From €3 billion to €6 billion

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From €3 billion to €6 billion How did we get there? Where will it get us?

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Transcript of From €3 billion to €6 billion

Page 1: From €3 billion to €6 billion

From €3 billion to €6 billion

How did we get there?Where will it get us?

Page 2: From €3 billion to €6 billion

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Government Revenue

Government Spending

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Eurostat

Annual tax revenue and government expenditure

Government Accounts

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Government Spending

Government Revenue

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance

Annual government revenue and expenditure, %GDP

Government Accounts

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Government Spending

Government Revenue

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance

Annual government revenue and expenditure, €millions

Government Accounts

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GDP Projections Dec 2009

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance

GDP at current market prices projected to 2014

GDP Projections

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GDP Projections Dec 2009

GDP Projections Nov 2010

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office

GDP at current market prices projected to 2014

GDP Projections

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GDP Projections Dec 2009

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance

GDP at current market prices projected to 2014

GDP Projections

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GDP Projections Dec 2009

GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office

GDP at current market prices projected to 2014

GDP Projections

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GDP Projections Dec 2009

GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office

GDP at current market prices projected to 2014

GDP Projections

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GDP Projections Dec 2009

GDP Projections Nov 2010

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office

GDP at current market prices projected to 2014

GDP Projections1

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Revised GDP Projections Dec 2009

GDP Projections Nov 2010

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office

GDP at current market prices projected to 2014

GDP Projections

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€m

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GDP Projections Nov 2010

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance

GDP at current market prices projected to 2014

GDP Projections

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GDP Projections Nov 2010

GDP Projections Nov 2010 excluding 'extra' adjustment

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office

GDP at current market prices projected to 2014

GDP Projections

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€m

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Revised GDP Projections Dec 2009

GDP Projections Nov 2010

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office

GDP at current market prices projected to 2014

GDP Projections

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140

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€m

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'

GDP Projections Nov 2010 excluding 'extra' adjustment

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office

GDP at current market prices projected to 2014

GDP Projections

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Dec-09 Nov-10CURRENT BUDGET ExpenditureGross Voted Current Expenditure 55,183 55,000Non-Voted (Central Fund) Expenditure 8,335 7,500Gross Current Expenditure 63,518 62,500less Expenditure Receipts and Balances 13,829 12,750Net Current Expenditure 49,689 49,750ReceiptsTax Revenue 32,800 31,750Non-Tax Revenue 1,093 1,750Net Current Revenue 33,893 33,500Less Adjustment 2,000 2,000CURRENT BUDGET BALANCE -13,797 -14,250

CAPITAL BUDGETExpenditureGross Voted Capital 5,500 5,500Non-Voted Expenditure 824 1,150Gross Capital Expenditure 6,324 6,650less Capital Receipts 476 250Net Capital Expenditure 5,848 6,400Capital Resources 1,629 1,500CAPITAL BUDGET BALANCE -4,218 -4,900

EXCHEQUER BALANCE -18,015 -19,150

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Moving Targets

Sticking to the 10% target it would allow a GGB of €16.1 billion.

Changing the target to 9.3% means the allowable (in the sense of the target) GGB can be of the order of €15 billion.

Moving the goalposts sees another €1 billion added to the planned adjustment.

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From €3 billion to €6 billion

€1 billion as a result of changes to nominal GDP– CSO revisions of GDP figures (€0.4 billion)– Drag of increased adjustment (€0.3 billion)– Reduced inflation expectations (€0.2 billion)

€1 billion due to continued deterioration of the public finances€1 billion due to reducing the GGB target from 10% to 9.3%.

€0 billion due to reduced growth forecasts.

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% G

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1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

EU Average

Ireland

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Eurostat

Annual government revenue, %GDP

Government Accounts

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

EU Average, %GDP

Ireland, %GNI

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Eurostat

Annual government revenue

Government Accounts

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

EU Average

Ireland

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Eurostat

Annual government expenditure, %GDP

Government Accounts

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

EU Average, %GDP

Ireland, %GNI

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: Eurostat

Annual government expenditure

Government Accounts