FPMA Bulletin #4. 10 May 2016 · 10 May 2016 DOmesTIC PRICe W aRNINgs Yellow maize prices at record...

10 May 2016

monthly report on food price trends

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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis

#4

Key messages ↗ International prices of wheat showed mixed trends in April, but remained lower than a year earlier mostly reflecting good prospects for 2016 production. By contrast, maize export quotations generally increased, supported by solid export demand and concerns about 2016 production prospects in South America.

↗ In Asia, rice prices increased in exporting countries in April amid expectations of reduced 2015 secondary crops, due to dry weather associated with the El Niño phenomenon.

↗ In South Africa, prices of white maize continued to decline from the record levels of February with the ongoing harvest but were still high year‑on‑year, underpinned by tight supplies and poor crop prospects. In Nigeria, the currency weakness triggered further increases in domestic coarse grain prices, with those of sorghum at record highs. Steep price increases were also recorded in South Sudan.

↗ In Argentina, strong exports, supported by the weak local currency and the recent elimination of export taxes, underpinned prices of maize which were at record highs in April and pushed prices of wheat to double their year‑earlier levels. Similarly, in Brazil, maize prices were mainly underpinned by rising exports but also sustained domestic demand from the feed industry.

Price warning level: High Moderate [Based on GIEWS analysis]

ContentsIntErnatIonal cErEal PrIcES ............................. 2

DoMEStIc PrIcE WarnInGS .................................. 3

WESt afrIca ........................................................... 8

SoutHErn afrIca .................................................. 9

EaSt afrIca .......................................................... 10

EaSt aSIa .............................................................. 12

cIS - aSIa anD EuroPE ......................................... 15

cEntral aMErIca anD tHE carIBBEan ............. 17

SoutH aMErIca ................................................... 18

Argentina | Maize

Brazil | Maize

Colombia | Rice

Haiti | Maize

Lesotho | Maize

Malawi | Maize

Mozambique | Maize

Myanmar | Rice

Namibia | Maize

Nicaragua | Maize

Nigeria | Coarse grains

South Africa | Maize

Swaziland | Maize

Zambia | Maize

Domestic price warnings

The designations employed and the presentation of material in the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers.

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/price-warnings/detail/en/c/272144/

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/price-warnings/detail/en/c/272144/

2 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 10 May 2016

for more information visit the fPMa website here

INTeRNaTIONaL CeReaL PRICes

International prices of wheat followed mixed trends in the past month but remained generally lower than a year earlier. the benchmark uS wheat (no.2 Hard red Winter, f.o.b.) price averaged uSD 201 per tonne in april, 3 percent down from March and 16 percent below its level a year earlier. Improved winter wheat prospects in key-producing areas of the united States of america weighed on prices, which declined despite some strengthening in mid-april triggered by higher prices of maize and soybean. In the Black Sea region, argentina and Eu, strong exports supported wheat quotations, which increased by some 3 percent in the past month.

the international benchmark uS maize (no.2, Yellow, f.o.b.) price averaged uSD 164 per tonne in april, slightly up from March but still nearly 5 percent lower than the corresponding period last year. Prices were underpinned by sustained export demand and concerns about production prospects in South america, particularly in Brazil, due to adverse weather conditions. In argentina, prices increased due

to harvest delays from heavy rains, while in the Black Sea region, quotations were supported by firm export demand.

the fao all Rice Price Index (2002-04=100) averaged 195 points in april, 1 point less than in March, influenced by falling Japonica rice prices, while Indica and fragrant rice prices moved up somewhat. Despite a dearth of new sales, prices in thailand rose in april, mainly on concerns about the small size of the 2015 thai secondary crop, resulting in a 2.2 percent increase in the benchmark thai 100% B white rice quotation to uSD 400.8 per tonne. Prices in the other major asian origins also showed some increase: in Pakistan, on brisk demand; in Viet nam, on concerns about the effects of the severe drought on crops; and in India, on continuing Government procurement purchases. By contrast, prices declined in the united States of america, on reduced trade activity, while in argentina and Brazil, an appreciation of the local currencies against the uS dollar and fears of crop damage caused by excessive precipitation sustained quotations.

mixed trends for wheat prices in april, while those of maize generally increased

Latest Price(Apr-16) 1M 3M 1Y

International wheat prices

Percent Change

150

200

250

300

350

400

Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16

US (Gulf), Wheat (US No. 2, Hard Red Winter)

EU (France), Wheat (grade 1)

Black Sea, Wheat (milling)

Argentina, Wheat (Argentina, Trigo Pan, Up River, f.o.b.)

USD per tonne

Source(s): International Grains Council

200.75

171.50

186.00

198.75

-3.0

2.8

3.2

3.3

-6.1

-2.4

1.6

2.2

-15.9

-13.8

-11.5

-11.6


International maize prices

Percent Change

140

160

180

200

220

240

260


US (Gulf), Maize (US No. 2, Yellow)

Argentina, Maize (Argentina, Up River, f.o.b.)

Ukraine, Maize (o�er, f.o.b.)

Black Sea, Maize (feed)

USD per tonne

Source(s): USDA; International Grains Council; APK-Inform Agency

163.93

170.50

173.40

172.00

2.8

4.7

4.8

4.4

1.9

5.9

4.1

4.7

-4.6

1.8

0.2

-0.3


International rice prices

Percent Change

200250300350400450500550600650


Thailand (Bangkok), Rice (Thai 100% B)

Viet Nam, Rice (25% broken)

India, Rice (25% broken)

US, Rice (US Long Grain 2.4%)

USD per tonne

Source(s): Thai Rice Exporters Association; FAO rice price update; International Grains Council

400.75

345.20

327.00

440.20

2.2

1.1

1.4

-2.7

6.9

1.4

1.7

-7.1

-2.3

1.5

-6

-12

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/regional-roundups/en/

Price warning level: High Moderate

3Food Price Monitoring and Analysis


10 May 2016

DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs

Yellow maize prices at record levels Yellow maize prices increased sharply in april and reached all-time highs, underpinned by strong exports, which were supported by the weak local currency and the recent elimination of export taxes (fPMa food Policies). the slow progress of the new harvest, disrupted by heavy rains, provided further upward pressure. Prices of wheat grain also increased significantly and were more than double their values in april last year. the high level of prices reflects strong exports following the relaxation of export controls, which also triggered a 9 percent increase in prices of wheat flour in april. In mid-april, the Government announced a number of measures aimed to provide selected food items at reduced prices.

argentina | Maize

countries where prices of one or more basic food commodity are at abnormal high levels which could negatively impact access to food

Colombia | Rice

Brazil | Maize

Rice prices relatively high Prices of rice remained high in april, although they declined from their records in March with the new harvest and recent imports from Mercosur countries and the united States of america. Production of the 2016 first season, which accounts for some 30 percent of the total, was affected by dry conditions, which contributed to support prices in previous months. However, the production outlook for 2016 remains overall positive, as an increase in plantings for the second season is expected to more than offset the reduction in the first season. rice prices in april remained 2-4 percent lower than the records of March and slightly above the high levels of april last year, mainly as a result of costlier inputs resulting from a weak local currency and increased border controls.

Prices of yellow maize at all-time highs Yellow maize prices continued to increase in april and were at record highs, in nominal terms. the high level of prices reflects strong domestic demand from the feed industry and export demand, supported by the weak currency. concerns about the impact of dry weather on the 2016 second season maize crop, to be harvested from July, added to the upward pressure. the high prices led the Government to remove the import duties on maize in late april (fPMa food Policies) and recent imports from non-Mercosur countries were reported. Prices of wheat grain remained virtually unchanged and were more than 20 percent higher than in april last year mainly due to a reduced 2015 crop. Prices of wheat flour, however, weakened further reflecting adequate imports, although they remained above their year-earlier levels. Prices of rice declined further from the record levels of february with the new harvest but

to 04/16 Same periodaverage

3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

6.5

6.9

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Argentina, Rosario, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)

-0.1

0.2


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

3.9

8.9

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Brazil, National Average, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)

-1.3

-0.2


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

-0.1

2.6

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Colombia, National Average, Retail, Rice (second quality)

0.4

0.3

remained higher than in april last year as a result of depleted inventories and poor 2016 crop prospects.

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/price-warnings/en/

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/food-policies/detail/en/c/380352/





DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.

Haiti | Maize

Lesotho | Maize

Prices of maize meal and beans remain up from a year earlier Prices of domestically-produced maize meal remained generally unchanged in april and were at levels well above those a year earlier. Prices of black beans, another food staple, were also generally higher than in april last year, despite some declines following the recent harvest. Prices were mainly underpinned by tight market supplies following the reduced 2015 production affected by severe dry conditions which caused losses of crops in all parts of the country, limiting food availability and resulting in sharp price increases of most domestically-produced food crops. the depreciation of the local currency, which continued to lose value in april, provided further support to food prices. availability and prices of imported rice and wheat flour remained overall stable.

malawi | Maize Maize prices fell seasonally, but remained at high levels the national average maize price fell further in april, as supplies from the 2016 harvest increased market supplies. larger month-on-month price decreases were recorded in central and northern markets, which are the main producing regions, with smaller decreases registered in the south, which had been most affected by the dry weather. the overall tight supply situation and the impact of the regional drought, however, continued to sustain the high level of prices.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

2.6

-1.2

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Haiti, Port-au-Prince, Retail, Maize meal (local)

2.0

-0.7


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

2.1

4.1

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Lesotho, Maseru, Retail, Maize meal

0.7

0.0


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

3.6

3.3

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Malawi, Lilongwe, Retail, Maize

-0.7

0.1

Maize price increases persist Prices of maize meal rose significantly for the second consecutive month in March and were about one-third above their year-earlier levels on account of the high prices in South africa, which supplies the bulk of the country’s consumption requirements. Poor production prospects for the 2016 cereal crop have also added upward pressure.





10 May 2016


mozambique | Maize Maize prices well above their year-earlier levels White maize prices increased sharply in the past months due to a combination of poor 2016 production prospects in the south and most central provinces, higher prices in South africa (a main trading partner) and the depreciation of the local currency. although good harvests are anticipated in northern provinces, the expectation of an overall reduced output this year is likely to maintain upward pressure on prices.

myanmar | Rice Rice prices firm in AprilPrices of emata rice, the most consumed variety, remained unchanged for the second consecutive month in april, but were almost one-third higher than the corresponding period last year. the high level of prices mainly reflects two consecutive seasons of reduced outputs. the 2015 aggregate rice production is forecast some 3 percent below the 2014 already reduced level following severe floods during the main season and dry weather which negatively affected the secondary season crop, currently being gathered.

Namibia | Maize Maize prices continue to climb higherPrices of maize meal rose sharply in March and were well above their year-earlier levels, mainly on account of the high prices in South africa, which supplies the bulk of the country’s consumption requirements. the expectations of a second consecutive below-average harvest in 2016 and the depreciation of the namibia dollar also supported the higher prices.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

3.8

10.6

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Mozambique, Maputo, Wholesale, Maize (white)

1.1

0.2


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

1.4

2.1

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Myanmar, Yangon, Wholesale, Rice (Emata, Manawthukha)

2.5

-0.1


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

2.0

6.3

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Namibia, Swakopmund, Retail, Maize meal

0.3

0.3





Nicaragua | Maize Prices of white maize well above their year-earlier valuesWhite maize prices showed some decline in april but remained nearly 30 percent higher than a year earlier as a result of below-average market supplies following the sharply-reduced 2015 output affected by severe dry weather conditions. Prices of red beans remained virtually unchanged after the atypical increases of the previous two months, driven by strong export demand. Quotations of staple rice were stable and only slightly above their year-earlier values, mainly as a result of adequate volumes of imports which are expected to increase this year.

Nigeria | Coarse grainsCoarse grain prices well above their levels last year Prices of coarse grains rose for three consecutive months and in March they were some 50 percent higher than a year earlier, with those of sorghum at record highs. Prices of both domestic and imported foods were underpinned by unfavourable macro-economic conditions with the ongoing rapid depreciation of the naira on the parallel market due to the drop in oil revenues. Prices of rice are also reportedly high, underpinned by a fall in imports following the imposition of restrictions (fPMa food Policies) and the depreciation of the local currency. In the northeast, market disruption and high transaction costs due to the ongoing conflict adds to the upward pressure. In an effort to lower food prices, the Government announced, in late april, the release of 10 000 tonnes of grain from the national Strategic Grains reserve.



3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

1.8

0.5

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Nicaragua, Managua (oriental), Wholesale, Maize (white)

4.7

0.1


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

2.3

18.8

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Nigeria, Kano, Wholesale, Sorghum

-0.1

-0.6

south africa | Maize Maize prices continued to fall but still high year-on-year Prices of maize decreased for a second consecutive month in april on harvest pressure. the strengthening of the local currency, low international quotations and large imported volumes of yellow maize contributed to the decline. at the current level, yellow maize prices were 27 percent up on their year-earlier values, while a comparatively tighter supply situation for white maize has kept prices more than two-thirds higher than those in april 2015.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

4.3

-3.9

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: South Africa, Randfontein, Wholesale, Maize (white)

-2.0

0.3





10 May 2016

swaziland | MaizeSharp maize price rises persist Prices of maize meal were about two-thirds above their year-earlier levels on account of the high prices in South africa, which supplies the bulk of the country’s consumption requirements. Poor production prospects for the 2016 cereal crop have also added upward pressure.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

3.6

17.1

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Swaziland, National average, Retail, Maize meal

-0.5

-0.2

Zambia | MaizeMaize prices fell seasonally but remain high the national average price of white maize grain declined seasonally from the record high of the previous month reflecting the arrival of new supplies from the 2016 harvest, estimated to be at a near-average level and above earlier expectations. However, overall tighter supplies reflecting the reduced 2015 output and large volumes of exports, sustained higher year-on-year prices. the depreciation of the currency also applied upward pressure.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

0.8

2.1

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Zambia, National Average, Retail, Maize (white)

0.3

0.0




WesT afRICa

Coarse grain prices mostly stable in the sahel belt but still on the increase in coastal countries

In the Sahel belt, prices of locally-produced millet and sorghum, the main staples, were stable or seasonally increased in april. In Mali, prices remained mostly unchanged reflecting good availabilities from the 2015 harvests. Similarly, in Niger, sufficient market supplies from national production and imports kept prices of coarse grains stable in april, with the exception of millet, prices of which increased in some markets. By contrast, in Burkina Faso, prices recorded significant seasonal increases. In Chad, coarse grain prices increased in March in most markets, but remained lower than a year earlier, after significant declines over the past few months.

In coastal countries, in Nigeria, prices of coarse grains continued to increase sharply in March, with those of sorghum at record highs. Prices of both domestic and imported foods were underpinned by the ongoing rapid depreciation of the naira on the parallel market due to the drop in oil revenues. In an effort to lower food prices, the Government announced, in late april, the release of 10 000 tonnes of grain from the national Strategic Grains reserve. In Togo, prices generally strengthened in March and were above their year-earlier levels.


Wholesale prices of millet in West Africa

Percent Change

140

160

180

200

220

240

260


Mali, Bamako

Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou

Niger, Niamey

CFA Franc per kg

Source(s): Afrique verte

160.00

175.00

180.00

0

9.4

0

0

6.1

5.9

-3

2.9

2.9

Latest Price(Mar-16) 1M 3M 1Y

Retail prices of maize in Togo

Percent Change

50

100

150

200

250

300

Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16

Anie

Lomé

Korbongou

Kara

CFA Franc per kg

Source(s): Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Elevage et de la Pêche

176.00

183.00

177.00

176.00

1.7

0

6

1.7

3.5

0

28.3

8

83.3

22

37.2

11.4


Wholesale prices of coarse grains in Kano, Nigeria

Percent Change

40000

45000

50000

5500060000

65000

70000

75000

80000


Maize

Millet

Sorghum

Naira per tonne

Source(s): FEWSNET

72400.0

71600.0

74400.0

0.2

9.3

5.9

41.4

53

76.8

50.8

43.2

48.8




10 May 2016

sOuTHeRN afRICa

maize prices decline seasonally but still at high levels

Maize grain prices fell seasonally with the ongoing 2016 harvests but remained well above their year-earlier levels, reflecting overall tight supplies and an expected decrease in this year’s outputs. In South Africa, maize prices decreased further this month, under pressure from the ongoing harvest, low international quotations and large import volumes. the continued appreciation of the rand, although still significantly weaker than in the previous year, also contributed to push down prices. However, yellow, and in particular, white maize prices remained well above their year-earlier levels, mostly due to the overall tight supply situation and the expected 30 percent decrease in this year’s maize output. the high prices have exerted inflationary pressure in the subregion’s import-dependent countries, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland, where maize meal prices

in March were over one-third higher than their year-earlier values. In Malawi, the national average maize price fell further in april, as supplies from the 2016 harvest increased market supplies. However, the overall tight supply situation and the impact of the regional drought continued to sustain prices. In Zambia, where the 2016 maize production is estimated to recover by 10 percent to return to a near-average level, maize grain prices fell seasonally in april, but the overall tight supply situation, following the 2015 reduced output, maintained prices relatively high. By contrast, in Zimbabwe, maize meal prices decreased further in March and were lower than a year earlier, mainly as a result of a stronger uS dollar, the country’s main currency. However, maize meal prices in uS dollar terms were still some of the highest in the subregion.


Retail prices of maize in Malawi

Percent Change

60

110

160

210

260


National Average

Kwacha per kg

Source(s): Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security

176.86 -25.3 -11.7 59.1


Retail prices of maize meal in Namibia

Percent Change

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


Windhoek

Otjiwarongo

Gobabis

Katima

Namibia Dollar per Kg

Source(s): Namibia Statistics Agency

16.16

11.80

13.36

14.40

10.8

23.7

17.2

16.1

16.3

33.2

17.2

16.1

40.6

23.3

42.1

20


Wholesale prices of maize in Randfontein, South Africa

Percent Change

1200

1700

2200

27003200

3700

4200

4700

5200


Maize (white)

Maize (yellow)

Rand per tonne

Source(s): SAFEX Agricultural Products Division

4515.25

3110.50

-6.6

-5.4

-8.8

-19.7

76.4

31.3




easT afRICa

High cereal prices in south sudan and the sudan

In South Sudan, prices of cereals continued to soar in april and reached record levels, on account of the general economic downturn, high inflation and widespread insecurity. In Juba, prices of sorghum and maize increased by 11 and 7 percent, respectively, and were about three times higher than in april last year. In the Sudan, prices of locally-produced sorghum, the main staple, began increasing again in april and were more than one-third up on their year-earlier values as a result of tight availabilities following the drought-reduced 2015 harvest. Millet prices rose for the second consecutive month in al fashir in the Darfur region, the main millet production and consumption area. By contrast, prices of wheat declined further in Khartoum with improved supplies from the recent harvest. In Uganda, prices of maize continued to increase in april in several markets following seasonal patterns. By contrast, in Busia, a key cross-border hub, prices declined due to lower demand from Kenya. overall, prices of maize in april were around or below their year-earlier levels. In Kenya, wholesale prices of maize remained relatively stable or declined somewhat in april and

were down from a year earlier, on account of two consecutive above-average harvests. Maize prices followed similar patterns in Ethiopia despite the drought-reduced 2015 output, as the ongoing relief food distributions and large carryover stocks from the above average 2014 cereal production contributed to maintain adequate market supplies. Prices, however, remained higher than in april last year. Prices of wheat in the capital, addis ababa, remained stable in april after the recent declines mostly due to increased imports and were around their values a year earlier. In the United Republic of Tanzania, prices of maize decreased or remained unchanged after the increase of the previous months with the arrival of new green crop supplies from the msimu harvest, expected to be near average this year. However, prices were still at relatively high levels, reflecting the below-average 2015 cereal production. In Somalia, prices of locally-produced sorghum and maize, the main staples, generally increased in april following seasonal patterns, but remained well below their year-earlier levels, as a result of adequate domestic availabilities.


Wholesale prices of maize in Uganda

Percent Change

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000


Kampala

Busia

Uganda Shilling per kg

Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network

828.89

774.66

5.2

-6.2

20.9

11.3

3.2

-8.9


Wholesale prices of sorghum in the Sudan

Percent Change

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000


El Gedarif

Khartoum

El Obeid

Sudanese Pound per tonne

Source(s): Food Security information for Action (SIFSIA)

3194.40

3538.37

3681.59

1.4

4.1

5.5

11.1

14.4

21.6

30.8

37.6

38




10 May 2016

easT afRICa contd.easT afRICa contd.


Wholesale prices of maize in Kenya

Percent Change

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000


Nakuru

Nairobi

Eldoret

Kisumu

Kenyan Shilling per tonne


25050.0

31052.0

27195.0

29557.0

0

1.4

1.2

-1.2

-0.5

-1

11.9

-16

-11.4

-5.3

7.2

-18.2


Wholesale prices of maize in Ethiopia

Percent Change

3000

3500

4000

45005000

5500

6000

6500

7000


Bahirdar

Diredawa

Addis Ababa

Mekele

Ethiopian Birr per tonne

Source(s): Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise

4380.00

5100.00

4610.00

5300.00

-1.2

-3.4

0.2

3.5

-4.8

1.7

0.2

-3.6

8.1

-3.2

6.2

19.4


Wholesale prices of maize in the United Republic of Tanzania

Percent Change

200300400500600700800900

10001100


Dar es Salaam

Iringa

Arusha

Tanzanian Shilling per kg


801.32

740.19

556.89

0.2

-9.5

-20

6.6

-19.5

24.1

14.9

12.6

-5.8


Retail prices of maize and sorghum in Somalia

Percent Change

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000


Baidoa, Sorghum (red)

Marka, Maize (white)

Mogadishu, Sorghum (red)

Mogadishu, Maize (white)

Somali Shilling per kg

Source(s): Food Security Analysis Unit

4035.00

7650.00

6080.00

7260.00

4.6

15.9

4.8

13

-28.6

29.7

1.3

11.7

-26.6

-14.5

-24

-31.5




easT asIa

Prices of rice strengthened in rice exporting countries

Domestic prices of rice generally strengthened in april and were higher than a year earlier. this was most notably the case in rice exporting countries, where quotations were underpinned by concerns over the impact of severe dry weather related to the El niño on 2015 secondary season crops, currently being harvested. In Thailand and Cambodia, prices were mainly supported by prospects of reduced 2015 secondary season crops. However, export sales to traditional buyers contributed to the upward pressure on prices. In Viet Nam, quotations also increased and were higher than a year earlier, despite the arrival of the 2016 main winter/spring crop into the market, reflecting concerns over crop losses due to the ongoing dry weather and salinity problems. In Myanmar, two consecutive seasons of output shortfalls kept prices one-third higher than a year earlier, with exports to china also providing upward pressure. In India, continuing Government procurement purchases kept prices stable in april. In Sri Lanka, after steep decreases in previous months,

rice prices recovered somewhat in april following the completion of the main crop harvest. By contrast, in Indonesia and Bangladesh, the arrival of 2016 main season harvests weighed on prices which declined further in april.

Prices of wheat and wheat flour remained stable or weakened throughout the subregion. In India, wheat prices were steady, despite the progressive arrival of the 2016 main crop in the market, as the output is expected to be below average. large ongoing Government procurement purchases also prevented price decreases. Wheat flour prices were also stable in China. Prices decreased in Pakistan as a result of improved availabilities from the ongoing 2016 wheat harvest and in Bangladesh, following large-scale stock sales though the open Market Sale Scheme. By contrast, prices of mostly imported wheat flour continued to increase in Sri Lanka following the reduction of tax concession on wheat flour imports. In Afghanistan, a decline in import flows supported prices of wheat flour in april.


Wholesale prices of rice in Bangkok, Thailand

Percent Change

9

10

11

12

13

14


Rice (25% broken)

Rice (5% broken)

Baht per kg

Source(s): Department of Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce

11.77

12.32

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.6

8.4

6.2


Wholesale prices of rice in Cambodia

Percent Change

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000


Phnom Penh

Kampong Chhnang

Banteay Meanchey

Battambang

Riel per kg

Source(s): Cambodia Agricultural Market Information System

1700.00

1767.00

1400.00

1400.00

6.2

3.4

0

3.7

6.2

12

0

7.7

6.2

8.9

7.7

21.7




10 May 2016

easT asIa contd.


Wholesale prices of rice in Viet Nam

Percent Change

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000


An Giang, Rice (25% broken)

An Giang, Rice (20% broken)

Dong Thap, Rice (20% broken)

Dong Thap, Rice (25% broken)

Dong per kg

Source(s): Agroinfo

7575.00

7625.00

7400.00

7350.00

2.4

2.3

0

0.3

2.8

1.2

-2.1

-1.5

8.6

6.5

5.2

6.3


Wholesale prices of rice in Yangon, Myanmar

Percent Change

300

350

400

450

500

550


Rice (Emata, Manawthukha)

Kyat per kg

Source(s): E-Trade Myanmar

499.15 0.3 8.4 30


Retail prices of rice in India

Percent Change

22

24

26

28

30

32

34


Chennai

Mumbai

New Delhi

Patna

Indian Rupee per kg

Source(s): Ministry of Consumer A�airs

29.00

29.87

28.00

26.77

-2.6

-0.4

0

2.8

-3.3

-0.4

-1.3

3

-3.3

-0.4

-9.4

11.5


Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Colombo, Sri Lanka

Percent Change

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


Rice (white)

Wheat (�our)

Sri Lanka Rupee per kg

Source(s): Department of Census and Statistics

67.04

92.23

3.4

3.9

-7.7

5.8

-4.4

6.6




easT asIa contd.


Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Indonesia

Percent Change

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000


National Average, Rice (medium quality)

National Average, Wheat (�our)

Rupiah per kg

Source(s): Ministry of Trade

10704.7

9037.62

-1.7

-0.6

-0.9

-0.4

6.9

2.3


Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Percent Change

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38


Wheat (�our)

Rice (coarse-Guti/ Sharna)

Taka per kg

Source(s): Department of Agriculture Marketing (DAM), Bangladesh

25.24

26.89

-1.3

-4.7

-5.3

-10.4

-17.8

-20.8


Retail prices of wheat flour in Pakistan

Percent Change

34

36

38

40

42

44

46


Karachi

Lahore

Peshawar

Multan

Pakistan Rupee per kg

Source(s): Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

40.61

38.60

38.38

36.38

-1.8

-1

-1.1

-4.8

-8.4

-1

-1.9

-5.5

-0.2

-0.3

2.3

-0.6


Retail prices of wheat flour in Afghanistan

Percent Change

20

25

30

35

40


Kabul

Kandahar

Jalalabad

Herat

Afghani per kg

Source(s): Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) - WFP

28.00

26.85

24.13

27.63

-6.7

4.6

8.4

0.5

-6.7

-6.1

-2.5

-0.9

12

11.6

-8.1

-4.2




10 May 2016

CIs - asIa aND euROPe

export prices of wheat on the increase, while domestic prices decline further

In the exporting countries of the subregion, export prices of milling wheat increased in april, mostly supported by strong demand, but remained well below their year-earlier levels, particularly in Kazakhstan. However, domestic prices of wheat grain and wheat flour declined in most countries of the subregion. In the Russian Federation and Ukraine, domestic wheat prices decreased on account of stronger national currencies and improved prospects for the 2016 wheat crops. In import-dependent countries, prices of wheat and wheat products also declined, mainly reflecting the generally low export prices. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, prices

of wheat flour continued to decrease in april and were down from a year earlier as a result of adequate and low-priced wheat imports from neighbouring exporters. Similarly, prices of wheat flour weakened in Armenia and in Belarus in March. By contrast, prices of imported wheat flour continued to increase in Azerbaijan and rose slightly in Georgia, remaining above their year-earlier levels largely because of weak national currencies. In Uzbekistan, where the Government set maximum prices for main food products, prices of wheat flour remained unchanged in april, but some 10 percent higher than the corresponding period last year.


Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in the Russian Federation

Percent Change

5000

7000

9000

11000

13000

15000

17000

19000


National Average, Wheat (Milling, 3rd class, o�er, EXW)

Volga region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Central Black Earth, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Southern region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Russian Ruble per tonne

Source(s): APK-Inform Agency

11320.0

16440.0

15800.0

17280.0

-0.8

-0.4

-2.8

-1

2.5

-0.4

-0.5

2.6

11.6

4.2

2.9

11.5


Export prices of milling wheat

Percent Change

150

170

190

210230

250

270

290

310


Kazakhstan, Wheat (milling)

Russian Federation, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b., deep-sea ports)

Ukraine, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b.)

USD per tonne


175.00

186.00

181.60

2.9

3.3

1.9

-3.8

0.6

-3.7

-34.6

-12.5

-13.5




CIs - asIa aND euROPe contd.


Retail prices of wheat flour in Tajikistan

Percent Change

2

2.5

3

3.5

4


Khujand, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Kurgonteppa, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Khorugh, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Dushanbe, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Somoni per kg

Source(s): Statistical Agency under President of the Republic of Tajikistan

2.65

3.00

3.30

3.40

-2.9

-2.3

-2.1

-2.9

-21.6

-14.3

-9.8

-6.3

-17.7

-11.8

-13.8

-1.4


Retail prices of wheat flour in Georgia

Percent Change

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

1.7

1.75

1.8


National Average, Wheat (�our)

Lari per kg

Source(s): National Statistics O�ce of Georgia

1.72 1.8 0 1.8


Retail prices of wheat flour in Kyrgyzstan

Percent Change

27

29

31

33

35

37


Bishkek

Jalal-Abad

National Average

Naryn

Som per kg

Source(s): National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic

31.07

29.50

31.60

32.90

-3.5

-4.2

-2.3

-0.2

-8.2

-13.6

-7.9

-0.2

-8.6

-14.6

-9.1

-2.5


Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in Ukraine

Percent Change

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000


National Average, Wheat (3rd class, bid, EXW, processing)

National Average, Wheat (�our, �rst grade, o�er, EXW)

National Average, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Hryvnia per tonne


3950.00

5460.00

5660.00

-3.4

-2.5

-2.4

5.3

-0.7

-0.7

9.7

-9

-9




10 May 2016

CeNTRaL ameRICa aND THe CaRIBBeaN

Prices of white maize and beans relatively stable in april

In most countries of the subregion, white maize prices in april remained close to their previous month’s values, with continuing imports contributing to supply the markets affected by reduced domestic availabilities. In the capital city markets of Honduras and Guatemala, prices remained virtually unchanged in april and were only slightly higher than the corresponding period last year. In Nicaragua and Haiti, however, maize prices remained well above their year-earlier levels due to the tight domestic supplies following the drought-reduced 2015 harvests. In Mexico, prices were also higher than a year earlier supported by currency weakness.

Bean prices remained overall relatively stable in april; however, while prices of red beans were in general lower than their year-earlier levels, those of black beans averaged higher. In Nicaragua, red bean

prices remained virtually unchanged compared to March and were down from a year earlier. In Honduras, prices strengthened somewhat mostly due to export demand but remained more than 15 percent below their year-earlier values. In El Salvador, prices weakened and were some 20 percent down from a year earlier reflecting adequate availabilities following recent imports. In Guatemala and in the Dominican Republic, prices of black beans showed some seasonal increases and were higher than a year earlier. In Haiti, black bean prices declined or remained unchanged in april but were at high levels underpinned by tight market availabilities following the reduced 2015 production. In Mexico, black bean prices eased marginally in several markets but were higher than in april last year, mainly supported by the weak currency.


Wholesale prices of maize and black beans in Guatemala

Percent Change

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000


Guatemala City, Beans (black)

Guatemala City, Maize (white)

Quetzal per tonne

Source(s): Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación

8488.26

2963.40

4.8

0.7

8.4

2

19.9

1.7


Retail prices of black beans in Haiti

Percent Change

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


Port-au-Prince

Jacmel

Hinche

Jeremie

Gourde per Livre

Source(s): Coordination nationale de la sécurité alimentaire

50.00

65.00

58.33

53.33

-4.8

0

0

-10.1

-7.7

-13.3

-6.4

10.3

20

47.2

35.9

23.1




sOuTH ameRICa

maize prices at record highs in argentina and Brazil, those of wheat well above a year earlier

In the main producing countries of the subregion, argentina and Brazil, prices of yellow maize increased sharply in april and reached all-time highs in nominal terms. In Argentina, prices were underpinned by strong exports, which were supported by the weak local currency and the recent elimination of export taxes (fPMa food Policies). In Brazil, the increase in prices was triggered by strong domestic and export demand and, more recently, by concerns about the impact of dry weather on the 2016 second season maize crop. the high prices led the Government to remove the import duties on maize in late april (fPMa food Policies). Maize prices also increased in minor producing country, Peru, following a recent decline in imports. Elsewhere in the subregion, in Bolivia, Chile and Ecuador, maize prices declined significantly with the 2016 maize harvests and were below their year-earlier levels. By contrast, in Colombia, yellow maize prices in april were more than 10 percent higher supported by the weak local currency, despite its recent strengthening.

Prices of wheat grain continued to increase in key exporter, Argentina, and were more than double their values in april last year. the high level of prices reflects strong exports as a result of the

currency depreciation and the relaxation of export controls, which also triggered a 9 percent increase in prices of wheat flour in april. In Brazil, prices of wheat grain remained virtually unchanged and were more than 20 percent higher than in april last year mainly due to a reduced 2015 crop. Prices of wheat flour, however, weakened further reflecting adequate imports, although they remained above their year-earlier levels. In Chile, wheat prices seasonally increased in april but were still significantly below their values last year reflecting good domestic availabilities. In Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru, prices of wheat flour remained virtually unchanged in april and were overall down from a year earlier on account of adequate import volumes. By contrast, in Colombia, prices were up from the previous year due to the weak local currency.

In general, rice prices eased in april with the beginning of the 2016 harvests, despite expectations of a reduced crop in most countries of the subregion, and remained around their year-earlier levels. However, in Brazil, the subregion’s largest producer, prices remained well above their values in april last year. also, in Colombia, prices were relatively high mainly as a result of increased production costs resulting from a weak local currency.


Wholesale prices of yellow maize in Argentina

Percent Change

700

1200

1700

2200

2700


Rosario, Maize (yellow)

Argentine Peso per tonne

Source(s): Bolsa de Cereales

2480.24 12.3 26.2 142.4


Wholesale prices of yellow maize in Brazil

Percent Change

300

400

500

600

700

800


São Paulo

National Average

Brazilian Real per tonne

Source(s): Agrolink

733.65

660.46

6

8.7

24.7

31.8

75.9

72.9






10 May 2016


Wholesale prices of yellow maize in Ecuador

Percent Change

250

300

350

400

450

500

550


Guayaquil

Quito

Cuenca

Portoviejo

US Dollar per tonne

Source(s): Sistema de Información Nacional de Agricultura, Ganadería, Acuacultura y Pesca - SINAGAP

370.00

430.00

340.00

390.00

-14

-4.4

-15

2.6

-15.9

-6.5

-17.1

-15.2

-26

-12.2

-22.7

-18.8


Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in Argentina

Percent Change

500

1500

2500

3500

4500

5500


Buenos Aires, Wheat

Buenos Aires, Wheat (�our)

Argentine Peso per tonne

Source(s): Bolsa de Cereales

2278.57

3910.00

5.5

8.6

18.4

8.6

102.6

39.6


Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in Brazil

Percent Change

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500


São Paulo, Wheat (�our)

National Average, Wheat

São Paulo, Wheat

Brazilian Real per tonne

Source(s): Instituto de Economia Agrícola; Agrolink

1952.40

598.45

739.98

-1.2

1.2

-1

-4.2

3.8

7.5

7

20.4

28.2


Retail prices of rice in Colombia

Percent Change

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000


National Average, Rice (�rst quality)

National Average, Rice (second quality)

Colombian Peso per kg

Source(s): Fedearroz

3588.67

3224.67

-1.3

-1.3

9.9

11.3

3.3

6.7

sOuTH ameRICa contd.


This bulletin is prepared by the Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Team in the Trade and Markets Division of FAO. It contains latest information and analysis on domestic prices of basic foods mainly in developing countries, complementing FAO analysis on international markets. It provides early warning on high food prices at country level that may negatively affect food security.

This report is based on information available up to early May 2016.

All the data used in the analysis can be found in the FPMA Tool at: www.fao.org/giews/pricetool

For more information visit the FPMA Website at: www.fao.org/giews/food-prices

Enquiries may be directed to:Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) TeamTrade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome, ItalyE-mail: [email protected]

Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.

The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO.

© FAO, 2016

Food Price Monitoring and Analysis | 10 May 2016 C0085E/1/05.16

http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices

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