Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. [email protected] Fred specializes in...
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Transcript of Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. [email protected] Fred specializes in...
Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. [email protected]
Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.
2012 Spring Weather OutlookMarch Update
• Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7• Seasonal outlook forecasting• Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification• Offshore/marine forecasting year-round• Customized weather websites• Direct consultation with a meteorologist• Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan ConsultingWebinar Questions:
[email protected] information(877) 792-3220
Spring Weather Outlook for 2012
•Worldwide water temperature trends (including El Niño and La Niña risks)
•January and February Review
•Tornado impacts during February & March...Why so many?
•Projected March Flow pattern and predicted analog seasons
•March weekly and monthly forecast (most vulnerable severe risk areas)
•April & May T/P forecast (identify most vulnerable severe risk areas)
•Analog tornado impact areas
•Soil moisture and drought outlooks for the spring
Developing El Niño?Warm Phase
Developing El Niño?Warm Phase
PDO Cold PhaseWeakening
Developing El Niño?Warm Phase
PDO Cold PhaseWeakening
Developing El Niño?Warm Phase
PDO Cold PhaseWeakening
Stronger EasterlyTrade Winds CreateEnhanced Upwelling
Of Cooler Water From Below
El Niño
La Niña
El Niño
La NiñaCurrent(~-0.6C)
El Niño
La NiñaCurrent(~-0.6C)
Forecast
El Niño
La Niña
El Niño
La Niña
El Niño
La Niña
Forecast ENSO Trends•Initiation of EL Niño by June/July
•Likely to peak out in the early part of 2013
•Likely to be weak based on cold phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and projected IOD (Indian Ocean Di-Pole) patterns forecast for the summer and fall
FORECASTS
L L
HH
H
Storm Track
Mean Flow Pattern For January-February, 2012
Lower Than Normal Pressure
Higher Than Normal Pressure
H H
Storm Track
Mean Flow Pattern For January-February, 2012
MilderPacific Air
MilderPacific Air
MilderPacific Air
Bitter
Cold
+6-10F
CompressionalWarming
2/292/28 2/24
2/18
Tornado Reports During February & Early March, 2012
3/2 -3/3
Why So Many Tornados?
Prime Causes for February and early March Tornados
Warmer Than
Normal
StrongSE Surface
Winds
Fast SW5,000’Winds
Combination creates high wind shear (i.e. rapid change of wind direction and speed with height!)
Causes developing thunderstorms to rotate and produce tornados
L
H H
Projected Flow Pattern For March, 2012
BASED ON:•Analog season support (1999, 2000)•Recent Weather trends•Water temperature profiles
BASED ON:•Analog season support (1999, 2000)•Recent Weather trends•Water temperature profiles
MARCHFORECASTS
+10 to +15F
+3 to +6F
+3 to +6F
+6 to +10F
+6 to +10F
+6 to +10F
-1 to -3F
-4 to -8F
-2 to -4F Mostly
Dry
Occasional
Showers
Weather Trends for the 2nd week of March, 2012
STORMY
STORMY
FLASH
FLOODING
RISK
STORMY
8th-12th
UNSETTLED
8th, 11th-12th
UNSETTLED
10th-14th
SNOW8th – 9th
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
Cooler Than
Normal
Mostly
Dry
NearNorma
l
Noon Thu
6pm Thu
12am Fri
6am Fri
Potential Powerful Squall Line
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
Weather Trends for the 3rd week of March, 2012
Cooler Than
Normal
NearNorma
l
STORMY
STORMY
UNSETTLED
Mostly
Dry
Mostly
Dry
MORE
HEAVY
RAIN
UNSETTLED
Projected Temperature Outlook for March, 2012
Projected Precipitation Outlook for March, 2012
Elevated Flood Risk
Projected Precipitation Outlook for March, 2012
Elevated
Severe
Risk
L
Projected Flow Pattern For April-May, 2012
COOLERH
H WARMER
L
Projected Temperature Outlook for April & May, 2012Cooler Than
Normal
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
+1 to +3F
+1 to +3F
+1 to +3F
+1 to +3F-1 to -3F
NearNorma
l
NearNorma
l
NearNorma
l
BelowNorma
l
BelowNorma
l
AboveNorma
l
Projected Precipitation Outlook for April & May, 2012
Elevated
Severe
Risk
AboveNorma
l
NearNorma
l
NearNorma
lNear
Normal
NearNorma
l
Spring Tornado Outbreak During Analog Seasons (1999,2000)
May 199950 deaths; ~1.9 Billion
April 1999
April 19994 deaths
Feb 2000 19 deaths
March 20002 deaths
April 2000 1 death
April 2000
May, 2000
Spring Tornado Outbreak During Analog Seasons (1999,2000)
Spring Tornado Outbreak During Analog Seasons (1999,2000)
POTENTIALHIGHER
RISKAREA
Projected Temperature Outlook for Summer, 2012
Projected Precipitation Outlook for Summer, 2012
Abnormally Dry (yellow)Moderate Drought (tan)
Severe Drought (red)
Exceptional Drought (dark red)
0 to 800 scale depicting soil moisture capacity0 to 200 = 75 to 100% of capacity...MOIST200 to 400 = 50 to 75%400 to 600 = 25 to 50%600 to 800 = 0 to 25%...DRY
MOISTElevated
FloodRisk
Elevated FloodRisk
DRY
DRYDRY
Questions
• Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7• Seasonal outlook forecasting• Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification• Offshore/marine forecasting year-round• Customized weather websites• Direct consultation with a meteorologist• Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan ConsultingWebinar Questions:
[email protected] information(877) 792-3220
