Frank Raes Climate Change Unit Institute for Environment and Sustainability Joint Research Centre
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JRC- Brussels- PF JRC Brussels Frank Raes Climate Change Unit Institute for Environment and Sustainability Joint Research Centre European Commission 28 June 2005, Brussels on the link between global (climate) change research and policy making
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on the link between global (climate) change research and policy making. Frank Raes Climate Change Unit Institute for Environment and Sustainability Joint Research Centre European Commission. 28 June 2005, Brussels. Kyoto Protocol into force. Kyoto Protocol. UNFCCC. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Frank Raes Climate Change Unit Institute for Environment and Sustainability Joint Research Centre
JRC- Brussels- PF
JRC Brussels
Frank Raes
Climate Change Unit
Institute for Environment and SustainabilityJoint Research CentreEuropean Commission
28 June 2005, Brussels
on the link between global (climate) change research
and policy making
JRC- Brussels- PF
JRC Brussels charles david keeling
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socioeconomic
drivers
fossil fueluse
emissions < - 8%cheapest controls ?
yesno
GHG emissions
cost effectiveclimate change
policy
energy demand &
supply
costc
definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico
PROTOCOLLO DI KYOTO
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“economy” and climate changesome numbers
• economic damage of floods in 2002: ~17 billion € (EEA)• crop loss and forest fires in 2003: ~ 13 billion € (UNEP)• heat related casualties in 2003: ~ 35.000 (UNEP) (35 billion € …)
• cost of implementing Kyoto Protocol in EU25: ~ 1 to 3.5 billion €/yr
• cost for security measures at 2004 Olympic Games: ~ 1 billion €• money spent by Italians in Lotterie, etc in 2004: 23 billion €• net profit made by BP in 2004: 12 billion €• Tsunami solidarity funds promised by world: 3 - 5 billion €
World can cope with (= adapt to) present effects of climate change!BUT: are there limits to adaptation to future climate change?
Implementing the Kyoto Protocol (= start mitigation) is feasible!BUT: how much mitigation is needed to stabilize climate
at “safe” levels ?
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socioeconomic
drivers
fossil fueluse
emissions < - 8%cheapest controls ?
yesno
GHG emissions
cost effectiveclimate change
policy
energy demand &
supply
costc
definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico
PROTOCOLLO DI KYOTO
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socioeconomic
drivers
fossil fueluse
yesno
GHG emissions
cost effectiveclimate change
policy
energy demand &
supply
costc
definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico
post KYOTO
avoid dangerousclimate change ?
yesno
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socioeconomic
drivers
fossil fueluse
yesno
GHG emissions
cost effectiveclimate change
policy
energy demand &
supply
costc
definizione di una politica per combattere il cambiamento climatico
post KYOTO
EU 2 C target yesno
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stabilization at 450 CO2 equivalent~50 % probability to achieve 2 ºC
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CO2 emission reductions needed to achieve EU 2 ºC objective
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current technologies thatreduce each 25 GtC over next 50 yrs-efficient cars-reduced car use-efficient buildings-coal to methane switch-coal + CO2 capture and storage-nuclear energy-wind energy -photo-voltaic-bio-fuels-reduced deforestation, reforestation-conservation tillage
Pacala & Socolow, Science 305, 2004
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socioeconomic
drivers
fossil fueluse
levels & effects ofconventionalAir Pollution
effects < thresholds ?cheapest controls ?
yes
no
end-of-pipe control
technology
emissions < - 8%cheapest controls ?
yesno
GHG emissions
integratedcost effective
policy
energy demand &
supply
costc cost saving
definizione di una politica integrata
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socioeconomic
drivers
fossil fueluse
levels & effects ofconventionalAir Pollution
effects < thresholds ?cheapest controls ?
yes
no
end-of-pipe control
technology
avoid dangereousclimate change ?
yesno
GHG emissions
integratedcost effective
policy
energy demand &
supply
costc cost saving
definizione di una politica integrata
JRC- Brussels- PF
JRC Brussels
fossil fueluse
levels & effects ofconventionalAir Pollution
effects < thresholds ?cheapest controls ?
yes
no
end-of-pipe control
technology
cost effectiveair pollution
policy
definizione di una politica per combattere l’inquinamento atmosferico
e.g.: National Emission Ceilings Directive
costA
JRC- Brussels- PF
JRC Brussels
socioeconomic
drivers
fossil fueluse
levels & effects ofconventionalAir Pollution
effects < thresholds ?cheapest controls ?
yes
no
end-of-pipe control
technology
emissions < - 8%cheapest controls ?
yesno
GHG emissions
integratedcost effective
policy
energy demand &
supply
costc cost saving
definizione di una politica integrata
JRC- Brussels- PF
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local scales regional scales global scales
top-down bottom up
fundamental research applied research
research policy making
EUROTRAC IGACEC DG RTD projects
EC DG ENVCLTRAPFCCC
EC DG RTD projectsEUROTRAC
IGAC
EUROTRAC IGAC
IGAC EUROTRAC WGE’s EMEP
COMPARTIMENTALIZATION IN ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH Anno 2001
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ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH Anno 2005
the overall goals of ACCENT are:
• to promote a common European strategy for integrated researchlocal to global scalesatmospheric change / economic drivers
• to develop durable means of communication and collaboration between a broad research community
• to optimize the interactions with policy-makers and the public
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Linking Science and Policy
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Climate Change Science and Policy
FCCC
ozone holeUS heat wave
CO2 recordMauna Loa
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THE AMSTERDAM DECLARATIONGLOBAL CHANGE priority
The busines-as-usual way of dealing with the Earth is unsustainable and has to be replaced by deliberate strategies of good management
A new system of global environmental science is required which must integrate across disciplines, environment and development issues, and the natural and social sciences
July 2001 WCRP IGBP IHDP DIVERSITAS
= INTERACTION between SCIENCE and POLICY !
= POLICY !
