happens (or doesnt happen) in the eye of a hurricane? (look it up, or just think about it)

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24. There are two patterns in modern hurricane names: Look at this site and figure out the patterns:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp (answers are in a drop-down menu on the RHS)

A. ____________________________________________________________________________________

B. ____________________________________________________________________________________

25. How fast does a typical Atlantic hurricane go for its forward speed? (not wind speed, but actual forward motion) http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G16.html

0- 35N (average of the numbers in the chart)__________________________________________________

35-60N (average of the numbers in the chart) _________________________________________________

Wow! Note in the paragraph below the chart that it indicates the maximum speeds are nearly 70mph when the hurricanes get caught in a low-pressure trough.

26. In which hemisphere of the earth is the hurricane pictured to the right most likely to be found? Explain how you know.

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27. What part of the world was the El Nio weather pattern originally describing? Read What is El Nino which comes up automatically at the start of this site: (https://www.wildlife.ca.gov/Conservation/Marine/El-Nino#26072336-what-is-el-nio)

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28. Same site as previous question: What is ENSO?

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29. Now that we recognize El Nio as having worldwide impacts, what does it do in terms of our weather in Michigan? (http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/08/el_nino_could_make_this_winter.html )

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30. We should know El Nios impact on hurricane frequency. Look at the data chart and explain what the data would lead you to believe about named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific: http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/enso.rxml

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31. What does the El Nio weather pattern do to reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic?

Ill help you with this one Look at the pictures under the data chart from the previous question and you will see info about wind shear having an impact on the hurricanes thats the info you need to describe here (and then draw for question #32): _______________________________________________________________________________________

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32. Use the space below to draw a picture of the wind shears change to the hurricanes in El Nio years:

(END OF DAY 2)

33. Look at the hurricane prediction for the next few days by clicking in the dots on the cone of probability. http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane-central/joaquin-2015/AL112015 What type of storm is it and what strength is the storm today (7 Oct), and what type of storm is it expected to be and what is its strength expected to be when it nears land in England?

Type of storm today:____________________________________ Strength________________________

Type of storm as it nears England:_________________________________________________________

34. Use the chart you created earlier in this exercise, or this site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php to get the information for the Saffir-Simpson hurricane strength scale and to compare it to the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale for measuring tornadoes, http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ohx/EF-Ratings.png

Hurricane

Category

Hurricane

Wind Speed (mph)

Hurricane

Damage at Landfall

Tornado

Category

Tornado Wind Speeds

Tornado Expected Damage

EF-0

1

Minimal

EF-1

2

96-110

3

111-130

Extensive

4

5

Over 155

Catastrophic

EF-5

35. Look at this article comparing hurricane Sandy to Joaquin. Explain what a wind field is. http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/10/01/hurricane-joaquin-sandy/73153062/

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36. On the back of this page, use the cone of probability from the article in the previous question and the article used in question 33 to compare the original Joaquin prediction to the current prediction.

(You just ended day 3, the rest of this is for LATER)

Effect of Atmospheric Circulation on Climate

READ THIS SECTION

Link to the main page for entire lesson: http://www.ck12.org/user:a2VpdGhfYmFsZHdpbkBjY3BzbmV0Lm5ldA../book/CK-12-Earth-Science-Concepts-For-Middle-School/section/7.18/

Link for the part that answers the first six questions (37-42): Atmospheric Circulation Cells at http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/eoc/middle_school_t/teachers/earth/sp_atmosphere/p_atmo_circulation_composite.html

NOTE: When you look at the pages in this section, you will need to click on the timeline under the earths atmosphere model to move from sub-page to sub-page.

ALSO IMPORTANT! There are little arrows at the ends of some of the paragraphs that allow you to highlight the part of the diagram that answers/explains that part of the animation.

37. What is the atmosphere?

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38. How are winds named?

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39. What happens where surface winds converge?

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40. What occurs where surface winds diverge?

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41. What is the ITCZ? How does it change with the seasons?

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42. What is air pressure? How does it vary by latitude?

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Review (Last 3 questions from Exercise 7.18):

1. What are prevailing winds? How do they affect climate?

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2. Where is there not much wind?

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3. How do atmospheric circulation cells affect precipitation?

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(At this point, I should use the practice tab on the main page to run a quiz.)

A bunch of info about hurricanes - helps with question #12

Respect the Cone: Hurricane Forecasts Explained

http://thevane.gawker.com/respect-the-cone-hurricane-forecasts-explained-1614750412 Dennis Mersereau

Around this time every year, hurricane forecast maps pop up all over television and the internet, but your friendly neighborhood weatherman rarely has enough time to explain the forecasts to you. Here's what those hurricane forecast maps mean.

Basic Information

Every hurricane forecast map includes a legend that tells viewers crucial facts about the storm. The most important facts in the legend are usually the wind speed and direction of movement. The wind speed tells you the strongest sustained wind within the storm in this case, Bertha had 50 MPH winds at the 2PM advisory. That doesn't mean that the winds are 50 MPH throughout the entire storm, just in the strongest part.

Watches and Warnings - On maps created for The Vane, the legend will also include a text listing of watches and warnings in effect as of that advisory, if any.

Watches and warnings are usually denoted by color-coded shading along the coastline of the landmasses impacted by the storm. As a general rule of thumb, everyone in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific use the National Hurricane Center's yellow/blue/pink/red color coding. These watches and warnings often extend farther inland than just the coast.

A tropical storm/hurricane watch means that tropical storm/hurricane conditions are possible within the next 48 hours

A tropical storm/hurricane warning means that tropical storm/hurricane conditions are possible within the next 36 hours.

The map above shows the watches and warnings in effect this afternoon for the Antilles in advance of Tropical Storm Bertha.

The Cone of Uncertainty (Cone of Probability)

The cone of uncertainty is the most important part of a hurricane forecast map. The cone shows you where the center of the storm may wind up at any point within the forecast period (usually 5 days).

Weather forecasting is still an inexact science, and hurricane forecasting is even less certain. The cone of uncertainty accounts for the historical margin of error in the National Hurricane Center's forecast track. The points on a forecast map are timed out every 12 hours, so the margin of error increases in 12-hour increments. The margin of error is measured with circles radiating out from the forecast location of the storm's center, and then smoothed, creating the "cone" that everyone is familiar with.

The easiest way to understand the cone of uncertainty is to remember that, historically, the center of a tropical cyclone stays inside the cone of uncertainty 66% of the time. The center moved so far away from the forecaster's predicted path that it fell outside of the cone 33% (well, I guess it'd be 34%) of the time.

For example, at the 24-hour mark, the National Hurricane Center's historical margin of error is 52 nautical miles. This means that 66% of the time, the actual location of the center of the storm wound up within 52 nautical miles of the NHC's predicted location. This also means that 34% of the time, the center wound up outside of that 52-nautical-mile circle.

Last night when Tropical Storm Bertha formed,I mentionedthat there was a slight threat that the storm could impact the eastern United States, as the cone of uncertainty covered about a hundred miles of coastline across North Carolina. As the map at the top of this post shows, that forecast has since shifted, steering the storm out to sea, but it's still worth keeping an eye on.

For a historical example, Hurricane Isaac from 2012 shows us the importance of the cone of uncertainty, as well as a great reminder that the center winds up outside of the cone about 33% of the time.

Isaac was a notoriously hard storm for forecasters to predict. I lived in Mobile at the time and the center's predicted path came straight over us for several days, but the storm wound up making landfall in Louisiana.

Speaking of which, that brings us to the next major aspect of hurricane forecasts.

The Center's Predicted Path

When maps show the line stretching through the middle of the cone of uncertainty, that's the forecaster's predicted path for thecenter of the storm. The eye. The tropical storm and hurricane force winds, storm surge, heavy rains, and tornadoes can extend hundreds of miles away from the center of the storm. Just because the center of Hurricane Arthur last month missed Wilmington, North Carolina, it didn't save the city from getting a good wallop. Even though the center of Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to graze the southwestern coast of Puerto Rico, the northeastern side of the island is still under a Tropical Storm Warning.

The winds around the center of a tropical storm or hurricane are usually most intense, but the cyclone's adverse effects can extend well beyond the center. Case in point: Hurricane Sandy.

Just before Sandy made landfall and completed its transition from a hurricane to an extratropical cyclone, its wind field was absolutely enormous. Even though the center made landfall in New Jersey, its tropical storm force winds extended from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to Bangor, Maine, and its hurricane force winds stretched from Atlantic City, New Jersey down through Virginia.

Sandy is an extreme case, but it perfectly illustrates the fact that the center's path isn't always the entire story.

As we head into the peak of hurricane season this month and next, keep these points in mind when you watch The Weather Channel or see someone on social media post those hurricane forecast maps. Understanding these maps is the difference between staying informed and panicking (or, even worse, a false sense of security).

[Map of Hurricane Sandy by the NHC, all other graphics created by the auth

Q- How/when does a hurricane turn into a "extratropical cyclone"???

A. To oversimplify it, when a tropical cyclone loses its characteristics and starts developing fronts, that's when it goes from tropical to extratropical. Most low pressure systems that affect the U.S. are extratropical cyclones they have fronts and are driven by the jet stream rather than thunderstorms around their center.

Q I thought "cyclone" was the name for hurricanes in part of the southern hemisphere, what gives?

A. A cyclone is just a low pressure system. Around Australia, they call hurricanes "cyclones," but the word "cyclone" is the universal term for any type of low pressure system.

Article for question #35 Comparing Sandy to Joaquin:

Hurricane Joaquin: Does it compare to Sandy? Doyle Rice, USA TODAY4:23 p.m. EDT October 1, 2015

(Photo: NOAA, EPA)

Hurricane Joaquin's forecasted track appears eerily similar to the onecatastrophic Sandy took in October 2012. So, should we be worried?

In a word, no. Even though Joaquin is currently in the same part of the Atlantic Ocean as Sandy was and is slamming the Bahamas, the latest forecast Thursday indicates the hurricanecould be headed out to sea.

Even if it stayed near the coast, Sandy's "wind field" was much larger than Joaquin's. The wind field is the area of tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph.

USA TODAY Hurricane Joaquin batters Bahamas as U.S. braces for 'historic' floods

Sandy's wind field was roughly 1,000 miles in diameter before hitting New Jersey, while Joaquin's is now roughly 230 miles, the Weather Channel reported.

Sandy's wind field (in orange) was much larger than Joaquin's is today. (Photo: National Hurricane Center / The Weather Channel)

In addition, storm surge did most of the damage with Sandy, while Joaquin's threat appears to be from heavy rain and floods, especially in the Southeast. Sandy pushed huge mounds of sea water onto the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastlines, doing colossal damage to homes and property.

Torrential rain fueled in part by tropical moisture from Joaquin will fall over a much larger area and population than Sandy did, according to the Weather Channel.Catastrophic flooding is possible in the Carolinas and Virginia this weekend, AccuWeather reported.

One similarity between the two storms seems to be a more accurate forecast from the European computer model, one of many meteorologists use to forecast the weather. In both storms, the European computer model did a better job of forecasting the actual track of the storm than did the top American model.

In 2012, the European model accurately predicted the unusual left hook that Sandy eventually took into New Jersey. This time around, itwas the lone model that predicted Joaquin would slide out to sea, as other models are now picking up on. Still, the storm's track could change over the next couple days.

The track of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012. (Photo: AccuWeather)

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