From ‘Industry 4.0’ to ‘Work 4.0’ - The German experience

Queen’sInterna,onalIns,tuteonSocialPolicyQIISPKingstonOntario,16August2018

Mo@va@on

• Germandebateabout‘Industry4.0’• Produc,vityandcompe,,venessconcerns•  Employmentrestructuringawayfrommedium-skilledmanufacturing/polariza,on

•  Linkingtechnologicalinnova,onandsocialinnova,on(‘technology-centricvs.human-centricscenarios’)

Risk of Automa@bility of Jobs

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Jobsatriskofsignificantchange Jobsathighriskofautoma,on

Quelle:OECDEmploymentOutlook(2016),calcula,onsbasedontheSurveyofAdultSkills(PIAAC)2012.

Labor market polariza@on in Europe, 1995-2015

4 Source:OECDEmploymentOutlook2017,Figure3.A1.

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Lowskill Middleskill Highskill

Challenges •  Forecastednumberofjobslikelytoremainroughlysimilaroverthenextdecade;star,ngpointofdebateisamoderateoverallimpactofthedigitaltransforma,onontheemploymentlevel.

•  However,acoupleofissuesarise:1.  Profoundstructuralandoccupa-onalchangesinsupplyanddemandof

labour:strongerdemandforhighlyskilledworkers,outlookformediumskilledgroups(voca,onaltraining)ismoreambiguous,riskofjoblossesandpolariza,on.

2.  Rela,onbetweenGermany‘sdiversifiedqualityproduc,on(manufacturing)withincrementalinnova-onandthe(rather)disrup,veworldofdigitalworkandonlineplaborms.

3.   Collec-vebargainingandco-determina-onatfirmlevelmighthelporganizechange,butscopeofbothisdeclining.

4.  Dynamiclabourdemandmeetsincreasinglydiverse+olderworkforce.

5.  Focusonpoten,alerosionofsocialinsurancefunding,inpar,cularifself-employment/plabormworkgrows.

Consulta@on process on ‘Work 4.0’

• Dialogueini,atedbygovernment,withsocialpartnersandexperts

• Keyelement:exploringneedsandpossibili,esofrenewedlabourmarket,HRandsocialpolicies,basedonbroadstakeholderpar,cipa,on,s,mula,nganitera,vepolicymakingprocess.

• Mainleitmo,ves:balancedmixofdifferentformsofflexibility;labourmarketpar,cipa,onandmobility,includinglifelonglearning;work-lifebalanceandhealthyworkingcondi,ons;effec,vesocialprotec,on…

Structure of the dialogue •  Timing:Ø InauguralconferenceApril2015:ques,onsraisedina‘GreenPaper’.

Ø Mid-termconferenceMarch2016.Ø ClosingconferenceNovember2016:drag‘WhitePaper’•  Involvementofvarietyofstakeholders:workscouncils/tradeunions,companies/employersassocia,ons,otherinterestgroups,thinktanks,experts

•  Twotypesofformats:•  1.Expertdialogue:permanentexpertgroupandseveralexpertworkshops,specificworking,medialogue;consulta,onswithself-employed;commissionedresearch

•  2.Publicdialogue:viasocialmedia,surveys,filmfes,val•  Final‚WhitePaperWork4.0‘early2017

Main axes of debate •  Lifelonglearning:essen,alinordertokeepupwithrapidlyevolvingtechnologicaldevelopments.Addi,onal(digital)qualifica,onswillbecompulsoryinalmostallsectorsandoccupa,ons.Aspira,onforalegalrighttocon,nuingvoca,onaleduca,onandtraining.

•  Flexibilityatwork,working-me:greaterself-determina,on,balancenecessarybetweenconflic,nginterests.Protec,onfromover,me+breakdownoftheboundariesonworkisessen,al.Nego,atedworking,memodelsandflexibilitycompromisesareincreasinglyimportant.

•  Health:healthandsafetymustreflectdigitaltransforma,on+demographicchange,thereforenecessarytofocusmoreonpsychologicalstrainofwork.

•  Socialprotec-on,selfemployment:linesbetweenemploymentandself-employedworkareblurring,reasonabletoincludeself-employedindividualsinthestatutorypensioninsurancesystemalongsideemployees.Incaseofanincreaseinplabormworkand‘new’self-employment,newprotec,onstrategieswouldhavetobedeveloped,tailoredinpar,culartoemployee-likeself-employedworkers.

Posi@ons of main actors

•  Tradeunions:Extensiveinterestinthesubjectmakerandwelcomegovernmentalinterest.Mainfocusona)employmentstatusb)socialprotec,onc)earningsd)co-determina,onandadvocacy.Tradeunionsseestrongregulatoryneeds.

•  Employers:Recognizetheimportanceandpossibili,es.Exis,ngregula,onsaregenerallydeemedsufficient.

•  Government:Essen,altoinvestinboos,ngskillsandimprovingindividualprospectsforadvancementatanearlystage.Balancemustbestruckbetweenconflic,nginterestsandgoals.Tosuccessfullycopewithdigitalstructuralchange,thenego,a,onprocessesbetweenthesocialpartnersandatfirm-levelneedtobestrengthened.Appropriatetoincludeself-employedindividualsinthestatutorypensioninsurancesystemalongsideemployees.

Some policy ideas – as stated in White Paper

•  ‚Employmentinsurance‘allowingformorepreventa,veuseofunemploymentissuranceinpar,cularforlifelinglearning–maybealsoPersonalAc,vityAccount(budget)foryoungpeople

•  Legisla,ononrighttochooseworking-meandopeningclausesinworking,melaw

•  Socialinsurancefortheself-employed,inpar,cularold-agepensions

•  Stabiliza,onofsocialpartnership,collec,vebargainingandco-determina,on;generallybindingcollec-veagreementinthesocialsector

•  Regularrepor-ngonchangingworldofwork

Concrete steps undertaken

•  Supportandexchangeoninnova-veworkprac-cesatfirmlevel,e.g.mobileworking,flexibleworking,me,neworganiza,onalmodels…(‘Experimen,erräume’)

•  Coali-onagreement2018–mainpointsrelatedtoWork4.0topics:

1.  Moresystema,ccon,nuoustrainingofemployed–“Na,onaleWeiterbildungsstrategie”

2.  Socialprotec,onofself-employed–inclusioninpublicold-agepensioninsurance

3.  Openingclauseinworking,melegisla,on

Insights with hindsight •  Mainissuesdebatedinthe‘Work4.0’contextarelong-standingtopicsoflabormarketandsocialpolicy,butnewframing,mo,vatedbytechnologicalchange/automa,on,andlinkingtosocialinnova-on

•  Generalopennesstocollectandassessevidenceoncurrentdevelopments,allowforexperimentsanddesignpoten,ally‘innova,ve’policysolu,ons

•  ‘Flexible’tripar-teapproachatdifferentlevelseemsfeasibleduetosharedinterestinproduc,vity,innova,onandjobs–insomefieldsmorethaninothers,however

•  Importantissue:avoiddominanceof‘oldinterests‘–whilefindingformatsforar-cula-onandnego-a-oninnew,lessorganizedsectors

•  Remarkablegapbetweenpublicaken,on,discourseandconcretepolicies–maybecorrespondingtoincrementalchangesinthelabourmarketandinpolicymaking

Werner Eichhorst IZA

IZA, P.O. Box 7240 53072 Bonn, Germany

Phone: +49 (0) 228 - 38 94 – 531 Fax: +49 (0) 228 - 38 94 - 510

E-mail: eichhorst@iza.org

http://www.iza.org