Fourth Quarter 2015 Resultss1.q4cdn.com/.../2015/Q4/Slides_Q4_2015_FINAL.pdfFourth Quarter 2015...
Transcript of Fourth Quarter 2015 Resultss1.q4cdn.com/.../2015/Q4/Slides_Q4_2015_FINAL.pdfFourth Quarter 2015...
1 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
February 5th, 2016
Fourth Quarter 2015 Results
2 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Forward-looking and non-IFRS statements
DRIVING VALUE THROUGH CUSTOMIZED SERVICE EXPERIENCE
Public communications, including oral or written communications such as this document, relating to Genworth MI Canada Inc. (the
“Company”, “Genworth Canada” or “MIC”) often contain certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements
include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the Company’s future operating and financial results, expectations
regarding premiums written, losses on claims and investment income, the Canadian housing market, and other statements that are
not historical facts. These forward-looking statements may be identified by their use of words such as “may”, “would”, “could”, “will,”
“intend”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “seek”, “propose”, “estimate”, “expect”, and similar expressions. These statements are based
on the Company’s current assumptions, including assumptions regarding economic, global, political, business, competitive, market
and regulatory matters. These forward-looking statements are inherently subject to significant risks, uncertainties and changes in
circumstances, many of which are beyond the control of the Company. The Company’s actual results may differ materially from
those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including as a result of changes in the facts underlying the
Company’s assumptions, and the other risks described in the Company’s Annual Information Form dated March 23, 2015, its Short
Form Base Shelf Prospectus dated June 18, 2014, the Prospectus Supplements thereto, its most recently issued Management’s
Discussion and Analysis and all documents incorporated by reference in such documents. Management’s current views regarding
the Company’s financial outlook are stated as of the date hereof and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Other than as
required by applicable laws, the Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement,
whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
To supplement its financial statements, the Company uses select non-IFRS financial measures. Non-IFRS financial measures
include net operating income, interest and dividend income (net of investment expenses), operating earnings per common share
(basic), operating earnings per common share (diluted), shareholders’ equity excluding accumulated other comprehensive income
(“AOCI”), operating return on equity and underwriting ratios such as loss ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio. The Company
believes that these non-IFRS financial measures provide meaningful supplemental information regarding its performance and may
be useful to investors because they allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by management in its financial
and operational decision making. Non-IFRS measures do not have standardized meanings and are unlikely to be comparable to any
similar measures presented by other companies. These measures are defined in the Company’s glossary, which is posted on the
Company’s website at http://investor.genworthmicanada.ca. A reconciliation from non-IFRS financial measures to the most readily
comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS, where applicable can be found in the Company’s most recent
management’s discussion and analysis, which is posted on the Company’s website and is also available at www.sedar.com.
3 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
2015 financial results
$MM except
ROE, EPS &
MCT
Q4
2015 Q / Q Y / Y 2015 Y / Y
Premiums
written $213 -18% +20% $809 +26%
Loss ratio 23% +2 pts -3 pts 21% +1 pt
Operating
Income $95 +3% +14% $375 +3%
Operating ROE 12% Flat +1% 12% Flat
Operating EPS
(dil.) $1.03 +3% +16% $4.05 +5%
MCT1 233% +5 pts +5 pts 233% +5 pts
2015 key highlights
• Strong 2015 top line growth of +26% Y/Y
• Loss ratio of 21%, at lower end of stated range
• Operating income +3% and Op. EPS +5% Y/Y
• Consistent ROE performance at 12%
• Ongoing capital strength with MCT ratio at 233%1
• Book value per share2 growth of 5%
Operating EPS (diluted)
0.96 1.03
1.04 0.99
0.97 1.00
0.89 1.03
2014 2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
$3.86 $4.05
Book Value Per Share (diluted, incl. AOCI)
35.02 36.07 36.18 36.14
36.82
Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
+5%
YoY
Q4
+5%
YoY
1. Year end MCT based on company estimates. Actual year-end MCT for 2014 was 225%, pro-forma under 2015 guidelines was 228%.
2. Book value per share, diluted, including AOCI.
4 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
2015 key accomplishments
PROVEN BUSINESS MODEL .... WELL POSITIONED GOING INTO 2016
Strong but prudent
top line growth
High quality and
diversified insurance
portfolio, with a strong
risk culture1
21% loss ratio at lower
end of stated range
~34%
Current
market share CREDIT
SCORE
20% to 30% range
Note: Company sources
1. Average credit score for 2015 volumes.
25%
25% cumulative price
increases since 2013
translate into earnings
tailwinds
Credit score
743
5 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
2016 key themes
• New standardized
capital test for mortgage
insurers
• More risk sensitive
• Increased capital on
new business if
regional house price
to income threshold is
exceeded
• 2017 implementation
• Regulatory rule change
may reduce demand for
portfolio insurance
Regulatory changes Economic environment
• Modestly smaller
mortgage originations
market
• Fiscally disciplined
first-time homebuyers
• Minimal impact from
downpayment rule
changes
• Focus on underwriting
quality throughout the
lending industry
Market dynamics
• Moderately lower total
premiums written
• Flat to modestly
lower transactional
premiums written
• Lower portfolio
insurance volumes
• Moderate growth of
5%+ expected in
premiums earned
• Loss ratio range for
2016 of 25% to 40%
• MCT ratio to remain
modestly above 220%
Implications
• Low oil prices
• Modest economic
growth (GDP)
• Slowing house price
appreciation
• Consumer
indebtedness and
regional affordability
pressures
6 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Regional risk assessment
Prudent underwriting
actions in Alberta &
Saskatchewan
Monitoring
housing risk in
GTA and GVA
Balanced risk
profile in
Quebec
and Ontario
Note: Based on Company estimates.
Ho
us
ing
ris
k
Economic risk Low High
High
GTA
GVA
Quebec
Alberta
Atlantic
Ontario
(ex GTA)
Prairies
Key Metrics
Price-to-income
Affordability
Price-to-rent
Key Metrics: GDP; UE Rate; Economic diversity
Pacific
(ex GVA)
7 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Portfolio quality improving
NATIONAL PORTFOLIO QUALITY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED COMPARED TO ‘07/08
Note: Company sources for transactional new insurance written.
2015 highlights
Credit score Average gross debt service ratio (%)
Steady credit score
improvement year-over-year
Modest home
price increases
Stable debt
servicing ratios
Median home price (In ‘$000s)
16
%
5%
71
6
74
3
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
% Score <660 (R) Avg score (L)
24
%
23
%
22
%
24
%
25
%
24
%
23
%
24
%
24
%
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
$2
25
$2
32
$2
40
$2
55
$2
70
$2
75
$2
80
$2
91
$2
95
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
8 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Outstanding delinquencies
Highlights
• Delinquencies up 7% Q/Q, primarily reflecting
seasonality
• Increases in Alberta, Quebec & Ontario
partially offset by a decrease in BC
• Delinquencies decreased in Ontario & B.C. Y/Y
• Delinquency rates relatively stable over the past
year 395 407 344 365 385
271 263 228 203 181
222 220 227 258 303
569 584 579 578
624
207 216 191 198
204
92 102
97 113 132
Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15
1,756 1,792
1,666 1,715
1,829
Ontario
BC2
Alberta
Quebec
Atlantic
Prairies1
Based on reported outstanding balances
Delinquency Rates3 Q1’15 Q2’15 Q3’15 Q4’154
Transactional 0.31% 0.29% 0.29% n.a.
Portfolio 0.08% 0.07% 0.08% n.a.
Total 0.22% 0.20% 0.21% n.a.
1 Prairies include MB and SK. 2 BC includes the Territories. 3 Delinquency rates are based on outstanding insured mortgages as at the end of the quarter and exclude
delinquencies that have been incurred but not reported. 4 Outstanding mortgage insured balances are reported on a one quarter lag.
9 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
2016 annual loss ratio expectations
MIC loss ratio1 & CBA delinquency rates1,2
2016 ANNUAL LOSS RATIO ESTIMATED RANGE: 25% TO 40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Canada loss ratio - MIC (RS)
2016 Loss
Ratio Range
Alberta delq.
rate (CBA) (LS)
Canada delq.
rate (CBA) (LS)
1 Source: Canadian Bankers Association (CBA, annual averages) and Company sources. 2 2009 excludes the impact of the change to the premium recognition curve in 1Q’09 3 Based on Company’s estimate of outstanding balance of insured mortgages as at September 30, 2015 of $184B. * CBA delinquency rates as of Q3 2015.
Alberta National
Unemployment rate 7.8 to 9.0% 7.4 to 8.0%
Home price appreciation (depreciation) (8) to (12)% 1 to (3)%
Assumptions for
loss ratio range
47% 50%
67% 71%
76%
81%
87% 91%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Portfolio <=2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Portfolio 2015
Effective Loan-to-Value by Book Year
National, as at September 30, 2015
> 20% Equity
O/S Insured Mortgage
Balances3 ($B)
Transactional Segment
$67 $24 $10 $13 $15 $16 $20 $18
Transactional
10 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Solid financial performance
$MM except EPS & BVPS Q4’15 Q3’15 Q4’14
Transactional premiums written $181 $236 $165
Portfolio premiums written 32 24 13
Total premiums written $213 $260 $178
Premiums earned 151 148 143
Losses on claims (35) (31) (37)
Expenses (27) (28) (30)
Underwriting income $90 $89 $76
Net investment income (excl. realized gains / losses)
44 42 43
Net operating income $95 $92 $84
Operating EPS (diluted)
$1.03 $1.00 $0.89
Book value per share (diluted, incl. AOCI)
$36.82 $36.14 $35.02
Q4 highlights
• Transactional premiums written higher by
10% Y/Y primarily due to premium rate
increases
• Premiums Earned increased by 3% Q/Q
and 6% Y/Y as a result of the larger
recent books and price increases
• Loss ratio of 23%, up 2 pts Q/Q consistent
with typical seasonality, and emerging
Alberta pressure, but down 3 pts Y/Y
• Net investment income modestly higher
Q/Q primarily due to higher invested
assets
• Net operating income modestly higher
Q/Q
• Book value per share up 5% Y/Y
11 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Transactional insurance
$19.5
$3.1 $3.9
$5.4 $6.8
$7.4
$8.3
$6.2
$6.2
2013 2014 2015
+$2.6B
+$3.1B
SOLID BUSINESS FUNDAMENTALS; FLAT TO MODESTLY LOWER
PREMIUMS WRITTEN FROM TRANSACTIONAL INSURANCE IN 2016
New insurance written ($ billions)
+$148M
Net premiums written ($ millions)
+$110M
Note: Company sources.
$19.5 $22.1
$25.2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
$447
$71 $104
$129 $183
$192
$236
$165
$181
2013 2014 2015
$447
$557
$705
Price = ~$43M
Vol. = ~$67M
Price = ~$67M
Vol. = ~$81M
2015
average
premium
rates
2.90%
2.83%
2.71%
2.65% Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2015 highlights 2016 outlook
Average market share increase of ~4 percentage
points in 2015; modestly larger origination market
Maintain market share in a
modestly smaller origination
market
Average premium rate
should be marginally
higher than 2.90%
2.29% 2.51% 2.79% Average
premium rate
12 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Portfolio insurance
+$4.6B +$18M
New insurance written ($ billions) Net premiums written ($ millions)
PORTFOLIO INSURANCE IS A KEY PART OF VALUE PROPOSITION
Note: Company sources.
+$5.7B
$15 $20
$6
$4
$6
$10
2013 2014 2015
+$21M
$65
$13 $26
$32 $22
$25 $24
$13
$32
2013 2014 2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Avg. score
Avg. LTV
756 750 756
63% 62% 65%
2015 highlights 2016 outlook
Large wins
at banks
Leveraging proprietary
risk models to drive
portfolio quality
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
$26
Regulatory rule change expected to moderate demand in 2H16 as
portfolio insurance could be limited to mortgages backing gov’t MBS
$82
$104
13 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Premiums earned growth
LARGER RECENT BOOKS PROVIDE TAILWIND FOR PREMIUMS EARNED
PREMIUMS EARNED IN 2016 TO GROW BY 5%+ DRIVEN BY LARGER RECENT BOOKS
$244 $209 $228
$999 $991 $1,025
$481 $599 $767
2013 2014 2015
6 years & prior Previous 4 books Most recent
+25% +28%
-1% +3%
-14% +9% $144 $141 $143
$143 $141 $144
$143 $140 $148
$142 $143 $151
2013 2014 2015
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Unearned premiums reserve ($ millions) Premiums earned ($ millions)
FY $573 FY $565 $1.7B $1.8B $2.0B
Note: Company sources.
FY $586
-1% +4%
(2013 book) (2014 book)
(2015 book)
(2011-2014
books)
(2010-2013
books)
(2009-2012
books)
+4% +12%
14 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Solid underwriting profitability
76 87 90 89 90
30 24 29 28 27
37 31 25 31 35
Q4' 14 Q1' 15 Q2' 15 Q3' 15 Q4' 15
Underwriting profitability ($ millions)
Underwriting
profit
Expenses
Losses on claims
Loss ratio 26% 22% 17% 21% 23%
Expense ratio 21% 17% 20% 19% 18%
Combined
ratio 47% 39% 37% 40% 41%
New
delinquencies
net of cures 489 432 319 440 487
Highlights
• 2015 loss ratio of 21% at lower
end of stated range of 20 to 30%
• New delinquencies net of cures
modestly higher, primarily due to
Quebec and Alberta
• Expense ratio of 18% in line with
management expectations
• Loss mitigation programs continue
to be effective
Premiums earned $143 $151 $143 $144 $148
2016 ANNUAL LOSS RATIO ESTIMATED RANGE: 25% TO 40%
15 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Fed. Agency / NHA MBS
Federal bonds
Preferred shares
Emerging markets debt2
Investment grade
corporates3
Provincials
5%
29% 17%
33%
5%
7%
4%
$4,000
4Q14 4Q15
Investments contribute steady income
$5.9B portfolio1
Duration: 3.7 years1
Book yield: 3.1%1
Growth in invested assets (C$ millions)
Note: Company sources.
1. Represents market value. Book yield represents pre-tax equivalent book yield after dividend gross-up of portfolio (as at Dec. 31, 2015).
2. 98% investment grade. 3. Market value, includes CLOs.
Total Invested Assets
Cash
2015 highlights
89% of portfolio is high-quality fixed
income
Limited energy exposure
6% of portfolio
2016 outlook
Impact of low rate environment
should be largely offset by growth in
invested assets
Investment Income ($ millions)
$172 $165
$6 $8
$22 $32
2014 2015
$195 $201
Net Investment Gains
Dividends
Interest
$5,443
$474
or 9%
$5,917
16 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Capital management
INTEND TO OPERATE MODESTLY ABOVE THE 220% MCT HOLDING TARGET IN 2016
Capital required at 220% MCT ($ millions)1 Transactional new insurance written ($ billions)
$3,159 $3,329
$3,432
$38
$116
$200
2013 Jan. 1/15 4Q15
Holdco cash2 $85M $143M $121M
MCT ratio 223% 228% 233%
$3,197
$3,632
+$248M
+$187M
Flexibility Efficiency
Strength
Note: Company sources.
1. MCT denotes ratio for operating insurance company. 4Q15 MCT based on company estimates.
2. Represents capital in addition to capital in operating insurance company.
$19.5 $22.1
$25.2
2013 2014 2015
+$2.6B +$3.1B Excess
capital over 220%
Capital at 220%
2016 outlook
Maintain holdco cash and liquid securities above
$100 million
New capital test under development for 2017 will be more risk
sensitive and will include additional capital for new business if
regional home price to income threshold is exceeded
$3,445
(pro-forma)
17 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
Key takeaways
Proven business model has positioned
MIC for future
performance
Market share retention
Navigating 2016 with a keen
focus on risk management
Proactive loss mitigation
programs
Investing in our customer
experience strategy
18 Genworth MI Canada Inc. Q4 2015 Results
[email protected] investor.genworthmicanada.ca
Investor Relations
Jonathan A. Pinto, MBA, LL.M
Vice President, Investor Relations
[email protected] 905.287.5482