FRAC ANALYSIS: WHAT FACTORS MAKE A LITIGATION HAVE …
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FRAC ANALYSIS: WHAT FACTORS MAKE A LITIGATION HAVE WIDE COVERAGE IN SPAIN? December 2014 BARCELONA BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO PANAMÁ QUITO RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO
Transcript of FRAC ANALYSIS: WHAT FACTORS MAKE A LITIGATION HAVE …
FRAC ANALYSIS: WHAT FACTORS MAKE A LITIGATION HAVE WIDE COVERAGE IN SPAIN?December 2014
BARCELONA BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO PANAMÁ QUITO RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO
INDEX
IntroductionWhat do we mean by “wide coverage”? What factors generate wide coverage? How is the wide coverage probability calculated? What is the use of a FRAC Analysis? LLORENTE & CUENCA
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Introduction
As a result of the experience gained so far in communications consultancy for the last 20 years in more than 70 court proceedings, we have seen that there are certain factors or characteristics which directly influence the wide coverage of litigations. The analysis of these factors is especially interesting since they affect how reputation and communication are managed during the litigation. Thanks to the cases in which we have worked and to our understanding of media and discussion dynamic on the Internet, we have been able to conclude that there are a number of factors that clearly have an impact on the amount of coverage generated.
The final results were obtained from a questionnaire sent to the most relevant journalists of national media, specialized in legal matters who, thanks to their experience, helped us determining not only what these factors are but also defining their importance (in terms of probability) regarding the coverage a judicial conflict could potentially generate in Spain.
To date, the following conclusions were contrasted by more than 40 Senior Consultants at LLORENTE & CUENCA. This has allowed us to develop a sound methodology (FRAC Analysis)* thanks to which we have created an index to calculate how likely a dispute can generate wide media coverage. To that end, a detailed survey should be conducted on the particular characteristics of the case in question in order to identify the associated risk of coverage.
* FRAC Analysis: Acronym in Spanish for Wide Coverage Risk Factors (Factores de Riesgo de Amplia Cobertura)
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Before deepening into the specific factors, it should be explained what we mean by wide coverage. In our view, coverage is wide when the main national media (newspapers, television, radio and digital portals) gather information
What do we mean by “wide coverage”?
What factors generate a wide coverage?
Inherent factors of litigations might influence up to 85% the probability of generating a wide coverage
about a case and when a number of online communities, including their greatest influencers (those having more than 1,500 followers) pick up the story.
After a first examination, we consider it necessary to distinguish between two types of factors: those regarding the inherent characteristics of the case and external factors (that mainly depend on media) which can also have an influence on the level of coverage the case might have. Likewise, it is important to determine the relevance of each type, since a court proceeding involving a powerful politician or a large amount of money has more impact than others.
Below is a list of the inherent factors of litigations in descending order depending on their potential impact on the generation of wide coverage. It is estimated that these factors might influence up to 85% the probability of generating a broad coverage:
1. Relevance of the company or the main actor. This is the most important factor in terms of generation of wide coverage. In our view, they are relevant if they are well-known by editors of company sections and national courts. Thus, this factor acquires more or less relevance depending on the frequency of the company or the main actor’s appearances in the media.
2. High number of victims who represent one of the parties in the judicial proceeding. Within this category, the probability is different, as it depends on numerical sub-categories that have been established. This means that the probability will not be the same with 10 victims than with 100.
3. Topicality of the subject in the media. In the current social scenario, for instance, where accountability is especially relevant for the public opinion, issues such as political corruption and tax fraud frequently appear in the media. Therefore, a new case of corruption or fraud will be deemed to have the highest possibility in this factor.
4. A political component in the case. Litigation has more possibilities of generating wide coverage if it has a political component. This factor is contingent on its geographical scope, since the coverage of a case will probably be wider if its political component is of a national nature instead of just regional.
5. Historical interest. If in the past a particular case generated a great deal of interest among national media, the final probability will also include the percentage assigned to this factor.
6. Geographical scope of the case. In this factor, it is necessary to determine whether it has an international, national or regional scope, as the case will be more likely to have more impact if it happens in Madrid or Barcelona or if it is a multinational company with similar litigations in other countries.
7. Emotional component. It has been shown that cases with a significant emotional component (e.g. a tragedy involving minors or disabled people or a self-improvement story) also have a great probability of generating a broad coverage.
8. Connection to other ongoing disputes. References to a case can be increased if there are other similar cases that enable an easy and complementary association of both cases.
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9. Amount of money involved. The percentage applicable to this factor will vary depending on whether the amount of money involved is €100,000 or over €1,000,000, although it does not have the same impact in this category.
10. Interest of the attorney or spokesman of the other party in making the case public. In a litigation, there may be opposite interests not only from a legal point of view, but also as regards notoriety and making the case public. If either party may have a special interest in the litigation receiving broad coverage, the pertinent percentage relative to said factor shall be added. However, although it might influence the process, this factor by itself is not enough to obtain broad media coverage and online impact, under the parameters defined for this purpose. It is a factor that will mainly act as an enhancer element.
11. Novelty of the litigation. Depending on the phase in which the case is, the potential risk of it being covered might be larger or smaller. If it is at an early stage, which includes the complaint and the preliminary investigation stage, the risk will be more significant. During the intermediate stage, which comprises the testimonies and the expert reports, it might attract attention, but to a lesser extent. While, during the last stage, where judgment is rendered or the case is withdrawn, the risk increases again reaching particularly high levels of relevance if the judgment was passed to set an example, if it is different or offers any kind of novelty from a technical-legal point of view.
High social networking activity by the company or main actor. This is another factor to be taken into account when assessing the virality of the issue on social networks, as well as the existence of previous comments on the case on the Internet.
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Notoriety of the company or main actor
High number of affected people or victims
Topical issue in the media
Political component of the case
Historical interest by the media
Geographical scope of the case
Presence of an emotional component
Links to other ongoing litigations
Amount of money involved
Interest by the attorney or spokesman of the other party in making the case public
Novelty of the dispute
High activity in social networks by the company or the main actor
Previous comments about the case on the Internet
INHERENT
EXTERNAL
Current affair
Presence of specific spaces in the media for the sector
Easy association of the case with funny or clever phrases
Media availability at the date of the milestones of the case
Milestones taking place in days and hours with high social network activity
FACTORS
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In addition to the aforementioned factors (in which a small percentage is saved for factors not explicitly covered), there are other elements that influence as wide coverage risk enhancers during the milestones of the litigation. These factors are external and we consider that, together, they may influence by up to 15% the chances of generating wide coverage in both media and social networks:
1. Current affair. If the number of news to be covered during the milestones of the litigation is limited, the chances of it being covered increase.
2. Presence of specific spaces in the media for the sector. If there are specific spaces in the media, as happens, for example, with particular sectors such as the technological and energetic fields, the risk of the case receiving wide coverage grows.
*Factor: “Simple association of the case with funny or clever phrases”.
3. Media availability (and journalists’ availability) at the date of the milestones of the litigation. If the milestones of the litigation take place on dates where the media have high availability, logically, this factor will have a higher incidence. In this case, it should be taken into account, that in general and very rarely, on Fridays and holidays, the chance of the case receiving wide coverage slightly decreases.
4. Easy association of the case with funny or clever phrases. This factor is included in the list of external agents as it might potentially affect in a significant manner the virality of the case in social networks.
5. Milestones taking place in days and hours of high social network activity. In this regard, the percentage relative to this category is considered to be at its peak if, for example, the news or milestones takes place during the period between 8:00 and 10:00 am (as explained in a recent study by University Carlos III).
Messi is absolutely innocent of designing a tax evasion plan. This picture clearly shows why.
The concept of the new Lottery commercial where a guy wins the lottery without buying a ticket was taken from Fabra’s life.
In Bankia every day is a #BlackFriday #EverybodyAgainstCorruption #Evrythngspaid
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P (wide coverage)= ∑ % of F with positive responses
Once the presence or absence of these factors in a specific litigation has been detected, after applying a percentage to each of them, it is possible to calculate, thanks to this model, the probability of a certain event entailing wide coverage in the media and social networks. Such probability will therefore
How is the wide coverage probability calculated?
What is the use of a wide coverage risk factors analysis?
be calculated depending on the number of positive responses and by quantifying the sum of the weighted percentages for each factor. Once the sum of the percentages of positive responses has been carried out, it will be possible to find out the probability of wide coverage:
The FRAC Analysis provides a tool, less subjective than intuition and comparable to other cases, which can anticipate the potential coverage that a litigation might generate in the media and social networks. This will help in the design of an appropriate reputation management plan and, therefore, will aid in determining which communication strategy shall be developed.
Although external factors are difficult to predict and measure beforehand, we can make an estimation based on an approximate average percentage which will increase or diminish depending on the characteristics of the exact moment when the novelty or milestone of the process takes place.
On the other hand, as regards inherent factors, once the model has been applied, we will be able to conclude that, if, for example, the sum of these factors is equal to 60%, the probability of the litigation generating wide coverage is quite high.
It is precisely at this point when we will see the benefits and utility that this Analysis offers, since once made, we will be able to design rigorously the most appropriate strategy in order to minimize the effects of a judicial process in relation to the reputation of a company or the main actor.
Following the aforementioned example of a case where the rate after examining the factors is 60%, we will be able to recommend, in the absence of an in-depth analysis, the implementation of a more active strategy directed at the stakeholders of the company. On the other hand, if after the FRAC Analysis we conclude that the litigation has little probability of generating wide coverage (i.e.; 10%); the strategy shall be more reactive and will be focused on preparing for possible scenarios (in legal and coverage terms) that might take place.
Therefore, the FRAC Analysis is a model that adds objectivity to the wide coverage probability calculation for litigations, both in the media and on the Internet.
With the FRAC Analysis we will be able to design rigorously the most appropriate strategy in order to minimize the effects of a judicial process in relation to the reputation of a company or the main actor
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