Free Advices For Weekly Commodity Market

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18 AUGUST 22 AUGUST 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Transcript of Free Advices For Weekly Commodity Market

  • 18 AUGUST 22 AUGUST 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
  • MAJOR EVENTS COMEX Gold is holding steady after being supported in the last session though the worries over investment demand are curbing the upside in the yellow metal. As per the latest Gold Demand Trends report released by World Gold Council, world gold demand for Q22014 was 964 tonnes, down 16% year on year from 1,148 tonnes followed by a major drop in bar and coin demand. COMEX Gold futures are trading at $1314.10 per ounce, down 20 centsper ounce on the day. Prices had hit a three week high around $1325 per ounce last Friday. MCX Gold futures for October are trading at Rs 28679 per 10 grams, down Rs 9 per 10 gramson the day. As per the latest Gold Demand Trends report released by World Gold Council, world golddemand for Q2 2014 was 964 tonnes, down 16% year on year from 1,148 tonnes, central bankpurchases rose 28 % year on year, to 118 tonnes from 92 tonnes, total bar and coin demandfell by 56% year on year to 275 tonnes from 628 tonnes, ETF outflows were 40 tonnes, atenth of the outflows seen in the same period last year. Total jewellery demand fell by 30% year on year, to 510 tonnes from 727 tonnes. Technology demand came in at 101 tonnes,down 3% versus the same period last year. Total supply increased by 10% to 1,078 tonnes. ConocoPhillips (COP) and Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) are among global oil companies needing crude prices as high as $150 a barrel to turn a profit from Canadas oil sands, the costliest petroleum projects in the world, according to a study. The next most-expensive crude projects are in the deep waters off the coasts of Africa and Brazil, with each venture needing prices between $115 and $127 a barrel. As the U.S. shale drilling boom floods the worlds biggest crude market with supply, explorers are at greater risk of a price collapse that would turn some investments into money losers. Energy explorers are willing to invest in high-cost oil-sands developments because once they are up and running, they produce crude for decades longer than other ventures such as deepwater wells. Where else can you get 10 to 30 years of predictable cash flow? estimated new oil sands projects require $60 to $100 crude to make sense. The returns may not be stellar compared to some other projects but they are steady. Oil Sands are Biggest Losers From Low Crude Prices. Copper Rebounds as U.S. Factory Output Beats Estimates. Copper rose in London for the first time in six sessions as factory production topped analyst estimates in the U.S., the worlds second-largest metal consumer. Output at manufacturers increased in July at the fastest pace in five months and was more than estimated, figures from the Federal Reserve showed today. Global copper inventories monitored by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai fell for the second straight week. The strong factory number might promote some buying. Copper for delivery in three months rose 0.7 percent to settle at $6,870 a metric ton ($3.12 a pound) at 5:50 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. This week, the price fell 1.8 percent, the third straight drop, partly amid signs of stalled economies in Germany, the third-biggest user, and France. Aluminum, lead and tin advanced today in London, while zinc and nickel declined. Copper futures for December delivery rose 0.4 percent to $3.1245 a pound on the Comex in New York. The price has dropped 8 percent this year. China is the top consumer. Gold Standstill After Poor Investment Demand Data.
  • E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS Aug 18 7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 53 53 Aug 19 6:00pm Building Permits 1.00M 0.97M 6:00pm CPI m/m 0.1% 0.3% 6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1% 6:00pm Housing Starts 0.97M 0.89M Aug 20 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M 11:30pm FOMC Meeting Minutes Aug 21 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 299K 311K 7:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.7 55.8 7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.01M 5.04M 7:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 20.3 23.9 7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.6% 0.3% 8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 78B Day 1 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium Aug 22 7:30pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks Day 2 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium Aug 23 Day 3 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium
  • S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 28390 27600 27360 29050 29400 29900 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 42900 42200 41500 44000 44800 45500 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX GOLD showed sideways movement in whole week, and correction lead to took important support of 28500 and also traded near to trendline. Now, if it sustain below 28250 then next support is seen around 27900. On other hand if it traded in the range of 28800-29050 then it may lead it towards the resistance level of 29500. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 28950 for the targets of 29500- 30000 with stop loss of 28350. PIVOT TABLE G O L D PIVOT TABLE S I L V E R T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX SILVER on daily charts last week showed sideways to bearish movement and traded in between of downward channel pattern and also took support around 50% retracement. Now, if it maintains above 44050 then next resistance is seen around 45000. On the other hand if it sustain below 42900 then next support level is seen around 42200. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 42900 for the targets of 42000, with stop loss of 44400.
  • C R U D E O I L C O P P E R S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 5795 5640 5500 5935 6065 6200 S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 415 409.90 404.20 420.30 425 429 T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Copper last week showed steep fall in last two trading sessions and fell upto 50% retracement level and also closed below it. Now, if it sustain below 415 then immidiate support is seen around 61.8% retracement i.e. 411. On other hand if it took some correction towards higher side then 422 will act as important resistance level. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 5790 for the target of 5650, with stop loss of 5950. PIVOT TABLE T E C H N I C A L V I E W MCX Crude oil last week showed downward movement and gave breakout of its important support of 5935 on weekly chart. Now, If the downward movement continues then near term support is seen around 5800 below which it may drag towards 5650. On higher side some correction may lead it towards the resistance level of 5940. S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell below 415, with stop loss of 423 for the target of 410-405. PIVOT TABLE
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