FORMAT Final Conference - brief

FORMAT Final Conference

FORMAT project team and guest speakers

Politecnico di Milano, May 14-15, 2015

©FORMAT CONSORTIUM ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2

FORMAT Final conference Agenda

FORMAT FINAL CONFERENCEMAY, 14-15 2015

FORMAT Final Conference 14-15 May 2015

Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Meccanica

DAY 1 (Thursday, 14th May 2015)

Welcoming Session and Introduction13:00 - 14:00 Arrival and Registration

14:00 - 14.15

Official Welcome

and Conference Overview

Gaetano Cascini

(Project Coordinator)Politecnico di Milano

Invited Speakers Session

14:15 – 15:00 Invited Speaker 1The Use of Multi-

Generation Diffusion Models in Technology

Forecasting

Mohsen Hamoudia President of the International Institute of

Forecasters




Invited Speakers Session 15:00 – 15:45

Invited Speaker 2

The Science of Data-Driven Prediction

Ralph Grothman Siemens Corporate

Technology

15:45 – 16:00 Coffee break FORMAT Project in Practice

16:00 – 16:30 Introduction to the FORMAT Methodology

What? FORMAT TF ApproachHow? Methodology & Stages

Software & ToolsManagement approach

Where to find info? Website, Handbook & Newsletter

Gaetano CasciniPolitecnico di Milano

16:30 – 17:00 Case Studies at WhirlpoolVacuum Forming

Pre-Coated Steel sheetsDecoration

Pierluigi PetraliOperation Center of Excellence,

Whirlpool Europe S.r.l.




FORMAT Project in Practice17:00 – 17:30 External Case Study

in an Italian SMEApplication of FORMAT in

Car Interiors Design

Sandro FeltrinRIC S.r.l.

17:30 – 18:00 Open Q&A Session

18:00 Closure of Day 1

DAY 2 (Friday, 15th May 2015)

FORMAT Transfer of Knowledge

9:00 – 9:45 Technology Forecasting for Industrial Processes

Dmitry KucharavyPolitecnico di Milano

9:45 – 10:00 FORMAT Methodology in Depth

Gaetano CasciniPolitecnico di Milano

10:00 – 10:15 Stage FOR: Defining Forecast Questions &

Planning the Project

Igor KaikovWhirlpool Europe Srl

10:15 – 10:45 Stage M: Modelling Existing Knowledge

& Extracting Limiting Resources

Mateusz SlupinskiWroclaw University of Technology




FORMAT Transfer of Knowledge 10:45 – 11:15 Coffee break

11:15 – 11:45 Stage A:Act to Identify Future Traits of the

System to be Forecasted

Niccolò BecattiniChristopher NikulinPolitecnico di Milano

11:45 – 12:05 Stage T:Transferring Conclusions to Decision

Makers

Dmitry KucharavyPolitecnico di Milano

12:05 – 12:30 Text Mining on patents Emanuele FestaPolitecnico di MilanoMassimo Tarantelli

Innovation Engineering Srl12:30 – 12:45 FORMAT Methodology

Recap Gaetano Cascini

Politecnico di Milano

12:45 – 13:00 Q&A Session

13.00 – 14.00 Lunch Break Case Studies in detail

14:00 – 14:30 Case Study 1: Decoration Technologies


14:30 – 15:10 Case Study 2: Pre-coated Steel Sheets

Niccolò BecattiniPolitecnico di Milano




Case Studies in detail 15:10 – 15:50 Case Study 3:

Post-industrial future of Konin (Poland)


15:50 – 16:20 Case Study 4:A vehicle for everyday use in 2030

Sebastian Koziolek Wroclaw University of Technology

16:20 – 17:00 Q&A Session & Final Discussion

17:00 Closure of Day 2

Welcome and

Conference Overview

G. Cascini (Politecnico di Milano)

FORMAT project

8©FORMAT CONSORTIUM ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Academia Industry

9

Keynote #1

©FORMAT CONSORTIUM ALL RIGHTS RESERVED


10

Keynote #1


FORMAT FINAL CONFERENCEMAY, 14-15 2015 Sample slide, for more go to: http://handbook.format-project.eu section ‘Downloads’

http://handbook.format-project.eu/


The Science of Data-Driven Predictions

Siemens Corporate Technology | Learning Systems

Restricted © Siemens AG 2014. All rights reserved

Forecasting Supply of Renewable Energy

Forecasting Secondary Control Reserve Prices

Energy Load Forecasting Forecasting of Energy flows and Transmission Losses

Energy Price Forecasting of Spot and Future Markets

Accurate (data-driven) forecasts: increase the planning reliability of renewable energy

sources like wind or solar help to identify peak loads stabilize energy grids through a better estimation of

load flows and transmission losses price forecasts minimize market risks and support

optimal resource allocation and planning

Forecasting Solutions for the Energy IndustryForecasting Solutions for the Energy Industry

Sample slide, for more go to: http://handbook.format-project.eu section ‘Downloads’© Siemens AG, Corporate Technology



http://www.swissgrid.ch/swissgrid/de/home.html

http://www.eex.com/de

Introduction to the FORMAT Methodology



FORMAT Methodology:Stages and Gates

FORmulate(stage)

Act(stage)

Model (Stage)

A Gate

FORGate

MGate

Transfer(stage)

T Gate

Next round

DM requires further study

Develop forecast for defined system and contexts (A)

<identify> <a system of problems> <that drives evolution of system>

<recognize> <evolutionary trends> <for identified system>

<identify> <changes of performance characteristic in time>

<aggregate and validate> <results of qualitative and quantitative studies> <into forecast>

Sample slide, for more go to: http://handbook.format-project.eu section ‘Downloads’



Case Studies at Whirlpool

Pierluigi Petrali (Whirlpool)

16

TF objectives: to support decision



Give consistency in technology / product roadmap

Drive research activities (i.e. where to allocate money and resources)

Design new products

Identify competences needed to improve competitivity

Invest on technology




EXTERNAL CASE STUDY fOR ITALIAN SME’sApplication of the FORMAT Methodology to Car Interiors Design

Il Laboratorio della Camera di Commercio di Treviso

SANDRO FELTRIN (RIC S.r.l.)

Il Laboratorio della Camera di Commercio di Treviso

SubSystem Presentinterno porte, zona specchietto, ponte centrale, plancia, volante, sedili, cappelliera

5th – WHAT the STF and its

main alternative(s) are, were 10-15 years

ago and are expected to be in

10 to 15 years from today ?

Description for STF (and its main alternative?) with• contexts=su

per-systems (TEES) and sub-systems

• past history & expected future

• present trends

SuperSystem Future (2015-2025)

System PresentSystem: Interni auto (v. funzione slide 27: <accogliere> <passeggeri>)

System Past (1990-2010)

SuperSystem PresentAbitacolo vettura: includendo guida, dispositivi di sicurezza, cruscotto e strumentazione, navigazione, radio

SuperSystem Past

SubSystem Future(2015-2025)

SubSystem Past

System Future (2015-2025)




Technology Forecasting for Industrial Processes

KUCHARAVY Dmitry (Politecnico di Milano)

20

why to predict



During the last decades even the leading companies

• delay to recognize and to agree on problems and threats;

• delay to solve problems and to agree about solutions;

• delay to implement potential solutions and understand their

limitations.

source of infographics: http://www.statista.com/


http://www.statista.com/

http://www.statista.com/



Introduction to the FORMAT Methodology



Reference models

Growth under competition• …• For socio technical systems the 3‐ ‐

parameter S shaped growth model is ‐applied for describing "trajectories" of growth or decline in time




Stage FOR:Defining Forecast Questions &

Planning the Project

Kaykov Igor (Whirlpool Europe)


(FOR) Stage: to set up the project


What is expected by users and beneficiaries as a result of the forecast? What questions should be answered for decision makers? What is the necessary level of detail?

How do the results need to be presented? (e.g. graphs, charts, report) How will these results be used by users and beneficiaries? Will the results of the forecast be used for other purposes? Which

ones?

What is the approximate time span when a result may be used? Where are the results going to be useful? Who is going to use the results of the forecast?

These questions need to be answered during first working session

WHAT

WHY

WHERE

WHEN




Stage M: Modelling Existing Knowledge & Extracting Limiting Resources

Mateusz Słupiński (Wroclaw University of Technology)

26

M_5 Context



Super-systems for 2004

<Modify> <colors> <of surface>

1. Output is mostly non-changeable (printed)

2. Decoration process: • with large stock, • it is off-line, • recyclability of equipment was

not an issue• energy consumption was not an

important issue. 3. Investment in equipment, tools, HR,

maintenance was lower. 4. Front surface used for decoration

<Modify > <colors> <of surface> (to deliver information to users** & to improve esthetic experience)1. Output of decoration is printed and

changeable (display) 2. Decoration process:

• with stock, • it is off-line, • recyclability of equipment and

tools (!) • energy consumption (!)

3. Investment in equipment, HR and maintenance is higher.

4. Rear surface is used for decoration

<Modify > <colors>

1. Output of decoration is printed and/or dynamic

2. Decoration process: • without stock, • it is in-line , • increased recyclability of

equipment and tools, • reduced energy consumption.

3. More (??) investment for equipment, HR and maintenances.

4. Back side of Intermediate layer used for decoration

• Silk screening (60%)• Pad printing (40%)

• Silk screening• Pad printing• Others 10%

• Laser marking

• More diversity of applied technologies for different substrates and products.

• Time form operator’s involvement will decrease;

• preprocess time decrease

2014 20242004

Super-systems for 2014 Super-systems for 2024

System Operator in ‘Decoration’ case study




Stage A: Act to Identify Future Traits of the System to be

Forecasted

Niccolò Becattini (Politecnico di Milano)


Step A_4


Forecasting through the analysis of quantitative

trends

Forecasting further directions of evolution

through analogies

Forecasting problems preventing technical

systems evolution

Since the maximum interior volume expected in

refrigerators for next years is expected to be 614.47 liters (i.e. substantially STABLE)

THEN

There will be no need to change vacuum forming machines to obtain fridge

cavities larger than the current ones




Stage T:Transferring Conclusions to Decision Makers

KUCHARAVY Dmitry (Politecnico di Milano)

30

Known issues

Ambiguous interpretations of obtained data (time series) about system to forecast

How to capitalize the collected information and acquired field-knowledge?

Lack of participation of Users and Beneficiaries

How to make the final presentation and elaborate reports useful in practice for Users and

Beneficiaries?






Text Mining on patents

Massimo Tarantelli (Innovation Engineering, Rome), Emanuele Festa (Politecnico di Milano)


How to do Text Mining?


Corpus selection Pre-processing Post-processing

Words table (2907777rows)

Patent_statistic table

(215887 rows)

Word_statistic table(215887 rows)

Patent_statistic.csv(215887 rows)

Word_statistic.csv (215887 rows)

Output as MySQL tables Output as CSV files

Analysis steps 3

The 2 outputs contain the same information




Case Study 1: Decoration Technologies


34

Quantitative forecasting



2 Herreria, J. L. Bill of Process Decorations for Plastic, Glass & Metal Substrate (2011). Benton Harbor: Advanced Manufacturing, Whirlpool. Confidential

Parameter #6

Parameter #5

Parameter #4

Parameter #3

Parameter #2

Parameter #1

-1

0

1

silk printing pad printing hot stampinglaser marking chemical etching inkjet printing




PRE-PAINTING Case Study

Team AStage T


Niccolò Becattini (Politecnico di Milano)


Year Coating type Alternative Colors Finishing

2000Polyester 19 (b/w + blue, green,

yellow)?

PVC 16 (b/w + blue, red, green, yellow)

?

PVDF 4 (white, light grey) ?

2014

Polyester 57 (full range) Smooth

Polyester Matt 15 (grey, brown, black, green, red)

Grained

Polyester Nova 54 (full range) Grained

Polyester Nova Matt

12 (b/w, grey, brown, green, red)

Smooth

PVC 49 (full range) Embossed

PVDF 15 (b/w, grey, brown, green, red)

Smooth

Colors and Finishing




Post-industrial future of Konin city region


http://www.format-project.eu/

http://pracowniamiejska.pl/pracownia_eng/indexen.php

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M_4: AlternativesSelection



Alternative solution Measures associated

Domains related

1 Education programs answering to job market demand 7 2

2 Entrepreneurship incubator 5 23 City-bike system 5 34 City-bike promotion program 3 3

5 Integrated cooperation between council, business and NGO (Increased role of business council) 7 2

6 Municipal beach 5 37 Private and public zero-energy buildings 1 18 Turning a city towards a river 5 2




Stage: Model

Transport of human with his belongings from point A to B

Energy

Human in point A

Human in point B

AccidentsResource usageGas emissionParking

StoresProtectsGives pleasure





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Would you like to learn more? Go to:

Our main siteTeam, public deliverables, White Papers

http://www.format-project.eu

Handbook handbook, case studies, conference materials

http://handbook.format-project.eu

Downloads: http://handbook.format-project.eu/?page_id=354







http://handbook.format-project.eu/?page_id=354

http://handbook.format-project.eu/?page_id=354

FORMAT Final Conference - brief

Engineering

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