The Electoral Sweet Spot: Low-Magnitude Proportional Electoral
Forum bersih2 3 ec malaysia electoral system 240412
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Transcript of Forum bersih2 3 ec malaysia electoral system 240412
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POLITICS
SOCIAL
ECONOMICS
FEAR!
SUPPRESSION SURVIVAL
IGNORANCE
GREED!
1Saman1Care: 10% of gross income
Areas where Parliament can interfere with or control the EC
EC supposed to manage elections independently
and fairly
Art. 32
Art. 44
Art 43
Art. 46Art.
45
Art. 113
Art. 114
Art. 40
Art. = Article
3
700 x
Public
Confidence
Management
of elections
Art. 113
Articles 46, 113 – 119:
46: Composition of House of
Representatives,
113: Conduct of elections,
114: Constitution of EC,
115: Assistance to EC,
116: Federal Constituencies,
117: State Constituencies,
118: Method of challenging
election,
118A: Method of questioning
election petition of no return,
119: Qualifications of electors,
Elections Act 1958 (Act 19): EA,
Election Offences Act 1954 (Act 5): EOA,
Election Commission Act 1957 (Act 31): ECA,
Elections (Conduct of Elections) Regulation
1981: COE,
Elections (Registration of Electors) Regulations
2002: ROE,
Elections (Postal Voting) Regulations 2003: PV,
Art. 114
4Control by Parliament
Members and staff
Federal Constitution Art. 114:
Chairman,
Deputy Chairman,
5 Members
Elections Act 1958 (Act 19): EA
S3. Appointment of officers:
Secretary, Deputies & Assistants,
State Election Officers & Deputies,
Returning officers & assistants,
Enforcement officers & assistants,
S8. Chief Registrar of Electors, Deputy
& assistants,
Adjudicating officers
Elections (Conduct of Elections) Regulation 1981: COE
R12. Presiding officers & assistants,
R12A. Other officers & staff
All ex-civil service!
All from the Federal Government!
Can they be independent? 5
Public
Confidence
Functions of Election Commission
• Redelineation of electoral boundaries,
• Registration of electors,
• Conduct of elections
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ELECTORAL CONCEPT
Database: Electoral Roll
Pre-polling: Inventory Control.
Check ballot papers
Polling: Paper flow management
Post-polling: Stock take & Closing
Statement. Count ballot
7
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Results of not paying attention:
Ruling Party enjoyed 2/3 majority for
more than 50 years.
Consequences: >700 Constitutional
amendments since 1957.
Compare with US, 236 years old: Only 27
Constitutional amendments.
Answer: You have to avoid a 2/3 majority
to prevent too much power in the hands
of the Ruling Party.
SYSTEMIC DISTORTION
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A. Gerrymandering,
B. Malapportionment,
C.Keep rural voters poor & isolated,
D.Abuse of GOVT Machinery!
21-06-1962, Constitutional Amendment:
Article 116: Safeguard to maintain voter difference to less than 15%
removed.
Clauses (3), (4) and (5): Clauses were repealed by Act 14/1962, sub-
section 22 (c) – before Malaysia was formed !
Source: (page 197): http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_protect/---
protrav/---ilo_aids/documents/legaldocument/wcms_125966.pdf
WHEN DID IT START ?
10
57.5% 57.5% 57.5%
50% 50% 50%
42.5% 42.5% 42.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
1 2 3 4 5
Upper Limit
National average
Before 21-06-1962: Largest seat size not more than 15% above national average while smallest seat not less than 15% below
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Four evenly matched districts Three seat advantage for Party 1
All districts show an even voting ratio for each party
3 districts vote 90% for Party 11 district votes 90% for Party 2
Party 1 Party 2SOURCE: http://www.comprofessor.com/2010/10/gerrymandering-through-corporate.html
Bukit
Badak
Padang
Rempit
Pulau
Giling
Kota
Tempurung
Bukit
Badak
Padang
Rempit
Pulau
Giling
Kota
Tempurung
13
Credit to:
Ng CN
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221
2008 Parliamentary Elections Results
Putrajaya
KaparNumber of voters
BN – 62 seats, 0.68M votes (28%
seats, 6.2% popular votes)
PR – 0 seats
BN – 112 seats, 2.06M votes (50.4%
seats, 18.9% popular votes)
PR – 27 seats
B. MALAPPORTIONMENT
Something is seriously wrong when a party secures 50.4%
of the seats with less than 19% of the popular vote!
14
Easy to threaten & bribe
In politics, nothing happens by accident!
Mini break: Environmental Disaster!
Kapit , Rejang River 2011
15
Use of Government machinery and control of
social, business and information networks to suppress the
people
With a 2/3 majority, Govt can increase
Sarawak seats to 50 and reduce Selangor
seats to 10. Will they do it?
Federal Constitution Article 46 sets the
Composition of the MP’s at 222 nos.
Amendment to the Composition requires
2/3 majority in Parliament. Must wait 8
years but no maximum period, after last
redelineation exercise (Mar 2003).
Do you understand the dangers of giving a Ruling Party
too much power? Applies to Pakatan also! 16
DESIGN: 1st 112 seats: 1.85 million – 17%.
2008: BN contested 139 seats to win 112
seats.
Total Parliament seats: 222
Simple majority: 112 seats
Associate Prof Tey Tsun Hang: Impossible obstacle! Download: SPR: M'sia's electoral system: Govt of the people?
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The smallest 112 seats come from:
Sabah, incl Labuan: 26,
Sarawak: 25,
Johor: 13,
Perak: 12,
Pahang: 8,
(Peninsular Malaysia: 61)
Only for 2/3 majority, the non-Bumis have a say
For GE 12 (2008), Sabah/Labuan contributed 26 &
Sarawak 25 to BN’s 112 smallest seats, meaning
they are the King-makers, not just fixed deposit!
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Question: Who decides
for a simple majority?
Rural Bumis !
Credit to: Ng CN
020
00
04
00
00
60
00
0
1 4 7
10 13 16 19 22 25
28 31 34 37 40 43
46
49 52 55 58 61
64 67
70 73 76 79 82 85
88 91
94 97
100
103
106
109
112
115
118
121
124
127
130
133
136
139
139 Smallest Constituencies 2008
Sabah
Sarawak
Peninsula
Non-BN
All Sabah & Labuan seats are smaller than A
Most Sarawak seats are less than half that of A
Pu
tra
jay
a
A = Average voter/constituency 49,119
19
20
HISTORICAL RESULTS !
YearAlliance Party/BN* Opposition Total
seatsSeats % seats % vote Seats % seats % vote
1959 74 71.15 51.7 30 28.85 48.3 104
1964 89 85.58 58.5 15 14.42 41.5 104
1969 95 65.97 49.3 49 34.03 50.7 144
1974 135 87.66 60.7 19 12.34 39.3 154
1978 130 84.42 57.2 24 15.58 42.8 154
1982 132 85.71 60.5 22 14.29 39.5 154
1986 148 83.62 55.8 29 16.38 41.5 177
1990 127 70.55 53.4 53 29.45 46.6 180
1995 162 84.38 65.2 30 15.62 34.8 192
1999 148 76.68 56.5 45 23.32 43.5 193
2004 198 90.41 63.9 21 9.59 36.1 219
2008 140 62.61 52.2 82 36.93 47.8 222
Party B Party PPolitics
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Analysts like to talk about 30:30:40%!Parliamentary Seats
0%
B30%
???40%
P30%
Level Playing Field
Sublimal message:
Be non-partisan.
The fence-sitters
decide the
elections!
Applicable to
votes, not seats!
22
Analysts never consider cheating, greed & fear !Parliamentary Seats
0%
B66%
???19%
P15%
Before 1999, Parliamentary Seats
B from UMW (26%)
Min seats: P - 15%, B - 66%!
Actual support for B 40%.
Balance 26%: SPR Bias including
gerrymandering, intimidation, malapp
ortionment , postal votes, vote buying
& cheating.
Does SPR Bias really affect 26%? Without data, it’s anybody’s
guess. You can choose any no. you like.
B
40%
SPR Bias
26%
Non-level playing field
23
Parliamentary Seats
0%
B66%
???19%
P15%
Before 1999, Parliamentary Seats
B from UMW (26%)
Min seats: P - 15%, B - 66%!
2. Lack of competent
polling agents.
B
40%
SPR Bias
26%
3: Trojans! Polling agents who are
bought over.
THREE SIGNIFICANT FACTORS
1. SPR Bias
24
Mar 2008: For the first time in history,
people believed that change was possible!
Parliamentary Seat
s0%
B63%
P37%
Parliamentary Seats
Would your vote
have made a
difference?
25
Mar 2008: What if ?
With 3,134
votes, you can
help to give Party
B a 2/3 majority!
Parliamentary Seats
0%
P33%
???4%
B63%
3,134
votes
26
Mar 2008: What if ?
56,842 votes
would have
brought Party
P to Putrajaya!
Parliamentary Seats
0%
B50%
???13%
P37%
56,842 votes
27
What can We do?
For that, we need:
• BERSIH 2.0, or 3.0
• Electoral Reform
• Polling Agents!
SPR Bias 20%:
How can we reduce it?
Parliamentary Seats
0%
B40%
SPR Bias20%
???15%
P 25%
Parliamentary Seats - Future
We estimate that support for B
is 40%, P 25%, Undecided 15%.
And SPR Bias is 20%!
Please note: This is just a guess.
Free and Fair Elections!
That’s where
we come in!
29
SPR: “The job of the SPR is to ensure that the Malays (under UMNO) do not lose political power.” (PAS & PKR don’t have Malay?)
http://mt.m2day.org/2008/content/view/18775/84/Year 2000: If we abolish the postal vote system then not a single Minister would be able to retain his or her seat.
RECAPOur Electoral System is deeply-flawed.
The Election Commission and their staff
should not come from the civil service.
They should be replaced by members of civil
society who are known to be more neutral!
More than 100 amendments to the election
laws and regulations proposed to the PSC.
Only a small % was accepted! BERSIH 3.0!30
END
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