From Aquino to Obama: Presidential Time in the Philippines and the U.S.
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From Aquino to Obama: Presidential Time in the Philippines and the U.S.
Mark Thompson, Southeast Asian Research Centre (SEARC) and Department of Asian & International Studies,
City University of Hong Kong
Presentation to APISA 5Regional Integration in Europe and Asia
in the 21st Century24-25 November 2011
Overseas Chinese UniversityTaichung, Taiwan
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Does anybody know what time it is?
• Stephen Skowronek’s presidential “time”– Timing of presidency– Relationship to predecessors– Recurrent cycles
• More structuralist– Upends Neutstadt’s personal model– Ideology, interests, institutional arrangements– Position within ‘regime’ key
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You can’t compare!!
• The “1st” to “3rd World” – a sacrilege!– Imperial power to a post-colonial society - absurd!– Spanish King with a German Hanoverian - nein!– Apples and mangos - a no go!– (Well, at least the same national bird)
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But what if we did it anyway?
• “Test” patterns of presidentialism– in varied contexts– strength and relevance of institutional variable
• Turns largest area specialist literature– into generalizable social science
• Philippine colonialism and presidential model
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Presidential regimes
• Formal institutions– Also social bases (e.g. party alignments)
• Regime building– Reconstructionist
• Orthodox innovation (or exhaustion)– (Dis)articulation
• Opposition– Preemption
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What time is it for Aquino?
• Mother’s son– Takes up reformist narrative
• Arroyo’s failed presidency as foil– Corrupt contrast
• Performance not stellar– But narrative solid
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Aquino as “articulator”
• Revives reformist “narrative”– After Arroyo’s “apostasy”
• A good dynast– As opposed to Arroyo’s cynical dynasticism
• Key is belief in his sincerity– But how long will that serve him– Regime renewal or exhaustion?
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Aquino and Ramos
• Ramos considered best post-Marcos president– Implements reforms after instability
• Aquino brings stability too– After illegitimacy of Arroyo
• Ramos “success” doesn’t help poor– Estrada his populist successor– If reformism fails– populism as alternative regime?
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And Obama?
• Long unclear if was a “reconstructionist”– Or preemptive president
• Narrative ambiguous– “change we can believe in”– Attempt to found a new regime?– Or create bi-partistanship?
• Preemptive turn– Welfarism forgotten
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“Mongrel” politics
• Obama can’t accept prevailing regime– But opposing it too much risks implosion– As massive mid-term losses suggest
• Now moving to political center– While portraying Republicans as extremist
• Tea Party an effort to revive Reaganism– But extremism makes preemption easier– Key to Obama’s re-election
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Obama and Clinton
• Both ran “negative campaigns”– Against failing of Bush administrations– no clear positive alternative
• Both overestimated their mandate– Backlash against “socialist” health care– Republican victories reaffirming the “faith”
• But Republicans overplayed hand before– Also against Obama?– Or will Republican regime be revived?
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Ideology
• Foundational ideology– Anti-statism in U.S.– Reformism in Philippines
• Preemptive strategies– Smart government (Clinton)– Populism (Estrada, FPJ)
• End of regime possible– Radicalization of Republicans– Corruption of reformers
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Interests
• Neo-liberalism in U.S.– Big business/Wall street – Religious right– “Tea party” unites them
• Reformism in the Philippines– Makati Business Club– Catholic Church– Middle Class activists unite them
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Institutional arrangements
• Changes in U.S. system in new “regime”– Conservative supermajority in Congress– Conservative dominance in Supreme Court– Increasing polarization of political parties– Media politicized
• And post-Marcos Philippines– Multi-party system– House shifts, Senate independence– Judicial check– Strong military influence
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Performance v. Narrative
• Obama– Strong record– Competent cabinet– Weak narrative– Uncertain re-election
• Aquino– Weak performance– Administration infighting– Strong narrative
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Same, same or different?
• US regimes since Jefferson– Pre-Marcos, Marcos, post-Marcos
• Aquino revives reformism– Obama pre-empts Reaganism
• Estrada’s fall through coup– Nixon’s institutionalized
• Philippine parties more fluid– US parties increasingly ideological– Behind “clientelism” are narratives
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El demonio de las comparaciones
• Rizal sees ‘spectre of comparison’– Despite socio-economic gap– And US Philippines cultural differences– Presidentialism ‘bedeviled’ by similar logic
• Presidency structured– Limits presidents’ choices– to articulation of/antagonism towards– regime narrative– ‘Performance’ as ‘role playing’
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Thanks/Salamat
And I was walking down the street one dayA pretty lady looked at me and said her diamond watch had stopped cold deadAnd I saidDoes anybody really know what time it isDoes anybody really careIf so I can't imagine whyabout timeWe've all got time enough to cryOh no, no, no, no, no, no nooooooooo