FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2020 INVESTOR …
Transcript of FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2020 INVESTOR …
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FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2020INVESTOR CONFERENCE CALL
February 16, 2021
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DISCLAIMER
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements in this presentation, other than statements of historical facts, including statements regarding our strategy, future operations, future financial position, future revenues, future costs, prospects, plans and objectives of management are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Statements that include the words ”expect,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “predict,” "believe," “think,” “plan,” “will,” “should,” “intend,” “seek,” “potential” and similar expressions and variations are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. All forward-looking statements address matters that involve risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements and, therefore, you should not place undue reliance on any such statements. These factors include, without limitation, economic, business, competitive, market and regulatory conditions and the following: the impact of COVID-19 on our business; decreases in the demand for leased containers; decreases in market leasing rates for containers; difficulties in re-leasing containers after their initial fixed-term leases; customers' decisions to buy rather than lease containers; dependence on a limited number of customers for a substantial portion of our revenues; customer defaults; decreases in the selling prices of used containers; extensive competition in the container leasing industry; difficulties stemming from the international nature of Triton’s businesses; decreases in the demand for international trade; disruption to our operations resulting from political and economic policies of the United States and other countries, particularly China, including but not limited to the impact of trade wars and tariffs; disruption to our operations from failure of or attacks on our information technology systems; disruption to our operations as a result of natural disasters, compliance with laws and regulations related to economic and trade sanctions, security, anti-terrorism, environmental protection and corruption; ability to obtain sufficient capital to support growth; restrictions imposed by the terms of our debt agreements; changes in the tax laws in Bermuda, the United States and other countries; and other risks and uncertainties, including those listed under the caption “Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019 (the “Form 10-K”) or other reports we file with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.
The foregoing list of important factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with the other cautionary statements that are included herein and elsewhere, including the risk factors in our Form 10-K. Any forward-looking statements made herein are qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements, and there can be no assurance that the actual results or developments anticipated by us will be realized or, even if substantially realized, that they will have the expected consequences to, or effects on, us or our businesses or operations. Except to the extent required by applicable law, we undertake no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise. Certain financial measures presented in this presentation are identified as not being prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). Please refer to the Appendix hereto for a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to their most comparable GAAP measures.
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HIGHLIGHTS
Triton achieved outstanding results in the fourth quarter of 2020
» Adjusted net income of $114.7 million, or $1.70 per share, up approximately 50% from Q3 2020
» Q4 annualized return on equity of 22.9%
» 2020 full year Adjusted EPS $4.61; full year ROE 15.9%
Market conditions are currently exceptionally strong
» Trade volumes well above pre-pandemic levels
» Container supply tight due to limited procurement in second half of 2019 and first half of 2020
Triton performed well and created value across a full range of market conditions in 2020
» Solid performance in first half during trade slowdown; focused investment on share repurchases
» Rapid growth in profitability as trade surged in second half, and shifted investment to value-added fleet growth
Triton is starting 2021 with substantial momentum
» Utilization near maximum level
» Already ordered $1.7 billion of containers for delivery in 2021, with vast majority committed to lease
» Expect Q1 Adjusted EPS to hold steady or increase slightly from record level in Q4 2020
Expect benefits from current market surge will be durable
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CURRENT MARKET OVERVIEW
Market conditions remain exceptionally strong, with no signs of the typical Q1 slowdown
» Trade volumes continue to be boosted by shift in consumption from services to goods
» Most shipping lines facing significant container shortages
» Shipping lines relying heavily on leasing to fulfill supply requirements
Availability of containers remains very limited
» Triton’s and other lessors’ utilization near maximum
» Inventory of new containers very low and factory space tight even as manufacturers increasing production
» Container availability currently a key bottleneck to trade, leading to jump in new container prices and market lease rates
Used container sale prices exceptionally high
» Strong demand for used containers, especially for one-way cargo moves
» Few containers available for sale
Triton leveraging our extensive supply capability to meet customers’ needs and secure sizable deal share
» Have booked or supplied over 1.3 million TEU of new and used container since July
» Estimate new container leasing share in range of 35% during current surge
» Securing high value leases
– Expected lifetime ROE for new container investments in upper teens
– Average lease duration over ten years for new containers
– Most used containers supplied onto lifecycle leases
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SHIFT IN CONSUMPTION FROM SERVICES TO GOODS DRIVING SURGE IN TRADE VOLUMES
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Retail Inventories Remain Below Normal
Consumer Spend Shifts From Services To Goods
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Ending Quarterly Utilization (CEU)
TRITON’S KEY OPERATING METRICS VERY STRONG
Ending Quarterly Utilization (CEU) Dry Container Pick-up / Drop-off Activity (TEU) (1)
Trend of Leasing Transactions – New Dry Containers Dry Depot Lease Inventory in Asia(1) Excludes Sale-leaseback equipment.
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CONTAINER SUPPLY VERY TIGHT THOUGH FACTORY PRODUCTION RAMPING UP
New Dry Factory Inventory New Dry Container Production
Jan. 31st Inventory:Lessors 74kLines 143kTotal 217k
Source: Drewry Annual Report and data from internal sources. Excludes non-leasing and non-shipping purchasers.
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2019 (A): 1.88M TEU2020 (A): 2.22M TEU
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VESSEL SPACE AND CONTAINER SHORTAGES DRIVING FREIGHT RATES AND CONTAINER PRICES TO RECORD LEVELS
Container Spot Freight Rates and Fuel Cost
Source: Bloomberg. Freight rates are for a 40’ dry container. Bunker fuel is 380 cst prior to Jan. 1, 2020 and VLSFO thereafter. VLSFO is very-low sulfur fuel oil that complies with the new IMO 2020 regulations and trades at a premium to regular 380 cst bunker fuel.
New Box Prices
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CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF ADJUSTED NET INCOME (*)
(*) Adjusted net income is a non-GAAP financial measure. See Appendix.(1) Excludes debt termination expense, and net unrealized loss or gains on derivative instruments.(2) Excludes foreign income tax adjustment and tax benefit from vesting of restricted shares.
(In thousands, except earnings per share) Q4 '20 Q3'20 % Change 2020 2019 % Change
Total leasing revenues 337,285$ 327,757$ 2.9% 1,307,907$ 1,347,269$ (2.9%)
Trading margin 6,977 3,869 80.3% 14,799 14,508 2.0%
Net gain on sale of leasing equipment 18,422 10,737 71.6% 37,773 27,041 39.7%
Depreciation and amortization 139,893 136,248 2.7% 542,128 536,131 1.1%
Interest and debt expense 54,327 62,776 (13.5%) 252,755 313,933 (19.5%)
Total ownership costs 194,220 199,024 (2.4%) 794,883 850,064 (6.5%)
Direct operating expenses 14,831 25,992 (42.9%) 93,690 79,074 18.5%
Administrative expenses 19,440 21,395 (9.1%) 80,532 75,867 6.1%
Provision (reversal) for doubtful accounts (1,840) (45) N/A 2,768 590 N/A
Other (income) expense, net (192) (631) (69.6%) (4,433) (3,257) 36.1%
Income attributable to noncontrolling interest - N/A - 592 N/A
Adjusted pretax income (1)
136,225$ 96,628$ 41.0% 393,039$ 385,888$ 1.9%
Income tax expense 11,036 8,060 36.9% 31,827 30,587 4.1%
Adjusted net income (1)(2)
125,189$ 88,568$ 41.3% 361,212$ 355,301$ 1.7%
Less: dividend on preferred shares 10,512 10,512 0.0% 41,362 13,646 203.1%
Adjusted net income attributable to common shareholders (1)(2)
114,677$ 78,056$ 46.9% 319,850$ 341,655$ (6.4%)
Adjusted net income per common share 1.70$ 1.14$ 49.1% 4.61$ 4.57$ 0.9%
Weighted average number of common shares outstanding - diluted 67,571 68,582 (1.5%) 69,345 74,700 (7.2%)
Return on equity 22.9% 15.8% 15.9% 16.0%
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PROFITABILITY DRIVERS
Revenue earning assets up 0.7%, despite decrease in first half
Leasing revenue down 2.9%
UTE averaged 96.2% in 2020, down 0.7% for the year; up 4.1% during 2H 2020
Direct opex increased $14.6 million, primarily due to higher storage costs and redeliveries during the first half of 2020
Gain on sale and trading margin up by $11.0 million due to strong increases in dry container prices and disposal volumes in the second half
Fleet Size
Utilization
Disposal Activity
Credit
Sequential Change:Q4 2020 vs Q3 2020
Year-over-Year Change: FY 2020 vs FY 2019
Revenue earning assets up 2.9%
Leasing revenue up 2.9%
UTE averaged 98.1% in Q4, up 2.0% from Q3. UTE 98.9% as of 12/31/2020
Direct opex decreased $11.2 million, primarily due to lower storage costs and redeliveries
Gain on sale and trading margin up by $10.8 million due to increases in dry container prices partially offset by lower disposal volumes
Customer payment performance strong
Minimal credit charges
Customer payment performance strong
Partial reversal of credit charge taken in Q1
Share Count
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding decreased by 5.4 million, or 7.2% due to share repurchases
Weighted average diluted shares outstanding decreased by 1.0 million, or 1.5% due to share repurchases
67.3 million diluted shares outstanding as of 12/31/2020
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STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND LIQUIDITY
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Cash Flow Coverage
Leverage well below historical average
Strong cash flow and liquidity
Well structured debt profile with no significant maturity cliffs
Efficient access to wide range of funding sources
Expected cash flows in excess of principal payments through 2022
Issued $503MM of ABS Notes at an average rate of 1.70% in January 2021
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Diversified Capital Stack
Secured Debt
Equity
($ in mm)
LTM operating cash flow plus proceeds from the sale of leasing equipment 1,199$
Cash on hand 62$
Maximum remaining borrowing capacity under revolvers 1,661$
Sources of liquidity 2,921$
Next twelve months:
Principal repayment obligations (661)$
Equipment purchase payable and commitments (1,257)$
Major cash obligations (1,918)$
Excess sources 1,003$
Coverage of major cash obligations 152%
Highlights
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STABLE CASH FLOWS AND STEADY SHAREHOLDER VALUE CREATION
Steady Value Creation (4)
(3) All periods exclude purchase accounting adjustments. Net Debt defined as Total Debt plus Equipment Purchases Payable less Cash and Restricted Cash.
Cash Flow Before Capex (1)(2)
Net Debt as % of REA (3)
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(4) Adjusted tangible book value defined as Shareholders Equity, less Goodwill plus Net Deferred Tax Liability plus Net Swap Liability, before purchase accounting adjustments. Reflects TAL standalone for Q2 2016 and prior periods.
GAAPBVPS:$29.90
Adj.TBV:
$38.39
Cumulative Dividends Per Share
Adjusted Tangible Book Value Per Share
Book Value Per Share
Industrial & Commodity Recession
Trade War / COVID-19 /
Pref. Issuance
(1) See Non-GAAP Financial Information in the Appendix.(2) Reflects purchase accounting adjustments for 2017-2020.
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FLEXIBLE AND STRATEGIC APPROACH TO CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Challenging market conditions due to global industrial recession
Closed merger between Triton and TAL
Strong market rebound
Limited competition for new deals
$1.6 bn in capex
Strong market continues
$1.6 bn in capex
Trade wars and weak global trade
Limited capex
$220 mm in stock buybacks
COVID-19 derails trade in first half
$158 mm in stock buybacks
Strong market inflection in July
Shifted to growth capex in 2H 2020
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Trade growth and container demand very strong to start year
Year-to-date capex already $1.7 bn
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OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSIONS
2020 was a remarkable year for Triton
» Performed well throughout challenging first half and created meaningful value through share repurchases
» Drove operating and financial performance to record levels in second half and quickly pivoted to growth
» Demonstrated advantages of market leadership and disciplined capital allocation
» Provided large, critically needed container solutions for customers, further securing leadership position
Triton is starting 2021 with significant operating and financial momentum
» Market conditions remain very strong
» Our critical operating metrics at high levels
» Have already secured a substantial volume of attractive new container lease transactions for 2021
Expect our Adjusted EPS in Q1 will hold steady or slightly increase from record level achieved in Q4 2020
We expect the benefits from the current surge in trade will be durable
» Large number of used containers placed on lifecycle leases will underpin utilization
» Substantial investments in new containers locked into long duration leases with attractive returns
» Expect 2021 Adjusted EPS will be well above full year 2020 results and expect ROE to remain high
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Appendix
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LONG TERM LEASE EXPIRATIONS (*)
Dry
Percent of Fleet 6.0% 2.1% 5.1% 6.3% 2.8% 5.7% 3.6%
Refrigerated
Percent of Fleet 2.6% 2.4% 1.6% 2.3% 1.9% 1.1% 1.3%
* Excludes Sale Age Equipment
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ADJUSTED TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE PER SHARE AS OF 12/31/20
(In thousands, except per share amounts)Combined
Purchase
Accounting Consolidated
Total assets 9,846,501$ (133,968)$ 9,712,533$
Total liabilities 7,203,437 (56,852) 7,146,585
Preferred shareholders' equity 555,000 - 555,000
Common shareholders' equity 2,088,064 (77,116) 2,010,948
Total equity 2,643,064 (77,116) 2,565,948
Total liabilities and equity 9,846,501$ (133,968)$ 9,712,533$
Common shares outstanding 67,250
Book value per share $29.90
Reconciliation to adjusted tangible book value
Common shareholders' equity 2,088,064$
Less: Goodwill (21,292)
Plus: Net deferred tax liability 386,166
Plus: Net swap liability 128,863
Adjusted tangible book value 2,581,802$
Adjusted tangible book value per share $38.39
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EQUITY CASH FLOW
Typical Prioritization of Cash Flow
(1) Represents depreciation, NBV of disposals, and principal payments on finance leases.(2) Based on closing stock price of $54.36 on 2/12/21.(3) Reflects annualized first quarter dividend.(4) Based on 75% debt to revenue earning assets.
($000, except per share amounts) Q4 Annualized
Cash flow before capex 1,355,072
1. Maintain ability to service customers/replacement capex1 852,224
Cash flow after replacement capex 502,848
Steady-state cash flow yield2 13.8%
2. Pay regular dividend of $2.28 per share3 153,330
Dividend yield2 4.2%
Cash flow after replacement capex and regular dividend 349,518
Capital Allocation Options
3A. Growth Capex
- Levered growth in revenue earning assets4 1,398,072
- Potential REA growth 15.6%
3B. Share repurchase 349,518
- Percent of outstanding shares at current price 9.6%
3C. Additional dividends 349,518
- Potential additional per share distribution $5.20
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RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL INFORMATION
(In thousands) Q4
annualized
Income before income taxes 543,468
Add:
Debt termination expense 1,432
Adjusted pre-tax income 544,900
Interest and debt expense 217,308
Depreciation and amortization 559,576
Adjusted EBITDA 1,321,784
Principal payments on finance leases 77,196
NBV of container disposals 215,452
Major cash in flows 1,614,432
Interest and debt expense 217,308
Preferred stock dividends (*) 42,052
Cash flow before capex 1,355,072$
(*) Annual dividend payment on preferred equity Series A of $86.25M @
8.5%, Series B of $143.75M @ 8.0%, Series C of $175M @ 7.375% and
Series D of $150M @ 6.875%
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CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME
(In thousands, except earnings per share) Q4 '20 Q3 '20 % Change 2020 2019 % Change
Total leasing revenues 337,285$ 327,757$ 2.9% 1,307,907$ 1,347,269 (2.9%)
Trading margin 6,977 3,869 80.3% 14,799 14,508 2.0%
Net gain on sale of leasing equipment 18,422 10,737 71.6% 37,773 27,041 39.7%
Depreciation and amortization 139,893 136,248 2.7% 542,128 536,131 1.1%
Interest and debt expenses 54,327 62,776 (13.5%) 252,755 313,933 (19.5%)
Total ownership costs 194,220 199,024 (2.4%) 794,883 850,064 (6.5%)
Direct operating expenses 14,831 25,992 (42.9%) 93,690 79,074 18.5%
Administrative expenses 19,440 21,395 (9.1%) 80,532 75,867 6.1%
Provision for doubtful accounts (1,840) (45) N/A 2,768 590 N/A
Other (income) expense, net (192) (631) (69.6%) (4,433) (3,257) 36.1%
Unrealized loss (gain) on swaps and debt termination expense 358 24,345 (98.5%) 25,020 5,650 342.8%
Total operating and other costs 32,597 71,056 (54.1%) 197,577 157,924 25.1%
Income before income taxes 135,867 72,283 88.0% 368,019 380,830 (3.4%)
Income tax expense 10,170 15,825 (35.7%) 38,240 27,551 38.8%
Net income 125,697$ 56,458$ 122.6% 329,779$ 353,279$ (6.7%)
Less: income attributable to noncontrolling interest - - N/A - 592 N/A
Less: dividend on preferred shares 10,512 10,512 0.0% 41,362 13,646 203.1%
Net Income attributable to common shareholders 115,185$ 45,946$ 150.7% 288,417$ 339,041$ (14.9%)
Net income per common share - Diluted 1.70$ 0.67$ 154.4% 4.16$ 4.54$ (8.4%)
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RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL INFORMATION
(1) Annualized Adjusted net income was calculated based on calendar days per quarter.(2) Average Shareholders' equity was calculated using the quarter’s beginning and ending Shareholder’s equity for the three-month ended periods. Average
Shareholders’ equity for the full year was calculated using the ending Shareholder’s equity for each quarter and the previous year-end. Average shareholders’ equity excludes preferred shares.
(In thousands, except earnings per share)
Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 2019 Total Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 2020 Total
Net income attributable to common shareholders 91,914$ 84,071$ 85,895$ 77,161$ 339,041$ 67,211$ 60,075$ 45,946$ 115,185$ 288,417$
Add (subtract):
Debt termination expense & unrealized (gain) loss on
derivative instruments, net903 1,872 1,958 435 5,168 294 12 21,140 358 21,804
State and other income tax adjustments - 414 (931) - (517) - (85) 2,341 (866) 1,390 Tax adjustments related to intra-entity asset transfer - - - - - - - 8,629 - 8,629
Tax benefit from vesting of restricted shares - - (1,972) (65) (2,037) (390) - - - (390)
Adjusted net income attributable to common shareholders 92,817$ 86,357$ 84,950$ 77,531$ 341,655$ 67,115$ 60,002$ 78,056$ 114,677$ 319,850$
Adjusted net income per common share - Diluted 1.19$ 1.15$ 1.16$ 1.07$ 4.57$ 0.93$ 0.86$ 1.14$ 1.70$ 4.61$
Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 2019 Total Q1 '20 Q2 '20 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 2020 Total
Adjusted net income 92,817$ 86,357$ 84,950$ 77,531$ 341,655$ 67,115$ 60,002$ 78,056$ 114,677$ 319,850$
Annualized adjusted net income (1) 376,425 346,377 337,030 307,596 341,655 269,198 240,667 309,679 454,969 319,850
Beginning Shareholders' equity 2,203,696 2,165,025 2,106,608 2,077,979 2,203,696 2,127,237 1,995,250 1,953,950 1,963,889 2,127,237
Ending Shareholders' equity 2,165,025 2,106,608 2,077,979 2,127,237 2,127,237 1,995,250 1,953,950 1,963,889 2,010,948 2,010,948
Average common shareholders' equity (2)2,184,361$ 2,135,817$ 2,092,294$ 2,102,608$ 2,136,109$ 2,061,244$ 1,974,600$ 1,958,920$ 1,987,419$ 2,010,255$
Return on equity 17.2% 16.2% 16.1% 14.6% 16.0% 13.1% 12.2% 15.8% 22.9% 15.9%
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NON-GAAP FINANCIAL INFORMATION
We use the terms "Adjusted net income," “Adjusted EPS,” “Return on equity,” “cash flow before capex” and other non-GAAP financial measures throughout this presentation. These items are not presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP and should not be considered as alternatives to, or more meaningful than, amounts determined in accordance with U.S. GAAP, including net income or cash flow from operations.
Adjusted net income is adjusted for certain items management believes are not representative of our operating performance. Adjusted net income is defined as net income attributable to common shareholders excluding debt termination expenses net of tax, unrealized gains and losses on derivative instruments net of tax, and foreign and other income tax adjustments.
We believe that Adjusted net income is useful to an investor in evaluating our operating performance because this item:
• is widely used by securities analysts and investors to measure a company's operating performance;
• helps investors to more meaningfully evaluate and compare the results of our operations from period to period by removing the impact of certain non-routine events which we do not expect to occur in the future; and
• is used by our management for various purposes, including as measures of operating performance and liquidity, to assist in comparing performance from period to period on a consistent basis, in presentations to our board of directors concerning our financial performance and as a basis for strategic planning and forecasting.
We have provided a reconciliation of net income attributable to common shareholders, the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measure, to Adjusted net income in the tables below for the periods presented.
Return on equity is adjusted annualized earnings divided by average shareholders' equity. Management utilizes return on equity in evaluating how much profit the Company generates on the shareholders' equity in the Company and believes it is useful for comparing the profitability of companies in the same industry.
Cash Flow Before CapEx is defined as Adjusted net income plus depreciation and amortization, taxes, principal payments on finance leases and NBV of container disposals.
Certain forward-looking information included in this presentation is provided only on a non-GAAP basis without a reconciliation of these measures to the mostly directly comparable GAAP measure due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting and quantifying certain amounts that are necessary for such reconciliation. These items depend on highly variable factors, many of which may not be in our control, and which could vary significantly from future GAAP financial results.
Additionally, throughout this presentation, the combined financial information from 2016 and prior periods does not reflect results on a GAAP basis. GAAP financial statements reflect only the TAL operations prior to the merger of TCIL and TAL on July 12, 2016, and can be found in the Company’s 10-Q and 10-K filings.