From Hoverboards to Lift trucks: What you need to know ...
Transcript of From Hoverboards to Lift trucks: What you need to know ...
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From Hoverboards to Lift trucks: What you need to know about Lithium-ion batteries
Presented by:
EnerSys
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Presenter
Joern TinnemeyerChief Technical Officer and Senior Vice PresidentEnerSys
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Hoverboard Accidents Send 27K Kids to the Hospital in 2 Years
New research shows nearly 27,000 kids were sent to
emergency departments from 2015 though 2016
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A Lithium Solution for Forklifts?
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Growing Market Share
2014
$49BUSD
2025E
$112BUSD
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Evolution: Adoption Status
Awareness Trial
& Early
Adopters
Mass Market Saturation
Time
Ad
op
tio
n R
ate
2 ½%5%
10%15%
2018
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0.00
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0.25
0.30
Norway Sweden France UK SouthKorea
China NewZealand
Canada Germany Japan Australia USA
ICE BEV Gap
Vehicle Energy Cost (USD per mile)
Economic Drivers
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How does it work?
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Yesterday Today
Limited Success to Date for Industrial Lithium
x Most cells produced economically
were small format
Extensive usage of large format cells
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Yesterday Today
Limited Success to Date for Industrial Lithium
x Most cells produced economically
were small format
Extensive usage of large format cells
x Limited variation available – only
consumer LCO was produced at high
volume
Advanced NMC with high energy
density
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Lithium Distribution
NMC33%
LCO 14%
LFP 38%
LMO6%
NCA9%
NMC48%
LCO16%
LFP 16%
NMO11%
NCA9%
Cathode active materials 2017:
>250,000 TonsCathode active materials 2025:
600,000 Tons
Source: Avicenne 2018
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Lithium Distribution
NMC33%
LCO 14%
LFP 38%
LMO6%
NCA9%
NMC48%
LCO16%
LFP 16%
NMO11%
NCA9%
Cathode active materials 2017:
>250,000 TonsCathode active materials 2025:
875,000 Tons
Source: Avicenne 2018
NMC70%
LCO 6%
LFP 15%
NMO 1%
NCA 8%
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Limited Success to Date for Industrial Lithium
Yesterday Todayx Most cells produced economically
were small format
Extensive usage of large format cells
x Limited variation available – only
consumer LCO was produced at high
volume
Advanced NMC with high energy
density
x 18650 cell cost was valued at 300
USD/KWh
Automotive OEMs are pushing the
battery industry to offer increasingly
lower pricing
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Effects of New Technologies
Typical LA: (30-40) Wh/Kg
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Lithium Price Evolution
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025
En
erg
y D
en
sit
y (
Wh
/Kg
)
Year
Energy Density (Wh/Kg)
• Continuous increase in
energy density
• Technology transition from
NMC(111)->NMC(811) for
the cathode
• Anode natural carbon ->
synthetic carbon with SiOx
additive
• Solid state cells
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Lithium Price Evolution
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1 2 3 4 5
No
rma
lize
d U
nit
Co
st
Year
Unit Cost
• Same package content,
price will stay relatively
similar
• Energetic high Ni content
may require enhanced
safety cost
• Does not consider size
optimization
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Lithium Price Evolution
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2017 2018 2019 2020 2025
No
rma
lize
d C
os
t
En
erg
y D
en
sit
y (
Wh
/Kg
)
Year
Energy Density (Wh/Kg)
Unit Cost
Normalized KWh Cost ($/Kwh)
• Impact of changes in
cell technology alone
will cause cost ($/KWh)
to fall by 50% in the next
7 years
• Safety, production
capability and cycle life
will continue to improve
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The Price Estimate is Conservative!
“We have pricing of $145/KWh
at the cell level”- GM, Oct 23, 2015
“Our pack costs will be less
than $100/KWh by 2020”- Lei Zhang, Envision Energy, Dec 4, 2018
“We think at the cell level probably
we can do better than $100/KWh by
the end of the year”- Elon Musk, Tesla, June 1, 2018
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Yesterday Today
Limited Success to Date for Industrial Lithium
x Most cells produced economically
were small format
Extensive usage of large format cells
x Limited variation available – only
consumer LCO was produced at high
volume
Advanced NMC with high energy
density
x 18650 cell cost was valued at 345
USD/KWh
Automotive OEMs are pushing the
battery industry to offer increasingly
lower pricing
x Safety strategy primitive with limited
monitoring
Functional safety hardware topology
complying with ISO26262 coupled with
enhanced cell safety designs
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Safe Design through Layers
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Mechanical Safety System
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Internal Pressure
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Application Level Software
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FuSa Layer
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ASIL (Automotive Safety Integrity Level)Low High
A B C D
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Cell Layer
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Safety of NMC
Poor Test Good Test
LFP NMC
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Test Item Test Condition Hazard Level
Over Charge • 100% SoC, RT
• 1C charge 1h or voltage of one cell reaches 1.5 times of charged
end voltage
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Over Discharge • 100% SoC, RT
• 1C DC 90 min, rest 60 min
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Nail • 100% SoC, RT
• Nail Diameter: 8mm, velocity 25+/- 5m/s, through cell
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Crush • 100% SoC, RT
• Crush head: 75mm, crush to 30% displacement or 0V or crush
force reaches 200 KN
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Hot Box • 100% SoC, RT
• Heating from RT to 130+/- 2oC at a rate 5oC/min. Keep
temperature for 30 min
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Short • 100% SoC, RT
• External resistance<5mΩ, hold for 10 min
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Drop • 100% SoC, RT
• 1.5m height to concrete floor with terminals downward, 1h rest
2
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Yesterday Today
Limited Success to Date for Industrial Lithium
x Most cells produced economically
were small format
Extensive usage of large format cells
x Limited variation available – only
consumer LCO was produced at high
volume
Advanced NMC with high energy
density
x 18650 cell cost was valued at 345
USD/KWh
Automotive OEMs are pushing the
battery industry to offer increasingly
lower pricing
x Safety strategy primitive with limited
monitoring
Functional safety hardware topology
complying with ISO26262 coupled with
enhanced cell safety designs
x Low cyclic capability increases cost of
ownership and limits applications
High cyclic capability (+5000) at 75%
BoL @ 80% DoD
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Cycle Life
Test Condition: 25°C/45°C 2.8V~4.13V(0%~95%SOC),
1C/1C CycleTest Condition: 45°C, Diff. DOD 1C/1C Cycle
Cap
ac
ity R
ete
nti
on
Cap
ac
ity R
ete
nti
on
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
25°C 45°C
25/45°C 1C/1C Cycle @ 0%~95%SOC
Cycle
105%
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
105%
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
90%SOC 95%SOC 100%SOC
45°C 1C/1C @ Diff. DOD wt 3000N
Cycle
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
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Recycling
LFP?
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Recycling
Raw Material
Circular Ladder Use
Cell
General
Module
Pack
General
Module
ESS
Cell Recycle
Gro
up
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For more information
Joern Tinnemeyer: [email protected]
Website: www.enersys.com
Visit ProMat Booth S612
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