Slide 1

Francisco Lemos Slide 2 Thanks President of the Juri - Prof. Ana Cristina Amaro (Phd) (Examiner) Pedro Tavares (Phd) (Maters Thesis Orienter) Pedro Coimbra Martins (Phd) (Maters Thesis Co-Orienter)Paulo Leito (City Council Official) (Maters Thesis Supervisor) Cmd. Costa Ramos (Aeronatical Engeneering Technician) Slide 3 Keywords Bissaya Barreto Municipal Airfield Coimbra City Council Applied Mathematics Linear Optimization Operations Research Data Envelopment Analysis Slide 4 Financial envelope Cost structure: Anual current expense aprox. 150.000,00 (Financial + HR) No income, no landing, parking or fuel supply fees Slide 5 Functional structure Pilot School - Aero Clube de Coimbra Aeronautic maintenance Industrias Aeronuticas de Coimbra Slide 6 Functional structure Fire prevention squadron Functional runway landing of Brazils President, Dilma Roussef Slide 7 Architecture project for development 5 tsages with a total of 9 infrastructures 1st stage: Parking space and fuel supply 2nd stage: runway extension and transfer of safe house 3rd stage: Parking space 4th stage: Parking space and access to runway 5th stage: Parking space and hangar layout Slide 8 Whats the Problem? Minimum ammount of capital q decreasing linearly with time thats necessary to execute the project? Slide 9 Initial Scenario Necessary: Execute the infrastructure project in 15 years Pay the project in 25 years With: Bank financing European Union funding Income from investments being made Slide 10 Formulation Data Project stages ST0 = 25.000,00 (initial capital at t = 0, or starting cash flow) Slide 11 i (Stage)Wheres the income coming? Expected income value 1HANGAR RENT6000,154505498,96 1HANGAR RENT5100,154505424,116 1HANGAR RENT2550,154505212,058 1HANGAR RENT2550,154505212,058 1HANGAR RENT2550,154505212,058 5HANGAR RENT8100,154505673,596 5HANGAR RENT8100,154505673,596 5HANGAR RENT8100,154505673,596 9HANGAR RENT12000,154505997,92 9HANGAR RENT12000,154505997,92 9HANGAR RENT12000,154505997,92 9HANGAR RENT12000,154505997,92 9HANGAR RENT9000,154505748,44 9HANGAR RENT2550,154505212,058 9HANGAR RENT2550,154505212,058 9HANGAR RENT2550,154505212,058 1Parking4425410510620 5Parking280541056732 6Parking5068,5410512164,4 6Parking1937,541054650 Total43122,73 Formulation Data Income prediction Slide 12 i (Stage)Investiment 1 Parking and hangars12.179,20 5Parking space8.752,76 6Parking16.814,38 9Hangars5.376,22 Total43.122,56 Formulation Data Income prediction Slide 13 t [year] 1060000,00810 2060000,00810 3060000,00810 4060000,00810 5060000,00810 6060000,00810 7060000,00810 8060000,00810 9060000,00810 060000,00810 11060000,00810 12060000,00810 13060000,00810 14060000,00810 15060000,00810 (interests) (sum of debt payment equals the loans amount) Formulation Data Financing constraints Slide 14 k Human resource expenses 1Air trafic controller26.200,001251,5 2 Air trafic controller being retired in five years 8.610,00151,5 3 Airfield director (one year contract) 9.804,00110 4Financial costs110.192,821251,5 Formulation Data Human resources and financial costs Slide 15 Formulao Data Project stage constraints Slide 16 Formulation Data Project stage constraints Slide 17 Formulation Compilation Slide 18 Slide 19 Formulao Dados e Programao Linear Inteira Mista Restries adicionais Slide 20 Formulation Sustainability constraint Slide 21 Efficiency analysis Data envelopment analysis Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), formulated by CHARNES et al. Input: q Outputs: Net Present Value (NPV) Investment income Z Investment in internal processes and internal learning (PAPC) Slide 22 Scenario results Initial scenario(5.1.1) q [] RI [] (Total income from investment) NPV [] D [] (Total of expenses) P [] (Total loans) J [] (Total interest paid) Z [] (Deficit) 250.744,37998.621,86121.234,734.154.545,59113.562,4511.023,52151.851,36 Slide 23 Initial scenario(5.1.1) Infrastructure Year123456789 1110000000 2001111000 3000000101 4000000000 5000000000 6000000000 7000000000 8000000000 9000000000 10000000000 11000000000 12000000000 13000000000 14000000000 15000000010 Scenario results Slide 24 Reduction of expenses (5.1.2) k Human resource expenses 1 Air trafic controller 26.200,001251,5 2 Air trafic controller being retired in five years 8.610,00151,5 3 Airfield director (one year contract) 9.804,00110 4 Financial costs 110.192,82125-10 Scenario results Slide 25 Resultados e anlise de Scenarios Reduction of expenses(5.1.2) q [] RI [] (Total income from investment) NPV [] D [] (Total of expenses) P [] (Total loans) J [] (Total interest paid) Z [] (Deficit) 107.220,96845.854,84189.979,721.864.637,23617.193,30282.360,403.120,10 Slide 26 Reduction of expenses(5.1.2) Infrastructure Year123456789 1000000000 2100000000 3000000000 4010000000 5001000000 6000110100 7000001001 8000000000 9000000000 10000000000 11000000000 12000000000 13000000000 14000000000 15000000010 Scenario results Slide 27 No European Union Funding with expense reduction(5.1.3) StageiPreceding stage 11 Parking and hangars54.500,000- 12 Fuel supply120.000,00 0 - 23 Runway extension104.000,00 0 1 24 Transfer of safe house50.000,00 0 1 35 Parking space30.300,00 0 2 46 Access to parking87.400,00 0 3 47 Parking space5.000,00 0 3 58 Parking space69.750,00 0 4 59 Hangar layout67.700,00 0 4 Scenario results Slide 28 No European Union Funding with expense reduction (5.1.3) q [] RI [] (Total income from investment) NPV [] D [] (Total of expenses) P [] (Total loans) J [] (Total interest paid) Z [] (Deficit) 141.769,19718.131,9472.561,751.864.637,23470.375,88132.844,533.120,10 Scenario results Slide 29 No European Union Funding with expense reduction(5.1.3) Infrastructure Year123456789 1100000000 2000000000 3000000000 4000000000 5000000000 6000000000 7000000000 8010000000 9000100000 10001010000 11000001000 12000000000 13000000000 14000000101 15000000010 Scenario results Slide 30 Expense reduction and replaning (5.1.4) Stage i Preceding stage 11 Parking and hangars54.500,0080- 12 Fuel supply120.000,0080- 23 Runway extension104.000,00801 24 Transfer of safe house50.000,00801 35 Parking space30.300,00802 46 Access to parking87.400,00803 47 Parking space5.000,00803 58 Parking space69.750,00804 59 Hangar layout67.700,00804 210 Hangar building100.000,00801 Scenario results Slide 31 Expense reduction and replaning(5.1.4) iDesignao da taxaValor[] 1HANGAR RENT6000,154505498,96 1HANGAR RENT5100,154505424,12 10HANGAR OCCUPATION RENT2550,456505636,17 1HANGAR RENT2550,154505212,06 1HANGAR RENT2550,154505212,06 5HANGAR RENT8100,154505673,60 5HANGAR RENT8100,154505 673,60 5HANGAR RENT8100,154505 673,60 9HANGAR RENT12000,154505997,92 9HANGAR RENT12000,154505997,92 9HANGAR RENT12000,154505997,92 9HANGAR RENT12000,154505997,92 9HANGAR RENT9000,154505748,44 9HANGAR RENT2550,154505 212,06 9HANGAR RENT2550,154505 212,06 9HANGAR RENT2550,154505 212,06 1Parking4425410510.620,00 5Parking280541056.732,00 6Parking5068,5410512.164,40 61937,541054.650,00 Total43.546,87 Scenario results Slide 32 Expense reduction and replaning(5.1.4) q [] RI [] (Total income from investment) NPV [] D [] (Total of expenses) P [] (Total loans) J [] (Total interest paid) Z [] (Deficit) 109.925,24839.572,11195.903,541.864.637,23662.863,38291.234,542.695,98 Scenario results Slide 33 Expense reduction and replaning(5.1.4 Infrastructure Year12345678910 10000000000 21000000000 30000000000 40100000000 50000000001 60011000000 70000110000 80000001010 90000000000 0000000000 110000000000 120000000000 130000000000 140000000000 150000000100 Scenario results Slide 34 Expense reduction with replaning and investment in internal processes and learning,PAPC (5.1.5) Stage i Preceding stage 11 Parking and hangars 54.500,0080- 12 Fuel supply 120.000,0080- 23 Runway extension 104.000,00801 24 Transfer of safe house 50.000,00801 35 Parking space 30.300,00802 46 Access to parking 87.400,00803 47 Parking space 5.000,00803 58 Parking space 69.750,00804 59 Hangar layout 67.700,00804 210Hangar building 100.000,00801 111Promotion plan + Information System + Cooperation protocols stage 1 10.000,0080- 212Promotion plan + Information System + Cooperation protocols stage 2 10.000,00801 313Promotion plan + Information System + Cooperation protocols stage 3 10.000,00802 414Promotion plan + Information System + Cooperation protocols stage 4 10.000,00803 515Promotion plan + Information System + Cooperation protocols stage 5 10.000,00804 Scenario results Slide 35 Expense reduction with replaning and investment in internal processes and learning,PAPC (5.1.5) kDesignao da despesa 1 Air trafic controller 26.200,001251,5 2 Air trafic controller being retired in five years 8.610,00151,5 3Airfield director (one year contract)9.804,001251,5 4Financial costs110.192,82125-10 Scenario results Slide 36 Expense reduction with replaning and investment in internal processes and learning,PAPC (5.1.5) iDesignao da taxaValor[] 1HANGAR RENT 6000,154805 831,60 1HANGAR RENT 5100,154805 706,86 10HANGAR OCCUPATION RENT 2550,462805 1.060,29 1HANGAR RENT 2550,154805 353,43 1HANGAR RENT 2550,154805 353,43 5HANGAR RENT 8100,154805 1.122,66 5HANGAR RENT 8100,154805 1.122,66 5HANGAR RENT 8100,154805 1.122,66 9HANGAR RENT 1.2000,154805 1.663,20 9HANGAR RENT 1.2000,154805 1.663,20 9HANGAR RENT 1.2000,154805 1.663,20 9HANGAR RENT 1.2000,154805 1.663,20 9HANGAR RENT 9000,154805 1.247,40 9HANGAR RENT 2550,154805 353,43 9HANGAR RENT 2550,154805 353,43 9HANGAR RENT 2550,154805 212,06 1Parking 4.4254105 1.0620,00 5Parking 2.8054105 6732,00 6Parking 50.68,54105 1.2164,40 6Parking 1.937,54105 4.650,00 Total49.659,108 Scenario results Slide 37 Expense reduction with replaning and investment in internal processes and learning,PAPC (5.1.5) q [] RI [] (Total income from investment) NPV [] D [] (Total of expenses) P [] (Total loans) J [] (Total interest paid) Z [] (Deficit) 120.507,42972.952,09180.312,312.149.571,12576.094,36267.247,7510.457,22 Scenario results Slide 38 Expense reduction with replaning and investment in internal processes and learning,PAPC(5.1.5) Infrastructure Year123456789101112131415 1000000000010000 2100000000000000 3000000000000000 4010000000000000 5000100000100000 6001010000001100 7000001101000010 8000000000000000 9000000000000000 10000000000000000 11000000000000000 12000000000000000 13000000000000000 14000000000000000 15000000010000001 Scenario results Slide 39 Resultados e anlise de Scenarios RI vs PAPC (5.2.1) DMU/scenario InputOutputs q []RI []PAPC 5.1.1. 250744,3674998621,86 1 5.1.2. 107220,9553845854,84 1 5.1.3. 141.769,19718.131,941 5.1.4. 109925,2415839572,11 1 5.1.5. 120.507,42972.952,0910 DMU/scenario Eficiency [%]Target q []Target RI [] Target PAPCq [%]RI [%]PAPC [%] 5.1.1. 49,33123686,81998621,8610,26-50,70926,4 5.1.2. 97,71104765,47845854,848,69-2,30769,4 5.1.3. 62,74 88946,03718131,947,38-37,30638,1 5.1.4. 94,60 103987,31839572,118,63-5,40762,9 5.1.5.100,00 120507,42972952,0910000 Slide 40 RI vs PAPC (5.2.1) Scenario results Slide 41 NPV vs PAPC(5.2.2) DMU/Scenari o InputOutputs qNPVPAPC 5.1.1. 250744,3674 121234,7281 5.1.2. 107220,9553 189979,7171 5.1.3. 141.769,1972.561,751 5.1.4. 109925,2415195903,544 1 5.1.5. 120.507,42180.312,3110 DMU/ Scenario Eficiency [%]Target q [] Target VAL [] Target PAPCq [%]VAL [%]PAPC [%] 5.1.1.27,4568838,62121234,731-72,500 5.1.2.99,48106665,65189979,721-0,500 5.1.3.29,6742056,2472561,751-70,300 5.1.4.100109925,24195903,541000 5.1.5.100120507,42180312,3110000 Scenario results Slide 42 NPV vs PAPC(5.2.2) Scenario results Slide 43 Z vs PAPC(5.2.3) DMU/Scenari o InputOutputs qZPAPC 5.1.1. 250744,3674-151851,36 1 5.1.2. 107220,9553-3120,103 1 5.1.3. 141.769,19-3.120,101 5.1.4. 109925,2415-2695,983 1 5.1.5. 120.507,42-10.457,2210 DMU/ Scenario Eficiency [%]Target q [] Target Z [] Target PAPCq [%]Z [%] PAPC [%] 5.1.1.4,8112050,74-1045,721-95,2-99,30 5.1.2.11,2412050,74-1045,721-88,8-66,50 5.1.3.8,512050,74-1045,721-91,5-66,50 5.1.4.10,9612050,74-1045,721-89-61,20 5.1.5.100120507,42-10457,2210000 Scenario results Slide 44 Z vs PAPC(5.2.3) Slide 45 Financial analysis (5.2.4) DMU/ ScenarioEficiency [%]Target q []Target Z []Target VAL []Target RI []q [%]Z [%]VAL [%]RI [%] 5.1.1.49,33123686,81998621,86185069,56-10733,12-50,7052,7-92,9 5.1.2.100107220,96845854,84189979,72-3120,10000 5.1.3.64,0790837718131,94158671,8-3120,1-35,90118,70 5.1.4.100109925,24839572,11195903,54-2695,980000 5.1.5.100120507,42972952,09180312,31-10457,220000 Scenario results Slide 46 Model conclusions Whats left to explore? Variable limitations? Software package distribution ? Other applications: Highways, hospital, stadiums? Production of pharmaceuticals? Software development? Slide 47 Sustainability study conclusions Gradual decrease of expense Acompany infrastructure execution with the understanding of internal processes and learning. European Union funding Slide 48 The End Thank you