Freighter Updated Risk and Cost Benefit Analysis · BACKGROUND. IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire...

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IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model Freighter Fire Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Benefit Analysis & Risk Model Risk Model

Transcript of Freighter Updated Risk and Cost Benefit Analysis · BACKGROUND. IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire...

Page 1: Freighter Updated Risk and Cost Benefit Analysis · BACKGROUND. IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model 8 PERIOD CUMULATIVE RTM NUMBER OF

IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model

Freighter Fire Freighter Fire

Suppression Cost Suppression Cost

Benefit Analysis & Benefit Analysis &

Risk ModelRisk Model

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IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model

A Cost Benefit Analysis carried out for the

FAA in 2009 concluded that:

BACKGROUND

“Halon fire suppression systems, or alternatives that are likely to be developed for below floor cargo compartments, are unlikely to be cost beneficial for the main deck cargo compartments of cargo aircraft of any weight category.”

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IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model

Transport Canada commissioned a re-evaluation

of these conclusions following the fatal accident

to the UPS Boeing 747 freighter in Dubai on 3rd

September 2010. The interim results suggest that

this one additional accident “would have very

little impact on the cost benefit ratio established

by the original study”.

BACKGROUND

Page 4: Freighter Updated Risk and Cost Benefit Analysis · BACKGROUND. IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model 8 PERIOD CUMULATIVE RTM NUMBER OF

IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model

However, other

factors have

changed since the

FAA study in 2009 –

primarily the

average value of the

US freighter fleet

which is a major

factor in the cost

benefit ratio.

BACKGROUND

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IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model

BACKGROUNDCollateral

5%

Aircraft

58%

Crew Fatal

24%

Crew Serious

2%

Cargo

11%

1715\Model\Issue 2 - Summary of Results.xlsxFAA Study 2009

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IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model

Crew Fatal

15%

Aircraft

79%

Collateral

2%

Cargo

3%

Crew

Serious

1%

BACKGROUND

FAA &

Transport

Canada

Study 2011

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IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model

Other factors have changed since the 2009 FAA

study:

– in particular the rapid growth in the volume of

freight being carried by the North American

freighter fleet especially carriage of secondary

lithium batteries that may have had an

involvement in both the Philadelphia (2006) and

Dubai (2010) freighter accidents.

BACKGROUND

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PERIOD CUMULATIVE RTM

NUMBER OF FIRE

ACCIDENTS

1967 - 2010 624 X 109 5

2011 - 2020 365 X 109 3

If there was no increase in the threat of freighter fires due to batteries

Growth in Lithium Ion

Battery Production

2010 = 1

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IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model

BATTERY FIRE RELATED INCIDENTS

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IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model

The current study, commissioned by the FAA,

Transport Canada and the UK CAA, has resulted

in the development of Cost Benefit and Risk

Models to evaluate the impact of the increasing

threat to freighter airplanes for a variety of

potential mitigation strategies.

BACKGROUND

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IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model

OBJECTIVES

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The broad objectives of the Study are to:

�Evaluate the relative Cost Benefit Ratios for

Freighter Fire Suppression Strategies identified

by the FAA

�Develop a Risk Model to assess the number

of accidents likely to be experienced by the US

fleet attributable to Freighter Fires

..\..\Rgwc1720 (Freighter Cargo Fire Risk Model)\04 Final Report and Data\02 Benefit Model\Model\Monte Carlo Model - Version 20A Locked (1000 runs).xlsm

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IASFPWG May 2011 - Freighter Fire Suppression Cost Benefit Analysis & Risk Model

MODEL OVERVIEW

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� Monte Carlo Simulation models have been

developed in Microsoft Excel

� The model considers each freighter airplane

type in the US fleet individually and in

combination

� The model currently assesses Cost Benefit

Ratio and the likely future number of

accidents for any selected combination of 6

proposed mitigation strategies.

..\02 Benefit Model\Model\Monte Carlo Model - Version 20A Locked (1000 runs).xlsm