From Bayesian Modelling to Saddam’s Kurdish Genocide
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FROM BAYESIAN MODELLING TO SADDAM’S KURDISH GENOCIDE
Inaugural Professorial Lecture
Professor Jamal R M Ameen
University of Glamorgan
17th January, 2012
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Life in a Refugee Camp in Iran
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Life in a Refugee Camp in Iran
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My Carrier
Living to be productive; Statistics as a platform; Bayesian modelling as a tool;
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What is meant by a Model
A miniature version of a state of nature that is: Satisfactory in performance relative to the stated
objective, Logically sound, Representative, Questionable and subject to on-line interrogation, Able to accommodate external or expert information
and Able to convey information.
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Elements of Bayesian Statistics
Tomas Bayes (1702-1761): English Mathematician, studied theology and logic at the University of Edinburgh
His theorem known as “Bayes Theorem” was read to the Royal Society after his death in 1763 and later published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London a year later.
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Bayes Theorem
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Different Forms of Bayes Theorem
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The Bayesian Learning System
0.00E+00
5.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.50E-01
2.00E-01
2.50E-01
3.00E-01
3.50E-01
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40
Prior Likelihood Posterior
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Posterior to Prior Knowledge Transition
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
Posterior at time t-1 Prior at time t
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Management by Exception
Routine Mathematical Forecasting
Model
Error Control System
(Ex. CUSUM)
Decision Makers: Vet Forecasts &
Issue Amendments
Expert & Prior Information
Regular Data
Intervention by Exception
Exception Signals Action s Taken:
Stock Control, Production and Market Planning ..
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Implications
No stationarity prerequisites; Man and machine continuous interaction:
A scientific blend of subjectivity and objectivity; Unforeseen events accommodated; Full probabilistic information provided for utility maximisation and decision making; Applicability across all of social, economical and environmental fields.
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Implications for Decision Making
Capturing dynamics in: User behavior; Environmental changes; Unforeseen Events.
Blending expert information and prior beliefs;
Probabilistic expression of reliability of results;
Reliability of data and information based on their age.
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SOME REAL LIFE
EXAMPLES
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Real life Examples
Impact of Innovation: UK Bold; Electricity Consumption and Temperature; Pressure Bandages Blood Decomposition
Control; Pain monitoring Clustering and Crime Detection Construction and Cost Estimation Data zooming Saddam’s Genocide of Kurdistani’s
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Impact of Innovation
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Impact of Innovation
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South Wales Domestic Electricity Consumption
Modelling the impact of temperature on DEC;
Project outcomes: Industrial consultancy; Industrial financial support for a successful
PhD student; Publications and conference presentations in
Europe and Australia; The candidate employed by the university as
Senior Lecturer.
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Quarterly Degree Days by Units of Electricity Consumed
DEG_DAY
120010008006004002000
UN
ITS
800
700
600
500
400
QUARTER
Autu mn
Summer
Spring
Winter
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Electricity Consumption and the Weather
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Pressure Bandages & Leg Ulcer Treatment
European Funded Pressure Bandages for blood flow control to aid
the healing process; Excess pressure can produce the risk of ischemia;
Detailed data on the level of pressure and blood decomposition were observed;
A cusp catastrophe was discovered from the observed data. This was unexpected by the clinicians.
Considerable implications for the monitoring and controlling on patient recovery.
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Pressure Bandages and Blood Composition
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Leg Ulcer & Pain Dynamic Profiles
Smith & Nephew Foundation funding for the modeling stage;
Welsh Government funding for preparing a prototype with prospects for mass production and marketing.
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Clustering and Crime Detection
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Construction and Cost Estimation
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Case Number
77 73
69 65
61 57
53 49
45 41
37 33
29 25
21 17
13 9
5 1
Value
8
6
4
2
0
L_HOUR
Predicted Vales
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Data Mining and Modeling
Introduced the principle of zooming in and out of data
to aid the blending of classical and modern
methods of data analysis
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Contributions to My Native Home: Kurdistan
An Establishing member of Kurdistan Medical and Scientific Federation based in London;
Data and Information Centre for Kurdistan; The Human Cost of Tyranny in Kurdistan
Region: A Bayesian Dynamic Estimation Model;
Over 20 publications in the local media covering the economical, social and political aspects of interest to Kurdistan.
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The structure of data communication
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The Halabja Gas Massacre
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The Barzani Tribe Genocide
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One of the Concentration Camps
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The Mass Exodus
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Human Cost Estimation
No intermediate data The only reliable census data available from
the years of 1947 and 1957 Fertility rates and survival rates estimated from
the past surveys; A dynamic model was built with these
estimates completing the state transition matrix.
];0[~;1 WNwwG ttttt
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Estimated Human Cost of Tyranny in Kurdistan
1,911,479of which
1,043,549 are male&
867,930 are female
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Thank you for listening