FP7 Research in the field of climate change vulnerability, impacts adaptation

Wolfram SchrimpfClimate Change & Environmental Risks Unit

Research Directorate GeneralEuropean Commission

3rd EIONET workshop on climate change vulnerabilityimpacts and adaptationEEA, Copenhagen, 30 June – 1 July 2009

FP7 research supports the following climate change-related priorities:

• Understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impacts

• Providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, costs and benefits of different policy options for mitigation and adaptation

• Improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate-friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future

• Focused on four main thematic areas:– Environment (total budget € 1.89 billion) – Energy (total budget € 2.35 billion)– Transport (total budget € 4.16 billion)– Space and Global Monitoring for Environment and

Security (GMES) (total budget € 1.43 billion)

Budget for FP7-Environment

• Total FP7 budget: 50.521 bn € (current prices)

• Total Cooperation programme budget: 32.413 bn €

• Total budget Environment incl. Climate change 1.886 bn €

Indicative breakdown:

In 2013 expenditure 60% higher than in 2006

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

225 224 229 233 246 281 318 356

Main drivers:

International commitments, protocols, initiatives concluded by the EC and its Member States

Existing and emerging EC environmental legislation and policies

Climate and environmental change, their consequences and the link to energy

Environment (including Climate Change)

DESIGN OFPOLICY

POLICYDEVELOPMENT

POLICYIMPLEMENTATION

POLICYREVIEW

RESEARCH,SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS,POLICY INTEGRATION

Establishing links with ‘science-users’

Since 2003, more than 139 projects representing an overall budget of 570 M€ of EC financial support contributed to the understanding of the climate system and adapting to change in climate processes and their modelling, to the assessment of climate change impacts and the costs of response measures.

These research activities are complemented by other projects funded by the Framework Programme, notably in the areas of energy and transport, which contribute to the identification and development of mitigation options.

A publication providing an overview of climate change research projects funded under the FP will be released by August 2009 for Third World Climate Conference.

Framework Programmes and climate change research

Areas of FP Research Projectsof relevance for climate change impacts, vulnerability and

adaptation

• Climate Processes, Observations and Projections• Global Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles – Greenhouse Gas

Emissions• Climate Interactions with atmospheric composition change• Climate Change Impacts• Climate Relevant Projects on Natural Hazards and

Extreme Events• Climate Change Adaptation, Mitigation and Policies

Climate Processes Observations and ProjectionsFP6

• ENSEMBLES (Ensemble based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) – IP (until 31/08/2009)Co-ordinator: Met Office, Hadley Center, United Kingdomweb-site:http: //www.ensembles-eu.org

• WATCH (Water and Global Change) – IP (until 31/01/2011)Co-ordinator: Natural Environment Research Council, UKweb-site: http: //www.eu-watch.org/nl/25222705-Home.html

COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth system for better climate prediction and projection)

• EC funding: EUR 7.9 million, CP, 22 partners

• Duration: 48 months (started 01/05/2009)• Co-ordinator: Max-Planck-Gesellschaft,

Germany• Major activities of COMBINE include:

- Use of Earth system models for decadal climate prediction and climate projection experiments;- Analysis of projected climate change in three different climate regions: The Arctic, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Amazon basin- Testing if high spatial resolution has significant influence on strength of feedbacks;- Quantification of the impacts in two sectors: water availability and agriculture, globally and within the regions.

• International partners from Brazil

ATP (Arctic Tipping Points)

• EC funding: EUR 4.9 million, CP-IP, 13 partners• Duration: 36 months (started 01/02/2009)• Co-ordinator: University of Tromsø, Norway• Major aims of of ATP are:

- To identify the elements of the Arctic marine ecosystem likely to show abrupt changes in response to climate change;- To establish the levels of the corresponding climate drivers inducing the regime shift for these tipping elements;- To analyse the impacts of abrupt changes in the Arctic ecosystems for activities of strategic importance for the European Arctic

• The effectiveness of possible alternative, post-Kyoto policies and stabilization targets in avoiding climate-driven thresholds in the Arctic ecosystem will be examined, and the results and projections will be conveyed to policy makers, economic sectors and the public in general

• International partners from Russia and Greenland

Global Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles –Greenhouse Gas Emissions

CARBO-Extreme (The terrestrial Carbon cycle under Climate Variability and Extremes – a pan European synthesis)

• EC funding: EUR 3.3 million, CP, 25 partners• Duration: 48 months (started 01/06/2009)• Co-ordinator: Max Planck, Germany• The core objectives of CARBO-Extreme are:

– To achieve an improved knowledge of the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to climate variability and extremes;

– To represent and apply this knowledge over Europe with predictive terrestrial carbon cycle modelling;

– To interpret the model predictions in terms of vulnerability of the terrestrial – in particular soil – carbon pools and give according advice to EU climate and soil protection policies .

• This objective will be achieved by integrating three major types of recent and new solid scientific carbon cycle data, from: (i) soil process studies, (ii) a network of established ecosystem manipulation experiments, and (iii) long-term observations spanning several times-scales

• Web site: http: //www.carboeurope.org

Climate Change Interactions withAtmospheric Composition Change

FP6:

• ACCENT (Atmospheric Composition Change: A European Network) – NoE (until 31/12/2009)Co-ordinator: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italyweb-site: http: //www.accent-network.org

• EUCAARI (European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality)– IP (until 31/12/2010))Co-ordinator: Helsingin Yliopisto, Finlandweb-site: http: //www.atm.helsinki.fi/eucaari/

CITYZEN (megacity –Zoom for the Environment)

• EC funding: EUR 2.9 million, cp, 15 partners• Duration: 36 months (started 01/09/2008)• Co-ordinator: Meteorological Institute, Norway• Major activities of CITYZEN are:

- Estimation of future impact from emission changes with a focus on the effect of rapid growth in the population of megacities/hot spots and the increasing background of pollutants- Estimation how megacities/hot spots influence climate change;- Study mitigation options (e.g. by introducing biofuel, to keep the air pollution load in and around megacities/hot spots within sustainable limit in terms of human health effects and climate impacts;- Development of tools to estimate interactions between different spatial scales (megacities to global).

• International partners from Egypt, China

• Web-site: http:// wiki.met.no/cityzen/start/

MEGAPOLI (Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and global atmospheric pollution and climate effects, and integrated tools for assessment and mitigation)

• EC funding: EUR 3.4 million, CP, 28 partners

• Duration: 36 months (started 01/10/2008)

• Co-ordinator: Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark

• Major activities of MEGAPOLI include:- Assessment of impacts among megacities and large air-pollution hot-spots on local, regional and global air quality;- Quantification of feedbacks among megacity air quality, local and regional climate, and global climate change;- Development of improved integrated tools for prediction of air pollution in megacities.

• Web-site: http: //megapoli.dmi.dk

Climate Change ImpactsFP6:

• CECILIA (Central and Eastern European Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability) – STREP (until 31/05/2009)Co-ordinator: Charles University, Czech Republic web-site: http: //www.cecilia-eu.org

• CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment – IP (until 31/03/2011)Co-ordinator: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italyweb-site: http: //www.bo.ingv.it/circeip

• CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe) – STREP (until 31/08/2009)Co-ordinator: Max-Planck, Germanyweb-site: http: //www.clavier-eu.org/

• EDEN (Emerging diseases in a changing European environment – IP (until 31/10/2009)Co-ordinator: Centre de Coopèration International de Recherche Agronomique pour le Developpement, Franceweb-site: http: //www.eden-fp6project.net

EPOCA Project Office, Villefranche-sur-mer France (hansson@obs-vlfr.fr)

The EPOCA project: European Initiative on Ocean Acidification- 27 institutes from 9 European countries - Co-ordinator: CNRS, France-Total budget: 15.9 M€, EC contribution: 6.5 M€- Duration 48 months (starting 01/05/2008)- Web-site: http: // www.epoca-project.eu

Svalbard campaigns 2009 and 2010:EPOCA focuses on areas where oceanacidification is thought to strike first, such as theArctic Ocean and the North Atlantic, where watertemperatures are low and the CO2 dissolvesmore easily.

AQCWA (Assessing Climate Change Impacts on the Quality and Quantity of Water)

• EC funding: EUR 6.5 million, IP, 29 partners• Duration: 60 months (started 01/10/2008)• Co-ordinator: University of Geneva, Switzerland• Major activities of ACQWA are:

- Assess the vulnerability of water resources in mountain regions.- Use, refine and develop numerical models;- Predict the evolution of these systems over the next 50 years;- Assess the potential impacts on economic sectors such as energy, agriculture, tourism;- Propose adaptation options for risk minimization .

• International partners from Chile, Argentina, Kyrgyzstan

• Web-site: http: //www.acqwa.ch

GENESIS (Groundwater and Dependent Ecosystems: New Scientific Basis on Climate Change and Land-Use Impacts for the Update of the EU Groundwater Directive)

• EC funding: EUR 3.9 million, CP, 26 partners• Duration: 54 months (started 01/04/2009)• Co-ordinator:Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and

Environmental Research (Bioforsk) ,Norway• Major activities of GENESIS include:

- Impacts of landuse changes and climate changes on groundwaters (GW) and groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDE);- Case studies on impacts and threats to GWs and GDEs;- Groundwater dynamics, re-charge and water balance- Groundwater dependent ecosystems: groundwater-surface water interaction;- Modelling processes in groundwater systems;- Concepts, scenarios and risk assessment.

• Web-site: http: //www.thegenesisproject.eu

ice2sea (Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise)

• EC funding: EUR 9.9 million, CP-IP, 24 partners• Duration: 51 months (started 01/03/2009)• Co-ordinator: British Antarctic Survey Cambridge, United Kingdom• Major activities of ice2sea are:

- Improved understanding of the key processes that control glacial systems (ice sheets and mountain glacier)- New methodologies for the prediction of global sea-level rise based on improved models- Updated assessments of the likely contribution of the cryosphere to sea-level rise over the next 200 years- A collective view of the likelihood of catastrophic sea-level rise, due collapse of either Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets.- A clearer view of uncertainties

• The ice2sea program will directly inform the ongoing international debate on climate-change mitigation, and European debates surrounding coastal adaptation and sea-defence planning

• Web-site: http: //www.ice2sea.org

HERMIONE (Hotspot Ecosystem Research and Man's Impact on European seas)

• EC funding: EUR 8.0 million, IP, 38 partners• Duration: 36 months (started 01/04/2009)• Co-ordinator: Natural Environment Research

Council, United Kingdom• Major activities of HERMIONE include:

- Advance in knowledge of the functioning of deep-sea ecosystems and their contribution to the production of goods and services;- Interdisciplinary approach (including biologists, ecologists, microbiologists, biogeochemists, sedimentologists, physical oceanographers, modelers and socio-economists;- Integration of biodiversity, specific adaptions and biological capacity in the context of a wide range of highly vulnerable deep-sea habitats;- Study sites include the Arctic, North Atlantic and Mediterranean and cover a range of ecosystems including cold-water corals, canyons, cold and hot seeps, seamounts and open slopes and deep-basins.

• International partners from Russia• Web-site: http: //www.eu-hermione.net/

CLEAR(Climate change, environmental contaminants and reproductive health)

• EC funding: EUR 2.37 million, CP, 8 partners• Duration: 48 months (started 01/05/2009)• Co-ordinator: Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark• Major activities of CLEAR are:

- investigates how climate change may affect human exposure to widespread environmental contaminants and how these contaminants may in turn affect the occurrence of human reproductive disorders;- Focus on Greenland, comparisons with Poland and Ukraine (works with mother-child cohorts established in these countries).

• International partners from Canada, Ukraine

ArcRisk(Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europa owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling)

• EC funding: EUR 3.49 million, CP, 21 partners• Duration: 48 months (started 01/06/2009)• Co-ordinator: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment

Programme (AMAP)• Major activities of ArcRisk are:

- Research on impacts that changing pathways and climatic conditions will have on contaminant uptake and transfer within foodwebs, leading to foods consumed by humans;- Study the effects of climate change on the transport and distribution of environmental contaminants and how these changes may alter human exposure to contaminants and hence the various impacts on human health.

• International partners from Canada, Russia

Climate Relevant Projects on Natural Hazards and Extreme Events

FP6:

• MICRODIS (Integrated health, social and economic impacts of extreme events: evidence, methods & tools) – IP (until 31/01/2010)Co-ordinator: Universitè Catholique de Louvain, Belgiumweb-site: http: //www.microdis-eu.be/

IMPRINTS (Improving preparedness and risk management for flash floods and debris flow events)

• EC funding: EUR 3.3 million, CP, 18 partners• Duration: 42 months (started 15/01/2009)• Co-ordinator: Universitat Polytècnica di

Catalunya, Spain• Major activities of IMPRINTS include:

- Contribution to reduce loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and operational risk management for Flash Flood and Debris Flow [FF/DF] generating events- Development of methods and tools to be used by emergency agencies and utility companies responsible for the management of FF/DF risks and associated effects. - Analyses of impacts of future changes, including climatic, land use and socioeconomic to provide guidelines for mitigation and adaptation measures.

• International partners from South Africa• Web-site: http://www.imprints-fp7.eu

MOVE (Methods for the improvement of vulnerability assessment in Europe)

• EC funding: EUR 2.1 million, CP, 12 partners

• Duration: 36 months (started 01/010/2008)

• Co-ordinator: Università degli Studi di Firenze, Italy

ENSURE (Enhancing resilience of communities and territories facing natural and na-tech hazards)

• EC funding: EUR 1.38million, CP, 7 partners• Duration: 32 months (started 01/06/2008)• Co-ordinator: BUREAU DE RECHERCHE GEOLOGIQUES ET

MINIERES, France

- The overall objective of ENSURE is to structure vulnerability assessment model(s) in a way that different aspects of physical, systemic, social and economic vulnerability will be integrated as much as possible in a coherent framework. - The project will start by assessing the state of the art in different fields related to various vulnerability aspects as they have been tackled until today in Europe and internationally. - The core of the project consists in integrated models comprising already existing models to assess vulnerability and develop new ones for those aspects that have been neglected until now. The research objective is therefore to achieve progress with respect to each individual sector of vulnerability and to enhance the capability of assessing interconnections among them in a dynamic way.

• International partner from Israel

MICORE (Morphological impacts and coastal risks induced by extreme storm events)

• EC funding: EUR 3.5 million, CP, 15 partners• Duration: 36 months (started 01/06/2008)• Co-ordinator: Universita Degli Studi di Ferrara, Italy• Major activities of MICORE include:

- Development of probabilistic mapping of the morphological impact of marine storms and to the production of early warning and information systems to support long-term disaster reduction;- Conception of Storm Impact Indicators with defined threshold for the identification of major morphological changes and flooding associated risks;- Dissemination of risk maps through an effective Web GIS system.

• Web-site: http: //www.micore.eu

Climate Change Adaptation, Mitigation and Policies

FP6:

• ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy) – IP (until 31/07/2009)Co-ordinator: University of East Anglia, United Kingdomweb-site: http: //www.adamproject.eu/

• ADAGIO Adaptation of agriculture in the European regions at environmental risk under climate change)Co-ordinator: University of Natural Resources and Applied Sciences, Austriaweb-site: http: //www.adagio-eu.org

ClimateCost (Full Costs of Climate Change)

• EC funding: EUR 3.5 million, CP, 21 partners• Duration: 32 months (started 01/12/2008)• Co-ordinator: Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford Office,

United Kingdom

• Major activities of ClimateCost are:- Quantify in physical terms, and economic costs, the ‘costs of inaction’ for selected climate change and socio-economic scenarios for market and non-market sectors- Analysis to quantify and value the costs and benefits of adaptation, and the residual costs of climate change- Assessment of physical effects and economic damages of a number of the most important major catastrophic events,- Analysis of policy scenarios.

• International partner from China• Web-site:

http://www.climatecost.cc/ClimateCost/Welcome.html

CCTAME (Climate Change – Terrestrial Adaptation and Mitigation in Europe)

• EC funding: EUR 3.4 million, CP, 14 partners• Duration: 36 months (started 01/06/2008)• Co-ordinator: International Institute for Applied Systems

Analysis, Austria• Major activities of CCTAME are:

- assessment of the impacts of agricultural, climate, energy, forestry and other associated land-use policies, considering the resulting feed-backs on the climate system- coupling of economic land-use models will with regional climate models to assess and identify mitigation and adaptation strategies in European agriculture and forestry- provision of quantitative assessments in terms of cost-efficiency and environmental effectiveness of individual land-use practice- evaluation of policy options at a great level of detail for EU25(27) in a post-Kyoto regime, as well as offering perspectives on global longer-term policy strategies.

• Web-site: http: //www.cctame.eu

HighNoon (Adaptation to changing water resources availability in Northern India with Himalayan glacier retreat and changing monsoon)

• EC funding: EUR 3.3 million, CP, 9 partners• Duration: 36 months (started 01/05/2009)• Co-ordinator: Alterra b.v., The Netherlands• Major activities of HighNoon are:

- Assess the impact of Himalayan glaciers retreat and possible changes of the Indian summer monsoon on the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources;- Provide recommendations for appropriate and efficient response strategies for adaptation to hydrological extreme events;- Improve climate forecast skills at regional scale;- Integrate socio-economic drivers in the studies.

• International partners from India, Japan• Web-site:

http://www.eu-highnoon.org/nl/25222858-Home.html

1978

2008

REDD-ALERT (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation through Alternative Landuses in Rainforests of the Tropics)

• EC funding: EUR 3.4 million, CP, 12 partners• Duration: 36 months (started 01/04/2009)• Co-ordinator: Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, United

Kingdom• The overall objectives of REDD-ALERT is:

– To contribute to the development and evaluation of mechanisms and the institutions needed at multiple levels for changing stakeholder behaviour to slow tropical deforestation rates and hence reduce GHG emissions.

• This will be achieved through enhancing the understanding of the social, cultural, economic and ecological drivers of forest transition in selected case study areas in Southeast Asia, Africa and South America

• International partners from Kenya, Indonesia, Nigeria, Colombia, Vietnam, Cameroon and Peru

• Web-site: http: //www.redd-alert.eu/

Related FP7 Projects under negotiation

• CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basin: Reducing Uncertainty and Quantifying Risk through an Integrated Monitoring and Modelling System) –CP

• WASSERMed (Water Availability and Security in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean)– CP

• CLIMSAVE (Climate Change Integrated Assessment Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe) – CP

• MEDIATION (Methodology for Effective Decision Making on Impacts and Adaptation)– CP

• CORFU (Collaborative Research on Flood Resilience in Urban Areas) - CP

Thank you very much for your attention

More info onhttp://ec.europa.eu/research