From Diversity Comes Innovation and Growth Social, Generational and Broader Demographic Matters in...

From Diversity Comes Innovation and Growth

Social, Generational and Broader Demographic Matters in Sport

Bernard Salt

11 May 2015

© 2015 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.

The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

Disclaimer

These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis.

Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions.

Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party’s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG’s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in this presentation.

Sydney

Melbourne

Hobart

Adelaide

Perth

Darwin

Brisbane

Canberra

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics

Australians have always been driven by lifestyle

Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2014

WINNERS

LOSERS



The outlook is for steady elevated growth in South Australia

Components of population growth from 1982 to 2032 in South Australia


2014 2025



South Australia is an Anglo-Mediterranean-Asian-Indian fusion culture


United Kingdom122,300

1

New Zealand12,900

5

China15,900

4

India18,700

3

Italy20,7002

Top 10 population by country of birth in South Australia at the 2011 Census

9Philippines225,000

Vietnam12,000

6

Greece9,800

8

Netherlands7,300

Germany11,4007

10



New acronyms for our newest tribes

PUMCINS …

→ Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs

…NETTELs

←Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life

KIPPERS …

→ Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings

…LOMBARDS

←Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead

Source: KPMG Demographics



It’s lifestyle, resources and commuting that drives population growth

Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2014 for the 100 largest significant urban areas (SUA) in Australia


Elle

nb

roo

k

Kar

rath

a

Bu

ssel

ton

Bu

nb

ury

To

rqu

ay

Dry

sdal

e -

Clif

ton

Sp

rin

gs

Mel

bo

urn

e

Po

rt H

edla

nd

Alb

ury

- W

od

on

ga

Mo

riss

et -

Co

ora

nb

on

g

Em

eral

d

Syd

ney

Alb

any

Dar

win

Ces

sno

ck

Go

ld C

oas

t -

Tw

eed

Hea

ds

Ben

dig

o

Du

bb

o

Gis

bo

rne

- M

aced

on

Mac

kay

Her

vey

Bay

Bo

wra

l - M

itta

go

ng

Nel

son

Bay

- C

orl

ette

Cai

rns

Mu

swel

lbro

ok

Tam

wo

rth

Ad

elai

de

Sh

epp

arto

n -

Mo

oro

op

na

Cen

tral

Co

ast

Mild

ura

- W

entw

ort

h

Mu

rray

Bri

dg

e

Lit

hg

ow

War

rnam

bo

ol

Fo

rste

r -

Tu

ncu

rry

Bat

eman

s B

ay

Ho

bar

t

Gym

pie

Ku

rri K

urr

i - W

esto

n

Bu

nd

aber

g

Ho

rsh

am

Dev

on

po

rt

War

wic

k

Po

rt P

irie

Bro

ken

Hill

Tra

ralg

on

- M

orw

ell

Alic

e S

pri

ng

s

Tar

ee

Po

rt A

ug

ust

a

Co

lac

Gra

fto

n

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Melton

Ellenbrook

Kalgoorlie-Boulder

46. Victor Harbor-Goolwa 72. Mount Gambier52. Port Lincoln 78. Whyalla53. Adelaide 85. Port Pirie61. Murray Bridge 95. Port Augusta

Moe-Newborough

Karratha

Grafton



Adelaide has a culture of volunteering and most likely in sporting activities

* Excludes suburbs with total population less than 1,000


Per cent comparison of selected social indicators in Adelaide at the 2011 Census

Volunteers*

Birdwood 34%

Stirling 34%

Aldgate 34%

Netherby 31%

Bridgewater 31%

Tusmore 31%

Eden Hills 31%

Crafers 30%

Glenalta 30%

Burton 9%

Australian avg. 19%

20-29*

Adelaide 41%

Bedford Park 35%

Kent Town 29%

Kurralta Park 27%

Munno Para West 27%

North Adelaide 25%

Brompton 23%

Norwood 23%

Wayville 23%

Stirling 6%

Australian avg. 14%

Belief*

Newton 85%

Waterloo Corner 85%

Fulham Gardens 85%

Kidman Park 84%

Netley 83%

Croydon Park 83%

Findon 82%

Ferryden Park 81%

Hectorville 81%

Sellicks Beach 51%

Australian avg. 75%



Men lean towards team sports whereas women often choose individual leisure activities possibly with friends


Sports and physical activities participated in by Australians by sex in 2013 - 2014 Population (‘000)

Fitness/GymWalking

Jogging/Running

Yoga

Pilates

Netball



Net change in South Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2013 and 10 years to 2023


The emphasis on sport in South Australia will shift to children, to young parents and to active grandparents

-10,000

-5,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

2003-2013: 0.15 million (1.52m to 1.67m)

Kids & teenagers

School & sports

Active retirees

Volunteers & supportersCoaches & sponsors

Mature adultsYoung adults

Team sports & social

2013-2023: 0.17 million (1.67m to 1.85m)



Increasing life expectancy is creating new stages of the lifecycle … and new sporting opportunities later in life


0 9010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Child Adult Old

1934

Child Teen OldAdult

1974 71

Child Adolescence Lifestyle OldRetired2014

Adult82

63

Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia



From Boomers to Xers and Ys … and finally to Zeds


Forgotten generation

Wrong place … wrong time

No workplace guilt

Angsty about Ys

XGENERATION

■ Born 1965 – 1982

■ Today 32 – 49

Hierarchical

Indulged their kids

Depression era parents

Sandwich generation

BABYBOOMERS

■ Born 1946 – 1964

■ Today 50 – 68

YGENERATION

Special … bubble-wrap

Chaotic connection

Entrepreneurials

Disappointed generation?

■ Born 1983 – 2000

■ Today 14 – 31

Parents results-oriented

Youth in straitened times

Highly educated, global

Pragmatists … fixers

ZGENERATION

■ Born 2001 – 2019

■ Today 0 – 13



There has been a shift in the Australian economy towards knowledge workers

Hea

lth

care

& S

oci

al A

ssis

t.

Pro

fess

ion

al/

Sci

enti

fic/

Tech

.

Pu

blic

Ad

min

&

Saf

ety

Acc

om

& F

oo

d

Ad

min

& S

up

po

rt

Min

ing

Ed

uca

tio

n &

Trai

nin

g

Art

s &

Rec

reat

ion

Fin

anci

al &

Insu

ran

ce

Oth

er S

ervi

ces

Ret

ail T

rad

e

Wh

ole

sale

Tra

de

Ren

tal/h

irin

g &

Rea

l Est

ate

Info

Med

ia &

Te

leco

ms

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

6 years February 2009 – up 1.4m (9.4m – 10.8m)

Ele

ctri

city

/Gas

/W

ater

& W

aste

Ag

ricu

ltu

re/F

ore

stry

&

Fis

hin

g

Tran

spo

rt/P

ost

al/

War

eho

use

Healthcare & Social Assistance

Professionals & Sciences

EducationAccommodation

& Food

6 years February 2015 – up 1.0m (10.8m – 11.8m)

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Co

nst

ruct

ion




Sporting jobs that are rising … and falling

Net change in sports-related occupations in Australia over 5 years to 2011


Occupation 20112006-11

%Occupation 2011

2006-11%

Other Sports Coach or Instructor (basketball, cricket, football)

4,990 44% Horse Riding Coach or Instructor 700 16%

Sports Umpire 3,290 38% Tennis Coach 2,430 13%

Swimming Coach or Instructor 10,280 36% Footballer 1,610 11%

Sportspersons (athletes, tennis players, cyclists, cricketers, surfers, racing drivers)

990 26% Sports Centre Manager 3,580 5%

Gymnastics Coach or Instructor 2,510 23% Snowsport Instructor 550 -4%

Sports Administrator 2,270 19% Jockey 590 -9%

Sports Development Officer 1,070 19% Golfer 1,090 -10%




Why sport is so central to the Australian lifestyle

Sport in communities delivers social cohesion and a strong sense of community … it also delivers physical wellbeing

Australia’s ethnic mix is changing from Anglo-Mediterranean to an Anglo-Mediterranean-Asian fusion … this new culture may not value sport which would present challenges for the development of “premium” athletes

Ageing of the population creates opportunities for new sporting/leisure pursuits … bowls, bush-walking … as well as scope for sporting involvement … umpires, sponsors, coaches, volunteers

The rise of knowledge work and the demise of labouring work might mean an expansion into sport, leisure and creative pursuits … activity delivers unity



Introducing Adelaide’s bachelor hotspot …


Hotspot suburbs for single men and women aged 25-34

at the 2011 CensusVale Park1.56:1

Trinity Gardens

Glenside1.34:1



@bernardsalt

Bernard Salt Demographer

linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt

[email protected]

+61 3 9288 5047

www.bernardsalt.com.au

@bernardsalt

Connect

From Diversity Comes Innovation and Growth Social, Generational and Broader Demographic Matters in...

Documents

Transcript of From Diversity Comes Innovation and Growth Social, Generational and Broader Demographic Matters in...