French Nat. Report (Mercator Océan): Planned future activities and examples of demonstration

French Nat. Report (Mercator Océan):Planned future activities and examples of

demonstration

Eric Dombrowsky

Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

Outline

Major achievements during GoDAE

The present capacity

Services developed (examples)

The next phase


Major achievements during GoDAEfrom 1997 Fort de France meeting (1/2)

Mercator Océan established– Legal entity owned by CNES, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, Météo-France and SHOM

Mercator Océan is an operational, global, real-time ocean forecast service provider

Its activity follows 3 main axes:– Exploit and maintain real-time numerical ocean forecast systems

• Exploitation, production, expertise and qualification• Maintenance

– Ensure service level as required by its users, and promotes the development of downstream services at the Global scale

• Dedicated/generic services• Communication, outreach

– Prepare service evolutions to maintain service quality close to the state of the art

• Innovation, development, integration of new functionalities• Prototyping, …


Major achievements during GoDAEfrom 1997 Fort de France meeting (2/2)

System suite developed and operated– North Atlantic + Med eddy resolving (routine)– Global eddy permitting (routine) and low resolution (routine) Global eddy resolving (demo in April 2008)

Methodology defined, and tools implemented for assessment and validation– GoDAE Metrics

Links with data centers developed– CORIOLIS for the In Situ observing system– SSALTO/DUACS for the altimetry– Météo-France for the SST (to evolve within MyOcean) and Forcing

Connection with other operational oceanography centers established– Within EU-GMES: UKMO, NERSC, INGV, DMI, DFO– Bilateral collaborations

• MOON (Med sea), GOAPP (DFO/EC Canada), …

– International• GoDAE, EuroGOOS, …


The model configurations

1 code : NEMO (OPA9+LIM)

1 grid : all the configurations are on the same ORCA (tripolar) grid

One single input dataset : initialization and forcing interpolated inline

Some of these configurations are shared with the scientific and operational community

– ORCA025: Drakkar and Glorys Project, Barnier et al.

– UKMO, CMCC, EC, DFO, …

ORCA025

1 point sur 12

ORCA12ATL12NEATL36


T , S

Ψ

U, V

Ugeo , Vgeo

Ubar , Vbar

+

Model initialisation

Baroclinic

Hbar

SAM2 kernel

Modal Space(Reduced Space)

Control SpaceSEEK

Analysis

T(k)

S(k)

Barotropic

U(k)

V(k)

The assimilation scheme: SAM2(Kalman Filter type)

3D modesacting on 3D space

SAM2v1: SEEK filter using multivariate 3D modes


Outline

Achievements (system development) during GoDAE



The next phase


Several model configurations operated for several uses

Regional eddy resolving (2002)– North Atlantic + Mediterranean– operational: 5-7 km, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of alti. T/S and SST– From April 2008: 1/12° (6.5 km at 45°N), NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of alti, T/S and SST, daily fcst– Target: mesoscale upper ocean, downscaling to smaller regional and coastal regions, …

Global eddy permitting (09/2005 )– operational: ¼°, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of alti only– From April 2008: ¼°, NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of alti, T/S and SST

• Has been operated in demo mode during Mersea TOP2: AprilSept 2007

– Target: global ocean climate monitoring, biology, sea ice, reanalysis, …

Global low resolution (05/2004 )– Today: 2°, OPA8, SEEK assim of alti, T/S and SST– Target: oceanic initial conditions for coupled seasonal prediction, reanalysis

Global eddy resolving (to be operational at the end of MyOcean)– NEMO/LIM+SEEK 1/12°

• Has been demonstrated in April 2008– Target: Global Marine Core Service and downscaling to European regions

Northeastern Atlantic high resolution (to be operational at the end of MyOcean)– NEMO 1/36° +SEEK + Tidal free surface– Target: IBIROOS Marine Core Service Boundary data to coastal systems


System performance: SLAGlobal 1/4° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right)

Nov 07 Apr 08 Nov 07 Apr 08

~ =

+

+


System performance: T and S biasesGlobal 1/4° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right)

Temperature

Salinity

Temperature

Salinity

+/-0.5° +/-0.5°

+/-0.05 Psu +/-0.05 Psu

~ =

+

+

-


System performance: T and S RMSDIFGlobal 1/4° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right)

Temperature

Salinity

Temperature

Salinity

0.5°

0.1 Psu

0.5°

0.1 Psu


T/S Global (1/4°) overall performances1-year average (2007). Left: Bias, Right: RMSdiff

600m

+/- 0.1 Psu

+/- 0.5°C

600m

0.5 °C

0.1 Psu

Temp

Sal

Temp

Sal


Mercator 1/12° April 21 2008Mercator 1/4 April 21 2008OSTIA April 21 2008


Mercator 1/12° - 20m salinity - April 29 2008


Mercator 1/12° - 100m salinity - April 21 2008Mercator 1/12° - 100m salinity - April 29 2008


Outline




The next phase


Use of Mercator products for Navy operations: acoustically interpretive products

Sea Surface TemperatureFrom MERCATOR system

Thickness of the surfaceduct

Exploitability of the surface ductIndicator: green: good conditions,

Red: no conditions

The French Navy (SHOM) has been developing Operational Ocean Forecating Systems since 1990: the SOAP program

These systems rely now on Mercator products

From Jourdan et al.


[S1] Delineated eddies and frontsFrench Navy product based on Mercator

Front and eddies with potential acoustic impact detected by Navy forecasters and delivered to Navy headquarters for operations at sea


Expertise added byMercator Ocean Forecasters

Example of Real-time bulletin:

29 March 2006 in the Gulf of Mexico

Assimilation:– 2 on 3 Sat on duty, and some interest area are

almost not covered.– No in-situ observations assimilated .

Model :– The model is a bit late, with the persistence of

a small residual error in the south of the LCE. – The LC stream is confirmed by satellite SSH

map and AVHRR data. – The LCE is well located compared to AVHRR

data. Overall situation :

– On north :• The new LCE is moving westerly along the

sigsbee escarpment while the second LCE is virtually stationary.

– On south :• The CARE is crossing the YS, and increase the

stability and intensity of the LC, this one is retracted (mode 1)

24 March

13 March

25 March

Date of the lastest

tracks

4GFO

0ENVISAT

6JASON

Number

of

tracks

On duty during all the

periodNowcast onMarch 29th


Monitoring surface current to follow drifting objects


E.g., SST monitoring in European waters

Available regions map

Thematic menu

Indicator WEB servicehttp://www.mersea.eu.org/Indicators-with-B4G.html

Soulat and Messal, 2008


Bulletin Input- Displacement from (1ON: 130E) towards

(40N:120E)Ocean bulletin:- significant intensification in the next 48 hr- significant weakening north of 20°N

Tropical Cyclone MonitoringExample: RAMASSUN (May 2008)

Guess cyclone fate from Ocean near surface heat content

Buarque, 2008


Tropical Cyclone DEAN (August 2008)


Cyclone NARGIS (May 2008)


Observing systems impact studies:Impact of altimetry on analysis and forecast accuracy

SLA RMSDIFF

No altimetry

Jason only Jason + Envisat

Jason+Envisat

+GFO

Jason+Envisat

+GFO+T/P

7-day Forecast (cm) 10,27 9,67 8,95 8,62

Nowcast (cm) 9,15 8,36 7,50 7,08

Hindcast (cm) 12,94 8,38 7,07 6,18 5,63

Results of an Observing System Experiment (OSE)All experiment:

-North Atlantic + Med eddy resolving system (1/15°)-Multivariate assimilation of SLA+SST+T/S profiles-1 year integration (2004)

Benkiran, 2008


> 0 means degradation in %

0 is the baseline (3 sats)

< 0 means improvement in %

RMS(Obs-Expi)-RMS(Obs-Baseline)

RMS(Obs)

Shown here diags from innovation: Obs (not yet assimilated) - Forecast

Full domain

POMME region

Cape Verde region

Assim of: In situ T/S + RTG SST + •No alt•Jason•Jason + Envisat•Jason + Envisat + GFO (baseline)•Jason + Envisat + GFO + T/P•Progressive loss ( )

[S5] Observing systems impact studies:Impact of altimeter data coverage

Benkiran, 2008


ARGO deployment :start: 2002Now: ~3000 floats

Number of observations

Global Ocean,Salinity 7-day forecast misfit

NINO 4 box (Trop. Pacific), Salinity 7-day forecast misfit

NINO 4 box (Trop. Pacific), Temperature 7-day forecast misfit

improved forecast scores thanks to ARGO network

Observing systems impact studies Impact of ARGO (low resolution global)


Outline




The next phase


Future developments

System– Global eddy resolving (1/12°)– Enhanced capacity on North Atlantic + Med– High resolution (1/36°) in the Iberian Biscay Irish region (IBIROOS)

• Collaboration with Spain

Services– RT:

• Transition to operational services within MyOcean 2010• Daily service of short-term forecast O(1 week) GLO1/4+NATL1/12• Weekly assimilation and medium range forecast O(2 weeks)• Operational backup at UKMO for global and NATL+MED

– Reanalysis:• GLORYS: 20-years reanalysis (altimetry era) within MyOcean 2010• Longer reanalysis: collaboration with ECMWF

French Nat. Report (Mercator Océan): Planned future activities and examples of demonstration

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