Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering...
Transcript of Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering...
Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector
Nicole du Plooy
Supervisors: Alan BrentImke de KockJosephine MusangoLouwrence Erasmus
The Research Process
Problem Definition Literature Survey System Dynamics Modelling Scenario Development
Understand the South African Context and
define theResearch Question
Conduct a Literature Search on Scientific
Database, attend Lectures and Search
Campus Library
Understand Real Life Context and determine
Model Boundaries, Develop Causal Loop
Diagram and Construct Dynamic Model
Perform Various Scenario Interventions
and Test Possible Futures
The Research Process
Problem Definition Literature Survey System Dynamics Modelling Scenario Development
Understand the South African Context and
define theResearch Question
Conduct a Literature Search on Scientific
Database, attend Lectures and Search
Campus Library
Understand Real Life Context and determine
Model Boundaries, Develop Causal Loop
Diagram and Construct Dynamic Model
Perform Various Scenario Interventions
and Test Possible Futures
South Africa’s Key Policies
Is South Africa’s Fostering a Sustainable Energy Transition?
The Research Process
Problem Definition Literature Survey System Dynamics Modelling Scenario Development
Understand the South African Context and
define theResearch Question
Conduct a Literature Search, Define a Set of Criteria for Electricity
Sector’s SET
Understand Real Life Context and determine
Model Boundaries, Develop Causal Loop
Diagram and Construct Dynamic Model
Perform Various Scenario Interventions
and Test Possible Futures
Literature Survey
Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales,
Grubler (2012)
Socio-Technical Perspective
Insight 1: The importance of energy end-use in driving energy transitions
Insight 2: Rates of change are slow, but not always
Insight 3: There are distinct patterns in the successful scaling up of technology systems
Energy and the Economy: Five Propositions, Heun (2016)
1. Energy and the Economy are Linked
2. The Fundamentals of Energy Supply/Demand and Prices are different now
3. Society uses the easily accessible resources first
4. They Dynamics of Energy and the Economy Nexus are an Interdisciplinary Grand Challenge
5. Unstable Economies are deterrent for sustainable transition investment
A Framework for defining Sustainable Energy Transitions:
Principles, Dynamics and Implications, Csala and Sgouridis
(2014)
1. Rate of Emissions < Ecosystems Carrying Capacity
2. Renewable Energy Generation < Ecosystems Carrying Capacity
3. Energy Demands are Adequately Satisfied
4. Sufficient Investment in Renewable Energy Before Fossil Fuel Depletion
5. Future Consumption is coupled to Availability of Energy in the Future
• Economic competitiveness• Supply Security and Generation• Innovation and Technology• Politics and Public Acceptance
• Energy Efficiency• Economic Competitiveness• Supply Security and Generation
• Energy Efficiency• CO2 Emission Reduction• Economic Competitiveness• Supply Security and Generation
The Future of Energy Use, O’Keefe et al. (2010)
Bridging the Energy Gap through Technology Transfer
Energy Poverty should be approached via a bottom up approach
Suggests Features for Sustainable Energy Systems : Appropriate, Exploits Indigenous Renewable Energy Resources, Capacity Enhancing, Adaptable, Easy to Repair and Maintain, Upgradeable
A participatory multi-criteria approach for power generation
and transmission planning, Bertschand Fichtner (2015)
Socio-political Perspective
Involvement of end consumers which may become producers in the future.
Suggests a Multi-Criteria Approach which considers:
Public Acceptance
Economic Competitiveness
Environmental Sustainability
Security of Supply
Energy, Economic Growth and Environmental Sustainability: Five
Propositions, Sorrell (2010)
1. Energy Efficiency has rebound effects on energy consumption and economic growth
2. Energy has improved productivity and economic growth
3. Sustainability requires both improved efficiency and a principle of ―sufficiency.
4. Sustainability cannot be achieved with increased economic growth in rich countries
5. A zero-growth economy is incompatible with a fractional reserve banking system.
• Supply Security and Generation• Resilience• Innovation and Technology
• CO2 Emission Reduction• Economic Competitiveness• Supply Security and Generation• Politics and Public Acceptance
• Energy Efficiency• Economic Competitiveness
Literature Survey
Measures of Success for South Africa’s Electricity Sector SET
1 Energy Efficiency
2 Emission Reduction
3 Economic Competitiveness
4 Supply Security and Generation
5 Resilience
6 Innovation and Technology
7 Politics and Public Acceptance
The Research Process
Problem Definition Literature Survey System Dynamics Modelling Scenario Development
Understand the South African Context and
define theResearch Question
Conduct a Literature Search on Scientific
Database, attend Lectures and Search
Campus Library
Understand Real Life Context and determine
Model Boundaries, Develop Causal Loop
Diagram and Construct Dynamic Model
Perform Various Scenario Interventions
and Test Possible Futures
What is System Dynamics?The Big Picture
System Dynamics Modelling is often used to generate possible futures and predict a system’slikely evolution under varying circumstances; with the aim of initiating discussions betweenvarying audiences from technical and non-technical backgrounds.
PlannedBio-FuelCapacity
Bio-FuelCapacity Under
Construction
Bio-FuelOperatingCapacity
DecommissionedBio-FuelCapacityBio-Fuel Project
InitialisationBio-Fuel Construction
InitializationBio-Fuel PlantCommissioning
Bio-Fuel CapacityDecommissioning
Bio-FuelDegradation
Bio-FuelDegradation Factor
Average Bio-FuelPlant Life
Future Bio-FuelCapacity
Current Bio-FuelCapacity
Total Bio-FuelCapacity
Average Bio-FuelProject Planning Delay
Average Bio-Fuel PlantConstruction DelayAverage Bio-Fuel
Project Start Delay
Bio-Fuel ProjectLead Time
Initial PlannedBio-Fuel Capacity
Initial Bio-Fuel Capacityunder Construction
Inital Bio-FuelOperating Capacity
Initial Bio-FuelDecommissioned
Bio-Fuel ScenarioChoice
Bio-Fuel IRP
Bio-Fuel CapacityFactor
<Time>
Total ElectricityGenerated from
Bio-Fuel <MW to MWhConversion>
Scenario Bio-Fuel
<Required NewBio-Fuel>
<SWITCH>
ElectricityDemand
Demand/SupplyGap
+
ElectricityImports
ElectricityExports
+
Available GenerationCapacity
Capacity Factor
-Generation CapacityUnder Construction
Required GenerationCapacity
+
+
B1ElectricityGeneration
DecommissioningRate
+
-
B2Capacity
Retirement
Electricity SectorCO2 Emissions
Environmental C02Carrying Capacity
Pressure from Actorsfor Sustainability
-
-
Sustainable ElectricityGeneration Technology
Availibilty +
Learning Rates
+
R1EmmissionReduction
GDP
+
ElectricityPrice
Population
+-
Electricity SectorEmployment
+ +
Electricty SectorWater Usage
WaterAvailablity
-
-
R2 WaterUsage
Unemployment- -
WeakGovernance
-
Poor IndustryPerformance
-
R3 JobCreation
Likelihood ofLoadshedding Events
Actual Investment intoPlanned Generation
Mix
++
+Total Available
Electricity Capacity +
-
+
Actual ElectricityConsumption
-+
+
+
+
Total Electricity Generated by System900 M
675 M
450 M
225 M
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
h*M
W
Total Electricity Generated by System : majority fossil fuels
Total Electricity Sector Employment200 M
167.5 M
135 M
102.5 M
70 M2010 2022 2034 2046
Time (Year)
Job
Total Electricity Sector Employment : majority fossil fuels
Total
Total Fresh
Demand Supply Gap Ratio.9
.8
.7
.6
.52010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
Dm
nl
Demand Supply Gap Ratio : majority fossil fuels
Electricity to be Added to Mix100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
02010 2022 2034 2046
Time (Year)
h*G
W/Y
ear
Electricity to be Added to Mix : majority fossil fuels
System Dynamics – Causal Loop Diagram
ElectricityDemand
Demand/SupplyGap
+
ElectricityImports
ElectricityExports
+
Available GenerationCapacity
Capacity Factor
-Generation CapacityUnder Construction
Required GenerationCapacity
+
+
B1ElectricityGeneration
DecommissioningRate
+
-
B2Capacity
Retirement
Electricity SectorCO2 Emissions
Environmental C02Carrying Capacity
Pressure from Actorsfor Sustainability
-
-
Sustainable ElectricityGeneration Technology
Availibilty +
Learning Rates
+
R1EmmissionReduction
GDP
+
ElectricityPrice
Population
+-
Electricity SectorEmployment
+ +
Electricty SectorWater Usage
WaterAvailablity
-
-
R2 WaterUsage
Unemployment- -
WeakGovernance
-
Poor IndustryPerformance
-
R3 JobCreation
Likelihood ofLoadshedding Events
Actual Investment intoPlanned Generation
Mix
++
+Total Available
Electricity Capacity +
-
+
Actual ElectricityConsumption
-+
+
+
+
How does it work?
<Total ElectricityGenerated from
Bio-Fuel>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Coal>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Gas>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Hydro>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Nuclear>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from SolarPV>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Wind>
Total ElectricityGenerated by System
NET ElectricityGeneration
Transmission andDistribution Loss Factor
<South AfricanElectricity Demand>
MWh to GWhconversion
NET ImportedElectricity
NET ElectricitySupply
Electricity Exports
NET ElectricityDemand
SWITCH
Total ElectricityGeneration Blackouts
Year Step Demand SupplyGap Ratio
Demand Supply GapEffect Table
Effect of Demand SupplyGap on Required Electricity
Required NewElectricity
Electricity to beAdded to Mix
Blackouts due toRenewable Unavailability
Demand SupplyGap
<Electricity Lost due toSolar PV Downtime>
Sum of Blackouts
<Year Step>
<Electricity Lost due toSolar CSP Downtime>
<Electricity Lost due toWind Downtime>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Solar
CSP>
Driver: Satisfy Demand by adding New Capacity
How does it work?
<Total ElectricityGenerated from
Bio-Fuel>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Coal>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Gas>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Hydro>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Nuclear>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from SolarPV>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Wind>
Total ElectricityGenerated by System
NET ElectricityGeneration
Transmission andDistribution Loss Factor
<South AfricanElectricity Demand>
MWh to GWhconversion
NET ImportedElectricity
NET ElectricitySupply
Electricity Exports
NET ElectricityDemand
SWITCH
Total ElectricityGeneration Blackouts
Year Step Demand SupplyGap Ratio
Demand Supply GapEffect Table
Effect of Demand SupplyGap on Required Electricity
Required NewElectricity
Electricity to beAdded to Mix
Blackouts due toRenewable Unavailability
Demand SupplyGap
<Electricity Lost due toSolar PV Downtime>
Sum of Blackouts
<Year Step>
<Electricity Lost due toSolar CSP Downtime>
<Electricity Lost due toWind Downtime>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Solar
CSP>
New Coal SupplyFraction
New Hydro SupplyFraction
New Gas SupplyFraction
New NuclearSupply Fraction
New Wind SupplyFraction
New Solar PVSupply Fraction
Demand for NewHydro
Demand for NewGas
Demand for NewNuclear
Demand for NewWind
Demand for NewSolar PV
Demand for NewBio-Fuel
Demand for NewCoal
Required NewSolar PV
Required NewWind
Required NewNuclear
Required NewGas
Required NewHydroRequired New
Coal
Required NewBio-Fuel
<MW to MWhConversion>
<MW to MWhConversion>
<MW to MWhConversion>
<MW to MWhConversion>
<Coal CapacityFactor>
<Hydro CapacityFactor> <Bio-Fuel Capacity
Factor>
<Solar PVCapacityFactor>
<Wind CapacityFactor>
<Nuclear CapacityFactor><Gas Capacity
Factor>
Supply FractionTotal CHECK
New Bio-FuelSupply Fraction
<Electricity to beAdded to Mix>
Demand for NewSolar CSP
Required NewSolar CSP
New Solar CSPSupply Fraction
<Solar CSPCapacity Factor>
Input: Supply Fraction
Driver: Satisfy Demand by adding New Capacity
How does it work?
<Total ElectricityGenerated from
Bio-Fuel>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Coal>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Gas>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Hydro>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Nuclear>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from SolarPV>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Wind>
Total ElectricityGenerated by System
NET ElectricityGeneration
Transmission andDistribution Loss Factor
<South AfricanElectricity Demand>
MWh to GWhconversion
NET ImportedElectricity
NET ElectricitySupply
Electricity Exports
NET ElectricityDemand
SWITCH
Total ElectricityGeneration Blackouts
Year Step Demand SupplyGap Ratio
Demand Supply GapEffect Table
Effect of Demand SupplyGap on Required Electricity
Required NewElectricity
Electricity to beAdded to Mix
Blackouts due toRenewable Unavailability
Demand SupplyGap
<Electricity Lost due toSolar PV Downtime>
Sum of Blackouts
<Year Step>
<Electricity Lost due toSolar CSP Downtime>
<Electricity Lost due toWind Downtime>
<Total ElectricityGenerated from Solar
CSP>
New Coal SupplyFraction
New Hydro SupplyFraction
New Gas SupplyFraction
New NuclearSupply Fraction
New Wind SupplyFraction
New Solar PVSupply Fraction
Demand for NewHydro
Demand for NewGas
Demand for NewNuclear
Demand for NewWind
Demand for NewSolar PV
Demand for NewBio-Fuel
Demand for NewCoal
Required NewSolar PV
Required NewWind
Required NewNuclear
Required NewGas
Required NewHydroRequired New
Coal
Required NewBio-Fuel
<MW to MWhConversion>
<MW to MWhConversion>
<MW to MWhConversion>
<MW to MWhConversion>
<Coal CapacityFactor>
<Hydro CapacityFactor> <Bio-Fuel Capacity
Factor>
<Solar PVCapacityFactor>
<Wind CapacityFactor>
<Nuclear CapacityFactor><Gas Capacity
Factor>
Supply FractionTotal CHECK
New Bio-FuelSupply Fraction
<Electricity to beAdded to Mix>
Demand for NewSolar CSP
Required NewSolar CSP
New Solar CSPSupply Fraction
<Solar CSPCapacity Factor>
Input: Supply Fraction
Driver: Satisfy Demand by adding New Capacity
Output: Determine the impact on employment, water usage, land usage, cost and emissions…
Sustainable?
System Dynamics – Model OutputsAddressed Criteria Preliminary Model Outputs
CO2 Emission Reduction Emissions for CO2, NOx, SOx (kg/MWh)
Economic Competitiveness Unserved Energy (R/MWh)
Levelised Cost of Electricity (R/MWh)
Supply Security and Generation Demand Supply Ratio:
<1= Adequate Supply
>1 = Inadequate Supply
Blackouts (MWh/Year)
Resilience Operations and Maintenance Jobs (Jobs/Year)
Fuel Supply Jobs (Jobs/Year)
Manufacturing Jobs (Jobs/Year)
Construction Jobs (Jobs/Year)
Water Usage (L/MWh)
Land Usage (km2/MWh)
Politics and Public Acceptance Graphical output of IRP capacity specifications
The Process
Problem Definition Literature Survey System Dynamics Modelling Scenario Development
Understand the South African Context and
define theResearch Question
Conduct a Literature Search on Scientific
Database, attend Lectures and Search
Campus Library
Understand Real Life Context and determine
Model Boundaries, Develop Causal Loop
Diagram and Construct Dynamic Model
Perform Various Scenario Interventions
and Test Possible Futures
Scenario Breakdown
Scen
ario
Nam
e
Scen
ario
Cond
ition
s
Electricity Mix Percentage Split (%)
Technology Type
Coal
Nuc
lear
Gas
Win
d
Sola
rPV
Sola
rCSP
Hydr
o
Biof
uel
Business as UsualInput from IRP
2016 Input as specified in IRP2016 and inputted via lookup tables
Bulk Fossil Fuels 70:30 55 10 5 10 7 3 3 7
All New Fossil Fuels 100:0 60 30 10 0 0 0 0 0
Half and Half (50/50) 50:50 25 20 5 20 12 8 5 5
Bulk Renewables 30:70 15 10 5 30 20 10 5 5
All New Renewables 0:100 0 0 0 45 30 15 5 5
Next Step: Results Analysis
Total Electricity Generated by System1 B
500 M
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
MW
*h
Total Electricity Generated by System : half and half finalTotal Electricity Generated by System : BAU FinalTotal Electricity Generated by System : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal Electricity Generated by System : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal Electricity Generated by System : All New Fossil FuelsTotal Electricity Generated by System : All New Renewables
Total Electricity Sector Employment3 M
1.5 M
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
Job
Total Electricity Sector Employment : half and half finalTotal Electricity Sector Employment : BAU FinalTotal Electricity Sector Employment : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal Electricity Sector Employment : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal Electricity Sector Employment : All New Fossil FuelsTotal Electricity Sector Employment : All New Renewables
Total CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation600 B
300 B
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
kg
Total CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : half and half finalTotal CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : BAU FinalTotal CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : All New Fossil FuelsTotal CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : All New Renewables
Total Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation200 B
100 B
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
L
Total Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : half and half finalTotal Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : BAU FinalTotal Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : All New Fossil FuelsTotal Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : All New Renewables
Total NOx Emissions400 M
200 M
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
kg
Total NOx Emissions : half and half finalTotal NOx Emissions : BAU FinalTotal NOx Emissions : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal NOx Emissions : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal NOx Emissions : All New Fossil FuelsTotal NOx Emissions : All New Renewables
Total SOx Emissions300 M
150 M
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
kg
Total SOx Emissions : half and half finalTotal SOx Emissions : BAU FinalTotal SOx Emissions : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal SOx Emissions : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal SOx Emissions : All New Fossil FuelsTotal SOx Emissions : All New Renewables
South African Electricity Demand700,000
350,000
02010 2022 2034 2046
Time (Year)
h*G
W
South African Electricity Demand : half and half finalSouth African Electricity Demand : BAU FinalSouth African Electricity Demand : Bulk Renewables FinalSouth African Electricity Demand : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalSouth African Electricity Demand : All New Fossil FuelsSouth African Electricity Demand : All New Renewables
Total Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad40 B
20 B
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
Job
Total Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : half and half finalTotal Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : BAU FinalTotal Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : All New Fossil FuelsTotal Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : All New Renewables
Demand Supply Gap Ratio3
1.5
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
Dm
nl
Demand Supply Gap Ratio : half and half finalDemand Supply Gap Ratio : BAU FinalDemand Supply Gap Ratio : Bulk Renewables FinalDemand Supply Gap Ratio : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalDemand Supply Gap Ratio : All New Fossil FuelsDemand Supply Gap Ratio : All New Renewables
Electricity to be Added to Mix200,000
100,000
02010 2022 2034 2046
Time (Year)
h*G
W/Y
ear
Electricity to be Added to Mix : half and half finalElectricity to be Added to Mix : BAU FinalElectricity to be Added to Mix : Bulk Renewables FinalElectricity to be Added to Mix : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalElectricity to be Added to Mix : All New Fossil FuelsElectricity to be Added to Mix : All New Renewables
Total Land Area used for Electricity Sector30
15
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
km2
Total Land Area used for Electricity Sector : half and half finalTotal Land Area used for Electricity Sector : BAU FinalTotal Land Area used for Electricity Sector : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal Land Area used for Electricity Sector : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal Land Area used for Electricity Sector : All New Fossil FuelsTotal Land Area used for Electricity Sector : All New Renewables
Land Area for Fossil Fuel.5
.2485
-.0032010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
km2
Land Area for Fossil Fuel : half and half finalLand Area for Fossil Fuel : BAU FinalLand Area for Fossil Fuel : Bulk Renewables FinalLand Area for Fossil Fuel : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalLand Area for Fossil Fuel : All New Fossil FuelsLand Area for Fossil Fuel : All New Renewables
Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector3.0e-5
1.5e-5
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
Dm
nl
"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : half and half final"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : BAU Final"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : Bulk Renewables Final"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : Bulk Fossil Fuels Final"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : All New Fossil Fuels"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : All New Renewables
Land Area for Renewables30
15
02010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Time (Year)
km2
Land Area for Renewables : half and half finalLand Area for Renewables : BAU FinalLand Area for Renewables : Bulk Renewables FinalLand Area for Renewables : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalLand Area for Renewables : All New Fossil FuelsLand Area for Renewables : All New Renewables
The insights gained from the model could possibly be used to develop and implementmechanisms to collectively transform the electricity sector to an SET, as well as stimulate thenecessary discussions with stakeholders in various roles in government and private sector, inorder to facilitate the changes necessary to drive the transition and meet the set of criteria.
THANK YOU
Stock and Flow Diagram: Electricity Demand
Initial ElectricityDemand
Effect of Population onSouth Africa's Electricity
Demand
Average Elasticity of SouthAfrican Population on
Electricity Demand
PopulationBirths Deaths
Crude BirthRate
Crude DeathRate
Effect of GDP on SouthAfrica's Electricity Demand
GDPGDP Growth
GDP growth RateElasticity of GDP onElecticity Demand
Effect of Electricity Priceon Electricity Demand
Average Elasticity ofElectricity Price onElectricity Demand
Initial GDP
Initial Population
ElectricityPriceElectricity Price
Increase
Price Increase Rate
Initial ElectricityPrice
ElectricityDemandElectricity Demand
GrowthTotal Effect on
Electricity Demand
Relative RealPopulation
Relative Real GDP
Relative RealElectricity Price
South AfricanElectricity Demand
Total Population
<Year Step>
Stock and Flow Diagram: Capacity Generation
PlannedBio-FuelCapacity
Bio-FuelCapacity Under
Construction
Bio-FuelOperatingCapacity
DecommissionedBio-FuelCapacityBio-Fuel Project
InitialisationBio-Fuel Construction
InitializationBio-Fuel PlantCommissioning
Bio-Fuel CapacityDecommissioning
Bio-FuelDegradation
Bio-FuelDegradation Factor
Average Bio-FuelPlant Life
Future Bio-FuelCapacity
Current Bio-FuelCapacity
Total Bio-FuelCapacity
Average Bio-FuelProject Planning Delay
Average Bio-Fuel PlantConstruction DelayAverage Bio-Fuel
Project Start Delay
Bio-Fuel ProjectLead Time
Initial PlannedBio-Fuel Capacity
Initial Bio-Fuel Capacityunder Construction
Inital Bio-FuelOperating Capacity
Initial Bio-FuelDecommissioned
Bio-Fuel ScenarioChoice
Bio-Fuel IRP
Bio-Fuel CapacityFactor
<Time>
Total ElectricityGenerated from
Bio-Fuel <MW to MWhConversion>
Scenario Bio-Fuel
<Required NewBio-Fuel>
<SWITCH>