HAZARD MITIGATION ASSISTANCE Region X Mitigation Summit 2014.
Forner / Höhne - Determination of the mitigation potential ...Determination of the mitigation...
Transcript of Forner / Höhne - Determination of the mitigation potential ...Determination of the mitigation...
Determination of the mitigationpotential and possible ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex I Parties
AWG 427 August 2007Vienna, Austria
Claudio Forner, [email protected] Höhne, [email protected]
Content
1. Introduction to the technical paper2. Definition of mitigation potential3. Synthesis of submissions by Parties4. Factors and indicators5. Summary
Introduction to the paper
• Four substantive Chapters:– Background– Synthesis of submissions by Parties– Factors and indicators– Other information
• Annex with data on factors and indicators
Mitigation potential (MP)
• Market potential: based on private costs and private discount rates, noting that barriers limit actual uptake.
• Economic potential takes into account social costs and benefits and social discount rates, assuming that market efficiency is improved by policies and measures and that barriers are removed.
Mitigation potential (cont’d)
GHG emissions
Past trends and current state of GHG emissions (and related factors)
Future state of GHG emissions (and related factors)a
•Technologies•Policies and measures•Costs
Time
BAU
Mitigation potential
Synthesis of submissions
• Assessing mitigation potential:– Efficiency– BAT
• Factors and indicators– by type: emission-related, economic, social
and others – by sector: intensities (emissions per output, per
area, per household, per freight, etc.)– Costs: total/sectoral cost of abatement,
economic potential at diff. prices, – Other: use of mechanisms, LULUCF,
deforestation
Factors and indicators
• Absolute: Magnitude of MP• Relative (efficiencies and intensities):
improvements contributing to MP
• Nation wide: broad socio-economic• Sectoral: split based on IPCC• Crosscutting: technology, policies and
measures and costs
Overview of indicatorsNation-wide GHG emissions, trends, sectors, GDP, population, energy supply,
fuel mix, GHG/cap, GHG/GDP, TPES/cap, TPES/GDP, share of exports in GDP, human development index
Energy industries and fugitive
GHG/kWh, fuel mix and efficiency in electricity production
Industry GHG emissions/production, share of process and fugitive emissions
Transport Fuel efficiency, travel activity, modal split, population density
Households and services
GHG/cap, electricity use in households/cap, heating and cooling degree days
Agriculture GHG/GDP from agriculture
Waste Waste/cap, share land-filled and incinerated, percentage of CH4 recovered from landfills
Land-use change and forestry
GHG/km2 (for forestry and agricultural soils separately)
International transport
Share of international and domestic transport
GHG emission and trends
• Declined: EITs, EU• Increased: AUS, CAN, TUR, USA,…
0
1,000
2,000
3,0004,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Aus
tralia
Bel
arus
Can
ada
Cro
atia
Icel
and
Japa
nN
. Zea
land
Nor
way
Rus
sia
Sw
itzer
land
Turk
eyU
krai
neU
SA
EU
A
vera
ge
Tota
l GH
G e
mis
sion
s in
200
4(M
tCO
2eq.
)
-80
-60
-40
-200
20
40
60
80
Cha
nge
in e
mis
sion
s fr
om b
ase
year
to20
04
Population trends
• Declining: Eastern European states• Increasing: AUS, CAN, TUR, USA,…
Projected population growth 2004–2020 (%)
-20-15-10
-505
10152025
Aus
tralia
Bel
arus
Can
ada
Cro
atia
Icel
and
Japa
n
N. Z
eala
nd
Nor
way
Rus
sia
Sw
itzer
land
Turk
ey
Ukr
aine
US
A
EU
A
vera
ge
EUUnited StatesUkraine
Turkey
Switzerland
Russia
Norway
N. Zealand
Japan
Iceland
Croatia
CanadaBelarus
Australia
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12Energy supply / cap (toe/cap)
GH
G e
mis
sion
s / e
nerg
y su
pply
(tC
O2
eq./t
oe)
GHG and energy intensity
Energy intensive
GH
G in
tens
ive
ener
gy
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%A
ustra
lia
Bel
arus
Can
ada
Cro
atia
Icel
and
Japa
n
N. Z
eala
nd
Nor
way
Rus
sia
Sw
itzer
land
Turk
ey
Ukr
aine
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
EU
A
vera
ge
Renewable
Nuclear
Fossil
• Large contribution of fossil fuels• Renewables high: CAN, ICE, NZL, NOR, CHE • Share of renewables (without hydro) usually below 5%
Energy mix
GHG emissions per sector
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%A
ustra
lia
Bel
arus
Can
ada
Cro
atia
Icel
and
Japa
n
N. Z
eala
nd
Nor
way
Rus
sia
Sw
itzer
land
Turk
ey
Ukr
aine
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
EU
A
vera
ge
WasteAgricultureHouseh.+servicesTransportIndustryEnergy industries
• Significant difference to the average in some small countries• Most emissions from energy industries followed by
industry/transport
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Aus
tralia
Bel
arus
Can
ada
Cro
atia
Icel
and
Japa
n
N. Z
eala
nd
Nor
way
Rus
sia
Sw
itzer
land
Turk
ey
Ukr
aine
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
EU
A
vera
ge
CO 2
em
issi
ons/
kW
h (g
CO
2/kW
h)841
CO2 intensity of electricity production
• Higher intensity for countries with high use of fossil fuels• Lower intensity for countries with significant use of renewables
Note: values includes electricity and heat production, hence countries with high share of CHP (commonin EITs) have low values
Industrial efficiency
• Comparable data rarely available
GHG emissions/tonne of cement (t CO2/t cement)
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
Can
ada
Ger
man
y
Italy
Japa
n
Spa
in
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Fuel efficiency of passenger cars (l/100km)
6.26.46.66.87.07.27.47.67.88.08.2
Aus
tria
Fran
ce
Ger
man
y
Irela
nd
Net
herla
nds
Nor
way
Spa
in
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
• Emissions vary substantially due to practices and geography• Modal split, level of travel and efficiencies not readily available
Transport
Electricity use/capita (kWh/capita)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Aust
ralia
Bela
rus
Can
ada
Cro
atia
Icel
and
Japa
n
N. Z
eala
nd
Nor
way
Rus
sia
Switz
erla
nd
Turk
ey
Ukr
aine
Uni
ted
Stat
es EU
Av
erag
e
Heating and cooling• Heating and cooling needs vary substantially• Area of heated/cooled space is not availableElectricity use• Efficiencies and number of appliances are not available• Emissions depend on carbon intensity of energy
Households and services
Indicators
• Emissions from agriculture vary due to products and practices• More specific indicators necessary
GHG emission of sector/GDP PPP of agricultural sector (tCO2 eq/USD 1,000)
0
1
2
3
4
Aus
tralia
Bel
arus
Cro
atia
Icel
and
Japa
n
Nor
way
Rus
sia
Turk
ey
Ukr
aine
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
4.5
Australia
FranceGermany
IcelandJapan
N. ZealandNorway
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 100 200 300 400 500
Waste per capita landfilled (kg)
Met
hane
reco
vere
d (%
)
Waste
• Substantially different practices to handle waste
Reduce waste that is landfilled
Rec
over
mor
e m
etha
ne
Land use, land-use change and forestry
• Removals from forests vary substantially• Emissions from soils vary substantially
Net CO2 emissions or removals per forested area (t CO2/km2)
-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100
Aust
ralia
Bela
rus
Can
ada
Cro
atia
Icel
and
Japa
n
N. Z
eala
nd
Nor
way
Rus
sia
Switz
erla
nd
Ukr
aine
-1359
Summary
Summary
2. What are the costs to reach these levels?
1. What are the reductions necessary to reach a certain stabilization level?
Stabilization levels and Annex I reductions
Source: IPCC AR4 WGIII
Review of studies that provided possible emission targets for countries (before trading) to reach a certain stabilization level
Mitigation potential
50 GtCO2eq.
2004 2030
Reference scenario59-68 GtCO2eq.
Mitigation potential
IPCC sectoral economic mitigation potential
Source: IPCC AR4 WGIII SPM
Conservative estimates because:• Changes in lifestyle or behavioural aspects have not been considered• Few studies have been undertaken for high carbon prices • Some mitigation options were not analyzed (10% to 15%)
Summary
Source: IPCC AR4 SPM WGIII
Source of estimate
2020 (% change
compared to 1990)
2030 (% change
compared to 1990)
2050 (% change
compared to 1990)
National communications by some Annex I Parties: estimated effect of ‘additional measures’ on GHG emissions
57 to -45
450 ppmv CO2 eq -25 to -40 -80 to -95
550 ppmv CO2 eq -10 to -30 -40 to -90
650 ppmv CO2 eq 0 to -25 -30 to -80
USD 100 A1B: -22 to -39B2: -18 to -34
USD 50 A1B: -27B2: -23
USD 20 A1B: -19B2: -15
2. IPCC: indication of possible reductions by Annex I Parties relative to scenarios A1B and B2, based on different levels for carbon price
1. IPCC: required reductions for Annex I Parties based on allocation rules (before trading)
Options to obtain further information
1. Comprehensive study with one model by an independent entity, using information provided by Parties
2. Further disaggregate the mitigation potential of the AR4
3. Assessment of mitigation potential per country by national experts
Thank you!
Backup slides
Energy mix
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%A
ustra
lia
Bel
arus
Can
ada
Cro
atia
Icel
and
Japa
n
N. Z
eala
nd
Nor
way
Rus
sia
Sw
itzer
land
Turk
ey
Ukr
aine
Uni
ted
Stat
es EU
Av
erag
e
Biomass/ waste Solar/ wind/ other GeothermalHydropowerNuclear Gas Oil Coal
• Large contribution of fossil fuels• Renewables: CAN, ICE, NZL, NOR, CHE • Share of renewables (without hydro) usually below 5%
Split of sectorsSector IPCC source categoryEnergy industries and fugitive
1A1 Energy Industries1B Fugitive emissions from fuels
Industry 1A2 Manufacturing industries and construction2 Industrial processes3 Solvents
Transport 1A3 TransportHouseholds and services 1A4 Other sectors
1A5 OtherAgriculture 4 AgricultureLand-use change and forestry
5 Land-use change and forestry
Waste 6 WasteInternational transport 1A3a,i Transport civil aviation international
1A3d,i Transport navigation international
Transport
• Emissions vary substantially due to practices and geography• Transport activity not readily available
Transport activity
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000Au
stria
Fran
ce
Ger
man
y
Irela
nd
Net
herla
nds
Nor
way
Spai
n
Uni
ted
King
dom
pkm
/cap
010002000300040005000600070008000900010000
tkm
/cap
Personal transport activity (pkm/capita)Freight transport activity (tkm/capita)
EU
US Ukraine
Turkey
Switzerland
Russia
Norway
N. Zealand
Japan
Iceland
Croatia
CanadaBelarus
Australia
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80Share of renewables and nuclear in energy mix (%)
GHG
em
issi
ons
/ ene
rgy
supp
ly (t
CO2
eq./t
oe)
GHG and energy intensityG
HG
inte
nsiv
e en
ergy
• With higher share of renewables and nuclear, the GHG intensity is lower
• GHG intensity also depends on share between coal and gas
GHG and energy intensity
• High per capita emissions occur in energy and GHG intensive economies
Australia
Belarus Canada
Croatia
Iceland
Japan
N. Zealand
Norway
Russia
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine United StatesEU
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12Energy supply / cap (toe/cap)
GH
G e
mis
sion
s / e
nerg
y su
pply
(tC
O2
eq./t
oe)
Energy intensive
5 tCO2eq/cap 10 tCO2eq/cap 15 tCO2eq/cap 20 tCO2eq/cap 25 tCO2eq/cap
GH
G in
tens
ive
ener
gy
Global reductions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
GtC
O2
(B2+A1B)/2
BU 0US$ low
BU 0US$ high
BU 20US$ low
BU 20US$ high
BU 50US$ low
BU 50US$ high
BU 100US$ low
BU 100US$ high