Franklin County Public Schools

FRANKLIN COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS

Enrollment Projection and Demographic Report 2011-12

FRANKLIN CO ENROLLMENT & DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT

Data used in this projection included:

Franklin County live births for the past 10 years Franklin County population information K-12 enrollment history at the end of the first school

month by grade and by school for the past 10 years

2


The methodology included:

Analysis of the end of the first school month enrollment by grade and for each school in the district.

Calculate percent of Franklin County’s live births 5 years prior to the current year number that entered kindergarten (percent of survival)

Calculate percent of students moving the next grade (percent of survival) for each school and for the district as a whole. The percent of survival for three trend periods was calculated—3, 5 and 10 years.

3


The methodology included:

Percent of survival for each trend (3, 5 & 10 years) was applied to the end of the first month 2011-12 enrollment to generate projected district wide end of first month enrollment 10 years into the future.

School specific projections were generated by grade for each school for 2012-13 using data from each trend.

Population projections from the Kentucky State Data Center for school age population groups were used to analyze the trend projection and select the trend most likely to represent the actual enrollment in the future.

4


Demographic Information:

5

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 203038,000

40,000

42,000

44,000

46,000

48,000

50,000

Franklin County Population and Future Population

2010 - 2030 KY Data Center 2011 Projection

Figure 1: Franklin County Kentucky Population – 1980 to 2010 – Projected to 2030


Demographic Information: US Census 1990-2010

6

Age Group Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010Under 5 2,814 2,899 2,983

5-19 9,406 9,259 9,27520-29 6,757 6,672 6,31130-64 19,893 22,972 23,83465+ 5,273 5,885 6,882

Total 44,143 47,687 49,285Under 5 6.4% 6.1% 6.1%

5-19 21.3% 19.4% 18.8%20-29 15.3% 14.0% 12.8%30-64 45.1% 48.2% 48.4%65+ 11.9% 12.3% 14.0%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source - KY State Data Center 2010– Franklin County, KY US Census by Age to 1990-2010

Table AFranklin County Population in Age Categories – 1990 – 2010


Demographic Information: Projected Population by Age

7

Age GroupProjected Pop 2015

Projected Pop 2020

Projected Pop 2025

Projected Pop 2030

0-4 2,967 2,968 3,001 3,0165-19 8,730 8,726 8,683 8,702

20-29 5,709 5,766 5,832 5,85230-64 22,726 21,954 21,274 20,68865+ 7,926 9,241 10,239 10,874

Total 48,058 48,655 @ 49,029 49,132 @0-4 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 6.1%

5-19 18.2% 17.9% 17.7% 17.7%20-29 11.9% 11.9% 11.9% 11.9%30-64 47.3% 45.1% 43.4% 42.1%65+ 16.5% 19.0% 20.9% 22.1%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

@Total is not exact same as projected total in Figure 1 due to roundingSource - KY State Data Center 2010– Franklin County, KY Projection by Age to 2030

Table BKentucky Data Center 2011 Projections

Franklin County Projected Population in Age Categories – 2015 – 2030


Demographic Information: Change 2000 to 2010 by Race

8

Total Change 2000-2010 Ages 0-17 Change 2000-2010

Race Category 2000 2010 Number Percent 2000 2010 Number PercentTotal Population 47,687 49,285 1,598 3.4% 10,776 10,665 -111 -1.0% White, Not Hispanic 41,681 41,026 -655 -1.6% 9,169 8,336 -833 -9.1% AfrAm, Not Hispanic 4,442 5,078 636 14.3% 1,018 987 -31 -3.0% AmIndian, Alaska native, Not Hispanic 59 82 23 39.0% 16 12 -4 -25.0% Asian, Not Hispanic 343 692 349 101.7% 74 190 116 156.8% Native Hawaiian, Not Hispanic 9 7 -2 -22.2% 1 0 -1 -100.0% Other Race, Not Hispanic 62 7 -55 -88.7% 41 45 4 9.8%Multiple Race, Not Hispanic 560 959 399 71.3% 291 568 277 95.2% Hispanic 531 1,374 843 158.8% 166 527 361 217.5%

Table CFranklin County Population in Racial & Age Categories


Demographic Information: Population in Relationship by Household Type - 2000 & 2010

9

2000 2000 2010 2010Numbe

r Percent

RELATIONSHIP BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE Number PercentNumbe

r Percent Change Change

Total Population in Households 45,862 96.2%47,22

4 95.8% 1,362 3.0%

Total Households 19,907100.0

%20,66

2100.0

% 755 3.8%

In Family Households 12,839 64.5%12,88

6 62.4% 47 0.4%

With Own children under 18 5,881 29.5% 5,433 26.3% -448 -7.6% Average Household Size 2.30 2.29 -0.01 -0.4% Average Family Size 2.86 2.86 0.00 0.0%

Table DFranklin County Population in Relationship by Household Type - 2000 & 2010


Demographic Information: Housing Units - 2000 & 2010

10

2000 2000 2010 2010 Number PercentHOUSING UNITS Number Percent Number Percent Change Change

Total Housing Units 21,409100.0

% 23,164 100.0% 1,755 8.2%

Occupied housing units 19,907 93.0% 20,662 89.2% 755 3.8% Vacant housing units 1,502 7.0% 2,502 10.8% 1,000 66.6% Owner Occupied 12,903 64.8% 13,391 64.8% 488 3.8%

Renter Occupied 7,004 35.2% 7,271 35.2% 267 3.8%

Table EFranklin County Housing Units - 2000 & 2010


Demographic Information: Economic Indicators

11

FROM KY KIDS COUNT 2010 Number Percent Children in Poverty 2000 1,377 13.0% Children in Poverty 2008 1,908 18.0% Median Household Income 2000 $40,011 Median Household Income 2008 $48,291 Unemployed 2000 864 3.4% Unemployed 2008 2,243 9.0%

Table FEconomic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children - 2000 & 2010



12

FROM KY KIDS COUNT 2010 Number Percent Children receiving SNAP 2000 1,085 Children receiving SNAP 2009 2,789 Children receiving WIC 2000 716 Children receiving WIC 2009 988 Free & Reduced Lunch 99-00 2,390 35.0% Free & Reduced Lunch 09-10 3,529 50.0%

Table GEconomic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children - 2000 & 2010



13

FROM KY KIDS COUNT 2010 Number Children enrolled in KDHIP 2000 330 Children enrolled in KCHIP 2009 473 Children enrolled in Medicaid 2000 1,969 Children enrolled in Medicaid 2009 3,559 Child Support Paid 2000 $2,807,516 % Child Support Collected 2000 53.0% Child Support Paid 2010 $4,610,257 % Child Support Collected 2010 57.0% 2-Bedroom Fair Market Rent (FMR)2010 $698 Hourly Wage needed to afford FMR $13.42 % renters unable to afford FMR 45.0%

Table HEconomic Conditions Affecting Franklin County Children - 2000 & 2010


Enrollment History – End 1st Month – 2011-12 - Elementary:

14

Grade BP CL ELV Elkhorn Hearn PM WR

Elem Total

Elem Projecte

d Prim-K/G 100 92 312 68 572 511 P – 1 80 87 248 79 494 500 P – 2 82 100 69 97 83 78 509 529 P – 3 71 91 66 87 78 72 465 479 4 57 72 80 95 53 59 416 422 5 66 94 84 102 75 73 494 507 Total 456 536 560 299 381 289 429 2,950 2,948Projected 443 557 540 309 377 294 428 2,948Total less Projected 13 (21) 20 (10) 4 (5) 1 2 Bldg. Capacity 575 475 525 500 550 500 475 3,600% Occupied

79% 113% 107% 60% 69% 58% 90% 82%

Table I-1Enrollment by Elementary School – End of First School Month – 2011-12


Enrollment History – End 1st Month – 2011-12 – M/S & H/S:

15

Grade BMS EMS FCHS WWHS

Academy

DistrictTotal

DistrictProjected

K-5 212 245 2,950 2,948 6 232 188 457 486 7 197 263 420 420 8 306 234 2 460 445 9 235 211 11 542 566 10 255 190 8 457 430 11 175 175 12 453 449 12 212 245 362 367 14 0 0 Total 641 696 971 810 33 6,101 6,111Projected 649 697 966 802 49 6,111Total less Projected (8) (1) 5 8 (16) (10) Bldg. Capacity 675 850 1,050 850 7,025% Occupied 95% 82% 92% 95% 87%

Table I-2Enrollment by Middle and High School – End of First School Month – 2011-12


Enrollment History – End 1st Month – 2007-08 to 2011-12 – K-12:

16

School2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

5-Year Change

% Change

Bridgeport 433 441 427 426 456 15 3.4%Collins Lane 488 497 544 534 536 39 7.8%Early Learning 0 530 544 542 560 30 5.7%Elkhorn 378 355 353 322 299 (56) -15.8%Hearn 605 322 343 368 381 59 18.3%Peaks Mill 528 309 248 303 289 (20) -6.5%Westridge 413 390 406 427 429 39 10.0%All Elementary 2,845 2,844 2,865 2,922 2,950 106 3.7%Bondurant MS 626 644 638 629 641 (3) -0.5%Elkhorn MS 684 709 716 696 696 (13) -1.8%All Middle School 1,310 1,353 1,354 1,325 1,337 (16) -1.2%FCHS 1,011 995 979 945 971 (24) -2.4%WWHS 751 775 741 781 810 35 4.5%All High School 1,762 1,770 1,720 1,726 1,781 11 0.6%Academy 44 43 60 49 33 (10) -23.3%All K-12 5,961 6,010 5,999 6,022 6,101 91 1.5%

Table MEnd First School Month K-12 Enrollment by School - 2007-08 to 2011-12


K-12 Enrollment History – 2000-01 to 2011-12

17

Grade 2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

P-K/G 430 470 497 469 495 490 470 503 531 488 572P – 1 458 404 455 455 463 495 514 477 500 531 494P – 2 401 481 438 465 455 464 483 503 459 472 509P – 3 503 436 500 438 467 448 456 480 483 443 465

4 476 444 417 464 417 452 439 442 454 507 4165 491 455 429 418 479 425 444 439 438 481 4946 423 520 463 427 414 475 439 460 450 425 4577 430 410 494 479 421 401 466 437 463 445 4208 446 418 403 499 483 423 405 456 441 460 4609 534 541 517 526 573 603 547 525 540 495 542

10 427 404 436 420 436 476 491 487 441 507 45711 402 418 355 384 377 362 428 426 410 392 45312 351 380 382 325 363 359 340 375 389 372 362

Sp. Ed. 8 0 0 0 0 40 39 0 0 4 0 Total 5,780 5,781 5,786 5,769 5,843 5,913 5,961 6,010 5,999 6,022 6,101 Change K-12 (31) 1 5 (17) 74 70 48 49 (11) 23 79 FTE Enrolled 5,565.

0 5,546.

0 5,537.

5 5,534.

5 5,595.

5 5,668.

0 5,726.0 5,758.5 5,733.5 5,778.0 5,815.0 FTE Change (27) (19.0) (8.5) (3.0) 61.0 72.5 58.0 32.5 (25.0) 44.5 37.0

Table NK-12 Enrollment by Grade - End of First School Month

2001-02 to 2011-12


Projected 1st Month Enrollment - 2012-13 – 2021-22 – 3 Trends

1811/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22

5,900

6,000

6,100

6,200

6,300

6,400

6,500

K-12 Enrollment Projection - 3 Trends

3 year 5 year 10 yearFigure 2. Projected K-12 Enrollment Franklin County Public Schools - 2011-12 to 2021-22


Projected 1st Month Enrollment Compared to KY Data Center Projections - 2012-13 – 2021-22 – 3 Trends

19

11/1

2

12/13

13/14

14/15

15/16

16/17

17/18

18/19

19/20

20/21

21/22

3 year 6,101 6,15

4 6,162 6,18

2 6,196 6,201 6,241 6,25

5 6,236 6,288 6,299

5 year 6,101 6,17

9 6,206 6,24

4 6,287 6,305 6,366 6,40

3 6,396 6,467 6,491

10 year 6,101 6,15

6 6,155 6,17

0 6,205 6,206 6,252 6,28

1 6,264 6,323 6,334

Pop 5-19 Prj9,27

5 8,73

0 8,72

6 % Enrl of Prj 3

65.8%

71.0%

71.5%

% Enrl of Prj 5

65.8%

72.0%

73.3%

% Enrl of Prj 10

65.8%

71.1%

71.8%

Table PComparison of Enrollment Trends to Data Center Age 5-19 Projection


Projected 1st Month Elem. Enrollment - 2012-13 – 3 Year Trend:

20

Table R-1Projected K-5 Enrollment 3-Year Trend

End of First School Month - 2012-13

Grade BP CL ELV Elkhorn Hearn PM WR Elem Total Prior Year

M1 Prim-K/G 86 89 296 69 540 572 P – 1 100 92 313 68 573 494 P – 2 76 93 64 90 77 72 472 509 P – 3 80 97 67 94 81 75 494 465 4 69 89 65 85 76 71 455 416 5 57 73 81 96 53 59 419 494 Total 468 533 609 277 365 287 414 2,953 2,950Prior Year M1 456 536 560 299 381 289 429 2,950Bldg. Capacity 500 575 525 500 550 475 475 3,600% Occupied

93.6% 92.7%116.0

% 55.4% 66.4% 60.4% 87.2% 82.0%


Projected 1st Month M/S & H/S Enrollment - 2012-13 – 3 Year Trend:

21

Table R-2Projected K-12 Enrollment 3-Year Trend

End of First School Month - 2012-13

Grade BMS EMS FCHS WWHS Academy

DistrictTotal

Prior Year M1

K-5 2,953 2,950 6 225 260 0 485 457 7 211 244 0 455 420 8 235 190 0 425 460 9 301 231 2 534 542 10 276 211 11 488 457 11 206 186 8 400 453 12 230 172 12 414 362 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 671 694 1,013 800 33 6,154 6,101Prior Year M1 641 696 971 810 33 6,101Bldg. Capacity 675 850 1,050 850 7,025% Occupied 99.4% 81.6% 96.5% 94.1% 87.6%


Special Needs Enrollment - 2007-08 – 2011-12:

22

The 3.9% decline of all disabled students was in contrast to the 2.3% increase for all students during the

period from 2007-08 to 2011-12.

Table SStudent with Disabilities Child Count for SEEK Calculation

2007-08 to 2011-12

Category 2007-08

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Change % Change

Severe140 142 133 134 146 6 4.3%

Moderate471 451 434 398 364 -107 -22.7%

Speech154 164 190 192 225 71 46.1%

Total765 757 757 724 735 -30 -3.9%


Free & Reduced Lunch Students - 2011-12:

23

Table T-1Elementary Students Receiving Free & Reduced Lunch

End of 1st School Month – 2011-12

Category

BridgeportCollins Lane

Early Learnin

g

Elkhorn HearnPeaks Mill

Westridge All Elem

FREE LUNCH 227 246 309 192 154 201 184 1,513REDUCED 40 33 44 12 26 17 40 212 TOTAL 267 279 353 204 180 218 224 1,725TOTAL ENROLLED 456 536 560 299 381 289 429 2,950% FREE LUNCH 49.8% 45.9% 55.2% 64.2% 40.4%

69.6% 42.9% 51.3%


Free & Reduced Lunch Students - 2011-12:

24

Table T-2Middle/High Students Receiving Free & Reduced Lunch

End of 1st School Month – 2011-12

Category Bondurant

MS Elkhorn MS FCHS WWHS Academy District

FREE LUNCH 262 365 359 257 30 2,786

REDUCED 54 51 61 66 3 447

TOTAL 316 416 420 323 33 3,233

TOTAL ENROLLED 641 696 971 810 33 6,101% FREE LUNCH 40.9% 52.4% 37.0% 31.7% 90.9% 45.7%


Students on Free Lunch - 2006-07 – 2011-12:

25

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-120.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%

Franklin County % Free Lunch

Figure 4. Percent Franklin County K-12 Students Receiving Free Lunch - 2006-07 to 2011-12


Projected Enrollment & Capacity - 2012-13 – 2021-22 – 3 Yr Trend

26

Table UProjected Enrollment and Student Capacity 3 Year Trend

Grade Level 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 K-5 Enrollment 2,950 2,953 3,040 3,041 3,031 3,057 3,011 2,990 2,956 2,965 2,958 Comb. Elem Bldg. Capacity 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 3,600 # Schools 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Ave. Enrolled Per School 492 507 507 505 510 502 498 493 494 493 % Occupied 81.9

%82.0

%84.4

%84.5

%84.2

%84.9

%83.6

%83.1

%82.1

%82.4

%82.2

% 6-8 Enrollment 1,337 1,365 1,354 1,348 1,341 1,373 1,436 1,443 1,495 1,437 1,422 Comb. M/S Bldg. Capacity 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,525 # Schools 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Ave. Enrolled Per School 683 677 674 671 687 718 722 748 719 711 % Occupied 87.7

%89.5

%88.8

%88.4

%87.9

%90.0

%94.2

%94.6

%98.0

%94.2

%93.2

% 9-12 Enrollment 1,814 1,836 1,768 1,793 1,824 1,771 1,794 1,822 1,785 1,886 1,919 H/S 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 # Schools 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Ave. Enrolled Per School 918 884 897 912 886 897 911 893 943 960 % Occupied 95.5

%96.6

%93.1

%94.4

%96.0

%93.2

%94.4

%95.9

%93.9

%99.3

%101.0

%K-12 Enrollment 6,101 6,154 6,162 6,182 6,196 6,201 6,241 6,255 6,236 6,288 6,299 District Bldg Capacity 7,025 7,025 7,025 7,025 7,025 7,025 7,025 7,025 7,025 7,025 7,025 Excludes Portable Classrooms % Occupied 86.8

%87.6

%87.7

%88.0

%88.2

%88.3

%88.8

%89.0

%88.8

%89.5

%89.7

%


Summary

27

Franklin County Public Schools are expected to experience slow enrollment growth in the next 10 years. If the trend of the past 5 years continues the school district’s number of students with disabilities may decline or at least not increase at a faster rate than overall enrollment. Based on the KY Data Center’s 2011 population projection of the 5-19 age category Franklin County’s percent of all non-white students will increase with a decline in the percent of whites.

Franklin County Public Schools

Documents

Transcript of Franklin County Public Schools