Formulate stronger hypotheses
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FORMULATE STRONGER HYPOTHESES FOR A MORE EFFECTIVE ABDUCTIVE DESING RESEARCH Photo credit: Andrew Filer Carmen Brion @Tea_monster UX Camp Brighton 2016
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Transcript of Formulate stronger hypotheses
FORMULATE STRONGER HYPOTHESESFOR A MORE EFFECTIVE ABDUCTIVE DESING RESEARCH
Photo credit: Andrew Filer
Carmen Brion @Tea_monster UX Camp Brighton 2016
❖ Hypotheses come from the best information available
❖ Often need an educated guess based on some evidence
Abductive reasoning
✴ starts with an incomplete set of observations
✴ proceeds to the likeliest possibleexplanation
Why Abductive Design Research?
Multidisciplinary design teamsand stakeholders
❖ align on the problem space andits level of complexity
❖ separate assumptions from facts
❖ prioritise and select assumptions to validate
Hypotheses make design research
✴ more targeted
✴ collaborative
Hypotheses guide design teams
Where these hypotheses fit within the design framework?
UnderstandObserve Define
Ideate
Prototype/MVP
DISCOVER DEFINE
PROBLEM DEFINITION
DEVELOP
IMPLEMENT
Re-define Test
THINK MAKE CHECK
LEARN
LEAN UX
DESING THINKING
Validate/Invalidate/ReframeHypotheses
Hypotheses
2 1
❖ Lead to aimless research
❖ Makes it hard to validate assumptions
❖ Give teams a false sense of going in the right direction
❖ Designs don’t solve problems for the business or the customer
Bad hypotheses lead toaimless design
Photo credit: Quinn Dombrowski
✴ Hypotheses are tricky to formulate
✴ Poor hypotheses are as bad or worse than no hypotheses
Formulating sound hypotheses:purposeful abductive design researchWe need to go back to the scientific method
Photo credit: Lefteris Heretakis
❖ It is simple and unambiguous
❖ Has an independent variable and a dependent variable
❖ States a clear relationship between these two variables, based on some evidence
❖ It is testable, measurable, falsifiable and positive
Photo credit: Gerry Lauzon
What makes a hypothesis sound?
Photo credit: Markus Spiske
Adductive Design Research Framework
1. DEFINE ASSUMPTIONS
2. DEFINE THE PROBLEMS TO SOLVE
3. FORMULATE THE HYPOTHESES
4. DEFINE THE RESEARCH TO ASSESS THE HYPOTHESIS
5. RUN THE RESEARCH
6. ASSESS THE RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH
WHO IS THE AUDIENCE? WHAT ARE THE PROBLEMS? WHAT IS THE BEST SOLUTION?
GENERATIVE RESEARCH
EVALUATIVE RESEARCH
Worth considering when formulating a hypothesis
“Find the root cause,don’t just put a plaster overthe symptoms”
• Impact of the solution to the business? • Will the audience use/pay for this
solution? • Is there a sustainable market for this
solution?
• Who is the audience? • Job to be done by the audience? • Potential new segments? • What are their behaviours?
• What are the business problems? • What does the business aim to achieve
with the new solution?
• Audience problems? • Audience pains and frustrations?
• Do solutions solve the problems? • How solutions fit with the audience
mental models?
• How does the solution meetthe business goals?
• How is the solution working? • Impact to the audience? • Which solution is better?
Photo credit: Markus Spiske
Formulating hypotheses is tricky
➡ This is not a hypothesis.It is just a description of a design feature.
If we offer pagination to online shoppers then they will have more items to explore
Bad hypothesis
If pagination is a more efficient way to find items then online shoppers will find items quicker using pagination than using infinite scrolling
Good hypothesis
➡ A way to formulate a hypothesis for this design feature.Ask why having items to explore it is important to users.
WHO IS THE AUDIENCE? WHAT ARE THE PROBLEMS? WHAT IS THE BEST SOLUTION?
GENERATIVE RESEARCH
EVALUATIVE RESEARCH
Different ways to write hypotheses“Ask the right questionsto get insights that lead to theright solutions“
We believe that [this people are a potential (new) audience] because of [this reason]
We believe that [this audience will behave this way] because of [this reason]
We believe that [this audience with these goals] have [this job to be done]
We believe that [this audience have this problem achieving this goal] because of [this reason]
We believe that [this audience have this pain/frustration] leading to [this consequence]
We believe that [this audience using this solution] will results in [this outcome]
We believe that [this solution] will results in [this change in the audience mental model/behaviour]
If we provide [this solution] then [this audience will be able to achieve this outcome] leading to [this improvement]
If [this solution the best solution for the audience to achieve this outcome] then [we will see this improvement]
References
The Real Lean Startup Book
http://www.trikro.com/downloads/playbook
Hypotheses-led design
❖ https://medium.com/@mwambach1/hypotheses-driven-ux-design-c75fbf3ce7cc#.d7rhwimep
❖ https://www.thoughtworks.com/insights/blog/how-implement-hypothesis-driven-development
❖ http://www.slideshare.net/inusese/cindy-alvarez-embracing-hypothesis-driven-design
Scientific hypotheses
❖ http://www.wikihow.com/Write-a-Hypothesis
For listening :)
“Few ideas work on the first try. Iteration is key to innovation” ― Sebastian Thrun
Photo credit: Paul Downey
