Four scenarios on sustainable lifestyles towards 2050

From global champions to local loops

Maria Ritola / Demos HelsinkiPresentation in theater Festival Homo Alibi, Riga 29.-31.8.2012

However, we should aim here.

Emissions -80 %

Energy consumption

Economy

Standard of living

Wellbeing

2012 2050

Lähde: VNK, Tulevaisuusselonteko 2009

Future can be anticipated, because we know...

1. the investments done.2. people’s plans and hopes for the future.3. that the population structure is

changing slowly.4. habits and traditions of different

cultures.5. that there are and linear natural

processes.

Typical challenges:

1.Black swans remain undetected

2.We forget the problems of the current system

3.Themes that we personally are interested in take control over big issues.

Question:

What are the big issues?

1. The individual

2. Peak everything

3. Use of time

1. The individual

1.Individuals want a voice 2.Mass production doesn’t

satisfy the need3.The voice can be provided

through new services “the next phase of capitalism”

There’s no such a thing as average.Social media created a new right to vote.

Collaborative consumption is here. User becomes the creator.

2. Use of time

The whole world will be old.

’

Työ UniSleep Work

8.00 17.30 22.30

Freetime

FreetimeSleep

8.00 17.30 22.30

how do we spend the freetime?

An average Finn watches the television nearly three

hours per day.

If, instead, we would write Wikipedia, there would be

52 Wikipedias by now with all the 282 language

versions done by us.

3. Peak everything

A shift in paradigm?

Source: GMO as of 2/28/2011

Source: BBC

Sustainable lifestyles by 2050?

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Sustainable level 2050: 8 tons

• counted per each European

• that is ca. 20 kg per day

• Also called ‘ecological backbag’ – today we carry over 100 kg per day!

20502012

Sustainable level of 8 tons

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How much is a ton? 27 tons?

• 500 km alone in a car 13 700 km

• 3000 km public transport 82 100 km

• 6 m2 warm living space 164 m2

• 100 kg meatballs 2737 kg

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

Super ChampsGoverning the

Commons

Local LoopsEmpathetic

Communities

Super Champs and Empathetic Communities

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

... in terms of lifestyles it means:

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

Local Loops andGoverning the Commons

To eliminate the concept of

waste means to design

things –!products,

packaging, and systems

–!from the very beginning on

the understanding that

waste does not exist

Cradle-to-Cradle

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

... in terms of lifestyles it means:

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

People’s role in decision making typically depicted in the society

In the scenarios there’s a variety of roles

Niche level

Promising practice II

Promising practice III

Promising practice IV

Promising practice V Promising

practice VII

Promising practice VI

Promising practice I

Multilevel model of social innovation

Embedding Multiplying Up scaling

Markets, Science, Policies

Markets, Science, Policie Markets, Science,

Policies

Regime level

Landscape level

Societal values, overall paradigms, megatrends

Thanks!Maria Ritola

twitter: @mariaritolamaria.ritola@demos.fi

www.demos.fiwww.slideshare.fi/demoshelsinki