Free Commodity Market Weekly News

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28 JULY 01 AUGUST 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Transcript of Free Commodity Market Weekly News

Page 1: Free Commodity Market Weekly News

28 JULY – 01 AUGUST 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: Free Commodity Market Weekly News

MAJOR EVENTS MCX Gold futures are trading with modest gains after witnessing yet another

correctionyesterday. COMEX Gold futures extended their losses in overnight trades as

strong USeconomic data pulled the metal well under $1300 per ounce levels to test

their five week low. The counter fell sharplyafter the US initial jobless claims hit an

eight year low and stocks stayed supported.However, an uncertain global geopolitical

environment triggered some buying in Asia todayand the commodity currently trades

at $1292.60 per ounce, up $1.80 per ounce on the day.MCX Gold futures are trading

at Rs 27687 per 10 grams, up Rs 61 per 10 grams or 0.22% onthe day.

US labor markets continue to display signs of strength. The number of people

whoapplied for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits in the week that

ended July 19 plummeted by 19000 to 284000, marking their the lowest level since

February 2006. The average of new claims over the past month declined by 7250 to

302000, recording its lowest level since May 2007, the US Labor Dep. reported. The

Govt. also said that continuing claims in the week that ended July 12 fell by 8000 to a

seasonally adjusted 2.5million also marking the lowest level since June 2007.

The US Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural

gasstorage in the U.S. in the week ended July 18 rose by 90 billion cubic feet,

belowexpectations for an increase of 96 billion cubic feet.

The five-year average change forthe week is an increase of 46 billion cubic feet.

Working gas in storage was 2,219 Bcf asof Friday, July 18, 2014, according to EIA

estimates. Stocks were 561 Bcf less than lastyear at this time and 683 Bcf below the

5-year average of 2,902 Bcf.

The rise in inventories was less than expected and it helped the commodity bottom

out after apersistent wave of selling in last few weeks. Natural gas prices have been

on a downward trajectory amid demand worries and heavy stocks. The benchmark

September Natural Gasfutures rose from a seven month low after the latest data and

currently quotes at $3.852per mmbtu, up 0.05% on the day.

Natural Gas

Futures Off Seven

Month Low On

Stocks Data

Zinc Extends

Rally to 35-

Month High on

Supply Concerns.

Zinc prices extended a rally to a 35-month high as speculation mounted that global

demand will exceed supplies. Lead rose to the costliest this year. Zinc inventories

monitored by the London Metal Exchange have tumbled 30 percent this year to

653,900 metric tons, the lowest since December 2010. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

forecasts a global production deficit will widen to 154,000 metric tons next year.

“There’s some genuine supply concerns,” . “The decline in LME inventories has been

extremely sharp. We can easily reach sub-500,000 tons by the end of the year, which

should be a significant supply squeeze.” Zinc for delivery in three months rose 0.1

percent to settle at $2,390 a ton at 5:50 p.m. on the LME. Earlier, the price reached

$2,413, the highest since Aug. 4, 2011. The price has advanced 16 percent this year.

Lead climbed 1.3 percent to $2,267 a ton. The metal reached $2,279, the highest since

Dec. 30. Copper fell 0.6 percent to $7,125 a ton ($3.23 a pound), snapping a four-day

rally. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. got approval from Indonesia to resume exports after a

dispute with the government reduced output for six months. Nickel and tin climbed,

while aluminum fell in London. On the Comex in New York, copper futures for

September delivery fell 0.8 percent to $3.2405 a pound.

Gold Off Five

Week Low In

Asia.

Page 3: Free Commodity Market Weekly News

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

July 28 7:15pm Flash Services PMI 62.3 61.0

7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m -0.2% 6.1%

July 29 6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 9.8% 10.8%

7:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 85.5 85.2

July 30 5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 234K 281K

6:00pm Advance GDP q/q 3.1% -2.9%

6:00pm Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.8% 1.3%

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -4.0M

Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings

11:30pm FOMC Statement

11:30pm Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%

July 31 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y -20.2%

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 306K 284K

6:00pm Employment Cost Index q/q 0.5% 0.3%

7:15pm Chicago PMI 63.2 62.6

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 90B

Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings

Aug 01 6:00pm Non-Farm Employment Change 230K 288K

6:00pm Unemployment Rate 6.1% 6.1%

6:00pm Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%

6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.2%

6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.5% 0.2%

6:00pm Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.4%

7:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 56.3 56.3

7:25pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 81.5 81.3

7:25pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.3%

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.1 55.3

7:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.4% 0.1%

7:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 58.6 58.0

All Day Total Vehicle Sales 16.8M 17.0M

Page 4: Free Commodity Market Weekly News

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

27585 27155 26690 28090 28590 29040

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

43740 42930 42100 44760 45570 46400

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed over all weakness

except last trading session of week and

closed below the trendline around

23.6% retracement. Now, if it sustain

below 27580 then next support may be

seen around 27350. On other hand if it

maintains above 28100 then bullish

movement may take it towards the

next resistance level of 28500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

on highs for the targets of 27400-27000

with stop loss of 29100.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts last week

showed downward movement, gave

breakout of symmetric triangle pattern

on lower side and took support of

38.2% retracement. Now, if it sustain

below 43740 then next support is seen

around 42950. On the other hand if

some correction happens on higher

side then 23.6% retracement level i.e.

44800 will act as important resistance

level.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 43700 for

the target of 43000, with stop loss of

44800.

Page 5: Free Commodity Market Weekly News

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

6070 5930 5795 6200 6300 6410

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

429.30 422.75 415.30 438.15 443.20 448.50

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed

sideways movement unable to test the

support level of 23.6% retracement

and again came back to resistance

level of 439.15. Now, if it maintains

above 440 then next immidiate

resistance is seen around 446.50. On

other hand if it sustains below 424

then it may drag towards strong

support around 415.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell

below 6080 for the target of 5950, with

stop loss of 6201.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week opened on

strong note and sustained above 50%

retracement but this strength

discontinued in the next sessions

where it was unable to sustain near

6200 mark. On daily charts, it again fell

below the lower band of triangle

pattern. Bears may become active if it

sustains below 6080. Strength can only

be said if it closes above 6200.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

on highs, with stop loss of 441 for the

target of 421.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: Free Commodity Market Weekly News

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