Free Weekly Commodity Tips By Trifid Research
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Transcript of Free Weekly Commodity Tips By Trifid Research
06 OCT – 10 OCT 2014
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
MAJOR EVENTS MCX Gold futures dropped further today as highs near Rs 27000 showed no signs of
holding up. The global prices dropped yet again towards their ten month low mark
near$1200 per ounce yesterday and linger around the same mark right now. Gold
plummeted heavily yesterday, not holding on to the levels near $1220 per ounce and
currently tradesat $1207.20 per ounce, down $4.40 per ounce on the day. MCX Gold
futures for December trade at Rs 26793 per 10 grams, down Rs 179 per 10 grams on
the day.
This took air out of the gold futures and put them on the downward trajectory
yetagain. The metal tested a ten month low near $1200 per ounce last week. Spot
demand inIndia is expected to recover as Diwali approaches given that the prices are
lingering atan attractive level, lingering around Rs 26500 mark in major cities. The
latest setback infutures is unlikely to impact local spot markets much given that the
Indian Rupee hasweakened and is quoting around 62 per US dollar right now- its
seven month low. Gold carved out steady gains yesterday in Asia and Europe as
bargain buying continued to support momentum.
Bargain Buying emerged in crude oil today after a massive crash in the last
session.The commodity witnessed a heavy correction after trading near its one
month high mark as asurge in the US dollar and less than optimistic data releases in
the US took a heavy tollon sentiments. WTI Crude fell near its one year low mark but
stayed afloat above $90 perbarrel. The counter pared nearly three dollars to end just
above $91 per barrel levelsyesterday. The commodity is quoting at $91.54 per barrel
right now, up 38 cents per barrelon the day. MCX Crude oil futures are trading at Rs
5671 per barrel, down Rs 2 per barrelon the day. The benchmark Chicago
purchasingmanagers' index dropped to 60.5 points, down from 64.3 points in August.
However, the moredownbeat impact was delivered by data showing that the
consumer sentiment in USdeteriorated to the lowest level since June, as people
became more critical on assessmentof current job market in the country. Respective
index from the Conference Board droppedto 86 points in September from a 93.4 in
August. Consumer sentiments index is a criticalindicator of the status of economic
well being as consumer spending accounts for 70% of USeconomy.
Crude On
Recovery Trail,
WTI Futures
Above $91 After
Massive Drop.
Yesterday.
Nickel Advances
Most in 19 Weeks
as Goldman See
Rally.
Nickel rose the most since mid-May as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it expects prices
to recover after the metal entered a bear market this week. Rising costs stemming
from an Indonesian ore-export ban, along with lower Philippine ore deliveries to
China, the world’s largest nickel user, will help boost prices to $22,000 a metric ton in
12 months, or 37 percent higher than yesterday’s close, Goldman analysts led by
Jeffrey Currie said in a note dated yesterday. Indonesia was the top supplier to China
until it implemented the limits in January. The Indonesians don’t seem to be relenting
on the ore-export ban, so the nickel price is likely to have some upside from here.
Nickel for delivery in three months climbed 3.3 percent to settle at $16,550 a ton at
5:50 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, the first gain in seven sessions and the
biggest increase since May 19.The metal entered a bear market on Sept. 29, falling
more than 20 percent from its May high on record inventories and signs of slowing
economic growth in China. Copper for delivery in three months rose 0.6 percent to
$6,642 a ton ($3.01 a pound) on the LME. Prices capped the sixth straight weekly loss,
the longest slump since June 2012. Aluminum and zinc also advanced on the LME,
while lead dropped and tin was unchanged.
Gold Lingers
Around Ten
Month Lows On
COMEX.
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Oct 07 7:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 4.71M 4.67M
7:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 46.3 45.2
10:50pm FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
Oct 08 12:30am FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
12:30am Consumer Credit m/m 20.3B 26.0B
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -1.4M
10:31pm 10-y Bond Auction 2.54/2.7
11:30pm FOMC Meeting Minutes
Oct 09 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 291K 287K
7:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.1%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 112B
Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings
10:31pm 30-y Bond Auction 3.24/2.7
Oct 10 6:00pm Import Prices m/m -0.5% -0.9%
6:30pm FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
Day 1 ALL IMF Meetings
Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings
11:30pm Federal Budget Balance -128.7B
Oct 11 6:30pm FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
Day 2 ALL IMF Meetings
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
26400 26000 25700 26825 27260 27690
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
37000 36000 35000 38600 39500 40500
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed some correction in
whole week but not able to maintains
above 27000 and closed below the
support level of 61.8% retracement.
Now, if it able to sustain below 26500
then next vital support is seen near
psychological level of 26000. Contrary
if it maintains above 26850 then
breakout of downward channel pattern
expected which breach it upto next
resistance i.e. 27260.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 26500 for the targets of 26000
with stop loss of 27100.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts showed
bearish movement and also gives
breakout of its important support level
i.e. 38500 and closed below it. Now, if
it sustain below 37000 then next
support is seen around 35500. On
higher side 38700 is act as important
resistance level for it above which it
may test the psychological level of
40000.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell on highs for the
targets of 36000, with stop loss of 40000.
C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
5525 5400 5280 5730 5885 6000
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
411 407.95 404 417.50 422.30 428
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
sideways to bearish movement and
closed below 50% retracement level
i.e. 417 and found the support of
61.8% retracement. Now, if it breaks
the support level of 411 then next
support level is seen around 405. On
higher side if it maintains above 417
then next resistance is seen in the
range of 422-425.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 5525 for the targets of 5400-
5300, with stop loss of 5750.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
bearish movement and gave false
breakout of double bottom pattern
and took support of 5525. Now, if it
sustain below 5525 in coming sessions
then it may test the next support level
of 5400. On other hand closing some
correction may take it towards the
resistance level of 5850.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 411, with stop loss of 423 for the
targets of 405-400.
PIVOT TABLE
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