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Panel discussion European Summer Campus „Energy on all scales“

FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE

Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

28.08.2013

www.ise.fraunhofer.de

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Introduction

n  National debate about the „Transition énergétique“ in France.

n  President Hollande: Reduce share of Nuclear Power to 50% till 2025

n  The risks of nuclear power: High damage with low probability

n  Let‘s talk about money!

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Nuclear Power or Renewables?

The economic policy perspective

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Renewable Energy Potential per capita in Europe

Source: PBL - „Climate and Energy Roadmaps towards 2050 in north-western Europe“

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Opportunity for France: Tidal Stream Generators

n  New and undevelopped technology.

n  L‘Arcouest: first tidal stream turbine (EDF)

n  France can become the technology leader

n  Global potential over 120 GW (!) 2,2 MW - 16 m diameter

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Fukushima Daiichi: The cliff for the nuclear industry

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Global Production from Nuclear Power

Source: World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2013

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Global Installations


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The cost perspective

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Costs of 2nd Generation Nuclear Power Plants: The Past

Source: Graph by DIW Berlin based on Rangel und Lévêque (2012)

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Costs of 3rd Generation Nuclear Power Plants: The Future

Source: Graph by DIW Berlin based on Rangel und Lévêque (2012)

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Literature Study of the DIW Berlin

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Headlines from the Nuclear Industry Sector

n  03.12.2012: Costs for 1,6 GW EPR in Flamanville raised to 8,5 billion € (estimated costs in 2005: 3,3 billion €), Enel pulls out of the project

n  08.08.2013: EDF pulls out of the US-market for nuclear power

n  09.08.2013: EDF calls for a 11,5 ct/kWh feed-in guarantee (35 years, inflation protected) for 6,4 GW nuclear projects in the UK => 166 billion € equals 166 GW Solar systems at 1000 €/kWp

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PV Feed-In Tariffs and Electricity Prices in Germany

Source: Harry Wirth, Fraunhofer ISE – „Aktuelle Fakten zur Photovoltaik in Deutschland“

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The electricity market perspective

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15 Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Entso-e

Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW 12 2013

€ / MWh Period Mean Period Min Period Max Std Deviation Day-Ahead 36,12 - 50,00 108,60 21,03 Intraday 36,67 - 83,20 110,40 25,20

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Analysis of the Negative Spot-Prices on 24.03.2013

n  Over 30 GW Solar and Wind

n  Nuclear and brown coal power plants not able to reduce power.

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX

14:00-15:00 RoR Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar

Production GW 1,2 9,4 12,9 3,3 4,3 0,3 16,6 14,1 Plant Utiliz.* 32,4 % 78,0 % 71,5 % 16,2 % 22,0 % 2,8 % 54,9 % 42,4 % *compared to total installed capacity

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Nuclear plant utilization including non-availabilities

Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Bundesnetzagentur, dStatis

Planned non-availability

Unplanned non-availability

Actual production

Sum

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Conclusion

n  France has great ressources for renewables (far better than Germany)

n  Chance to create a leading edge technology branch for renewables

n  Nuclear power (from new plants) is by far more expensive than power from wind, solar and hydro systems.

n  Global market opportunities for nuclear power drop rapidly

n  France needs a resolute political decision and the right framework to profit from the economic potential of renewable energies

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Thank-you for your attention!

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer www.ise.fraunhofer.de

[email protected]

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Backup Slides

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Plant System Utilization over Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Bundesnetzagentur, dStatis

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-‐100 -‐75 -‐50 -‐25 0 25 50 75 100Day-‐Ahead Spot-‐Price in €/MWh

Utilization ratio depending on Day-‐Ahead Spot-‐Prices, 1. HY 2013

Uranium Brown Coal Gas Hard Coal

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Flexibility of conventional power plants

Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas

Cold start -‐ -‐ -‐ 0 ++

Warm Start -‐ 0 + ++

Load change rate + 0 + ++

Minimum Load -‐ -‐ + +

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Development of low and negative price periods

Abbildung 1: Anzahl der Niedrigpreisstunden (<= 10 €/MWh und <= 0 €/MWh), 1. Halbjahr

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Prices drop of Solar Modules

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The Merit-Order Effect Margina

l costs of e

lectric

ity produ

c3on

Available Net Plant Power, Increasing flexibility of power plants

Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Oil

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE

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The Merit-Order Effect Margina

l costs of e

lectric

ity produ

c3on

Available Net Plant Power, Increasing flexibility of power plants

Renewable Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Oil

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE

Price drop

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A few facts on the German electricity market

n  Annual cross power production: ~ 590 TWh

n  Total Generation Capacity: ~ 170 GW n  Solar: ~ 33 GW n  Wind: ~ 30 GW

n  Electricity market liberalization in 1998

n  Since 2002: European Energy Exchange (EEX)

n  Price and dispatch mechanism: Merit-Order Source: Peter Kaminski

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Potential emissions from fossil resources

Grafik: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy

Sources and Climate Change Mitigation

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Environmental Costs of Electricity Production by Source

Grafik: J. Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Barbara Breitschopf, Fraunhofer ISI, Untersuchung im Auftrag des BMU: Ermittlung vermiedener Umweltschäden - Hintergrundpapier zur Methodik

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Economic loss through climate induced catastrophes

Grafik: IPCC SREX, Daten: Munich Re

Pressemeldung im Handelsblatt für 2011

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History of Price Extremes in the Day-Ahead Market


-‐500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

€/MWhWeekly Day-‐Ahead maximum and minimum prices, Update: July 2013

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Historical Day-Ahead Base- and Peak-Prices


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1.HY2013

€/MWh

Day-‐Ahead Price, volume weighted & inflation-‐adjusted (2010 prices), Update: June 2013

Base hours (00:00 -‐ 24:00)

Peak hours (08:00 -‐ 20:00)

Base_h Peak_h

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Import-Export distribution over Day-Ahead Prices

Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Bundesnetzagentur, dStatis

-‐8

-‐6

-‐4

-‐2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-‐101 -‐76 -‐51 -‐26 -‐1 24 49 74 99

Day-‐Ahead Spot-‐Price in €/MWh

Import-‐Export distribution over Day-‐Ahead Spot-‐Prices, 1. HY 2013

ExportImport

-‐100 -‐50 0 50 100-‐75 -‐25 25 75

GWh

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