Fourth Quarter 2008 - Turnaround Management Association › cmaextras › 2009_01_27vogel.pdf ·...
Transcript of Fourth Quarter 2008 - Turnaround Management Association › cmaextras › 2009_01_27vogel.pdf ·...
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Metro Phoenix Market Overview
Fourth Quarter 2008
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LAN
D
Who We Are A
DV
ISO
• Founded in 1987 in Scottsdale, Arizona
• Exclusive focus on land brokerage and its relative product types• Investment land, platted and finished lots, commercial/industrial
Organization
Core
ORS O
RGA
Investment land, platted and finished lots, commercial/industrial and master planned land
• Current regional office locations: Scottsdale, Tucson, Northern Arizona, Denver, Austin, Dallas, Houston and Orlando
Competencies
Market AN
IZATIO
• Future target market expansion includes: Sacramento, Inland Empire, San Antonio, Atlanta, Raleigh Durham and Jacksonville
• Grown to 70 employees: 38 agents 9 information/GIS
Coverage
ON• Grown to 70 employees: 38 agents, 9 information/GIS
specialists and 23 support specialists including marketing, escrow, and financial operations
Cl d $5 3 billi i l d t ti
Personnel
• Closed over $5.3 billion in land transactions• Currently have over $3.8 billion in exclusive listings• Unparalleled database containing nearly 300,000 property
ownersEstablished relationships ith the largest and most respected
Performance• Established relationships with the largest and most respected
real estate investment and development companies in the country
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LAN
D
Where We Are and Where We’re Going A
DV
ISOORS O
RGAA
NIZA
TIOON
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PopulationPopulationEmployment
P it A ti itPermit ActivityResale
New Home PricingInventoryInventory
Regional Growth
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Population
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LAN
D
Projected Population Growth 2000 - 2030 A
DV
ISOTOP 10 MOST POPULATED STATES IN 2030 ORS O
RGA
RANK STATE 2000 POPULATION
2030 POPULATION
1 California 33,871,648 46,444,8612 Texas 20,851,820 33,317,744 A
NIZA
TIO
2 Texas 20,851,820 33,317,744 3 Florida 15,982,378 28,685,769 4 New York 18,976,457 19,477,429 5 Illinois 12,419,293 13,432,892 6 Pennsylvania 12 281 054 12 768 184
FASTEST GROWING STATES
ON6 Pennsylvania 12,281,054 12,768,184
7 North Carolina 8,049,313 12,227,739 8 Georgia 8,186,453 12,017,838 9 Ohio 11,353,140 11,550,528
STATE % GROWTH
Nevada 114%Arizona 109%Florida 80%
10 Arizona 5,130,632 10,712,397 28 Nevada 1,998,257 4,282,102
Florida 80%Texas 60%Utah 56%
United States 29%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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LAN
D
Annual Population Growth Distribution 2000 - 2008 A
DV
ISO
Balance of State18.8%
ORS O
RGA
Tucson MSA15.3%
AN
IZATIOO
N
Phoenix-Mesa MSAMSA
65.9%
Source: Arizona Department of Commerce, 2008
Phoenix-Mesa MSA Tucson MSA Balance of State
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LAN
D
Metro Phoenix Projected Population Growth5.00%6,000,000 A
DV
ISO
3 2%
4.0%4 00%
4.50%
5,000,000 ORS O
RGA
144 020152,745
168,240109,017
66,987 51,752 59,687139,751
179,609
3 9% 3.2% 3.2%
4.0%4.1%
4.3% 2.7% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4%3.2%
3.50%
4.00%
4,000,000
AN
IZATIO
127,044108,568
110,952144,0203.9%
2.50%
3.00%
3,000,000
ON
1.50%
2.00%
2,000,000
78,9
20
87,4
88
98,4
40
42,4
60
95,2
05
63,4
45
72,4
62
39,4
49
91,2
01
50,8
88
90,6
39
70,2
48 0.50%
1.00%
1,000,000
Source: Arizona Department of Commerce, 2008
3,37
3,48
3,59
3,74
3,89
4,06
4,17
4,23
4,29
4,35
4,49
4,67
0.00%02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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Employment
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LAN
D
Arizona’s Top 50 Largest Employers 1 - 25 A
DV
ISO
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 31,785
Banner Health 22,152
JPMorgan Chase & Co. 9,200
McDonald's Corp. 9,050
ORS O
RGA
Apollo Group Inc. 14,783
Wells Fargo & Co. 14,000Honeywell International 12 700
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. 8,066
American Express Co. 7,500
AN
IZATIO
Honeywell International Inc. 12,700
Raytheon Co. 11,695
Kroger Co. 11,281
Target Corp. 7,373
Pinnacle West Capital Corp. 7,200
Bank of America Corp. 7,000 ON
Home Depot Inc. 11,000
Bashas' Supermarkets 10,753
Safeway Inc. 10,073
Scottsdale Healthcare 6,700
Walgreen Co. 6,663
Catholic Healthcare West 6,191Safeway Inc. 10,073
US Airways 10,021
Intel Corp. 10,000
Catholic Healthcare West 6,191
Circle K 5,375
CVS Caremark Corp. 5,170
Source: Arizona Republic, 2008
Carondelet Health Network 4,917
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LAN
D
Arizona’s Top 50 Largest Employers 26 - 50 A
DV
ISO
IBM Corp. 3,600
Starbucks Corp. 3,450
Salt River Project 4,889
Marriott International 4,588 ORS O
RGA
Cox Communications Inc. 3,416
University Medical Center 3,226
Dillard's Inc. 3,200
United Parcel Service 4,582
Albertsons Inc. 4,500
The Boeing Co. 4,500 AN
IZATIO
Dillard s Inc. 3,200
John C. Lincoln Health Network 3,135
Costco Wholesale 3,119
TMC H lthC 3 038
The Boeing Co. 4,500
Mayo Foundation 4,241
Qwest Communications Inc. 4,241
St d H t l & R t 4 181
ONTMC HealthCare 3,038
General Dynamics C4 Systems. 3,000
Gannett Co., Inc. 2,933
Starwood Hotels & Resorts 4,181
Southwest Airlines Co. 4,120
FedEx Corp. 3,910
USAA 2,930
Freescale Semiconductor Inc. 2,900
Abrazo Health Care 2,862
Lowe's Companies Inc. 3,900
Sun Health Corp. 3,837
Source: Arizona Republic, 2008
,
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LAN
D
Metro Phoenix Annual Employment A
DV
ISOYear Employment Change % Change ORS O
RGA
2000 1,582,2002001 1,566,500 -15,700 -1.0%
2002 1 587 200 20 700 1 3% AN
IZATIO
2002 1,587,200 20,700 1.3%
2003 1,626,400 39,200 2.4%2004 1,714,500 88,100 5.1% O
N2005 1,829,600 115,100 6.2%2006 1,881,900 52,300 2.7%2007 1 928 000 46 100 2 3%2007 1,928,000 46,100 2.3%2008 1,841,200 -54,800 -4.7%
Source: Arizona Department of Commerce, 2008 (Total Nonfarm Employment)
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Permit Activity
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LAN
D Past 12 Months through December 31, 2008
Top 10 Builder Market ShareBUILDER PERMITSPULTE HOMES 2521
AD
VISO
STANDARD PACIFIC
PULTE HOMES 2521D R HORTON COMBINED 2026SHEA HOMES 781TAYLOR MORRISON 696CENTEX HOMES 423MERITAGE HOMES 406
ORS O
RGARICHMOND AMERICAN,
2 90%
LENNAR HOMES, 2.80%
STANDARD PACIFIC HOMES, 2.60%
K HOVNANIAN, 2.50% MERITAGE HOMES 406RICHMOND AMERICAN 369LENNAR HOMES 348STANDARD PACIFIC HOMES 330K HOVNANIAN 318
AN
IZATIOPULTE HOMES, 20.00%
MERITAGE HOMES, 3.20%
2.90%
ON
CENTEX HOMES, 3.40%
D R HORTON COMBINED, 16.10%
TAYLOR MORRISON, 5.50%
Source: RL Brown
SHEA HOMES, 6.20%
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LAN
D
Top 11-20 Builder Market SharePast 12 Months through December 31, 2008 BUILDER PERMITS
KB HOME 279 AD
VISO
KB HOME 279BEAZER HOMES 236WOODSIDE HOMES 189MARACAY HOMES 188ENGLE HOMES 169WILLIAM LYON HOMES 158
ORS O
RGAKB HOME, 2.20%
ROBSON COMMUNITIES, 1.00%
T.W. LEWIS COMPANY, 0.90%
ASHTON WOODS HOMES 156BLANDFORD HOMES 155ROBSON COMMUNITIES 127T.W. LEWIS COMPANY 113
AN
IZATIO
BLANDFORD HOMES, 1.20%
ONBEAZER HOMES, 1.90%ASHTON WOODS HOMES,
1.20%
WILLIAM LYON HOMES, 1.30%
Source: RL Brown
WOODSIDE HOMES, 1.50%MARACAY HOMES,
1.50%
ENGLE HOMES, 1.30%
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LAN
D
Permit History: Historical and Projected as of Dec 2008 A
DV
ISO
6
0.8
1
60,000
70,000
ORS O
RGA28
557
,360 60
,92 6
0.4
0.6
50,000
,
AN
IZATIO
3 3 ,210 36
,562
38,4
4834
,232 37
,170 40,0
0247
, 2
38,7
5372
38,0
00
38.0%
37.7%
0
0.2
30,000
40,000
ON
3 3 3321
,449
21,1
1523
,052
23,7
5818
,424
336
30 19,4
49 23,2
15 28,2
2428
,583
29,5
13 32, 3
31,1
20,0
0027
,600
-59.6%
81.8%
-0.4
-0.2
20,000
12,9
8312
,743
13,8
3 115
,312
,135
11,3
04 14,3
3
12,5
8211
,000 -12.6%
-0.8
-0.6
0
10,000
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Source: RL Brown Housing Reports, Housing Market Forecast 2009-2012
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
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LAN
D 70 000
Metro Phoenix Building Permit Trends as of Dec 2008 A
DV
ISO60,000
70,000
2008 Population:4 239 449
ORS O
RGA
50,000
4,239,449
OVERPRODUCTION
UNDERPRODUCTION
AN
IZATIO30,000
40,000 1994 Population:2,488,125
ON
20,000
0
10,000
Source: RL Brown, Housing Forecast (Compiled By: Land Advisors)
01994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Projected
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LAN
D
Phoenix MSA Population and Permits as of Dec 2008 A
DV
ISO
Permits4,500,000
5,000,000
60,000
70,000
ORS O
RGAts
Po
3,500,000
4,000,000
50,000
AN
IZATIO
Perm
it pulation
2,500,000
3,000,000
30,000
40,000
ON
1 000 000
1,500,000
2,000,000
20,000
,
0
500,000
1,000,000
0
10,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau & RL Brown Housing Reports
00
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
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2005: 12,188
Metro Phoenix Single Family Residential Permits as of Dec 2008
2005: 8 1542005: 12,1882006: 7,4502007: 6,4722008: 2,628 (-59.4%)
2005: 8,1542006: 6,4242007: 4,5242008: 1,222 (-72.9%)
2005: 16,2242006: 11,1432007: 10 255
2005: 9,7492006: 9 2882007: 10,255
2008: 2,900 (-71.7%)2006: 9,2882007: 8,7822008: 3,135 (-64.3%)
2005: 17,2452006: 9,7522007: 6,3432008: 2,697 (-57.5%)
Source: RL Brown (Compiled By: Land Advisors)
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LAN
D
Permits vs. MLS ListingsJanuary 2003 through November 2008 A
DV
ISO
6,000
7,000
50 000
60,000
ORS O
RGA4 000
5,00040,000
50,000
AN
IZATIO
3,000
4,000
20 000
30,000
ON
1,000
2,000
10,000
20,000
00
Jan-
03M
ar-0
3M
ay-0
3Ju
l-03
Sep-
03N
ov-0
3Ja
n-04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4Se
p-04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05M
ar-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
l-05
Sep-
05N
ov-0
5Ja
n-06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6Se
p-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07M
ar-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
l-07
Sep-
07N
ov-0
7Ja
n-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8Se
p-08
Nov
-08
Source: MLS / RL Brown (compiled by Land Advisors)
Total Listings Permits
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Resale
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LAN
D MLS Listing, Sales & Days on Market Figures
January 2003 December 2008
MLS Resale Figures
3 AD
VISO
January 2003 – December 2008
140
16060,000 52,0
03
ORS O
RGA M
arke
t
100
120
40,000
50,000
AN
IZATIO
vera
ge D
ays o
n
60
8030,000
Equilibrium at 35,000
ONA
v
20
40
10,000
20,000
00
Jan-
03M
ar-0
3M
ay-0
3Ju
l-03
Sep-
03N
ov-0
3Ja
n-04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4Se
p-04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05M
ar-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
l-05
Sep-
05N
ov-0
5Ja
n-06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6Se
p-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07M
ar-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
l-07
Sep-
07N
ov-0
7Ja
n-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8Se
p-08
Nov
-08
Dec-
08
Source: MLS (compiled by Land Advisors)
M M M M M M
Total Listings Total Sales DOM
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LAN
D Monthly foreclosures since the surge began 18 months ago:
Month by Month Foreclosures A
DV
ISO
4,013
4,378
4,587
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
ORS O
RGA2,969
3,402
3,717
4,104
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
200833,836 thru Oct. ‘08 A
NIZA
TIO1,617
2,052
2,249
2,365
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
ON
806
1,093
936
1,344
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
553
475
579
676
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Source: Arizona Republic 11.30.08, The Information Market
- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
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LAN
D
Equity Levels by State A
DV
ISO
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Nevada
Michigan
ORS O
RGA
g
Arizona
Florida
Georgia AN
IZATIO
g
California
Ohio
Arkansas ON
Iowa
Colorado
New … Neg EquityTexas
Tennessee
Nebraska
Neg EquityNear Neg Equity
Source: First American CoreLogic, Sept 2008
Virginia
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New Home Pricing
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LAN
D
New Home Sales Price Activity 3Q 2008 A
DV
ISO
Median Income & Sales Price
$864,758
$900,000
$1,000,000
ORS O
RGA
$ ,
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
SALES PRICEINCOME A
NIZA
TIO$443,543$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
ON
$242,097
$323,874
$227,980$200,000
$300,000
$59,100 $69,400 $59,200 $60,100 $62,200
$0
$100,000
PHOENIX-MESA-SCOTTSDALE AZ
SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD-SAN
RIVERSIDE-SAN BERNARDINO-
LAS VEGAS-PARADISE NV
DALLAS-FORT WORTH-ARLINGTON
Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
SCOTTSDALE, AZ CARLSBAD-SAN MARCO, CA
BERNARDINO-ONTARIO, CA
PARADISE, NV WORTH-ARLINGTON, TX
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LAN
D
Median New Home Sale PriceHistorical and Projected for Phoenix MSA A
DV
ISO
22%
40%$350,000
ORS O
RGA79
5
$306
,355
97 62 ,636
29%-21%
3%5%
5%5%
20%
30%
$250,000
$300,000
AN
IZATIO
0 0 240
$195
,000
$251
, 7
$242
,09
$214
,397
$220
,828
$231
,869
$243
,46
$255
4% 2% 5% 3% 4% 2%8%
13%
-11% 3%
0%
10%
$150 000
$200,000
ON
03,9
50
05,8
50
09,3
00
07,5
00
08,8
00
112,
500
$124
,475
$127
,600
$130
,750
$136
,130
$139
,070
$146
,710
$150
,770
$156
,56 0
$159
,990
$173
, $
2% 3% -2% 1% 3%11% 3% 2% 4% 2%
-10%
0%
$100,000
$150,000
$10
$10
$1 $10
$1 $ 1
-30%
-20%
$0
$50,000
Source: ASU Dept. of Realty Studies, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Land Advisors Organization projection
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LAN
D
Average Annual Change in Home Pricing 1995 - 2008 A
DV
ISO
$275 000
$300,000
$325,000Resale HomesNew Homes O
RS ORG
A
$214,397$225,000
$250,000
$275,000
AN
IZATIO
$162,000
$150,000
$175,000
$200,000
ON
$75,000
$100,000
$125,000
$0
$25,000
$50,000
NOTE PRICING TREND LINE EXCLUDES 2004 through 2006
Source: Hanley Wood/ASU Research Center
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Inventory
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LAN
D
Total Vacant Lots: 62,400 as of Dec 2008 A
DV
ISO4,112 vacant lots8,308 vacant lots
ORS O
RGA19 340 t l t A
NIZA
TIO
14,812 vacant lots19,340 vacant lots
ON
7,174 vacant lots
8,633 vacant lots
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LAN
D
Total Vacant Lots (Net of Active Adult, Attached <30 total lots, >100’): 42,700 lots A
DV
ISO778 vacant lots5,812 vacant lots
ORS O
RGA14 866 t l t A
NIZA
TIO
8,511 vacant lots14,866 vacant lots
ON
5,582 vacant lots
7,232 vacant lots
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LAN
D
Vacant Lot Market Share by Owner A
DV
ISOORS O
RGA
Investors9,60023%Public/Top 10/
Start-up Builders AN
IZATIO
Private Builders/Banks/
17,15040%
ONDevelopers
15,90037%
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LAN
D 1 604
Vacant Lots by Submarket: 42,700 A
DV
ISO
1,604
1,2302,978 423
355
ORS O
RGA
5,8266,789
AN
IZATIO
2,251 4,916 2,957
638
ON761
2,4052,416
2,313
3,118
1,801Public Top 10/Start-up Builders
Private Builders//Banks/DevelopersInvestors
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LAN
D
Comparable Price/Finished Front Foot A
DV
ISO$650 ORS O
RGA$250 $475
$450$400
AN
IZATIO
$250
$550 $740
$400
ON
$418
$375
$350
$100
$350
$400
$250$400
$350$195
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LAN
D
Active Subdivisions A
DV
ISOORS O
RGAA
NIZA
TIOON
685 active subdivisions685 active subdivisions685 active subdivisions685 active subdivisions56,800 vacant lots56,800 vacant lots25,438 1225,438 12--month closingsmonth closings
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LAN
D
Proposed Subdivisions A
DV
ISOORS O
RGAA
NIZA
TIOON
Over 265,000 PreOver 265,000 Pre--Final Final Platted Lots In Process Platted Lots In Process
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Regional Growth
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LAN
D
Historical Transactions2004 2005 2006 2007 Thru 3Q08 A
DV
ISO
ApartmentTransactions 389 464 332 218 56 Price Per Unit 57,480 67,830 83,930 83,573 85,943
Total Number of Units 37,800 72,153 51,442 41,585 5,805Sales Volume 2 1B 4 9B 4 3B 3 4B 498 9M
ORS O
RGA
Sales Volume 2.1B 4.9B 4.3B 3.4B 498.9M
RetailTransactions 205 220 206 116 43Price Per SF 140 147 137 143 190
8 0 3 9 6 69
AN
IZATIO
Total SF 7.8M 10.3M 9.6M 5.7M 1.69M Sales Volume 1.1B 1.5B 1.3B 825M 320.6M
OfficeTransactions 342 338 291 227 91 O
NPrice Per SF 115 157 174 197 211Total Number of Units/SF 13.2M 16.1M 16.0M 11.8M 3M
Sales Volume 1.5B 2.5B 2.8B 2.3B 640.8M
Industrial
h
IndustrialTransactions 306 314 309 357 136 Price Per SF 52 69 81 91 75
Total SF 19.7M 16.9M 16.5M 19.0M 10.2M Sales Volume 1.0B 1.1B 1.3B 1.7B 768.5M
Sour
ce: K
amm
rath
TotalsTransactions 1,242 1,336 1,138 918 326Sales Volume 5.8B 10.1B 9.8B 8.3B 2.2B
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LAN
D
Metro Phoenix Market Share4Q2008 A
DV
ISOORS O
RGA
Rentable Area Vacancy Rate
Net Absorption Sq Ft
Sq Ft Per Capita
Additional Sq Ft Needed by 2020
Industrial 264.9M 12.5% 833,623 66 119.2M AN
IZATIO
Retail 143.7M 7.5% 232,798 36 64.6M
Office 72.4M 19.1% 548,334 18 32.6M ON,
216.4M
In 12 years, we will need an additional 16,561 acres of land to meet the need if we grow by 33%.
Source: CBRE
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LAN
D
Land Transactions2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (as of 12/08) A
DV
ISO
( )COMMERCIAL
Transactions 358 608 465 595 77
Sales Volume 911.4M 1.96B 1.64B 2.2B 397.2M ORS O
RGA
Acres 3,757 7,506 5,523 5,887 1,231
INDUSTRIAL
Transactions 164 167 160 196 40 AN
IZATIO
Sales Volume 374.6M 614.9M 687M 734M 206.2M
Acres 5,438 6.163 5,029 5,370 1,143
ONRESIDENTIAL
Transactions 1,223 1,369 799 618 209
Sales Volume 4.2B 7.7B 4.6B 2.4B 765.5M
Acres 188 944 218 809 85 053 48 660 5 348Acres 188,944 218,809 85,053 48,660 5,348
TOTALS
Transactions 1,745 2,144 1,424 1,409 326
Source: CoStar Comps
Sales Volume 5.5B 10.3B 6.9B 5.4B 1.4B
Acres 198,139 232,477 95,605 59,971 15,660
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