Forest Product Market Trends...Tropical Forestry Handbook DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-41554-8_251-1 #...

Forest Product Market Trends

Frances Maplesdena* and Steven JohnsonbaMaplesden Consulting, Rotorua, New ZealandbInternational Tropical Timber Organization, Yokohama, Japan

Abstract

This chapter focuses on market trends in the major wood products sectors. It discusses market trends andissues affecting consumption in export markets, as well as societal market issues in tropical producercountries.

Keywords

Tropical wood products; Markets; Trade; Market structures; Logs; Sawnwood; Plywood; Secondaryprocessed wood products

Introduction

The last 20 years has seen considerable change in the tropical wood products sector, as the availability oftropical roundwood has become more restricted and as economic and demographic changes have shiftedthe location and growth of tropical wood products industries – and the geographic location ofdemand – from developed to developing countries, particularly China. This subchapter discusses markettrends and drivers for the following products: tropical logs, sawnwood, wood-based panels, pulp andpaper, and secondary processed wood products (SPWPs).

Consumer Market Trends and Drivers

Economic Trends Affecting Tropical Wood Product Markets

GDP GrowthGlobal economic growth is a major indicator of demand for tropical wood products because of its impactson housing and construction activity and consumer wealth and spending, which have flow-on effects ondemand for wood-based products. Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of a country’seconomic output.

Economic growth in tropical producer countries has outpaced that of consumer countries since the1990s (Table 1). Real global GDP growth slowed considerably in 2008–2009 because of the economicrecession in developed economies and again in 2011–2012 in response to the euro area crisis. Tropicalcountries with strong trade links with the United States of America (USA) and the European Union(EU) were most affected by these crises. Global GDP growth is predicted to increase from 3 % in 2013 to

*Email: [email protected]

Tropical Forestry HandbookDOI 10.1007/978-3-642-41554-8_251-1# Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

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3.7% in 2014, largely because of a recovery in advanced economies, whose increased demand is expectedto lift growth in developing economies (Fig. 1).

GDP growth in the African region has been largely unaffected by recent financial turmoil, the region’seconomic resilience deriving from its relative insulation from financial spillovers from the euro region, thediversification of exports to fast-growing emerging economies, and high commodity prices, which havebenefited the region’s commodity exporters (Fig. 2). In the tropical Asian region, GDP growth hasfollowed trends in consumer countries, where weakening demand in 2012–2013 led to a broad-basedweakening of exports both within and outside Asia. Growth is expected to pick up as demand strengthensin consumer countries. Economic growth in the Latin America/Caribbean region decelerated faster than in

Table 1 Industrial roundwood balance in tropical producer regions (Asia-Pacific, Latin America/Caribbean, and Africa)(million m3)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012

Asia-Pacific

Production 94.04 88.37 109.55 101.24 105.57 104.10

Imports 3.20 3.36 3.73 4.21 4.64 6.03

Exports 11.14 11.52 10.62 8.90 9.09 10.52

Apparent consumption 86.10 90.21 102.66 96.55 101.12 99.61

Latin America/Caribbean

Production 32.75 35.21 33.65 39.75 39.67 39.96

Imports 0.05 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02

Exports 0.04 0.20 0.25 0.38 0.48 0.55


Africa

Production 18.38 22.86 19.98 28.69 28.43 28.60

Imports 0.17 0.07 0.01 - 0.01 0.01

Exports 5.74 5.07 3.22 3.43 2.76 3.44


Source: ITTO Statistics DatabaseNote: Tropical producer regions include ITTO member countries only

−4%

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Fig. 1 Real GDP growth, tropical producers, and consumers, 2000–2018(F) (Source: IMF 2014. Note: F = forecast; tropicalproducer and consumer countries are defined as ITTO member countries)


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other tropical regions in 2009 because of the region’s stronger trade linkages with the USA, althoughgrowth rebounded rapidly in 2010, reflecting rising commodity prices, robust demand in China, and arecovery in exports to other destinations. The decline in GDP growth in Latin America and the Caribbeansince 2010 has been a result of sluggish economic growth in Brazil.

GDP growth trends in tropical consumer regions (Fig. 3) reflect the impact of the global financial crisis,which was most severe in 2009, a partial recovery in 2010, and a period in which the euro area crisisresulted in severe austerity measures in many of the euro area economies, constraining public and privatespending and weakening consumer confidence and domestic consumption. In contrast with NorthAmerica and Europe, the Asian consumer region, with the exception of Japan, outpaced other regions,supported by strong export performance and growing domestic demand, particularly in China.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (IMF 2014), the World Bank (World Bank 2014), and theEuropean Commission (EC 2014) provide comprehensive updates on global economic developmentsand forecasts.

−4%

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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14F 15F 16F 17F 18F

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Fig. 2 Real GDP growth, tropical producer regions, 2000–2018(F) (Source: IMF 2014. Note: F = forecast; tropical producersand tropical consumers are defined as ITTO member countries)

−6%

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Fig. 3 Real GDP growth, tropical wood consumer regions, 2000-2018(F) (Source: IMF 2014. Note: F = forecast)


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Exchange RatesExchange rate movements have significant effects on the relative competitiveness of tropical woodproduct exports from producer countries, depending on the currencies in which the products are traded.Tropical wood product exports are commonly traded in US dollars to the US andMiddle East markets, theUnited Kingdom (UK) pound sterling to the UK market, and euros to the EU market. There wassignificant exchange rate volatility during the global financial crisis in 2008–2009, notably a depreciationof the US dollar and an appreciation of currencies in the emerging economies (although there was onlylimited change in those emerging economies, notably China, with large surpluses). The Brazilian currencyappreciated in real terms between 2003 and 2012 relative to the US dollar, reducing the competitiveness ofBrazil’s exports to the USA, a major trading partner.

Foreign Direct InvestmentGlobal financial conditions determine the flow of public- and private-sector capital to the construction sectorsin tropical consumer countries, as well as foreign direct investment (FDI) flows from high-income countriesto emerging economies. FDI is regarded as an important tool for financing development, increasingproductivity, and importing new technologies, and, as such, it has been important in financing investmentin the forest and wood-based industries in some tropical producer countries. FDI inflows declined during theglobal financial crisis in 2008–2009 as economic growth rates declined and uncertainty regarding futureeconomic prospects increased. The major tropical country recipients of FDI inflows have been countries withpolitical and macroeconomic stability and facilitating institutions – i.e., Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia, andMalaysia. Countries that are more prone to domestic conflict and political instability – such as Cameroon, theCentral African Republic, and Fiji – have received less FDI than other countries with similar characteristicsbut which are politically more stable.

Building and Construction TrendsThe demand for primary and secondary wood products, including those of tropical origin, is a deriveddemand, driven by residential, nonresidential, and public construction activity and by consumer wealthand spending. The global housing and construction market is a significant end-use sector for tropicalwood products. Construction activity in the USA, the EU, and Japan is indicative of global constructiontrends in important tropical consumer markets.

Depressed housing markets were a key aspect of the global financial crisis, with US housing startsreaching record lows in 2009 (Fig. 4). Spending on private residential and nonresidential construction fellsignificantly between 2006 and 2009, although public-sector construction spending increased (Fig. 5).Although housing starts in 2013 expanded by 18 % compared with 2012, they were still well below theirpeak of 2.3 million in 2005.

The EU housing construction market is stagnant because of the ongoing euro crisis, a recession inseveral countries, and the effects of the collapse of the Irish and Spanish housing markets (Fig. 6). In 2013,significant construction decreases were estimated for Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, with only Germanyand the UK expected to have robust construction activity through to 2015 (UNECE 2013).

Japan’s residential housing starts have grown since 2009, with reconstruction and new construction in therecovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake gaining momentum in 2013. However, housing starts remainrelatively low comparedwith historical levels (Fig. 7). Government promotion of wooden public buildings hasresulted in an increase inwood consumption in public construction, and this trend is expected to continue. Thispolicy was introduced in 2010 in response to the expected long-term decline in housing starts, whichpreviously consumed the bulk of wood used in construction, and the perceived opportunity to increasewood usage in public construction, which currently uses a limited proportion of wood-based materials.


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Market Competitiveness of Tropical Wood Products

Tropical Hardwood Market ApplicationsTropical hardwoods are widely regarded as providing the benchmark for technical and aestheticperformance in a number of higher-value market applications. Tropical hardwoods can be dividedinto three broad groups based on the combination of their natural durability, density, and aesthetics(Oliver and Donkor 2010):

• High-density woods used mainly in construction (e.g., keruing, greenheart, ekki, and iroko)• Low- to medium-density utility woods used mainly for external joinery, shop-fitting, and mid-priced

furniture (e.g., Shorea spp. such as Bangkirai, Meranti, Lauan, Seraya, Balau, and Philippine mahog-any, as well as Limba, Niangon, and rubberwood)

0

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Fig. 4 US housing starts, 1980–2013 (Source: US Bureau of the Census 2014a)

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Fig. 5 US housing spending, 2006–2013 (Source: US Bureau of the Census 2014b)


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• Decorative woods used for high-quality furniture, interior joinery, and flooring (e.g., teak, Khaya spp.,Dalbergia spp., Aningeria spp., makore, sapele, walnut, iroko, utile, merbau, and jatoba)

Oliver and Donkor (2010) noted that the use of tropical hardwoods in the large wood-consumingmarkets of industrialized countries has focused increasingly on either decorative applications or high-exposure applications (e.g., external joinery, boatbuilding, and marine works). This is due to the relativeabundance of temperate hardwood and softwood species now suitable for structural and joinery applica-tions as a result of innovation to extend their range of applications.

Competitive ThreatsTropical hardwoods face a number of competitive threats in export markets from both wood-based andnon-wood products. These are described in detail in Oliver and Donkor (2010).

A major competitive threat for tropical hardwoods is the ongoing efforts to improve the technical andaesthetic characteristics of softwoods and temperate hardwoods with the intention of mimicking the

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Fig. 7 Japan housing starts, 1996–2013 (Source: Japan Lumber Reports, various issues)

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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France Italy Netherlands UK

Fig. 6 EU building permits index, selected EU countries, 2004–2013 (Source: Eurostat. Note: Annual data index2010 = 100)


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aesthetic qualities, durability, and strength of tropical hardwoods. New wood-based composite productsmanufactured from small-diameter logs, woodchips, and sawdust have also emerged as a threat tosolidwood tropical hardwoods, particularly plywood. Many of these alternative products are sold withcertification from the Forest Stewardship Council or the Programme for the Endorsement of ForestCertification to increase their marketability. Some of these wood-modification products and processes are:

• Engineered wood products, such as glulam, laminated veneer lumber (LVL), I-joists, and orientedstrand board (OSB), which have extended the structural applications of softwoods and temperatehardwoods.

• Heat treatment, which enhances the durability and stability of softwoods for use in applications such asdecking, garden furniture, and external cladding.

• Acetylation, which also enhances the durability and stability of softwoods and is being marketed forexterior joinery, particularly windows, doors, conservatories, and cladding.

• Impregnation processes such as Indurite, which has been designed to improve the durability andhardness of species such as radiata pine.

• Surface technologies such as high-pressure laminates, continuous-pressure laminates, thermally fusedmelamine, decorative paper-based foils, decorative vinyls/3-D laminates, and direct printing. Thesetechnologies can give composite panels the appearance of natural wood at a significantly lower price.

• Wood–plastic composites, which combine plastics and wood residues and are used extensively inoutdoor decking in the US market.

Although product and process innovations have yet to fully close the gap between the performancecharacteristics of tropical hardwoods and those of alternative wood and non-wood products, significantresources are being used by companies in industrialized countries to improve processes and extendcapacity. Tropical-hardwood producer countries generally lack equivalent access to such technologies,which are a significant threat to the competitiveness of tropical hardwood products. This threat will beintensified by breakthroughs arising from the convergence of high-tech and capital-intensive areas ofresearch, such as biotechnology, nanotechnology, and information and communication technology, whichare having an increasing impact on product performance.

Innovation in non-wood alternative materials, such as cement/concrete products, steel, aluminum,plastics and, to a lesser extent, ceramic tiles, glass, gypsum, and natural stone, is also driving substitutionin a number of applications. The range of applications in which non-wood materials are in competitionwith tropical hardwoods includes:

• Construction (e.g., framing, partitions, roof members, window frames, door frames, and civil works)• Interior applications (e.g., quality furniture, flooring, skirting, ceilings, staircases, handrails, balusters,

doors, windows, quality joinery, paneling, architraves, kitchen joinery, and worktops)• Exterior applications (e.g., garden furniture, doors, windows, decking, balusters, storefront frames, and

staircases)• Industrial applications (e.g., floors, partitions, acoustic barriers, sea defenses, transport, fencing, and

tool handles)

Wood products, particularly tropical hardwoods, are generally relatively highly priced commodities inthe construction sector compared with non-wood substitutes. Wood-based products also have particularperformance constraints compared with other materials but performwell on issues such as energy content,aesthetics, thermal insulation, durability, and health.


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A number of environmental policy measures introduced by consumer countries are also threateningthe competitiveness of tropical wood producers (see Chapter, “▶ Forest Products Market Policy Issues”),given the comparatively small volume of certified tropical wood products available in internationalmarkets. However, certification also presents an opportunity to create newmarkets for tropical hardwoodsfrom well-managed forests (Oliver and Donkor 2010).

Further threats are presented by the low levels of investment in wood technology, marketing, andresearch and development in tropical producer countries. The preponderance of small- and medium-sizedenterprises (SMEs) in tropical wood processing threatened the competitiveness of tropical producersduring the global financial crisis; SMEs were exposed because of limitations to their access to finance,negotiating power and ability to respond quickly when markets recovered. The rationalization anddownsizing of many tropical wood-processing industries, however, is likely to have increased the overallcompetitiveness of the sector (Maplesden et al. 2013).

The growing trend towards the integration of the supply-chain network in the wood product sector (e.g.,IKEA and B&Q) has implications for the competitiveness of tropical wood producers, particularly giventhe interdependence and complexity of global and regional supply chains. Disruptions to supply chainscaused by large-scale natural disasters, conflict, political unrest, and terrorism have consequencesthroughout the supply-chain network, with many tropical producer countries categorized as “high risk”in corruption and general country competitiveness indices (World Economic Forum 2014; TransparencyInternational 2013)

Consumer Perceptions of Tropical Wood ProductsA number of surveys of consumer attitudes to wood-based products have been conducted in consumercountries (e.g., Rametsteiner et al. 2007; Toppinen et al. 2013). The general conclusions are that wood isappreciated for its qualities of warmth, naturalness, and beauty, as evidenced by the resources used byother competing sectors to mimic those qualities. While there are significant concerns about the perfor-mance of wood as a structural material, there is a strong preference for appearance wood products infurniture and other interior applications, although fashion trends dictate species and material preferencesto a certain extent. However, Rametsteiner et al. (2007) found marked differences in Europe in percep-tions of domestic wood compared with tropical wood, with consumers generally considering the use oftropical wood to be harmful to the environment.

Toppinen et al. (2013) noted the growing body of literature indicating that many present-day consumersperceive an additional benefit arising from the social and environmental sustainability of products theypurchase, possibly associated with suppliers’ corporate responsibility or corporate social responsibilitypolicies. However, purchasing decisions are complex, and consumers consistently state that environmen-tal attributes are less important than other attributes, such as quality, price, and design.

Surveys indicate that consumers have negative opinions of tropical hardwoods, based on limitedknowledge. There is a low level of awareness of the concept of sustainable forest management (SFM)and its application in tropical countries, and a general assumption that using more wood means that moredeforestation will occur. Environmental certification is perceived to be more important for tropical woodproducts than for nontropical wood, with consumers more willing to pay premiums for high-quality andspecialist assortments, particularly tropical wood (Rametsteiner et al. 2007).

It is widely acknowledged that specifiers (architects and designers) generally have negative perceptionsof the environmental attributes of tropical wood products but more positive perceptions of their naturaltechnical performance and aesthetics.

Although a few trade associations (such as the Malaysian Timber Council) and other organizations areactively involved in promoting tropical wood products, the tropical wood sector needs to devoteconsiderable resources to marketing the significant strengths of tropical wood products in order to


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maintain and grow market share. The key elements of a generic, design-led promotion campaign arediscussed in Oliver and Donkor (2010). On a positive note, the considerable efforts now being undertakento achieve forest certification in tropical producer countries could overcome some of the negative publicperceptions of tropical hardwoods. In addition, the further development and wider application of life cycleanalysis could benefit the tropical hardwood industry and send strong positive marketing messages toconsumers.

Production, Consumption and Trade Trends

Industrial Roundwood (Logs)Tropical industrial roundwood (log) production amounted to 176.9 million m3 in 2012, with over 60 % ofproduction in the Asian region1 (Table 1). Four countries – Brazil, India, Indonesia, andMalaysia – accounted for about two-thirds of production. Brazil accounts for the bulk (77 %) ofproduction in the Latin America/Caribbean region, almost all of which is consumed domestically.Indonesia produces one-quarter of the world’s tropical logs and the Asia-Pacific region about 59 % ofglobal production. Tropical log production has been affected by historical overexploitation of forests andby SFM initiatives that have reduced the volume of wood available for commercial harvest.

More detailed information on tropical log production is available in FAO (2011), (2014), andITTO (2013).

Some of the major trends in the tropical log trade are as follows (ITTO 2013):

• A significant proportion of the global trade in tropical primary wood products (logs, sawnwood, veneer,and plywood) is concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2012, the major directions of the tropicallog trade were from Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Solomon Islands to China and from Malaysiaand Myanmar to India (Fig. 8). African exporters such as the Republic of the Congo, Cameroon, andMozambique were also important suppliers of tropical logs to China.

• The major directions of trade in tropical logs have changed considerably in the last 20 years. Many ofthe major producer countries have introduced log export restrictions (see Chapter, “▶ Forest ProductsMarket Policy Issues”), and the bulk of import demand has shifted from Japan, and to a lesser extent EUcountries, to mainly China and India. Japan’s demand for tropical logs, which were used predominantlyin Japan’s plywood industry, declined markedly following the growth in imports of low-pricedIndonesian plywood, with which Japan’s tropical plywood industry was unable to compete.

• China and India have strengthened their positions as the dominant tropical log importers, accountingfor over 86% of world imports in 2012, compared with 22% in 1995 (when Japan dominated the trade)and 46 % in 2000.

• China has diversified its tropical log sources (Table 2), but a significant proportion is from countriesconsidered to be “high risk” in terms of legality documentation, particularly Myanmar, PNG, and theSolomon Islands. This poses significant challenges for China’s export-oriented wood-processingindustries, particularly the wooden furniture industry.

1There are limitations in the quality of official data for tropical industrial roundwood (and sawnwood) production becausemany tropical producer countries lack systems to measure both forest and industrial outputs, while many consumer countriesare unable or unwilling to distinguish the processing of tropical timber from all timber processing. Production data is oftenbased on estimates, and the dominance of small- and medium-sized enterprises in the tropical wood processing industriesmeans that production figures from such numerous, small-scale operations are likely to be underestimated. Apparent domesticconsumption figures are also suspect as they are derived from “production plus imports minus exports.”


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Table 2 China imports of tropical logs, by country of origin, 2006–2013 (1,000 m3)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

PNG 2,064.3 2,341.0 2,229.7 1,659.4 2,477.8 2,799.0 2,581.0 2,751.8

Solomon Islands 774.8 1,049.2 1,158.9 1,124.4 1,454.7 1,774.4 1,916.3 2,035.9

Myanmar 1,026.9 718.0 490.3 370.9 432.9 687.6 616.7 970.1

Congo 367.0 331.4 394.8 436.3 485.6 621.0 614.2 502.1

Cameroon 299.2 249.6 201.3 246.4 400.1 333.7 393.0 435.1

Equatorial Guinea 381.0 487.9 249.4 22.5 217.5 300.7 351.2 431.4

Malaysia 1,412.4 1,331.4 816.7 721.8 955.6 551.5 436.7 386.5

Mozambique 126.5 211.6 157.3 121.5 233.1 230.0 322.5 346.4

Lao PDR 31.2 57.0 31.0 44.6 67.4 107.9 109.7 205.3

Ghana 0.0 0.6 1.4 2.5 18.1 39.7 125.0 132.4

Gambia 0.6 13.7 0.0 0.1 19.2 84.8 149.2 123.3

DRC 4.3 6.9 24.0 18.1 45.0 67.0 88.2 83.4

CAR 22.4 13.9 33.7 30.4 56.7 64.2 84.4 77.1

Liberia 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 47.8 153.0 63.0

Vietnam 138.8 216.6 57.4 22.3 41.4 134.7 87.5 52.8

Guyana 64.1 61.8 50.4 19.3 50.6 49.6 40.0 45.5

Togo 0.7 17.5 53.3 58.8 93.7 74.7 61.8 39.2

Guinea 0.0 0.1 3.6 3.9 8.6 8.0 10.6 15.8

Gabon 958.0 1,149.9 1,076.8 1,103.0 738.6 22.7 36.2 14.6

Indonesia 35.8 22.4 13.5 8.3 6.8 17.2 15.7 11.8

Panama 0.8 1.5 4.1 2.2 5.9 20.1 15.0 7.3

Source: World Trade AtlasNote: PNG Papua New Guinea, Lao PDR Lao People’s Democratic Republic, DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo, CARCentral African Republic

Table 3 Tropical sawnwood balance in tropical producer regions (Asia-Pacific, Latin America/Caribbean, and Africa)(million m3)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012

Asia-Pacific

Production 23.23 21.43 19.19 18.67 18.36 18.00

Imports 2.68 1.56 2.67 2.02 2.65 2.86

Exports 4.79 4.41 6.60 7.49 5.89 5.75



Production 16.31 15.82 16.74 18.74 18.86 18.97

Imports 0.08 0.09 0.14 0.24 0.27 0.16

Exports 1.17 1.11 2.21 1.28 1.65 1.08


Africa

Production 2.10 4.25 4.68 5.21 5.52 5.49

Imports – 0.01 – 0.02 – 0.01

Exports 1.93 1.72 1.74 2.13 2.19 1.74




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• In contrast to China, whose tropical log imports constitute only 18 % of total log imports, India’simports are predominantly tropical hardwood (54 %), with a strong preference for teak.

• Tropical log exporters in the African region have shifted their focus to markets outside the EU,particularly China and to a lesser extent India.

• A number of tropical producer countries – particularly Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of theCongo, Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, Honduras, Malaysia, PNG, the Solomon Islands, and Thailand – export asignificant proportion of their primary wood product production. China and India acted as buffers fortropical exporters during the global financial crisis, when log demand contracted sharply in Westerneconomies in response to a steep contraction in construction activity and consumer spending.

SawnwoodThe Asia-Pacific and Latin America/Caribbean regions accounted for 42 % and 45 %, respectively, ofworld tropical sawnwood production in 2012 (Table 3). Brazil, the largest country producer, accounted for85 % of Latin America/Caribbean’s tropical sawnwood production, almost all of which was consumeddomestically. Although many producer countries in the African region have introduced log exportrestrictions and requirements for further processing, the region accounts for only a small proportion ofworld sawnwood production.

Some of the major trends in the tropical sawnwood trade are as follows:

∗ THAILAND-CHINA 1.6 MALAYSIA-SINGAPORE 0.2 MALAYSIA-PHILIPPINES 0.2 MALAYSIA-CHINA 0.2 MALAYSIA-THAILAND 0.6 MALAYSIA-UAE 0.1 MALAYSIA-YEMEN 0.1 MALAYSIA-TAIWAN P.O.C. 0.1 PHILIPPINES-CHINA 0.1

PERU-ECUADOR 0.1

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Fig. 9 Major trade flows, tropical sawnwood, 2012 (million m3) (Sources: ITTO Statistics Database, COMTRADE. Note:Major directions of trade, as recorded by major exporting countries)


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• The tropical sawnwood trade is dominated by trade within the Asian region, with China and Thailandthe major importers and Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, and Thailand the major exporters (Fig. 9).

• China’s tropical sawnwood imports grew substantially in the 4 years to 2013, amounting to over fourmillion m3 in that year. The rise in tropical sawnwood imports has been in response to log exportrestrictions in tropical and temperate producer regions (particularly Russia and Gabon) and growingdemand for sawnwood in China’s furniture and flooring industries and because imported tropicalsawnwood has become more cost competitive than tropical sawnwood manufactured in China.Imported tropical sawnwood is mainly used in furniture, interior decoration, and home improvementand is more sensitive to the export market environment than is softwood sawnwood, which is usedprimarily in domestic construction.

• Malaysia has a diverse range of tropical sawnwood export markets, which has been a key exportstrategy for Malaysian suppliers. Of note has been a developing trade with Middle Eastern markets,which have no significant restrictions or barriers to wood product imports.

• Thailand has more restricted market destinations for its exports, which are overwhelmingly to China.Thailand’s tropical sawnwood exports are predominantly of lower-cost, plantation-grown rubberwood.

• Thailand is also a significant importer of mainly structural tropical sawnwood from Cambodia, LaoPDR, andMalaysia. In Lao PDR, for example, high demand for sawnwood from neighboring countriessuch as Thailand and Vietnam, and a suspected high incidence of illegal logging and poor governance,means that the Lao PDR trade is likely to be underestimated.

• The EU (particularly the Netherlands, Belgium, France, the UK, Italy, Spain, and Germany) hastraditionally been an important market for tropical sawnwood, particularly from the African region.Supplies have increasingly been diverted to China and other emergingmarkets, however, in response toongoing weak demand caused by the economic uncertainty arising from the euro area crisis and marketuncertainty regarding the implementation of the EU Timber Regulation.

• There are frequent discrepancies in tropical sawnwood trade statistics, with some major anomalies inimporting and exporting countries’ official figures (Fig. 10).

Fig. 10 Tropical sawmill and secondary wood-processing plant, Brazil (Photo: Gerson Baldasso)


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Wood-Based PanelsPlywood is the major tropical wood-based panel product, although its production and trade has declinedsince the 1990s, when tropical plywood dominated the trade in wood-based panels. Some of the majorproduction trends include:

• A shift in the major production bases from Japan (which was the dominant plywood producer andimporter of tropical logs until the early 1990s) and Indonesia to Malaysia and China.

• The decreasing availability of large-diameter, peeler-quality logs for plywood production.• Significant changes in production technology, allowing the use of lower-quality substrates to produce

combi-plywood products.• Rising production costs, particularly prior to the global financial crisis, as the costs of glue, peeler logs,

and labor (particularly in China in recent years) increased considerably.• The availability of panel substitute products such as softwood plywood, birch and poplar plywood,

OSB, LVL, I-beams, wood–plastics composites, and veneeredMDF, which have reducedmarket share,put downward pressure on tropical hardwood plywood prices and put severe pressure on producers tocut costs.

Japan’s plywood industry has transitioned from tropical to softwood plywood production. Technolog-ical developments have enabled the production of Russian larch and Japanese sugi and larch veneers, andthe Japanese market has become more accepting of softwood plywood products.

Tropical plywood production is predominantly (over 85 %) in the Asia-Pacific region, with Indonesiaand Malaysia accounting for over 65 % of production in all tropical producer countries. China is now theworld’s largest producer of tropical (and nontropical) plywood, accounting for 56 % of world plywoodproduction and 33 % of world tropical plywood production in 2012. Most tropical plywood produced inChina is consumed domestically, although 30% of production is estimated to be exported indirectly in theform of furniture and other SPWPs (Xiaoyu 2011) (Table 4).

Table 4 Tropical plywood balance, tropical producer regions (Asia-Pacific, Latin America/Caribbean, and Africa)(million m3)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012

Asia-Pacific

Production 13.62 14.38 11.51 10.49 10.12 10.19

Imports 0.14 0.06 0.18 0.19 0.19 2.65

Exports 12.15 11.31 7.14 6.05 4.93 5.47



Production 1.26 1.27 1.74 0.91 0.87 0.90

Imports 0.01 0.62 0.22 0.18 0.18 0.18

Exports 0.73 0.80 0.99 0.24 0.18 0.15


Africa

Production 0.22 0.37 0.43 0.41 0.43 0.46

Imports – – 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Exports 0.08 0.20 0.14 0.22 0.18 0.17




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The tropical plywood trade is dominated by relatively few major players (Fig. 11). Japan is thedominant importer, although import levels have halved since the 1990s. The Republic of Korea, TaiwanProvince of China, the USA, and the EU countries are important importers. US imports declined sharplyin 2009 because of the collapse in the housing market there. US imports have also been affected by formalinvestigations of the legality of wood products fromChina (see Chapter “▶ Forest ProductsMarket PolicyIssues, Trade-related Policies”); the perceived risks to importers of noncompliance with the Lacey Act,which requires importers to ensure that their imports of plant products, including tropical plywood, arefrom legal sources; the introduction of stringent control measures on formaldehyde content in compositeboard products (see Chapter “▶ Standards and Transport, Formaldehyde Emission Standards”); andincreased demand for green building products.

Paper, Paperboard, and Wood PulpThe global pulp, paper, and paperboard industries have been challenged in recent years by falling or staticdemand in Europe, Japan, and North America; overcapacity in several pulp, paper, and paperboardgrades; growing competition from global media, including Internet-based advertising, e-books, ande-readers; and consequent reductions in hard-copy newspaper circulations and page counts.

There has been a significant rationalization of pulp and paper capacity in developed countries but anongoing expansion in Asian pulp, paper, and paperboard capacity. This is especially so in China, althoughtropical Asian countries – particularly Indonesia – have also become major producers and exporters. TheLatin American/Caribbean region has had significant capital investment, particularly in pulp productioninfrastructure.

MALAYSIA-TAIWAN P.O.C. 0.2MALAYSIA-REP.OF KOREA 0.2INDONESIA-TAIWAN P.O.C. 0.2INDONESIA-REP.OF KOREA 0.1

MALAYSIA-USA 0.1

MALAYSIA-U.K 0.1

MALAYSIA-EGYPT 0.1

MA

LAY

SIA

-JAP

AN

1.5

IND

ON

ES

IA-JA

PA

N 1

INDONESIA-SAUDI ARABIA 0.1

INDONESIA-USA 0.1

Fig. 11 Major trade flows, tropical plywood, 2012 (million m3) (Source: COMTRADE. Note: Major directions of trade, asrecorded by major exporting countries)


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Tables 5 and 6 show production, trade, and apparent consumption of pulp, paper, and paperboard intropical regions.

Brazil has invested heavily in the production of Eucalyptus kraft pulp, printing and writing papergrades, tissue, and other paper-related products. Brazil’s production of pulp, paper, and paperboard

Table 6 Wood pulp balance in tropical producer regions (million tonnes)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012

Asia

Production 3.87 6.95 8.59 10.08 10.90 10.98

Imports 1.76 1.93 2.37 3.22 3.56 3.86

Exports 0.69 1.77 2.69 2.71 3.15 3.44



Production 9.48 11.53 15.06 20.96 21.46 21.80

Imports 1.53 1.39 1.70 1.90 1.97 1.94

Exports 3.78 5.10 8.40 13.32 13.98 14.27


Africa

Production 2.42 2.81 2.63 2.72 2.71 2.63

Imports 0.27 0.30 0.33 0.51 0.54 0.56

Exports 0.73 1.10 1.02 1.09 1.10 0.98


Source: FAOSTATNote: Asia includes Southeast Asia and South Asia. Latin America/Caribbean includes Caribbean, Central America, and SouthAmerica, as defined by FAOSTAT

Table 5 Paper and paperboard balance, tropical producer regions (million tonnes)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012

Asia

Production 10.71 16.58 19.71 30.40 30.76 31.65

Imports 3.84 4.81 7.56 9.33 10.07 10.24

Exports 1.47 3.94 4.64 6.11 6.03 5.77



Production 12.49 14.83 18.53 19.77 20.18 20.22

Imports 4.18 6.56 7.21 8.85 9.06 9.05

Exports 1.82 1.75 3.23 3.37 3.36 3.13


Africa

Production 2.68 3.51 3.78 3.82 3.48 3.72

Imports 1.39 1.73 3.23 4.08 4.46 4.04

Exports 0.54 0.63 1.07 0.88 0.70 0.63


Source: FAOSTATNote: Asia includes Southeast Asia and South Asia. Latin America/Caribbean includes the Caribbean, Central America, andSouth America, as defined by FAOSTAT


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reached 24.1 million tonnes in 2012, with pulp production totaling 13.9 million tonnes, of which over60 % was exported (UNECE 2013). Nearly two-thirds of printing and writing paper production isconsumed domestically.

Indonesia was the largest tropical country exporter of paper and paperboard in 2013 (Table 7), althoughthe country is also a significant importer and consumer of paper and paperboard. About half of Indonesia’spaper and paperboard exports, by value, comprised uncoated paper and paperboard; coated papers,sanitary and household papers, and carbon papers were also important export items (COMTRADE).Indonesia’s major paper and paperboard export markets in 2013 were, in descending order by value,Japan, Malaysia, the USA, Vietnam, and the Philippines, although Indonesia also exports to a diversenumber of other Asia-Pacific destinations as well as the Middle East.

The Indonesian pulp-and-paper industry has been heavily criticized in the past by nongovernmentalorganizations such as Greenpeace, the Rainforest Action Network, and the World Wildlife Fund for thewidespread deforestation occurring in Sumatra and the replacement of natural forests in some areas withlarge plantations of Eucalyptus and Acacia species. The effects of deforestation on indigenous peoplesand community groups have generated additional concerns (Forest Peoples Programme 2013).

Secondary Processed Wood ProductsSPWPs comprise wooden furniture and parts, builders’woodwork and joinery (which includes windows,doors, flooring, and paneling), wooden moldings, and “other” SPWPs (comprising a wide variety ofproducts such as picture frames, tableware, kitchenware, and other small wooden items). Monitoring theproduction and trade of tropical SPWP items is inherently difficult because most SPWP items are notclassified by species in the Harmonized System (HS) of code classification (COMTRADE). SPWP itemsmay be composite products composed of a combination of species and products, such as veneer, MDF,plywood, sawnwood, and a variety of non-wood products such as plastics and steel.

Although data on the production volume of tropical SPWPs are unavailable, country-level anecdotalinformation (ITTOMIS) suggests that China and Vietnam are now the major tropical SPWP manufactur-ing “hubs,” while Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are also important tropical producers using signif-icant volumes of plantation timbers, including rubberwood (notably inMalaysia and Thailand), plantationteak (notably in Indonesia), and acacia (notably in Malaysia and Indonesia) (Oliver 2013). EU wooden

Table 7 Paper, paperboard, and wood pulp exports by major tropical country producers, 2012–2013

(US$ million)

2012 2013

Paper and paperboard

Indonesia 3,994 3,836

Brazil 2,017 2,030

Mexico 1,448 n/a

Malaysia 1,094 1,048

Wood pulp

Brazil 4,706 5,186

Indonesia 1,547 1,846

Thailand 74 n/a

Mexico 73 n/a

Malaysia 42 45

Source: COMTRADENote: n/a not available


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joinery and furniture manufacturers (particularly Italy and France) have also produced significantquantities of furniture and joinery products from tropical primary wood product imports.

Some important trends in SPWP manufacturing and trade are as follows:

• The dominant markets for SPWPs are the developed economies – notably the USA, EU countries, andJapan. Global demand for wooden furniture and joinery products follows trends in housing starts andconsumer spending in those countries.

• The USA is the largest country importer of SPWPs, accounting for about one-quarter of world imports,predominantly wooden furniture and parts.

• Structural changes have been occurring in the furniture and joinery industries in many EU countriesbecause imported products from Asia have become more cost competitive in many market niches.

• China’s domination of the SPWP trade has been rapid, particularly in wooden furniture and parts,which is the largest category of SPWPs and accounts for 60 % of the global SPWP trade by value(Fig. 12). China’s wooden furniture (and other SPWP) production is based on imported raw materialinputs from tropical and nontropical suppliers.

• Chinese producers have been moving up the value chain to produce higher-value products; rising inputcosts have resulted in the relocation of some manufacturing capacity to lower-cost producer countriessuch as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

• Vietnam’s production of wooden furniture is reliant on imports of raw materials; it is now the largesttropical exporter of SPWPs (Fig. 13). Vietnam’s export market destinations are the most diverse of thetropical exporters, comprising over 100 countries, although the major markets are the USA, the EU,and Japan.

Price TrendsTropical wood price trends vary widely depending on the market subsector and end-use activity in theparticular subsector. Some of the other major price trends are as follows:

• Tropical log and sawnwood prices have shown high volatility since 2008, particularly during the globalfinancial crisis in 2008 and 2009, with fluctuating supply-side and demand-side factors influencingprices. These marked price swings had not been seen since the Asian financial crisis in 1997–1998.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Val

ue (

US

$ m

illio

n)

US Japan UKAustralia Malaysia CanadaUnited Arab Emirates Hong Kong

Fig. 12 China’s exports of wooden furniture and parts, 2000–2013, by major importing country (Source: World Trade Atlas.Note: Wooden furniture and parts include the following HS codes: 9401.61; 9401.69; 9403.30; 9403.40; 9403.50; 9403.60)


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• Tropical log, sawnwood, and plywood prices rose significantly between 2007 and mid-2008, coincid-ing with a period of increasing global demand and as supplies of tropical logs became more restricted.Freight rates also pushed up prices, with maritime freight rates reaching historic highs in early 2008.

• From mid-2008, tropical log, sawnwood, and plywood prices underwent a major reversal as demand-side factors became dominant, with prices plunging until early 2009, when the global financial crisisreached its height. Freight costs also declined, relieving upward pressure on prices from rising freightcosts, which were evident in the precrisis period.

• In 2009, prices fluctuated but remained relatively low, rising periodically as importers restocked theirinventories following low purchasing activity and in the light of relatively buoyant demand in Chinaand India.

• In 2010, log and sawnwood prices increased rapidly as demand remained strong in India (forinfrastructure projects) and China (as a replacement for Russian logs and as demand picked up inChina’s SPWP export markets) and as supply was disrupted following the introduction of log exportrestrictions in Gabon and political unrest in Côte d’Ivoire, in addition to unseasonal weather conditionsin Malaysia. Prices stabilized somewhat in 2012 and 2013, although they still varied in response tofluctuating demand in the EU and Asian markets.

• There are significant price differentials between tropical hardwood logs and temperate hardwood andsoftwood logs, reflecting the quality and increasing scarcity of tropical logs compared with otherspecies.

Fig. 13 Major trade flows, SPWPs from tropical producer countries, 2012 (US$ million) (Sources: ITTO Statistics Database,COMTRADE. Note: Major directions of trade, as recorded by major tropical producer countries. Trade flows from China, aproportion of which may include wood products of tropical origin, are not included in this map)


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Participation of Society in Forest Product Markets

National Market StructuresWhile formal wood sectors in many tropical producer countries have focused primarily on export markets,informal markets – which have been described as a “diversion of economic transactions beyond the reachor boundaries of state and formal economic structures” – are relatively common in tropical producercountries and may account for a significant proportion of wood use. Informal markets operate where theformal wood sector is unable to meet domestic/local wood products demand. In the African region, forexample, the informal sector has become dominant in meeting the needs of the local market; typically itinvolves a number of informal wood product traders and related operators, such as sawmillers, carpenters,and illegal chainsaw operators (ITTO 2010).

Informal markets, which are predominantly artisanal in nature, are characterized by a diverse range ofproducts and activities; unrecorded, though open, transactions; a lack of regulation and the prevalence ofnoncontractual relationships; ease of entry and often marginal operators; and the coexistence of waged,partially waged, and family forms of labor. These characteristics make it difficult to track the activities ofoperators and to estimate the size of the market. Informal wood product markets mean a lack of income fornational governments and unfair competition with the formal sector. The lack of transparency andcapacity to regulate the informal market makes it difficult to develop sustainable wood product valuechains (Fig. 14).

In the Congo Basin, for example, wood processing through to the finished product is carried out mainlyin the informal sector, which is not governed by the same rules of taxation, traceability, work specifica-tions, and requirements as the formal industrial sector. The informal sector is considered to be extremelycompetitive with the formal sector, given that large-scale forest enterprises are only marginally interestedin local markets and the business environment is unfavorable for investment. ATIBT et al. (2013)suggested an approach to tackle the problem of integrating the formal and informal economies in theCongo Basin, which may also be applicable in other countries. It involves developing a wood-processingstrategy with four priority areas: “a firm political will and a favourable business climate; facilitated accessto inputs; creation of a structured value chain; and the structuring of profitable formal markets.”

Indigenous and Ethnic Minority IssuesSchemes to market payments for environmental services (PES), such as REDD+, have the potential toenhance the incomes of local communities in tropical producer countries. However, the lack of

Fig. 14 Small door manufacturing enterprise, Ghana (Photo: Douglas Patti)


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involvement of indigenous groups and local communities in the implementation of such schemes hasraised concerns about the fair distribution of potential benefits. At the heart of such concerns is the issue ofclarity of forest tenure and ownership, which has long been associated with deforestation and forestdegradation. Unclear or contested tenure means that the contracts and benefits associated with PESschemes may accrue to relatively few large forest owners, local and national elites, and non-foreststakeholders (Angelsen 2009). Less-powerful claimants, such as indigenous and other minority groups,may lose out. In many tropical developing countries, tenure is not clear and is subject to dispute, and theissues of customary practices and indigenous rights are not addressed consistently. People living in forestscontinue to claim customary rights, even though states often do not recognize such claims to vast areas offorest. Indigenous groups and other traditional forest dwellers often reject state control over forests theyview as their own (Fig. 15).

Despite these issues, Blaser et al. 2011 noted that there had been many recent developments in foresttenure and ownership in response to a general movement to involve local communities more closely indecisions about the future of the forests, moves to address past injustices, and the realization that cleartenure is a prerequisite for SFM. The trend towards greater ownership by indigenous and other localcommunities is most pronounced, by far, in Latin America and the Caribbean. However, in most countriesin West and Central Africa, the state has claimed legal title since the colonial period, although thecustomary ownership of the same areas dates back centuries. This disconnection between the legal andcustomary systems in Africa is a hindrance to SFM and restricts the capacity of local communities topursue development opportunities. In Asia, the overwhelming majority of forest is owned by the state,although almost all forest is under indigenous or community ownership in the Pacific Island states of Fiji,PNG, and Vanuatu.

Another issue restricting the ability of indigenous and minority groups to realize the market benefits ofPES schemes is the complexity of financial transactions involved in global carbon trade, which reducesthe ability of local communities to participate.

The widespread development of pulp-and-paper and oil palm plantations in Indonesia andMalaysia hasgenerated conflicts with a number of indigenous and community groups, particularly when forestconcession areas have been allocated for plantation establishment with limited consultation with forestdwellers and community groups. The resulting deforestation has generated considerable conflict andresulted in the loss of local communities’ livelihoods, particularly where tenure rights are unclear (ForestPeoples Programme 2013).

Fig. 15 Forest dweller, Guyana (Photo: ITTO)


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