FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting ...FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction...

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FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes Janyl Jumadinova Ph.D. in Information Science and Technology Advisor: Dr. Raj Dasgupta University of Nebraska, Omaha April 6, 2010 Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting

Transcript of FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting ...FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction...

  • FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market forForecasting Event Outcomes

    Janyl Jumadinova

    Ph.D. in Information Science and TechnologyAdvisor: Dr. Raj Dasgupta

    University of Nebraska, Omaha

    April 6, 2010

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • What is a Prediction Market?

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Deficits with existing Models of Prediction Markets

    How do prices change

    – when new information arrives very frequently (or very rarely)– when information has little impact (presidential candidate

    tours the North East) vs. high impact (candidate announcesrunning mate)

    – when information has little reliability (Twitter) vs. highreliability (press release)

    – when only a few people get the information vs. everybody getsit

    No risk-behavior was modeled

    – Do traders take financial risks while buying/selling or are theyconservative?

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Multi-Agent Prediction Market

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • What we learned...

    When information arrives more frequently

    – Prices fluctuate less– Utilities increase (15− 40%)

    When information has more impact

    – Prices tend to increase

    When information is more reliable

    – Prices are more stable– Utilities are higher (30− 45%)

    When information is easily available

    – Prices are driven down– Utilities are higher (25− 37%)

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • What we learned...

    When information arrives more frequently

    – Prices fluctuate less– Utilities increase (15− 40%)

    When information has more impact

    – Prices tend to increase

    When information is more reliable

    – Prices are more stable– Utilities are higher (30− 45%)

    When information is easily available

    – Prices are driven down– Utilities are higher (25− 37%)

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • What we learned...

    When information arrives more frequently

    – Prices fluctuate less– Utilities increase (15− 40%)

    When information has more impact

    – Prices tend to increase

    When information is more reliable

    – Prices are more stable– Utilities are higher (30− 45%)

    When information is easily available

    – Prices are driven down– Utilities are higher (25− 37%)

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • What we learned...

    When information arrives more frequently

    – Prices fluctuate less– Utilities increase (15− 40%)

    When information has more impact

    – Prices tend to increase

    When information is more reliable

    – Prices are more stable– Utilities are higher (30− 45%)

    When information is easily available

    – Prices are driven down– Utilities are higher (25− 37%)

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • As Compared to Others

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • As Compared to Others

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Benefits of our research

    Information aggregation is pervasive...Internet-based social networks, sensor networks, daily lives ofpeople, etc.

    Our results give a better understanding about how theinformation aggregation process responds to changes ininformation-related parameters

    Gives prior indication about which direction security prices willgoCan be used to take some of the guesswork out ofbuying/selling securities

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes

  • Benefits of our research

    Information aggregation is pervasive...Internet-based social networks, sensor networks, daily lives ofpeople, etc.

    Our results give a better understanding about how theinformation aggregation process responds to changes ininformation-related parameters

    Gives prior indication about which direction security prices willgoCan be used to take some of the guesswork out ofbuying/selling securities

    Janyl Jumadinova FORETELL: A Multi-agent Prediction Market for Forecasting Event Outcomes


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