ForumonUnderstandingtheAleppoCrisis

AhmadEl-MuhammadyInternationalIslamicUniversityMalaysia

3February2017Organizedby:

InstituteofAdvancedIslamicStudies(IAIS),KualaLumpur,Malaysia

Syria:GeographyandPolitics

الجمھوریة العربیة السوریة

SyrianArabRepublicArea:185,180km2Population:17,064million(estimate2014)Multi-ethnicArab90.3%,Kurdish,Armenian,andother9.7%

Multi-religiousMuslim87%(official;includesSunni74%andAlawi,Ismaili,andShia13%),Christian10%(includesOrthodox,Uniate,andNestorian),Druze3%,Jewish(fewremaininginDamascusandAleppo)

Unitarystate

• Syriaisaunitarystate,butforadministrativepurposes,itisdividedinto14governorates(muhafazat/muhafazah)1. AlHasakah2. AlLadhiqiyah (Latakia)3. AlQunaytirah4. Ar Raqqah5. AsSuwayda’6. Dar'a7. Dayr az Zawr8. Dimashq (Damascus)

Unitarystate

9. Halab (Aleppo)10. Hamah11. Hims (Homs)12. Idlib13. RifDimashq (DamascusCountryside)14. Tartus

• Thegovenorates aredividedinto60distructs (manatiq),whicharefuther dividedintosubdistrict (nawahi/nahia)• Thenawahi containvillages,whicharethesmallestadministrativeunits.

Aleppo3.562millionDAMASCUS(capital)2.566millionHims (Homs)1.641millionHamah1.237millionLattakia 781,000

Fromgraffitionthewalltocivilwar

”it’syourturn,Doctor”

Thedetentionandprotest

Thereportof15schoolchildrenweredetainedandtorturedsurfaced.

Ledtomassiveprotest

Governmentrespondedviolentlyledtohundreddeaths.

Localuprisings

Regionalfactors

• ArabSpringsintheregionbroughtdownregimesinTunisia,Egypt,andLibya,anditspreadacrosstheregion.

• Al-QaedainIraq• CreationofJabhah al-Nusrah

• Sectarian• SunniversusSyiah

Foreignintervention

• Interventionofforeignpowers• Russia• Iran• Hezbollah• U.S.• Gulfstates

• Basyar Assad’sview:interventionintoasovereignnation,domesticaffairsoftheSyrians.Itisdomesticproblem.

• Iran’sview:dutytoprotectSyriangovernmentinthespiritoffaith,expansionofsphereofinfluence.

• Russia’sview:traditionalallyofSyria,theneedtoprotectclientstatefromfallingintoextremistgroupandpro-USgovernment.Russiaisanemergingpower.

• US’view:concernoftheriseofextremistgroupinSyriaandregion.Assadneedstogo.Butnodirectintervention,can’taffordtorepeatIraqandAfghanistan;employs“ContainmentStrategy”

• GulfStates:concernsoftheexpansionofIran’sinfluenceintheregion.FundingtheSunnigroupstofight.

• Insurgents’views:• IslamicStateofIraqandSyria(ISIS):protectingSunniinSyria,revengeagainstSyiah government,establish“trueIslamicState”

• Jabhah al-Nusra:al-Qaedaproxy.ProtectingSunni.Islamicstate.

• FreeSyrianArmy:overthrowtheregime.ConsideredbyUSasmoderate.

• QudsForce-Qasemm Soleimani:sectarianandpoliticalmotives.

• CivilwarinSyriaisnotastraightforwardcaseofconflictAversusB.• Multipleactors• Conflictinginterests• Complexfactors:cocktailsofpolitical,sectarian,religious,historicalelements.• Uniqueterrainsandlocality

Syria:theatreforgeopoliticalgame

• Veryunfortunatesituation.• Syriabecomethetheatreforgeopoliticalgameoftheregionalandworldpowers.• OrdinarySyriansarethebiggestvictims.• Caseinpoint:Aleppo.

WhereisAleppo?

Urbanwarfare

• CivilwarinAleppoisexampleofurbanwarfare(UW)• combatconductedin urban areassuchastownsandcities

• Urbanwarfareisfoughtdifferentlyfromtheopenfight(conventionalwarfare)atboththeoperationalandtacticallevel.• Complicatingfactorsin urbanwarfare includethepresenceofciviliansandthecomplexityofthe urban terrain.

ActorsonthegroundinAleppoSyriangovernment Rebels Kurdishforces

SyrianArabRepublic(Syrian Army)+RussianandIran

Alliedforces:-Liwa al-Quds-Hezbollah-PopularMobilizationForces-Liwa’Fatemiyoun-Liwa’Zaynabiyoun-BaathBridget-SyrianSocialNationalistParty(SSNP)-SyrianResistence

Coalitions:-FatahHalab-Jaysh Halab-ArmyofConquest-Ansar al-Shariah-FreeSyrianArmy

Units(16units)-Ahrar al-Sham-Jaysh al-Sham-FreeIdlib Army-Al-Tauhid Bridget-Fastaqim Union-Harat Nour al-Dinal-Zinki-ArmyofMujahiddin-SyrianTurksman Bridget-Liwa’al-Haqq-Al-Nusra Front-Jaysh al0Muhajirinwal Ansar-Harakat Fajr al-Shamal-Islamiyyah-Harakat Shamal-Islamiyah-TurkistanIslamicPartyinSyria

-People’sProtectionUnit(YPG)-Women’sProtectionUnit(YPJ)-ArmyofRevolutionaries

DefeatingenemiesinUWsettings

• Sendinggrouptroopsisrisky.• Grouptroopsexposedtoboobytraps,sniper,ambush,IEDattacks,etc.• Highcasualties,lesseffective.

• Aerialbombing• Surgicalstrike• Pulverizestrategy(BattleofGrozny,BattleofStalinigrad)

• Morethan300,000peoplehavebeenkilledand11millionothersdisplacedinalmostsixyearsofconflict.

• Theabovestrategycausedmassiveciviliancasualties.

Conclusion

• Politicalinterestatthecoreofstate’sforeignpolicy• Highcostofhumanlifeanddestructionofinfrastructure• SpillovereffectoftheconflictinSyriaandISIS• Theresidualeffectsoftheconflict:longtermeffects

Becarefulwhenyoufightamonster,youmayendupbeingoneofthem

-F.Nietzsche