Freight Transport Report for the Island of Ireland

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Freight Transport

Report for theIsland of Ireland


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Acknowledgements

InterTradeIreland commissioned this report in association with theJoint Business Council. We would like to thank Ian Williams and John Pharoahrom WSP or their hard work and the members o the Steering Group orproviding valuable insight and direction.

Steering Group MembersAidan Gough InterTradeIrelandChristopher Ryan InterTradeIreland

Dennis Galway OBEDoreen Brown Department o Regional Development Northern IrelandKen Jordan Department o Transport IrelandEnda Connellan Dublin PortNeil Delaney DHLTom Wilson Freight Transport AssociationReg McCabe IBEC/CBIWilliam Poole IBEC/CBI

The study team is a multi-disciplinary consortium consisting o:

WSPconsultantsfromthePolicyandResearchGroup;

DrEdwardSweeneyandhisteamfromtheNationalInstituteforTransportandLogistics(NITL),Dublin;

PantrakTransportationLimited,Bellshill,NorthLanarkshire;and

ProfessorAlanMcKinnon,Edinburgh.

InterTradeIreland has commissioned this study in association with theJoint Business Council. However, the views expressed in this report andits annexes are those o the WSP-led consortium, they do not necessarilyrepresent the view o InterTradeIreland or the Joint Business Council.


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Contents

5 Internal Transport Challenges 70

5.1 Introduction 71

5.2 Road inrastructure and congestion 74

5.3 Road reight operations 80

5.4 Rail reight perspectives 85

6 Transport Challenges

External to the Island 88

6.1 Introduction 89

6.2 British land corridor 89

6.3 Road costs and uel pricing 92

6.4 EU support or transport projects 97

6.5 Ports and shipping 99

6.6 Air reight 100

7 Key fndings and

recommendations 104

8 Bibliography 114

9 Glossary and Abbreviations 118

Appendices, Figures & Tables 122

Appendix A

List o Stakeholders Interviewed 123

Appendix B

Results and Analysis rom the Consultation 124

B.1 Interviews with transport providers 124

B.2 Interviews with users o transport 128

B.3 Results rom the e-survey 129

Appendix C

Road Schemes in Northern Ireland 132

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

1 Introduction 16

1.1 Purpose o the study 17

1.2 Study approach 17

1.3 Structure o the report 18

2 Freight and Logistics Baseline 20

2.1 Overview 21

2.2 Economic context 21

2.3 Freight movements - overview 27

2.4 Road 29

2.5 Rail 38

2.6 Ports and shipping 40

2.7 Air 43

3 Future Trends and

Planned Investments 46

3.1 Introduction 47

3.2 Forecasts o economic growth 47

3.3 Future road reight growth 49

3.4 Planned road investment 53

3.5 Future port trac growth 57

3.6 Logistics and supply chain trends 62

4 Consultation 66

4.1 Methods 67

4.2 General ndings 68

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 Northern Ireland and Irish total gross value added per capita 1990-2004(constant prices) 21

Figure 2.2 Ireland: imports and exports by category, 1999-2005 22

Figure 2.3 Ireland: proportion o imports and exports by location 23

Figure 2.4 Sales in Northern Ireland by Sector 2005/06 24

Figure 2.5 Northern Ireland: exports by location by value 24Figure 2.6 Total Cross-Border trade 1995 - 2006 25

Figure 2.7 Percentage by mode o reight tonnes delivered on island o Ireland: 1998-2005 28

Figure 2.8 Road reight activity in Ireland and Northern Ireland, 2001-2006 29

Figure 2.9 Irish domestic road reight activity in 2005 by commodity 30

Figure 2.10 Northern Ireland domestic road reight activity in 2005 by commodity 30

Figure 2.11 Freight tonnes lited in Ireland, by vehicle type, 2001-06 31

Figure 2.12 Freight lited in Northern Ireland, by vehicle type, 2001-05 32

Figure 2.13 Freight tonnes moved by road between NUTS 3 regions 33

Figure 2.14 Freight value moved by road between NUTS 3 regions 34

Figure 2.15 Growth in the stock o Irish and Northern Ireland registered goods vehicles 1997-2006 35

Figure 2.16 Daily heavy goods vehicle link counts 36

Figure 2.17 Indicative value o reight on Northern Ireland road network 37

Figure 2.18 Rail reight tonnes and tonne kms in Ireland 1998-2006 39

Figure 2.19 Ro-Ro Accompanied / unaccompanied and Lo-Lo reight tonnesshipped to the island o Ireland 40

Figure 2.20 Port sizes by category o goods received 42

Figure 2.21 Tonnage by category handled at ports o the island o Ireland 2001-2005 43Figure 2.22 Cargo handled at Northern Ireland airports 43

Figure 2.23 Cargo handled at Irish airports 44

Figure 3.1 Forecasts o road trac growth by vehicle type and road type in Ireland 49

Figure 3.2 Irish National road network, 2015 - Transport 21 55

Figure 3.3 Roads Service Northern Ireland: planned investments on the strategic network to 2015 57

Figure 3.4 Unitised trac orecast scenarios developed or Ireland 59

Figure 9.1 Expected trends in reight transport demand by mode 124

Figure 9.2 Trends in costs o transport services by mode 124

Figure 9.3 Issues aced by transport providers 125

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Figure 9.4 Transport inrastructure compared to Europe 126

Figure 9.5 The island o Irelands external links compared to Europe 126

Figure 9.6 Eectiveness o measures to alleviate congestionor its impacts on transport providers 127

Figure 9.7 Transport issues or government 128

Figure 9.8 Importance o reight transport or competitiveness 129

Figure 9.9 Current transport systems eect on competitiveness 129

Figure 9.10 Quality o reight service 130

Figure 9.11 Level o reight transport adaptation to supply chain needs 130

Figure 9.12 Freight service value or money 130

Figure 9.13 Future road haulage vehicle loading actors 130

Figure 9.14 E-Survey: policy recommendations 131

Figure 9.15 E-Survey: challenges / concerns / diculties 131

LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1 National Population Projections to 2020, 1000 persons 48Table 3.2 Estimated impact o the possible causes o UK decoupling

o road reight tonne-kms rom GDP growth 51

Table 5.1 Speed limits by road type or goods vehicles outside built-up areas 81

Table 5.2 Rail to port connections or unitised trac 87

Table 6.1 Tonnage by ultimate international origin/destination to/rom Ireland,by powered Irish registered vehicles 2006 90

Table 6.2 All Ro-Ro tonnage rom/to Irish ports in 2006, by oreign port o dispatch / receipt 91

LIST OF TEXT BOXESText Box 3.1 Bremore Deepwater Port41 61

Text Box 5.1 Driver Certicate o Proessional Competence (Driver CPC) 72

Text Box 5.2 Improvements to statistical data 73

Text Box 5.3 Leinster Orbital Route 53 77

Text Box 5.4 Planning and Delivery o the Westlink Project 79

Text Box 5.5 Rail reight perspectives in Ireland 86

Text Box 6.1 Estimates o trac through the British land corridor 90

Text Box 6.2 Motorways o the Sea Programme 97

Text Box 6.3 Marco Polo II Programme72 98

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Executive Summary


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3 major trends are driving reight growth:

Construction:Amajorpartoftherecent

rapid growth in road reight in Ireland1(and to a lesser extent in Northern Ireland)is associated with the high recent levels oinvestment in new construction o dwellings,commercial buildings and transport

inrastructure. By 2006, construction materialscomprised almost hal o all tonnes litedin Northern Ireland by Northern Irelandregistered goods vehicles, as well as almosttwo thirds o all tonnes lited in Irelandby Irish registered vehicles. The massiveinrastructure spend planned on the islando Ireland, coupled with continued demandor new dwellings, supported by rapidpopulation growth, means this is unlikelyto reduce greatly in the medium term.

Trac volumes in the other sectors aremuch less sensitive to short term changesin the economy.

TheEconomicandSocialResearchInstitute

(ESRI) Medium Term Review (2005) in itshigh-growth scenario or Ireland orecastsan annual real growth rate in Gross NationalProduct (GNP) o 4.9 per cent rom 2005to 2010 and then o 3.3 per cent throughto 2015. While some correction is likely,the ESRI Quarterly Review (Winter 2007) stillorecasts real annual growth in GNP growtho 2.3 per cent in 20082. Current Departmento Enterprise, Trade and Investment (DETINI)expectations are or real growth in GrossValue Added (GVA) o 3 per cent per annumin both 2007 and 2008 in Northern Ireland,up rom the 2.5 per cent experienced in2006 and growing at a higher rate in 2008than the average or the rest o Great Britain.

Freight baseline and growth trends

Over the last 15 years the industrial structureo the Irish economy has changed radicallyand the rate o economic growth has beenamong the astest o all developed economies.The economy o Northern Ireland has grownsteadily and is amongst the astest growing

regional economies in the UK.

The current modal position or the islando Ireland can be summarised as:

Roadfreighthaslonghadtheoverwhelming

share o inland reight movements within theisland o Ireland.

Railfreighthasdeclinedinabsolutevolume

in recent years and appears unlikely torecover much o this lost trac, though it stillcontinues to have a role to play or certainspecialised movements but only within Ireland,rail reight having ceased completely inNorthern Ireland in 2003.

Portandshippingservicesareofmajorand increasing importance to the island oIreland because o its open economies andits peripheral location relative to Europeanand World markets. In line with the rapid

growth in economic trade, containerisedtrac over the decade to 2006 through theisland o Irelands ports has increased by125 per cent in units o TEU, while Ro-Rohas increased by 70 per cent in units o vehicles.

Airfreighthasgrowninrecentyearswitha small base in terms o tonnage moved,but it is signicant in terms o the value othe goods that it moves and their importancewithin high-tech industry sectors.

1 Over the decade to 2006 the movements o construction materials on Irish roads increased 6-old, growing rom 14 per cento all road tonne-kms in 1996 to 31 per cent in 2006.

2 Davy Stockbrokers orecast 2% this year, returning to a potential growth rate o 3.5-4% or 2009-1011.

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The simple reason or this underestimation isthat the underlying assumptions on which theprojections were originally constructed havechanged considerably. Most signicant is theupward revision to population growth orecaststhat will inevitably induce higher reightdemand. Evolving best practice in Europe istowards better data recording, supporting

more complex models, to provide thenecessary evidence base or long termtransport planning.

In the absence o reliable orecasts theevidence base does not exist to adequatelyprioritise reight needs within transport planning.This has implications or the utilisation o ourexisting stock o inrastructure and or utureinvestment in our port capacity and sharedroad network. Examining the current investment

strategies in Northern Ireland and Ireland inlight o the higher revealed reight movements,points to certain gaps and an overall need toexpedite delivery o strategic transport projects.

Recommendation 1: The orecasting tools thatare used to estimate uture capacity requirementsand to assess competing investment schemesneed to be updated to take account o increasesin underlying population growth projections.To improve the eectiveness and eciency othe substantial planned investment on transportinrastructre the orecasting methodologiesneed to be improved to bring them in linewith best practice (See Section 3.3)

Port Capacity

Ports are the nodal points through which theisland o Ireland connects with the global economy.In relation to ports there are 2 issues: capacity

and connectivity. Outside o ports the movemento reight is impeded by city congestion and

Evenifeconomicgrowtheasessomewhat,

population growth pressure will ensurethat the uture demand or road and portcapacity runs well ahead o that indicatedby past ocial orecasts. The recent ocialprojection o population growth in Irelandpresents a 26 per cent increase in populationin the 14-year period 2006 to 2020. The recent

ocial projection o 4 per cent growth inNorthern Ireland population in the 5 yearsrom 2006, is close to double the pastgrowth rate, and will lead to a 10 per centincrease in Northern Ireland populationby 2021. Taken together this would rendera population o 7.2million on the island oIreland by 2020.

Insummary,thecombinationofthese3trends;

rapid population growth, high levels o construction

activity and continued economic expansionsuggests that the growth o vehicle trac onthe road networks will continue at a rapid level.

Key fndings and recommendations

Understanding Freight Growth

Current ocial projections or reight transportgrowth are much lower than the recorded

recent growth in movements through portsand on roads.

The observed rate o growth in both car andHGV trac on roads in Ireland and o unitisedtrac through the ports, North and South isrunning at a rate close to double that assumedin the various orecasts that are currently beingused by government to plan inrastructureinvestments in Ireland. Northern Irelandsfat 2 per cent growth in road use also

seems conservative.

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predicted by the Fisher normal growth scenario.Similar levels o growth in container tracthrough Northern Ireland have also been recordedduring the same period. While over a shorttime span, this does indicate that the island,North and South is currently registering highgrowth in reight movements. Recently publishedgures or 2007 by Dublin Port suggest this

trend has continued.

The need or extra capacity has been recognisedby the port sector and major expansion plansare underway. It seems clear that expansionwill be privately nanced, both governmentsshould acilitate this through timely planningprocedures and supportive inrastructure thatconnects ports to the wider transport network.

There is inevitably a delay o some years betweenapproval being given or a major new port acilityand the date when it becomes ully availableor use. Major long term damage would be causedto both economies i there was an interim periodwith inadequate port capacity or the import andexport o unitised goods. Without spare capacitywithin the port system there will be no eectivecompetition and little pressure to control pricesor improve service levels in individual ports.The resulting price increases and congestiondelays experienced in ports would impact on the

competitiveness o exporting rms and on theirability to serve existing markets, causing seriouspotential long term economic consequencesor the island o Ireland.

Recommendation 2: Unitised port capacity onthe island must be expanded. Belast Port has seta target o double capacity by 2020. Other portshave similar ambitions. These need to be delivered,particularly the development o Bremore new port,the Lo-Lo expansion in Dublin port and the

Cork Lo-Lo Terminal in Ringaskiddy. Planningpermission aecting their expansion needsto be progressed rapidly. (See section 3.5)

the state o completeness on the inter-urbanroad network. Underlying these points isthe utilisation o transport inrastructure,the regulation o the reight industryand the provision o a skilled workorce.

Port capacity is currently stretched and will needto expand in the medium term to cater or

continued reight growth. The Department oTransport Ireland (2006) commissioned a reportrom Fisher Associates to asses the uture seaportcapacity requirements or unitised trade on theisland o Ireland. Working on the normal scenario,Lo-Lo would eectively be ully utilised by 2014while an approximate 9 per cent increase on2005 Ro-Ro capacity would also be required.It seems likely that additional capacity, or bothLo-Lo and Ro-Ro, will be needed by this timei not beorehand.

Although some uncertainty exists regarding utureeconomic growth in Ireland, most orecasts predicta short term dip in 2008 returning to strongeconomic growth thereater2. Fishers normalgrowth scenario was based on 4.7 per centannual GDP growth to 2014. The ESRI 2005medium term review orecast that 4.8 per centgrowth in GDP to 2015 would represent a highgrowth scenario. To date the high growth orecasthas been conservative and it would seem that,

a short term correction not withstanding,economic growth will continue to propel reightincreases. Northern Ireland will also contributeto demand with real GVA growth o 3 per centpredicted or 2007-2008.

For both Ireland and Northern Ireland the upwardrevision o population projections to 1.8 per centand 0.7 per cent per annum to 2016 shouldhelp sustain a higher trend in import volumesand the movement o goods.

Observed growth rates or unitised trac inIreland in 2005 and 2006 ran at double those

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British land corridor

A large proportion o the higher value trade

between the island o Ireland and Europe

(approximately 1.5million tonnes o imports

and a little lower volume or exports) passes

overland by lorry through GB, mainly down

to the ports o south-east England and the

Channel Tunnel. This relies on the qualityand usage cost o the inrastructure in GB.

A lack o reliable road links to the ports

o Pembroke and Fishguard (A477/A40),

Heysham (construct Lancaster by-pass)

and Stranraer / Cairnryan (A75/A77) has been

identied. This is a serious issue acing hauliers

and those ports on the island o Ireland which

are geographically tied to these routes. This was

mentioned regularly during the consultation.

In the longer term, i the quality o accesscontinues to deteriorate due to the growth o

local congestion, this could seriously hamper

the ability o the corresponding port, North

or South to compete with others on the island

o Ireland. Any erosion o competition between

ports on the island o Ireland is unlikely to

be in the public interest. (See Section 6.2)

Recommendation 4: Cooperation with theauthorities in England, Wales and Scotland is

required to ensure that these improvementsare prioritised - EU structural unding couldalso be sought or what are strategicinternational rates. This might best be takenorward within the machinery o the British-Irish Council. (See Section 6.2)

Impact o City Congestion

Beyond the immediate access routes to ports

is the broader issue o congestion in the major

cities in which the strategic ports are located.

Decisions on investment need to take account

o the worldwide move towards larger container

vessels that call at ewer and larger ports with

greater depth. A similar trend in increasing

vessel size also applies to eeder vessels.

Future investment must ensure that larger

vessels can be accommodated and that reight

can be transerred readily onto the wider

transport network. This emphasis towards

concentration needs to be counterbalanced by

the desirability o competition to control prices,

improve quality o service, as well as to serve

the natural hinterlands o dierent parts o

the island o Ireland. (See Section 3.5)

Port Connectivity to the Road Network

For ports to unction eectively they must link

seamlessly to the inland network. Particular

bottlenecks exist in getting lorries in and out

o ports, impacting on eciency and the wider

community. Given the signicance o the land

bridge to Europe, similar issues acing a

number o key ports on the west cost o GB

merit a co-operative East-West approach.

Recommendation 3: Improve local accessroutes adjacent to a number o ports / airports.These are: Belast Port (York Street/Westlinkjunction);BelfastInternationalAirport(upgrade

roadconnectionstoM1andM2);Warrenpoint

(NewrySouthernReliefroad);Larne(fulldualling

oftheA8);Rosslare(portaccessroadand

completetheN25);Drogheda(Northernand

Southern Relie roads) and Cork (road systemaround the Jack Lynch Tunnel and N28 toRingaskiddy). Though a number o these routesare contained in investment plans, it is importantto implement these improvements early enoughto support the rapid expected growth in uture

port trac. (See Section 5.2)

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Inter-Urban Road Network

While ports are o critical importance to the

ability to import and export, these only orm a

small proportion o the total reight movement

on the island o Ireland. O critical importance

to all reight is the quality o the major

inter-urban routes. In order to ensure the

needs o the reight industry are taken intoaccount when planning uture investments

both governments could consider:

Recommendation 8: Establishing FreightQuality Partnerships to deliver reight solutionsat a local level, on issues such as night-timecurews, no car lanes, drivers rest areas andbridge and road strengthening. Examples ohow this might be done are provided by theBelast Freight Quality Partnership and by the

Freight Action Plan or Scotland (ScottishExecutive, 2006). (See Section 5.1)

Within Ireland the perception is that

Transport 21 will deliver the necessary

road connectivity. Care must be taken that,

in line with the experience o the M50,

a good supply o inrastructure does not

induce demand resulting in congestion.

Moreover, as Dublin acts as the central

hub in the wider inter-urban network,

congestion there has a national and

indeed island wide eect.

Recommendation 9: Give go-ahead orthe proposed Leinster Outer Orbital route(Drogheda - Navan-Naas), which is notcurrently in Transport 21, in order to relievepressure on the M50. Adopt road use pricingpolicies and land use planning to discourageurban sprawl around it and support thedevelopment o national distribution centres

adjacent to this route.

Congestion in our cities is a critical issue or

the delivery and export o goods, acting as a

thrombosis to the rapid circulation o goods

within the economy.

There is a strong likelihood o continuing

congestion in and around Dublin, particularly

on the M50, which must be used to access the

key gateway o Dublin Port. As well as thecurrent M50 widening, other options that

should be considered to lessen congestion

impacts include the ollowing:

Recommendation 5: Construct an eastern portaccess route to avoid the need or lorries romthe south and south west to circle Dublin onthe congested M50. I this scheme were notto proceed, then as a all-back reduce orsome or all o the day, the current restrictions

on lorries passing rom the south through thecity to the port.

Recommendation 6: Apply demand management/ pricing policy on the M50 in congested periodsto discourage excess car trac volumes butusing technology to ensure it does not generatebottlenecks at toll booths.

Current congestion problems are otenexacerbated by the delays associated

with major construction works.

Recommendation 7: Re-organise theconstruction work on road widening,particularly on the M50, to reduce its impact onthe throughput o trac during congested periods.In Ireland night time construction, in line withinternational best practice, should be considered.A good positive example o best practice inthis regard would be the planning and deliveryo improvements to the Westlink in Belast.

(See Section 5.2)

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real-time inormation to users o Englands

network o motorways and trunk roads,

allowing them to plan routes and to avoid

areas currently indicated to be congested.

Recommendation 11: There is considerablescope or developing similar technology-basedsolutions on an all-island basis. The potential

in this regard should be considered in detailby the 2 Governments. (See Section 5.2)

EU Policies

Road Pricing / carbon taxes within the island

o Ireland.

Within the short to medium term, EU policies

to reduce carbon emissions are likely to lead

to signicant increases in road and air

transport costs.

Given the limited scope or modal shit within

the island o Ireland, the response to increased

road costs will need to ocus on improving

eciency in road transport and logistic

structures. The main overall impact o

carbon taxes on roads would be to reduce

the consumption o carbon based uels

through reducing both HGV and particularly

car trac. In this way an indirect side eect

would be to ease the growth in congestion,

particularly on inter-urban roads.

Road Pricing/ carbon taxes within the EU.

This cost impact will bear most heavily on thelongest distance road movements. However,uture increases in lorry weight and /or sizelimits to allow longer / heavier vehicles (LHVs)could permit greater load consolidation and cutcosts per tonne- and cubic metre-kilometre orlong distance movements to the island o Ireland3,

alleviating a part o these cost impacts.

The planned rate o road investment in

Northern Ireland needs to quicken in order

to support the Northern Irelands Executives

stated aim o balanced economic development.

Given its peripheral locality and the associated

high transport costs that accrue to companies

and consumers, there is great urgency

to complete road investments in the

Key Corridors o Northern Ireland sooner

than is currently indicated in the recent

Drat Investment Strategy, 2008-2018

(Northern Ireland Executive, 2007).

This is necessary to enable enterprises in

Northern Ireland to cooperate and compete

eectively both with those in Ireland and in

other regions in GB. It would also provide

the help that reight transport companies

need to meet the increasing demands o

customers with respect to: more requent

deliveries; the increasing use o Just-in-Time

(JIT) systems; reduced stock levels combined

with more global sourcing which increases

the requirement or delivery reliability; and

in general much more streamlined supply

chain management.

Recommendation 10: Northern Ireland shouldaccelerate the pace o investment in key roadcorridors or reight and expedite the completion

o schemes to dual the A5, A6 and A8, beorecongestion and delays escalate and add to(in part due to growth in Irish based trac)the relative peripherality o western counties.

In order to maximise the benets rom the

roads investment programmes in Ireland,

it is important that road upgrades be

complimented by improvements in trac

and congestion management. This is an area

where there have been major improvements

in Britain in recent years, providing ree,

3 The Dutch have recently approved 60 tonne 25.25 metres LHV, the Danes are trialling them rom Jan. 2008 and a UK studyon the issue should be published soon.

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Regulating the Freight Industry

The ndings and recommendations o this

report are designed to enable governments

and the reight industry to take action to

develop reight transport within the island

o Ireland with a consequent contribution to

economic growth and industrial development.

As such, there could be value in their beingexamined by the North/South Ministerial

Council which has an important role in

considering strategic transport issues

within the island o Ireland.

The ndings, however, have a relevance beyond

the island o Ireland in that they raise issues

which relate to links between the island

o Ireland, GB and beyond. There could also

be a case or these issues to be considered

within the ramework o the Transport sector othe British Irish Council (the sector or which

Northern Ireland is the lead administration)

to explore the scope or appropriate action

to be taken.

With all ports directly competing on an

all-island basis and greater synergies in the

road networks North and South, a joint

approach to certain regulatory issues could

provide mutual benet.

Recommendation 14: Adopt common vehicleheight restrictions based on the UK de-actolimit o 4.95 metres.The proposed lower limito 4.65 metres in Ireland would increase costs

or trade to and rom that jurisdiction because

access would be denied to high-cube /

double-deck vehicles which have become

increasingly popular in the UK and which have

lower erry rates per cubic metre o load.

Recommendation 12: Adoption rates o LHVselsewhere in Europe need to be monitored toensure the competitive position o the reightindustry on the island o Ireland is not undermined.

For medium value goods or those with fexibility

in delivery schedules it is likely that alternatives

to the current use o road transport will be

actively considered. This implies that Lo-Loservices direct to European ports or

unaccompanied Ro-Ro routes that economise

on road distances will gain some share rom

accompanied Ro-Ro services using the British

Land Corridor down to the Channel ports.

There is a need to investigate the easibility

o new international services that are less

road-intensive. There is substantial EU

unding available through the Marco Polo II,

Motorways o the Sea and other EuropeanCommission (EC) programmes which actively

encourage such initiatives. Surprisingly, to date,

little use o this unding appears to have been

made on the island o Ireland, when compared

to elsewhere in Europe, despite the very high

dependence o both jurisdictions o Ireland

on its maritime connections.

Recommendation 13: Both governments shouldbe proactive in publicising and providing support

to encourage greater involvement in Europeanunded programmes that are ocused onimproving international reight transportconnections to the island o Ireland, making useo the North/South Ministerial Council and theBritish-Irish Council as appropriate to progressjoint unding applications. Otherwise the impactso uture increases in international road costscould prove problematic. (See Section 6.3)

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Recommendation 17: There should be a jointapproach to the licensing o commercialvehicles and enorcement o Vehicle Standards.The response to cost pressures by local

hauliers has oten been to cut corners in

many areas o legal compliance related to

vehicle roadworthy condition, overloading,

drivers hours, etc. The existence in both

jurisdictions o dierent regulations and

permit systems or transport movements

creates many diculties or companies

operating across the island o Ireland.

This is an area in which there is also an

East/West interest, given the movement

o vehicles rom the island o Ireland to

Scotland, England and Wales and, thereore,

an area which might useully be considered

within the British-Irish Council. (See Section 5.3)

Provision o a Skilled Workorce

The reight industry has identied a particular

need to raise the proessional image and prole

o the industry. To address this issue the

Chartered Institute o Logistics and Transport

(CILT), has been working to improve the skills

base in logistics and to enhance its image.

There is also a need or continuous education

to develop the wider business skills appropriate

or a contemporary service sector, as well asor saety and energy eciency. Lessons can be

learned rom Skills or Logistics4:, the sector

skills council or logistics in the UK, which

provides a wide range o apprentice training

opportunities to younger people entering the

industry. It is developing training units that

will enable the UK Council or the Curriculum,

Recommendation 15: National speed limitsor HGV should be equalised on the island oIreland.This would include increases inNorthern Ireland rom 40mph to 50mph /

80kph permitted on high quality single

carriageway roads. On economic grounds,

the Irish government should consider

increasing the current HGV speed limit rom

80 to 90kph on the national road network

or (some or all o) motorways and dual

carriageways, or (some or all types o) HGV.

On saety grounds, the Irish government should

consider lowering the speed limit on regional

roads or (some or all) HGVs to 70kph.

Through encouraging HGV movements

in Ireland to switch to the highest quality

roads, the combined result o these speed

changes should generate saety gains

(provided that the limits are then rigorouslyenorced) because such roads have the

lowest accident rates per vehicle km.

Recommendation 16: Centralise and improve theeciency o providing permits or the movemento abnormal loads.Currently in Ireland, each othe 36 local authorities through which an

abnormal load passes, needs to provide

a separate permit, causing delay and

cumulative costs. In contrast, to move a

large load along Northern Irelands roadsrequires only 2 authorities to be inormed:

Northern Ireland Roads Service (NIRS); and

the Police Service o Northern Ireland (PSNI).

The ideal approach would be or the North/

South Ministerial Council to consider an

all-island system that requires hauliers to

contact the minimal number o separate

organisations.

4 See www.skillsorlogistics.org/en/ or urther details o the activities o the Skills or Logistics Council

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Recommendation 20: Create an up to date,behaviourally based modelling system or theorecasts used or longer term strategicplanning o both the Northern Ireland andIreland road systems.This model wouldorecast the joint infuences on trac volumes

across the road network o: improved road

inrastructure; and o potential uture charges

on lorries and cars that aim to reduce CO2

emissions. Ideally it would be an all-island

study to ensure that the vehicle movements

across the border were consistent,

particularly those or reight. This model

needs to examine cars, vans and lorries in

tandem, since they compete or the same

road capacity. This model would provide

improved estimates o local trac growth

and would identiy areas subject to uture

congestion problems or passenger andreight trac, or which suitable policies or

investments could then be examined urther.

(See Section 3.3)

Recommendation 21: To support the abovestudies and to provide a sound evidence baseon which to make uture policy and investmentdecisions or both jurisdictions, there is needor a number o improvements to the assemblyand publication o statistical data both in

Northern Ireland and across the island o Ireland.These would provide greater consistencyin statistics across the island o Ireland and

would address particular weaknesses such as

the absence o published inormation explicitly

distinguishing van trac, which is likely to

be a signicant and increasing uture source

o trac growth in congested areas.

(See Text Box 5.1)

Examinations and Assessment to approve

Transport as an additional occupational area,

ideally leading to a NVQ Level 2 Transport

qualication. This would potentially help

recruitment to address the shortage o drivers.

Recommendation 18: Investigate the scopeor increased joint provision o certied and

recognised training at all levels, across theisland o Ireland, making use o the North/South Ministerial Council. (See Section 5.1)

Further Research

We have identied 2 areas where the evidencebase or important uture decisions is weakand or which uture analytic studies shouldbe carried out.

Recommendation 19: A study is needed othe impacts on imports and exports rom bothjurisdictions o expected uture major road costincreases across the EU.This study wouldprovide an up-to-date evidence base to guide

on uture short sea shipping demand and

particularly on the balance o the associated

uture port capacity requirements or

accompanied and unaccompanied Ro-Ro and

or Lo-Lo. This study should be an all-island

study because o the unied market or

unitised shipping. The deliverable rom this

study would be authoritative guidance on the

options and requirements or uture increases

in port and shipping capacity on each o

Lo-Lo, accompanied and unaccompanied

Ro-Ro services (See Section 6.3).

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The most critical o these are:

toimprovedatacollectionandforecastingoffreighttransport;

toincreaseportcapacityandtargetbottlenecksintheroadnetwork;

toco-operateNorth-SouthandEast-Westto

regulateandsupportthefreightindustry;and

toinvolvehauliersintransportplanning.

The economy o Ireland has grown rapidly in thepast and expectations are that this growth willcontinue, though probably at a less extreme rate.Economic and population growth in NorthernIreland have also recently started to acceleraterecently. It is crucial to ensure that an ecientreight and logistics system is in place on both

sides o the border, in time and with sucientcapacity, to encourage rather than to constrainthis expected economic growth.

Conclusions

Ecient reight transport is essential to theeconomy and to the quality o lie across theisland o Ireland. Economic growth generatesincreasing demand or reight transport.Goods have to be moved reely, reliably, ecientlyto meet business needs, while minimising the

impact on saety, on other transport users andon the environment.

This study has set out to understand theopportunities, constraints and key issues orreight on the island o Ireland. Through reviewand analysis, a baseline to help understandthe trends o reight growth has been built up.A wide range o stakeholders have been consultedseeking their views on the current reight transportsystem, uture trends, and the key policy objectives

that should be addressed by government.Supported by the consultation and analysis,we have put orward a number o priority optionsor consideration in improving the provisiono reight and logistics services across bothjurisdictions have been put orward.

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1. Introduction


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1.2 Study approach

1.2.1 To address the aims o the study thework has included the ollowing tasks:

Establishthebaselinegeographicpatterno reight movements within the island oIrelandaswellasofexportsandimports;

Analysethefuturedemandfortransportin

the light o demographic growth and ochange in industrial, economic and supplychainstructures;

Examinetherequirementsofroad,rail,

shipping, air reight operators and logisticsprovidersandthechallengesthattheyface;

Examinetherequirementsofthemain

industrial sectors or domestic and

international reight transport services in thecontext o optimising their supply chainmanagement;and

Developasetofrecommendationsfor

policy, operational and investment measuresto improve the perormance and eciencyo the reight and logistics services providedor the island o Ireland.

1.2.2 This study takes a multi-dimensional view

o reight transport, examining it rom severaldierent perspectives:

Economic: The requirements ortransporting goods vary between sectors otheeconomy;awiderangeofserviceswith

dierent balances o cost and quality oservice will need to be provided to satisythisspectrumofrequirements;

1.1 Purpose o the study

1.1.1 The purpose o this study is to providepolicy makers and industry stakeholders withan increased understanding o the role o thereight industry and thereore infuence policiesthat act to increase the competitiveness o theindustries on the island o Ireland, enabling them

to compete more eectively in an ever morecompetitive World market. In particular, it setsout the key issues or reight movements inboth jurisdictions over the next 10 15 years.The genesis o this report arose as a submissionto InterTradeIreland rom the IBEC-CBI JointBusiness Council on behal o its North Southtransport group members.

1.1.2 The study examines current reight fowsthroughout the Northern Ireland and Ireland

and how reight moves between the bothjurisdictions and GB, the rest o EU andthe wider global economy.

1.1.3 The study includes:

A baseline o current reight characteristics

and projections or the uture. Through reviewand analysis, a baseline is established in orderto understand the existing and uture demandor reight. The assessment o uture demand

takes account o economic, demographic,land use and logistical developments.

Identication o the opportunities,

constraints and key issues or improving and

developing reight in the island o Ireland.

Stakeholders rom dierent economicsectors, geographical regions and all reighttransport modes have been consulted oncurrent policy measures and initiatives andon uture opportunities and constraints.

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the industry and o the challenges andopportunities that it will ace in the uture.Particular use was also made o the ndingsrom the Scottish Freight Strategy ScopingStudy (WSP, 2006), which covered similartopics to this study in the context o reighttransport and logistics in Scotland.

1.2.5 The ndings and recommendations othis report are designed to enable governmentand the reight industry to take action to developreight transport within the island o Irelandwith a consequent contribution to economicgrowth and industrial development. As such,there could be value in their being examined bythe North/South Ministerial Council, which hasan important role in considering strategictransport issues within the island o Ireland.

1.2.6 The ndings, however, have a relevancebeyond the island o Ireland in that they raiseissues which relate to links between the islando Ireland and its British neighbours and beyond.There could also be a case or these issues tobe considered within the ramework o theTransport sector o the British Irish Council(the sector or which Northern Ireland is thelead administration) to explore the scope orappropriate action to be taken.

1.3 Structure o the report

1.3.1Thisreportisdividedinto2parts;the rst provides a descriptive summary o thepatterns and expected uture trends in reighttransport;thesecondpartthenanalysescurrent

and emerging reight and logistics issues and theactions that should be taken to address them.Chapter 2 summarises past growth trendsand the current baseline characteristics o

reight transport across the island o Ireland.

Geographical: examining the pattern oreight movement at dierent spatial scalesranging rom local deliveries by vans totrans-continentalcontainerandair-freightows;

and also examining the dierent needs acrossthe island o Ireland, ranging rom the lowdensity areas in the west to the highlyurbanised areas o Dublin and Belast.

Attention will be paid to the island o Irelandsrelative peripherality within the EU, as well astheinternalperipheralityofregionsinthewest;

Modal: dierentiating all the main transportmodes (road, rail, water and air) and assessingthe potential or improved inter-modalco-ordination;

Logistical: recognising that reight transportis organised as part o the wider industrial

supply chain and that it closely interactswithotherlogisticalactivities;

Temporal: exploring trends and strategicoptionsoverdifferenttime-scales;and

Organisational: taking account o thediering circumstances and logisticalrequirements o dierent sizes and typeso company.

1.2.3 By taking a broad overview we ensurethat important developments or issues are notoverlooked.

1.2.4 Building rom the baseline analysiso current reight transport characteristics,our stakeholder consultation has then identiedsome o the other more specialised issues thatalso need to be considered. The results romthe consultation were combined with insightsderived rom reviewing the many studies

covering aspects relevant to reight, to generatea detailed picture o the issues currently acing

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Chapter 3 reviews planned investments andorecasts o uture reight growth trends.The methods adopted to carry out the consultationwith stakeholders are summarised in Chapter 4.The reight transport issues that were raised inthe consultation are analysed in detail in Chapter 5or movements within the island o Ireland andin Chapter 6 or those parts o the movements

o imports and exports that take place externally.The conclusions and recommendations or actionare summarised in Chapter 7. An overview othe responses received through the consultationis provided in the Appendices.

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2. Freight andLogistics Baseline


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Figure 2.1 Northern Ireland and Irish total

gross value added per capita 1990-2004

(constant prices)

Years

(1900 =100)

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

90

150

140

130

120

110

100

160

170

180

190

200

210

Ireland Northern Ireland

Source: Northern Ireland and Irish NationalAccounts - Northern Ireland EconomicBulletin 2007

2.2.2 Past trends in economic growth areillustrated in Figure 2.1 or both Northern Irelandand Ireland using the common measure o grossvalue added (GVA) per capita in constant prices.It shows that or Ireland the pace o economic

growth accelerated rapidly in the early 1990srom its earlier trend o low real growth,whereas Northern Ireland exhibited a muchlower growth rate throughout this period,broadly tracking growth rates within the resto the UK. The expansion in economic growthin Ireland has been mirrored by the associatedrapid increase in reight demand over the past15 years.

2.1 Overview

2.1.1 Freight issues are multi-dimensional.They infuence industries, the wider economy,and society in various ways. This chapter providesa baseline review, starting rom an overview othe economic orces that generate the demandor reight services and then examining the main

eatures o the current reight transport servicessupplied across the island o Ireland. It takes acomprehensive view and examines reight issuesrom several dierent perspectives. It explainswhich goods are moved, where they are movedand by what means. Chapter 3 then assessesorecasts o uture reight demand across theisland o Ireland as a whole.

2.2 Economic context

2.2.1 Freight transport is a derived demand -it exists to enable the economy to unction,rather than being an end in itsel. Accordingly,this baseline review commences by analysingtrends in the economy o both Northern Irelandand Ireland. From 1990 onwards, the Irisheconomy grew at a signicantly higher ratethan that experienced across the rest o Europe.From 1995 to 2003 real growth in the Irish GrossNational Product (GNP excludes prots and

dividends repatriated to non-residents -an important fow in Ireland) was around8 per cent per annum, remaining over4 per cent a year since then.

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multinationals. The main categories o exportsare machinery (particularly computer equipment)and chemicals / pharmaceuticals. The excesstonnage o unitised imports over exports,as illustrated in later sections, places hauliersrom both jurisdictions at a price disadvantagerelative to continental hauliers, but helps pushdown outbound haulage rates rom the island

o Ireland, which is benecial to Irish exporters.

2.2.4 Figure 2.3 shows that Ireland has a dierentlocational pattern o imports rom exports.A signicant proportion o its imports are sourcedrom GB, rest o the World (mainly Asia Pacic)and mainland Europe, while only 15 per centcomes rom North America. In recent years,the distance that imports have been conveyedhas increased, with GB losing some o its shareto Asia Pacic.

Sectoral economic development

2.2.3 Over the last 15 years the industrial structureo the economy in Ireland has changed radically.Exports o ood, beverages and agriculturalproducts have grown at a relatively modest rate.Its traditional manuacturing sector was largelyreplaced by one specialising in modern electronic

equipment, chemical, medical and pharmaceuticalproducts, which tend to have relatively highvalue per unit o volume. This has meant thatin physical transport volume terms Irelandhas a much greater tonnage o imports thano exports, whereas in monetary value termsthe imbalance is in the reverse direction.Figure 2.2 illustrates that the exports o goodsrom Ireland in 2005 exceeded its imports by30billion (50 per cent), though this gap issomewhat infated by transer pricing by

Figure 2.2 Ireland: imports and exports by category, 1999-2005

Millions IMPORTS

Unclassiied

Chemicals

Beverages and tobacco

Other manuactured articles

Animal and vegetable oils

Food and live animals

Machinery

Mineral uels

Manuactured materials

Crude materials

0

10000

20000

3000040000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

EXPORTS

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: CSO (constant prices o 2001)

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Figure 2.3 Ireland: proportion o imports and exports by location

0

20

40

60

80

100

%Percentage

Years

IMPORTS

Unclassiied

Northern Ireland

Rest o the World

Great Britain

Rest o EU

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

EXPORTS

2005

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: CSO

2.2.5 Exports are mainly destined or mainlandEurope, with North America having a slightlygreater share than GB or the rest o the World.The proportion exported to mainland Europe isincreasing, predominantly at the expenses oreight destined or GB and the rest o the World.

2.2.6 Figure 2.4 illustrates the sales and exportsby Northern Ireland based manuacturers oreach industrial sector. This highlights that oodand drink strongly dominate both sales withinNorthern Ireland and those to GB. The sectorwith the highest value o exports to outsidethe UK is electrical equipment.

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Figure 2.5 Northern Ireland: exports by

location by value

Years

1996

2001

2005

2006

%Percentage

Ireland Great Britain

Rest of World Rest of EU

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

55.72

9.96

17.90

16.41

59.69

9.49

12.96

17.86

56.98

11.80

11.50

19.72

57.08

12.22

10/63

20.07

Source: Northern Ireland Manuacturing Sales& Exports Survey 2005/2006

2.2.7 Figure 2.5 shows how the destinations oNorthern Irelands exports have evolved overthe past 10 years, with the main locationremaining GB. Over this period the percentageo exports going to mainland Europe hasreduced rom 18 per cent to 11 per cent, withthe proportion destined or the rest o the

World rising slightly. Part o this is due to therestrictions on meat exports enorced between2001 and 2007 as a result o the oot andmouth outbreak. For Northern Ireland by2006, only 30 per cent o total export valueis destined or mainland Europe or the resto the World, in contrast to 80 per cent othe value o exports rom Ireland.

Figure 2.4 Sales in Northern Ireland by Sector 2005/06

Millions

Food,

Drink&tobacco

Electricalequipment

Othermachinery

Transportequipment

Rubber&plastics

Mineralproducts

Metalproducts

Paper&printing

Ot

hermanufacturing

Chemicals

Textiles

Woodproducts

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

ExportTotal Sales External Sales

Source: DETI, Northern Ireland Exports denote all sales outside Northern Ireland and GB

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many low unit value bulk goods. In contrast,processing industries (such as ood, chemicaland pharmaceuticals), light manuacturing andhigh tech industries (such as lie sciences andcomputer equipment) produce and consumesignicant quantities o high value, time-sensitiveconsignments and parcels.

2.2.10 The minimisation o transport coststends to be o greatest importance or low valuebulk goods, which comprise about 40 per cento road tonne kms. For example, the cost ohauling timber rom orest to processing plantcan be as much as 50-60 per cent o thevalue o the wood. For high value goods5their producers are generally willing to paya premium or a good quality, reliable deliveryservice. Sophisticated logistics and productionsystems may be in operation or these goods

that depend or their eciency on having theright inputs in place on all occasions.

2.2.11 Irelands specialisation on exports, suchas pharmaceuticals, electronics and computerequipment that have high value density, meansthat relatively small tonnages o reight aregenerated per million o sales. This diersrom many other EU countries that still retaina substantial base o primary extraction ortraditional manuacturing industries. This evolutiono the structure o the economy partly explainswhy rail reight is now o low importance andwhy international container and erry trachas grown rapidly over the last decade.

2.2.8 The gap in the balance o manuacturingtrade between Ireland and Northern Ireland hasclosed over recent years whilst the overallmonetary volume o trade across the border hasincreased recently, as highlighted in Figure 2.6.

Figure 2.6 Total Cross-Border trade

1995 - 2006

Years

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005

2004

2006

Millions

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Total

North to South South to North

Source: InterTradeIreland (deated values - 1995 )

Freight transport demandand sectoral development

2.2.9 Understanding current and uture economictrends is a pre-requisite to being able to plan orthe island o Irelands uture reight developments.The transport service requirements o individualtypes o manuacturers are markedly dierent.Primary industry sectors generate and use

5 For example, a ull lorry load o bio-science products transported under rerigeration can be over 800,000 in value. A lorryload o computer systems equipment or tobacco products can reach 700,000, and Irish whiskey (net o tax) or prawnsover 100,000.

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- Bulk shipping continues to move largevolumes o solid and liquid goods usingspecialised port acilities that are otenintegrated with processing acilities orthese commodities, e.g. power station,uel renery or aluminium smelter.

- Higher value unitised goods to / rom

nearby European destinations are movedmainly on erries through use o accompaniedor unaccompanied trailers (Ro-Ro: Roll-On/ Roll-O).

- Unitised goods to / rom more distantdestinations in Europe and the rest othe World are transported in containers(Lo-Lo: Lit-on / Lit-o) on smaller eedercontainer vessels, with the intercontinentalmovements being transhipped to large

deep sea vessels at the major Europeancontainer hub ports.

- The highest value goods and express parcelsover longer distances are shipped by air.

MovementsgeneratedinordestinedforGB are very important or Northern Irelandrepresenting 85 per cent o total trade.For Ireland, GB (i.e. excluding NorthernIreland) is still its largest individual country

trade market (29 per cent o value) or imports,while or exports it is the second largest market(15 per cent) ater the USA. Overall these GBmovements account or 21 per cent by valueo overseas trade or Ireland.

- Most unitised trac to/rom GB iscarried on Ro-Ro services, rather thanbeing containerised.

2.2.12 The island o Irelands industrial basecontinues to change and evolve in the light oglobal trends. The composition o its GDP isalsochanging;theservicesectoraccountsfora

steadily increasing share o output. These changesaect the nature, volume and distribution oreight demand. In particular in Northern Ireland,the recently improved political situation has the

potential to provide a platorm to enable similarrapid economic growth to occur to that o Ireland,though the extent to which this growth potentialwill ultimately be achieved remains to be seen.It is crucial to ensure that this potential economicgrowth would not be quickly choked-o bybottlenecks in transport inrastructure.

Geographical aspects

2.2.13 The ways in which economic structuregoverns the nature o the demand or reighttransport services has been outlined above.Geographic structure also plays a signicantrole in determining the nature o the demandand supply or reight transport services.

2.2.14 The 4 main geographical categorieso reight movements are distinguished belowwhich dier in their service requirements and inthe mode and vehicle types that support them.These geographical characteristics o reighttransport can be summarised as:

Internationalmovements:thoselinkswith

other parts o Europe and with the resto the World (account or 79 per cento overseas trade by value or Irelandand 30 per cent o trade by value romNorthern Ireland).

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and pharmaceuticals, which can better bearthese costs o transport. These industries do,however, require high levels o transport servicequality to minimise total costs within their overallsupply chain.

2.2.17 The continuing globalisation o theeconomy in both jurisdictions requires ecient

and cost eective carriage o imports bothto nal consumer demand and or basic andintermediate inputs to manuacturing industry.I rapid economic growth is to be achieved,the channels or exports need both high degreeso reliability and competitive costs. The optionsavailable to meet these challenges are exploredlater in Chapter 6.

2.3 Freight movements - overview

2.3.1 The previous section has examined reightdemand in terms o the monetary value o thegoods shipped, we now review these movementsin physical volume terms - the tonnes o goodslited and the tonne-kilometres (tkm) moved to/ rom and within the island o Ireland.

2.3.2 The current modal position or the islando Ireland can be summarised as:

Roadfreighthaslonghadtheoverwhelming

share o inland goods movements in bothjurisdictions.

Railfreighthasdeclinedinabsolutevolume

in recent years and appears unlikely to recovermuch o this lost trac, though it stillcontinues to have a role to play or certainspecialised movements but only within Ireland.

Inter-urbanmovementswithintheIsland6:

- Most o this trac is carried by road withan increasing trend towards the use olarger HGVs (Heavy road Goods Vehicles),though the growth in goods sourcedthrough internet shopping may also leadin uture to increased use o delivery vans

- Coastal shipping is used primarily ormovements o bulk uels.

Localurban7 and rural distribution withinthe island o Ireland:

- For local movements and urbanised areas,smaller HGVs and vans are oten used toprovide a more eective delivery serviceor smaller consignments.

2.2.15 Freight movements at each o thesegeographic levels are not independent o eachother but rather are oten closely interrelatedwithin logistic chains o varying degreeso complexity. The vast majority o the roadtonne kilometres on the island o Irelandwill be on the inter-urban roads, rather thanwithin urban areas.

2.2.16 Because o its peripheral location relativeto the producers o its inputs to industry and

because o its extremely open economy, the directand indirect costs o transport have the potentialto be a larger proportion o production costson the island o Ireland than is the case in mostother EU countries. The past trend o rapidgrowth in modern higher technology industryhas partly o-set this disadvantage, throughspecialising in the production o relatively highervalue goods in industries such as electronics

6 29 per cent o Irish HGV tonnes have a dierent destination NUTS3 region (see Figure 2.13) to the journeys origin, so thatthey are certainly inter-urban movements.

7 Only 10 per cent o all road tonnes moved occurred wholly within the Dublin Region, which contains 28 per cent o theresident population.

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Figure 2.7 Percentage by mode o reight

tonnes delivered on the island o Ireland:

1998-2005

Years

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

%Percentage

Air Road

Water (bulk) Water (unitised) Rail

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: Road Freight Transport Survey, CSRGT(Northern Ireland), Statistical Yearbook oIreland, Maritime Statistics & Eurostat

Note: The modal split here is calculated basedon the total tonnes delivered rom each transportmode on the island o Ireland. The tonnagedata involves a degree o double counting o

some shipments, e.g. a containerised importwould be rst moved by a vessel to a port andthen lited onto a lorry or its nal delivery,with both legs being counted separately above.

Portandshippingservicesareofmajorand

increasing importance to both jurisdictionsbecause o its open economies and itsperipheral location relative to Europeanand World markets. In 2005, approximately54million tonnes o reight were deliveredrom abroad to the island o Ireland,roughly 9.5 tonnes per person per year.

Airfreighthasgrowninrecentyearswitha

small base in terms o tonnage moved, butit is signicant in terms o the value o thegoods that it moves and their importancewithin high-tech industry sectors.

2.3.3 Figure 2.7 shows or the island o Irelandhow the delivery o locally produced plus externalgoods tonnage was divided in units o volumebetween the transport modes during 1998-2005.

Road accounted or over our-ths o all reighttonnes in 2005, an increase o about 8 percentagepoints since 1998. Water-based services orimports and exports o unitised goods haveexpanded rapidly in absolute terms, whereasbulk maritime volumes have remained stable.Because o the short distances and relativelylow volumes o bulk movements on the islando Ireland, rail reight has struggled to competein Ireland and it has stopped completely inNorthern Ireland since December 2003.The usage o units o volume (tonnes) inFigure 2.7 masks the importance o the airmode to the island o Irelands economy,because air specialises in moving high valuebut low volume goods.

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Figure 2.8 Road reight activity in Ireland

and Northern Ireland, 2001-2006

Years

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Growth over time (2001 =100)

90

130

120

110

100

140

150

160

170

180

190

Ireland Vehicle kilometres NI Tonnes lifted

Ireland Tonne kilometres Ireland Tonnes lifted

Sources: CSO (2007a) & CSRGT (NorthernIreland). Northern Ireland Tonne kilometres andNorthern Ireland Vehicle kilometres are unavailable

pre-2004 due to a change in survey methodology.

2.4.3 A major part o the recent rapid growthin road reight within the island o Ireland isassociated with the high recent levels oinvestment in new construction o dwellings,

commercial buildings and transportinrastructure, as well as processed oodstus.For example, over the decade to 2006 themovements o construction materials on Irishroads by Irish registered vehicles increased 6-old,growing rom 14 per cent o all road tonne-kms(36 per cent o all road tonnes lited) in 1996to 31 per cent (65 per cent o tonnes lited)in 2006. There has also been an increasingconcentration o construction materials onNorthern Ireland roads, with their proportionon Northern Ireland registered vehicles growing

2.4 Road

2.4.1 Currently 98 per cent o the internalmerchandise trade in Ireland is carried on theroad network, while this rate has grown to100 per cent in Northern Ireland since 2003.This absence o any signicant competition romthe alternative modes o inland waterway or rail

is atypical within the EU. However, the currenteconomic structure, the very limited number ohigh volume bulk movements, the compact sizeand low density o activity on the island o Ireland,each militate against the economic viabilityo alternatives to road reight. Consequently,the central role served by road reight or inlandtransport in both jurisdictions appears to beunlikely to change signicantly into the uture,unless there are major economic, political ortechnological changes. This captivity to roadreight has potentially important utureenvironmental implications, as well as an everincreasing requirement or a high quality roadnetwork with sucient capacity to carry bothreight and passenger trac, throughout the day.

2.4.2 The rapid growth in industrial outputin Ireland has meant that its reight demandhas grown very rapidly or many years. In the10 years rom 1996 to 2006, tonne-kilometrescarried by Irish registered vehicles increased by180 per cent whereas vehicle kilometres increasedby 115 per cent, this lower rate being due toa switch to larger vehicles. However Figure 2.8shows that since 2001 in Ireland, all 3 series:tonnes, tonne kilometres and vehicle kilometres,have grown at similar rates. This is because othe rapid expansion in materials carried or thebuilding and road construction industry. Over thelast 4 years, high levels o growth in road reighttonnes lited have also occurred in Northern

Ireland, again this is strongly related to increasedcarriage o construction materials.

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Figure 2.10 Northern Ireland domestic road

reight activity in 2005 by commodity

Food,dr

ink&tobacco

Wood

Fertiliser

Ores

Crudematerials

Coal

Petrol

Chemicals

Minerals&buildingmaterials

Iron,steel&m

etalproducts

Machinery&tr

ansportequip

Miscellaneous

Tonne killometres (millions) Tonnes lifted (millions)

0

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

NI Tonne kilometres NI Tonnes lifted

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Source: CSRGT (Northern Ireland), includesNorthern Ireland registered HGVs only

2.4.5 However, in order to understand theoverall demand or road transport, it is moreinstructive to analyse the blue bars thatrepresent the tonne-kilometres moved, ratherthan the tonnes lited. In general, most o theinputs to construction are only moved over shortdistances so that in terms o tonne-kilometresthe commodity, building materials, is broadlysimilar in magnitude to the ood sector:(agriculture plus oodstus, Ireland / ood,drink and tobacco, Northern Ireland) and to thegeneral goods sector (manuactured articles plusmixed loads, Ireland / miscellaneous, Northern

Ireland). Those sectors moving higher value goodstend to have the longest average lengths o haul(such as processed oodstus, metal products,machinery, equipment and manuactured articles).

rom 45 per cent o all road tonnes lited in1997 to 49 per cent in 2006. The proportiono total goods vehicle kms due to constructiontrac is somewhat lower because o the usageo large vehicles or construction materials withull loads and relatively short lengths o haul.

2.4.4 The construction sector is one o the

most intensive consumers o reight servicesin all developed countries. This is illustratedin Figure 2.9 and Figure 2.10 which presentthe commodity types carried on road in Irelandand Northern Ireland respectively, though withsome minor dierences in the commodity typeclassications that they publish. The yellowsquares represent the tonnes lited in eachcommodity type. They show that in both Irelandand Northern Ireland, by ar the largest volumeo tonnes lited is in the category: minerals and

building materials.

Figure 2.9 Irish domestic road reight

activity in 2005 by commodity

Agricultural

&foodstuffs

Fertiliser

Ores

SolidFuels

Petroleum

Chemicals

Metalproducts

Minerals&

bu

ildingmaterials

Manufactured

articles

Mixedloads

Tonne killometres (millions) Tonnes lifted (millions)

0

Ireland Tonne kilometres Ireland Tonnes lifted

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

Source: Road Freight Transport Survey 2005,includes Irish registered HGVs only

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Figure 2.11 Freight tonnes lited in Ireland,

by vehicle type, 2001-06

Years

2001 2002 2004 20052003 2006

Thousands

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

4 axle artic 4+ axle artic

2/3 sxle rigid 3 axle rigid

5 axle artic 6+ axle artic

Source: CSO Road Freight Surveys 2001-06

2.4.8 Growth in overall tonnes lited or rigidvehicles (153 per cent) exceeds the growth inarticulated vehicles (112 per cent). Much othis growth in the large rigids is associated withthe boom in building and road construction andconsequently may ease in the uture i investment

in new buildings and transport inrastructure slows.

2.4.6 The annual number o new dwellingsconstructed in Ireland almost trebled to 93,000in the decade to 2006, while in the decade thenumber o dwelling completions in NorthernIreland doubled to a total o 18,000 per annum.I in the uture there is a major cyclic slowdownin the construction sector that coincides with thecompletion o the major road investments in

Transport 21 and in Northern Ireland, a relativelysmall proportion o HGV vehicle trac growthwould be removed rom the road network.However, the projected signicant increasesin population discussed in Section 3.1 are likelyto ensure that construction activity remains at ahigh level through the uture. The trac volumesin the other sectors are less sensitive to shortterm changes in the economy.

2.4.7 The type o vehicle used or reight

transportation has changed in Ireland, with largervehicles with more axles growing at the astestrate. Figure 2.11 shows that the tonnes litedby 4+ axle rigid has tripled in volume between2001 and 2006 compared to 74 per centgrowth o smaller rigid vehicles. The sametrend occurs or articulated vehicles with thelargest growth in the 6+ axle vehicle category.

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terms o easing the growth rate in road congestionor all other travellers. The main counter orcelies in the growth o Just-in-Time (JIT) deliveriesand o Internet based retail (e-commerce),both o which use small consignment sizesthat are better suited to smaller vehicles.

2.4.11 The eventual size o the e-commerce

market is dicult to estimate or the presentbut it does have the potential to lead to amajor increase in trac volumes, particularlyin urban areas, which would only be partlyoset by some reductions in car trips to retail.As e-commerce increases in scale it would,however, also provide opportunities or moreecient logistic systems using cost pressures andeconomies o scale to achieve ecient usage oa range o vehicle sizes. Long haul movementswould take place in larger vehicles and the use

o smaller vehicles would primarily be or localdeliveries based on ecient routing systems.

2.4.12 There is growing interest elsewherein Europe in Large Heavy Vehicles LHVs.Ireland in the past has tended to ollowUK changes in maximum lorry weights anddimensions. The UK government will soonbe publishing a report examining the case orallowing LHVs onto UK roads. The issue mayalso have to be reviewed by the Irish Government.As there is a relatively small proportion o dualcarriageway / motorway on the island o Ireland,the movement o LHVs might have to be tightlyrestricted i they were to be legalised.

2.4.9 In Northern Ireland, reight vehicles areclassied by maximum loaded weight. The sametrends exist (Figure 2.12) as in Ireland: the largestrigid and articulated vehicles are increasing theirshare o reight transportation at the expenseo smaller vehicles.

Figure 2.12 Freight lited in Northern Ireland,

by vehicle type, 2001-05

Years

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Tonnes lifted by vehicle in NI

Rigid over 25 Artic 3.5 to 33

Rigid 3.5 to 17 Rigid 17 to 25

Artic over 33

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Source: CSRGT(Northern Ireland)

2.4.10 In general this trend to use larger vehiclesis benecial rom a road transport point o view,provided that the average proportion o vehiclekilometres that are ully loaded does not reduce.For operators the ecient use o larger vehicleswill be more cost-eective in terms o uel usage,capital cost and driver costs than the use osmaller vehicles. It will also reduce the totalnumber o vehicles on the road needed to carrya given tonnage o goods, which is benecial in

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representing each region, though in reality manyo these movements would be relatively shortdistance movements travelling just across theboundary to the neighbouring region. The largestvolume o tonnes transported between regions isusually between neighbouring regions (particularlyDublin and Mid-East), with relatively lowvolumes being transported beyond 100 miles.

2.4.13 Figure 2.13 shows the volume o reighttonnes transported by road between dierentNUTS3 regions. This is compiled rom hauliersurveys o Irish and Northern Ireland registeredgoods vehicles and thereore excludes the tonneson vehicles registered outside the island o Ireland.For reasons o clarity o illustration, the mapshows all movements originating at a single point

Figure 2.13 Freight tonnes moved by road between NUTS 3 regions

Sources: Central Statistics Ofce (Ireland) and CSRGT (Northern Ireland) 2005

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to calculate the value or each fow. Whilst Dublinremains the region with the most inter-regionalroad haulage, its main trading partner has changedrom the Mid-East region to Northern Irelandwhen measuring the value rather than the volumeo goods. This highlights the importance to theeconomy o the high-value haulage o oodstusand nished manuactured goods, which tend

2.4.14 Figure 2.14 shows the correspondingmonetary value o reight transported by roadbetween NUTS3 regions. A commodity priceper tonne (based on UK data8) or each typeo commodity transported has been used tocalculate the overall value o each inter-regionalreight movement. This commodity price ismultiplied by the corresponding fow volume

8 Commodity price per tonne used is based on the UK values derived in Table 13.4 o the EUNET2.0 project (WSP, 2005)produced or the UK Department or Transport.

Figure 2.14 Freight value moved by road between NUTS 3 regions

Sources: Central Statistics Ofce (Ireland) and CSRGT (Northern Ireland) 2005

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2.4.16 The number o cars in Ireland has jumpedrom just under 1 million vehicles in 1995 toover 1.5million in 2003, to 2.2million in 2007.Overall the population o Ireland has increased2 per cent annually and car ownership has risenby 4.7 per cent per annum over the same period.The rapid population and car ownership growthin Ireland, which is associated with its rapid

economic growth, has meant that congestion onboth inter-urban and urban roads has grown at arate that the recent investment in inrastructurehas struggled to keep pace with up to now.The combination o ambitious investment schemesin Transport 21, coupled with suitable traveldemand management measures may potentiallyimprove this balance in the uture, though asdiscussed in later sections the current orecastso reight and passenger demand growth used

or planning in Ireland are substantiallyunderestimating current growth rates.

2.4.17 In Northern Ireland the growth pressureson the road network have been less extreme.The population has grown by 0.4 per cent perannum since 1996 while overall car ownershipgrowth has been an average o 3.6 per centper annum over the same period. However, arapid pick-up in economic growth in NorthernIreland associated with the recent increase inits rate o population growth could over timelead to the same pressures and congestionoutcomes that have occurred in Ireland.

2.4.18 Figure 2.16 highlights the busiest roadsections or HGV trac. Automatic vehiclescounters, which cannot distinguish vans romcars, generate the majority o these counts somost van trac is excluded rom these HGVlink counts. The reight volumes are lower inthe rural west o the island o Ireland, than inthe east, especially on the access roads to the

gateways in Belast and Dublin.

to be moved over long distances, relative to thelower value raw material inputs to manuacturingproduction and particularly to construction,many o which tend to be moved over shortdistances rom the closest point o potentialsupply. The broad trend in developed economiesis or the long distance haulage o higher valuegoods to become an increasing proportion o

reight trac.

2.4.15 The growth in the demand or reightmovement has created a rapid increase in thefeet o goods vehicles, as shown in Figure 2.15or those vehicles registered on the island oIreland but this gure excludes the increasingnumber o oreign registered vehicles that alsoprovide haulage services on the island o Ireland.The Irish-registered feet has doubled in just8 years since 19979. Figure 2.15 shows that

Northern Ireland has experienced slowergrowth in the feet o goods vehicles.

Figure 2.15 Growth in the stock o Irish and

Northern Ireland registered goods vehicles

1997-2006

Years

1997

1998

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

No. of registered Goods Vehicles

Northern Ireland Ireland

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Source: Road Freight Transport Survey, Ireland& Northern Ireland Transport Statistics

9 In contrast in Great Britain the overall size o the HGVfeet only grew by 8 per cent since 1996, though therehas been growth o larger artics, replacing those under34 tonnes.

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Figure 2.16 Daily heavy goods vehicle link counts

Source: National Roads Authority (Ireland) and Roads Service (Northern Ireland)

Note: The volume o reight trac or an entiresection o network (i.e. between major junctions)is assumed to match that o a single countpoint on that section. Where no count pointexists on a road section, a dotted line is shown.Count used is latest in period 2004 to 2007.

2.4.19 Figure 2.17 maps the value o reightmoved per day on the Northern Ireland roadnetwork. It is based on allocating an averagereight value per articulated and per rigidvehicle, which was calculated rom CSRGT(Northern Ireland) data on commodity loads onvehicles. This calculation indicates that on

average, the reight carried by an articulated

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Ireland are disaggregated into vehicle type,which acilitates the estimation o the volumeo rigid and articulated HGVs and hence othe approximate value o reight carried oneach road section.

vehicle is worth nearly 5 times that o a rigidvehicle. This is due to: a higher commodityvaluepertonne;amuchhigheraverageweight;

and a lower proportion o empty running.Unlike in Ireland, the road counts in Northern

Figure 2.17 Indicative value o reight on Northern Ireland road network

Source: Northern Ireland Roads Service & CSRGT (Northern Ireland)Based upon Ordnance Survey o Northern Irelands data with the permission o the Controllero Her Majestys Stationery Ofce, Crown copyright and database rights NIMA ES&LA 205.5

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2.4.22 The value transported map in Figure 2.17excludes Irish roads because the automaticvehicle counts used there do not distinguishbetween rigid and articulated vehicle types.The trend shown o higher value movementsbeing concentrated on the major inter-urbanroad network is almost certainly replicatedsouth o the border. This map highlights the

importance to the economies North and Southo having a ast and reliable inter-urban networkconnecting all o the main urban areas to eachother and to the gateway ports. The currentnetwork on the island o Ireland is as yet someway rom achieving this goal.

2.5 Rail

2.5.1 Rail reight has not been carried in

Northern Ireland since reight services wereterminated there in December 2003.

2.5.2 Iarnrd ireann Freight provides railreight services through 2 o its business units:Bulk Freight (e.g. bulk cement, mineral oresandpulpwood.)inIreland;andFastrack

(express parcels service using intercity passengertrains) throughout the island o Ireland. It utilisesboth rail and road modes o transport to providean integrated distribution service.

2.5.3 Relative to Iarnrd ireanns passengermovements, the reight business is only a smalland a declining proportion o the rail industry.Freight revenues comprised less than 10 per cento the overall mainline rail revenues o Iarnrdireann in 2006. Having in the 1980s beenas high as 4million tonnes lited per annum,rail reight in Ireland has declined (Figure 2.18)rom 466million tkm (2.8million tonnes lited)

2.4.20 The map in Figure 2.17 indicates that thegreatest value o reight is concentrated onto theKey Transport Corridors that have been identiedwithin the consultation document (RSNI, 2006) onthe Strategic Road Improvement Programme as:

EasternSeaboardCorridor:fromNewry/

Warrenpoint (Dublin M1) on A1 / A8

throughBelfasttotheportofLarne;

SouthWesternCorridor:BelfastMetropolitan

AreaonM1/A4toEnniskillen(SligoN16);

NorthWesternCorridor:BelfastMetropolitan

Area on M2 / A6 to Londonderry and on A2(IrelandN13);

WesternCorridor:Aughnacloy(Monaghan/

Dublin N2) on A5 via Strabane (Ireland N14/N15)toLondonderry;and

NorthernCorridor:BelfastMetropolitan

Area to Coleraine (A26), though the urtherA37 link through to Londonderry moves alesser total value o reight.

2.4.21 This concentration o value into the KeyCorridors arises in part because o the longerjourney lengths that are associated with the highervalue goods typically moved on articulated vehicles.These corridors also contain HGV trac to and

rom Ireland, both that directly destined orNorthern Ireland and that passing through toaccess the Northern Ireland ports. Figure 2.17also illustrates that on the more local routes awayrom the Key Corridors (e.g. in east County Downand north County Antrim) the relative magnitudeo the value o reight is rather less than therelative magnitude o tonnes o HGV trac thathas been presented in the earlier Figure 2.16.

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2.5.4 On a positive note, Iarnrd ireannhas recently:

re-introducedthetrainloadpulpwoodbusiness

or Coillte between the west o Ireland andthesoutheast;

provided4additionaltrainsperweek

or Tara Mines with a potential to carryan extra 100,000 plus tonnes o leadand zinc between Navan and Dublin Portperannum;and

modiedsurplusplatformwagonsto

provide a trainload service or containersbetween Ballina and Waterord Port.

2.5.5 Iarnrd ireann (2007) current rail reightstrategy is presented as:

The transormation o the reight business iscontinuing, with Iarnrd ireann reocusingreight operations to attract new business,develop existing protable tracs suited to railreight, and withdraw rom loss-making services.Major businesses include, bulk cement, mineralores and pulpwood. New business opportunitiesare being sought...

2.5.6 At present the Navan to Droghedareight-only line is being relaid. This involves

reusing second hand rails and sleepers,even though this line carries the heaviest trainloadson the Irish railway network to move the oresrom the Tara mine. This line improvement isnot part o Transport 21, which concentratesits investments instead on the passenger sideo the rail business.

in 1998 to 303million tkm (1.8million tonnes)in 2005 with major declines occurring inthe cement

Freight Transport Report for the Island of Ireland

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