From noble global goals to confused local strategies -Solutions to a wicked development problem

Michael ObersteinerEcosystem Services and Management ProgramIIASA

IIASA Conference 2012October 25th, 2012Hofburg, Vienna

Managing Planetary Boundaries

2Rockstroem, 2009

40 years IIASA

GLOal BIOsphere Management Model

SUPPLY

Process

DEMAND

Wood products Food Bioenergy

G4M

Exogenous driversPopulation growth, economic growth

Primary wood

products Crops

PROCESS

Biophysical

modelsSimulation

Unit

Homogenous

Response

Units (HRU)

28 regions

40 years IIASA

2050 - Planetary Goals and Land Use

4

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Shrubland

Grassland

SRP

Forest

CroplandMill

ion

hec

tars

5

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0

500

1000

1500

2000Baseline

Climate

Land useBiodiversity

ALL & Diet

Water use (km3/yr)

0

25

50

75

100

0

25

50

75

100Baseline

Climate

Land useBiodiversity

ALL & Diet

Nitrogen fixation (Mt/yr)

0

5

10

15

20

0

5

10

15

20Baseline

Climate

Land useBiodiversity

ALL & Diet

Phosphorus use (Mt/yr)

0

3

6

9

12

0

3

6

9

12Baseline

Climate

Land useBiodiversity

ALL & Diet

GHG emissions (GtCO2/yr)

40 years IIASA

Conclusion

• Co-benefits from policy co-ordination• Policy is not enough• Need for transformative new technologies

6

Land cover uncertainty

Land Acquisition Area

(from Land Matrix Database)

Clear Evidence of Settlements (from Geo-Wiki

Hackathon)

=Areas

of Conflict

`

http://hackathon.geo-wiki.org

IIASA conference competitionLaunch: Friday, 26th Oct. 8:30

Economic value of land cover information?

13

Expected Value of Information

10%

> 2 bill. $

$