Forest Fire Detection in the

Wildland-Urban Interface

James Barnier

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources

Division of Forestry

FERIC Wildfire Detection Workshop

March 25 – 27, 2003

Texas

California Utah

Montana

Arizona

Idaho

Nevada

Oregon

Colorado

Iowa

Kansas

Wyoming

New Mexico

IllinoisOhio

Missouri

Florida

Nebraska

Minnesota

Georgia

Oklahoma

Washington

Alabama

South Dakota

Arkansas

Maine

Wisconsin

North Dakota

Virginia

New York

Indiana

Louisiana

Michigan

Mississippi

Kentucky

Tennessee

Pennsylvania

North Carolina

South Carolina

West Virginia

Michigan

Alaska

Vermont

Maryland

New Jersey

New HampshireMassachusetts

Connecticut

Alaska

Alaska

Delaware

Alaska

Alaska

QUEBEC

ONTARIO

ALBERTAMANITOBA

BRITISH COLUMBIA

NUNAVUT

SASKATCHEWAN

NORTHWEST TERRITORIES

NEWFOUNDLAND

NEW BRUNSWICK

YUKON TERRITORIES

Several Detection Options:

• Public reporting

• Fixed lookouts

• Ground patrols

• Air patrols

• Lightning detectors

• Satellite imagery

911 Availability

Choice of a Detection Method:

• Risk

• Hazard

• Value

Research Objective:

• Evaluate the performance and cost-effectiveness of public and organized wildfire detection methods in the wildland-urban interface

The Study Area:

Forest covertypes

Maple-Birch26%

Aspen-Birch29%

Spruce-Fir6%

Pine9%

Other30%

Socio-economic importance

• 90 thousand direct jobs

• $3.3 billion in wages

• $5.4 billion in value added

• 2+ million hectares of parks and conservation areas

• Over 8 million visitors annually

Settlement patterns

• 1.5 million residents

• 16 persons per square kilometre

• $45.8 billion in property values

Wisconsin’s detection system

• 95 fixed lookouts

• Public reporting

• Air patrols

• Ground patrols

Wildfire causes

Humans69%

Lightning2%

Railroads8%

Other21%

Suppression techniques

• Ground attack

• Type VII-X engines and/or Type IV engines with Type IV tractor plows

Analytical Methods:

• Cost-benefit analyses

• Tukey’s multiple comparison tests of performance measures

Costs & benefits of lookout detection

Costs Benefits

• Maintenance • Suppression Costs

• Labor • Property Damage

• Depreciation • Resource Values

• Deterrence Values

A benefit function

• Lookout benefits assessed relative to public detection

PLLPL VVCCB

Data:

• Two separate but linked datasets

• 4,690 individual fire reports (1987-1995)

• 711 addendum reports from (1992-1995)

A suppression cost model

• Model estimated for three covertype/ fuel model combinations

• Data included only those observations when lookouts were staffed

Results – Economic EffectivenessStatewide

• Protected 238 ha from wildfire damage

• Reduced suppression costs by $12 k

• Prevented $591 k in property damage

• Each $1 cost => $6 savings

A closer look

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

$ (0

00's

)

1992 1993 1994 1995

Year

Lookout Cost

Suppression Savings

Damage Prevention

• Protected 1.6 ha from wildfire

• Saved $86 in suppression costs

• Prevented $4,100 in property damage

Per fire

Administrative region

• Area saved and suppression costs saved were not statistically different

• Property damage prevented and number of wildfires detected differed significantly

A closer look

0

1

2

3

4

5C

-B R

atio

Area

Individual lookouts

• Lookout performance was highly variable

• Lookouts that detected more fires saved area and generated more benefits

A closer look

0

25

50

75

100

0 25 50 75 100

Percentage of Lookouts

Cu

mu

lati

ve P

erce

nt

Sightings

Area Saved

Total Savings

Results – Detection Performance:Wildfire sightings

Public62%

Air Patrol4%

Lookout34%

Detection lag

0

5

10

15

20

Min

ute

s

Public Lookout Air Patrol

AA

Final size

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Hec

tare

s

Public Lookout Air Patrol

A

B

AB

Suppression cost

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995

$

Public Lookout Air Patrol

A

B

AB

Conclusions:

• Fixed lookouts were cost-effective

• Majority of benefits attributable to property damage prevention

• Performance highly variable

Conclusions (Continued):

• Small number of lookouts generated majority of benefits

• Public and lookouts see different wildfires

• Opportunities exist to enhance wildfire detection