Fraser Mitchell, TCD · ESI SEMINAR # 6 30th April 2010 Fraser Mitchell, TCD Getting to grips with...

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UCD Earth Sciences Institute with TCD TrinityHaus In conjunction with the TCD‐UCD Innovation Alliance Public Lecture Series Transforming Ireland Mobilising Innovation and Enterprise to Become a Prosperous Low Carbon Society Climate Change in Ireland - what's likely to happen? ESI SEMINAR # 6 30th April 2010 Fraser Mitchell, TCD Getting to grips with uncertainty ?

Transcript of Fraser Mitchell, TCD · ESI SEMINAR # 6 30th April 2010 Fraser Mitchell, TCD Getting to grips with...

Page 1: Fraser Mitchell, TCD · ESI SEMINAR # 6 30th April 2010 Fraser Mitchell, TCD Getting to grips with uncertainty ? IPCC Reports ... Net solar radiation at Mauna Loa Observatory, relative

UCD Earth Sciences Institute

with TCD TrinityHausIn conjunction with the TCD‐UCD Innovation Alliance Public Lecture Series

Transforming Ireland Mobilising Innovation and Enterprise to Become a Prosperous Low Carbon Society

Climate Change in Ireland - what's likely to happen?ESI SEMINAR # 630th April 2010

Fraser Mitchell, TCD

Getting to grips with uncertainty ?

Page 2: Fraser Mitchell, TCD · ESI SEMINAR # 6 30th April 2010 Fraser Mitchell, TCD Getting to grips with uncertainty ? IPCC Reports ... Net solar radiation at Mauna Loa Observatory, relative

IPCC Reports

Uncertainties and

controversies in climate

predictions

Page 3: Fraser Mitchell, TCD · ESI SEMINAR # 6 30th April 2010 Fraser Mitchell, TCD Getting to grips with uncertainty ? IPCC Reports ... Net solar radiation at Mauna Loa Observatory, relative
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Past climates: the range of variation

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Ice Age Earth

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Ice Core Records

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• Natural climate variation can be large

• Natural climate variation can be rapid

• Natural climate is rarely stable

Greenland Ice Core

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Antarctic Ice Core

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Marine Core

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James Croll Milutin Milanković

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Greenland Ice Core

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Deglaciation Thermohaline circulation

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The Little Ice Age

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Net solar radiation at Mauna Loa Observatory, relative to

1958, showing the effects of major volcanic eruptions.

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Sulphate anomalies in Greenland ice core

Page 16: Fraser Mitchell, TCD · ESI SEMINAR # 6 30th April 2010 Fraser Mitchell, TCD Getting to grips with uncertainty ? IPCC Reports ... Net solar radiation at Mauna Loa Observatory, relative

Earth has a very sensitive

climate system

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Antarctic Ice Core

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Fossil plants and palaeoatmospheres

Stomata (magnified

400 times)

NO

OF

ST

OM

AT

A

CONC. OF CO2

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Picea glauca

Surface of 13,000 year old

Picea glauca leaf

stomata

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Pine Ridge

Pond

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Fossil plants and

paleoatmospheres

180 Million year old conifer

170 million year old conifer

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Sawdonia ornata

(Lwr Devonian)

400 million year

old stomata

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Royer et al (2004)

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Jackson and Overpeck (2000)

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UCD Earth Sciences Institute with TCD TrinityHausTransforming Ireland Seminar Series

In conjunction with the TCD‐UCD Innovation Alliance Public Lecture Series

With the support of Business in the Community Ireland and in collaboration with

Comhar Sustainable Development Council, Environmental Protection Agency, Geological

Survey of Ireland, Sustainable Energy Authority Ireland, Dublin City Council,

Met Éireann, Enterprise Ireland, Marine Institute and Teagasc

For Further details on the seminar series is available contact [email protected]

A podcast of this seminar will be available on the ESI website soon, please join the online ESI mailing list for such notifications