Fragile States Report PARIS21 Steering committee Pali Lehohla Co Chair PARIS21

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Fragile States Report

PARIS21 Steering committeePali Lehohla

Co Chair PARIS21

Statistician General

South Africa

05-06-2009


This presentation covers

• What is a state

• Crisis, failed and fragile state

• Indicators of vulnerability

• Types of Interventions

• Country experiences

• State legitimacy

• Country profiles and what can we learn

Overview


• State is a political entity is recognised by other states as the

highest political authority in a given territory and is treated as an equal among the (international) community of states.

• No need for diplomatic recognition by other states, only a recognition that a state exists.

• Thomas Hobbes, a 17th century political philosopher defined a state using the concept of a social contract, that is, which focuses on the relationship between the state and citizen.

• Niccolò Machiavelli, and Max Weber focused on physical force as the foundational element of a state.

State: what is a state?


• A crisis state is a state under acute stress, where reigning institutions face serious contestation and are potentially unable to manage conflict and shocks.

• A failed state is a state whose central government is so weak or ineffective that it has little practical control over much of its territory, leading to collapse of the state.

• A fragile states is a state that is failing, or at risk of failing, with respect to authority, comprehensive service entitlements and legitimacy.

• A post-conflict state is a state which has emerged out of conflict and is progressively establishing institutions and making resources available to sustain itself completely out of crisis and fragility.

Crisis, failed and fragile, post-conflict state


Political Indicators• Criminalization and/or delegitimisation of the state• Progressive deterioration of public service• Widespread violation of human rights• Security apparatus as ‘state within a state’• Rise of factionalised elites• Intervention of other states or external factors

Social Indicators• Demographic pressures• Massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples• Legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance• Chronic and sustained human flight

Economic Indicators• Uneven economic development along group lines• Sharp and/or severe economic decline

Indicators of state vulnerability


• Conflict situation: risk mitigating• Diagnostics• Therapeutic• Restoration

• Post-conflict or non-conflict situation: risk management• Diagnostic• Preventative

Conflict vs Non-conflict situation


Sudan and conflict

• Sudan on war for last 50 years (1955-2005)• CPA signed in 2005• CPA conceived as roadmap to the future of

the country• CPA calls for equity, equality, Justus, fare

distribution of power and wealth and sustainable development

• Census is the basic tool for achieving the said goals


Sudanese Census

• Census stated in CPA (constitution article # 215 A Census to be conducted by the end of 2nd year of interim period}.

• Census should be monitored by an independent body

• MOC idea was materialized

• Upper House named the Chair of MOC


Afghanistan …

DATA are needed in every stage of strategy preparation, program/project implementation, monitoring, and evaluation

CSO • Mandated to collect, analyze, and

disseminate timely and accurate data

• Has a crucial role in the ANDS process

• However, CSO, along with other institutions in the country, was destroyed during the war (physical and statistical infrastructures)


ROLE of STATISTICS (contn)…

• While physical infrastructure may be

replaced, statistical infrastructure including improving technical capacity to undertake data collection activity is the most challenging job not only for CSO in Afghanistan but for every statistical system in any post conflict situation.

• It requires some very difficult but important cultural changes, which often involve politics


CHALLENGES AHEAD of CSO …

• There were only few data collection activities that were undertaken by CSO in the past

• Hence, CSO was not able to develop its capacity

• Although there were some assistance received from donors, e.g. UNFPA for the conduct of the census, UNICEF for the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey and training for the staff, ADB for statistical training, and other donors, building the capacity of the staff will not happen overnight.


Conflicts in Rwanda 1959-1994 (in brief)

• In 1959: Massacres and Refuges, most of them in neighbouring countries (1st round)

• In 1973: Massacres and 2nd round of refuges

• 1990-1994: Conflicts leading to the genocide in 1994


Post-genocide

• 800,000 to 1 million people killed

• About 2 million refuges in the camps of neighbouring countries, who returned massively in Rwanda in1996-1997

• About 1 million people became ‘internally displaced’ in their own country


• About 1 million of former exiled persons returned to Rwanda, for most of them, it was after many decades of being in exile.

• Deep demographic changes resulting directly from genocide will necessary have a serious impact on all the country’s social and economic components.

• Aggravation of the already endemic poverty for a mostly rural population


• New categories of population, notably with important proportion of HH headed by children and/or women.

• When the country restored peace and order late in 1994, the government has set ambitious plans with the purpose of rectifying and healing the damages caused by the conflicts leading to the genocide.

• There was urgent need of a lot of statistical information to show progressive orientations of trends.


Cambodia

1948 to 1953, Department of Cambodia was established as a central statistics office.

1953, Department of Statistics and Economic Study.

1963 to 1975, National Institute of Statistics and Economic Research under the Ministry of Planning.

1975 to 1979, statistical system was completely destroyed by the Khmer Rouge regime.

Since 1979, Department of Statistics was re-established under the Ministry of Finance and it was assigned to the Ministry of Planning in 1981.

1994 to present, it was upgraded to the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) under Ministry of Planning.


Impact of war and civil disaster on statistical system

1975 to 1979, statistics work came to a complete stop.

All of the statistics documents, records were destroyed together with publications, books.

The city was evacuated; everybody was working as farmers in the rural areas.

No one statistician remained, the qualified statisticians and statistical cadres have either died or left the country.

After the Khmer Rouge Regime, the Department of Statistics restarted with 21 young staff in 1979. We need to rebuild everything from scratch.


Rebuild the Cambodian statistical system

From 1992, the quality and coverage of economic and socio-demographic statistics have gradually improved.

A number of donor led data collection and compilation activities.

ADB provided technical assistance to rehabilitate the statistical system of Cambodia from 1992 to 2003, including national accounts, CPI, training, Socio-Economic Surveys 1993/1994 and 1996, Establishment Surveys

1993, 1995 and 2000.

ADB and IMF provided extensive support on capacity building and data collections for macro economic and industrial statistics.

UNDP, SIDA and WB have funded Socio-Economic Survey 2003/2004 .

JICA assisted establishment listing in Phnom Penh and then expands to major provinces. We are going to conduct a Census of

Establishments in 2011 which was primary supported by JICA.


• Colonisation of the area• Arrival of Dutch settlers arrived in 1652• The early settlers came Netherlands, Germany, included French

Huguenots• Over a period of 150 years they became Afrikaners speaking Afrikaans• 1820 British settlers arrival• Slaves from Bengal, South India, Ceylon (Sri Lanka), Madagascar

Indonesian archipelago and the East African coast• Last war of Black resistance: Bambata war of 1905/06• Rivalry between European powers• 1910 South Africa becomes a single state within the sphere of British

hegemony• Colonialism of a special type• 1948 apartheid finally installed• Black poiltical formations banned• Racial-ethnic separate development

South Africa: origins of conflict


• Social dynamics within South Africa

• Trade Unions• Black Consciousness• Soweto uprising• United Democratic Front

• International developments, including in Southern Africa• Economic sanction• Eminent Persons Group• Collapse of the cordon sanitaire in Southern Africa• Demise of the Cold War

• Leadership• Public coded messages• Conditions for negotiations

South Africa: state of crisis


• Negotiated settlement• Lots of horse trading• African National Congress (ANC) emerges as leader of

revolution

South Africa 1994: Arrival of democracy


• Ensuring order and security in society in the face of all sorts of threats

(Indonesia during the early years of Suharto)

• Defending the integrity of the nation (Nigeria under Olusegan Obasanjo)

• Promoting a particular ethnic agenda (Kenya under Daniel Arap Moi, South Africa under apartheid)

• Promoting nationalism (Tanzania under Julius Nyerere)

• Defending or challenging (often invented) tradition (DRC under Mobutu)

• Promoting reforms that increase participation (as in Bolivia under Evo Morales) or perhaps decrease it (Chile under Augusto Pinochet)

• Promoting reconciliation (South Africa under Nelson Mandela, Rwanda under Paul Kagame)

Creating legitimacy of the state


Country profiles

Country Census Post conflict Sample Survey Programme

Inconflict Stats NSS

Afghanistan None, last one in the 70s

None None None

Angola None since 1970 None None None

Cambodia 1998 None None Early stages

Rwanda 2002 Focus on relevant post-conflict survey

None None

Somalia None, last one in the 70s

None None None

South Africa 1996, 2001 None None Unstructured

Sudan 2008 Not yet in place None None


Country profiles

Country Political Leadership with focus on statistics

NSO Leadership Systems Resources

Afghanistan Emergent Politically astute Need serious focus Needs resources

Angola Supportive of statistical development

Present, internally focused, needs support

Need serious focus Resource-rich

Cambodia Needs further development

Present, internally focused, needs support

Still have to be institutionalised

Getting support from international agencies

Rwanda Supportive of statistical development

Some instability at the top



Somalia None Needs to be further developed and instutionalised

Not in place Very inadequate

South Africa Supportive of statistical development

Strong external focus Systems in place Self-funded

Sudan Recognition of the NSO

Leadership needs to focus on statistical programmes




Thank you

Fragile States Report PARIS21 Steering committee Pali Lehohla Co Chair PARIS21

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