Forest Carbon Budgets, with examples, mainly with a US temperate forest perspective Linda S. Heath...
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Transcript of Forest Carbon Budgets, with examples, mainly with a US temperate forest perspective Linda S. Heath...
Forest Carbon Budgets, withexamples, mainly with a US temperate forest perspective
Linda S. Heath
USDA Forest Service
Northeastern Research Station
Durham, NH, USA
Many others: Jim Smith, Ken Skog,Rich Birdsey, FIA, etc.
Some global forest categories – a recent view
Biome Area (million km2)
Per area C change
(t C/ha/yr)
Total C pool
Tropical 17.5 0.37 553
Boreal 13.7 0.34 395
Temperate 10.4 0.34 292
Savannas/grassld
27.6 0.14 326
Source: Grace, 2004. Journal of Ecology 92:189-202.
Standards
• Standard, but relevant, definitions/protocols are important
-- carbon pools
-- vegetation types
-- land use
-- land cover
-- uncertainty
-- and others
Basic estimation of stocks and stock changes of forest C if you
have “field” inventory data • Carbon stock = Carbon/Area x Area (t ha) • C change = C stock at time 2 minus C
stock at time 1. Divide by length of period = carbon/year (t/ha/yr)
• Measured carbon stocks do not include harvests/disturbance in the sense the trees are no longer there. This amount must be added back in to the C estimate.
Another basic approach if you have field data
• Carbon change = Carbon change/Area x Area (t/ha/yr)
where carbon change may equal, for instance, biomass growth or soil respiration.
Outline/Some main points
• Carbon estimates needed for a number of reasons by decisionmakers at various scales
• Public involvement• Preferable if estimates are consistent,
transparent, verifiable, validated• Methods depend heavily on traditional forest
inventory/modeling system for projections• May need long-term projections (50 yr), decadal
trends rather than precise annual estimates
Current Approach for US Forest Carbon Budget – Part 1
• We use USDA Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) inventory data coupled with a modeling approach.
• Data from many field plots, collected by FIA beginning in 1950s. Area data from remote sensing.
• Several other relevant databases available.
Current Approach for US Forest Carbon Budget – Part 2
• Where FIA data are limited, develop/adopt models such as equations to estimate non-tree carbon, to a complex modeling system to track projections of C
• Model tracks carbon through harvested wood products (Skog and Nicholson 1998). Relies on data from US Dept of Commerce, other factors.
Large-scale field inventories include remote sensing for area estimation
For example, sample “points” located systematically over the “effective area” and land cover determined at the “point”
FIA Program Inventory Evolution
• In recent past, FIA periodically (5-14 years) measured all plots in a state in a 1-2 year timeframe.
• FIA recently adopted annualized inventory, with a subset of plots measured throughout the state each year. (5-7 years).
• Soil and litter layer carbon measured on subset of plots in new system.
National GHG reporting to UNFCCC
•Annual Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and Sinks Inventories (1990-present)
(US Environmental Protection Agency)- All sectors, we do forest estimates•Every 5 years, summary national communication- State Dept.
Public involvement
US forest C nonsoil stock change, 2003
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Mt
C/y
r Products
Biomass
Dead/FF
DRAFT: Smith and Heath for 2005 EPA GHG Inventory
12% of total U.S. CO2 emissions
Net C sequestration, Land Use Change and Forestry
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001
Car
bo
n (
Mt/
yr)
Lfill Yard Trim.Ag SoilsUrban TreesForest ProductsForest Ecosy.
14% of U.S. CO2 emissions
Source: EPA (2003), includes all effects. All are net sinks. No non-CO2
Other Nat’l GHG inventory reports
• Energy Information Administration (annual)
• USDA (first report 2003)
INCLUDES DETAIL AT STATE-LEVEL
Global Forest Assessment
• FAO• Estimates for1990, 2000, 2005•Consistent withvolumes, otherforest attributes
• IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (1994-1996) Reference, Workbook, Reporting
• IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (2001-2003)
• IPCC Revision Guidelines (2004-2006) ? volumes. AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use
Nations need to be consistent with the methodology in the guidelines
Conform to Everimproving International Reporting Guidelines
Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators of Sustainability
Criterion 5: Forest contribution to global carbon cycles
• Forest ecosystem C stocks & biomass pools (area x C/area)
• Forest C stock change
• Carbon in harvested wood
products
See National Report on Sustainable Forests—2003. FS-766
Conterminous US Forest C pools (Mt)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1953 1963 1977 1987 1997
Year
Car
bo
n p
oo
l (M
t)
Abovegrd live tree
Abovegrd standingdead tree
Understory
Down dead wood (inclstumps)
Forest floor
Belowground live tree(roots)
Belowground deadwood carbon
Indicator 26
Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases, US
(project level) • Established by Section 1605(b) of the Energy
Policy Act of 1992• ANY US-related activity that reduces emissions
of GHGs or increases C fixation can be reported
• Long and short reporting form, downloadable from web site
• Guidelines currently being updated• Administered by DOE’s Energy Information
Administration
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/frntvrgg.html
Carbon OnLine Estimation web tool, (beta)
Forest sector modeling system for projections of C in managed U.S. forests, ca. 2000
• TAMM – Timber Markets (Haynes/Adams)• ATLAS – Timber Inventory (Mills)• AREA (Alig)• NAPAP – Paper Markets (Ince)• TEM – Productivity/climate link
(Joyce/McGuire)• FORCARB2 – Carbon (Heath/Smith)• WOODCARB – C in HWP
(Skog/Nicholson)
Projection modeling system – Forest
Projections – Economic side
Alternative-to-base scenario comparisonsfor US forest carbon, ca. 1995
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
C d
iffer
ence
(Mt)
TP $110m
TP $220m
Inc recycle
Rpd recycle
Managed forest lands, US, 2008-2012 Projected avg. annual C stock change
C taken up by trees in managed forests
381.9
C released by harvesting trees -276.0
Net C taken up in Soil 52.4
Net C taken up in Floor 12.8
Net C taken up in Understory 0.7
Net C accrued in live biomass & soil
171.8
C increase in logging residue 26.1
C in products in use 39.1
C in products in landfills 51.3
C stored in products & landfills 90.4
Net C removals related to managed forests
288 +/- 15% Mt/yr
LULUCF, Submission by State Department, 2000
A summary of things to consider
• Consistent definitions (land uses, vegetation)• Scale issues (need overall inventory, but track
projects) • Boundaries create holes or double counting
(urban forests, land use change)• Boundaries are needed for activity
implementation (such as political level like State)• Identify anthropogenic effects (such as intended
or unintended enhanced or reduced growth vs growth)
• Transparency, verification, accuracy, precision, cost
Forest Carbon Components - Definitions
Down dead wood
Aboveground biomass = Live
trees + understory
Standing dead trees
Soil organic matter (1m)
Litter (Forest floor)
Belowground biomass
PRODUCTS
IN USE
Lumber
Plywood
Other panels
Solid wood
Paper
Recycled Paper
LANDFILLS
Landfill wood
Landfill paper
EMISSIONS
Waste wood, decayed or burned with no energy captured
Decay of products & landfills
BURNED FOR ENERGY
Products sent to landfills, recycling, emissions
Categories of fates of harvested wood
Forest carbon stock trends, 1953-2050
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1953 1977 1997 2010 2030 2050
Fo
rest
car
bo
n (
Mt)
Forest floor
Understory
Belowground deadwood carbon
Down dead wood(incl stumps)
Abovegrd standingdead tree
Belowground livetree (roots)
Abovegrd live tree
Business as usual scenario projection, Haynes and others.
Contribution of forest products, Indicator 28
*Includes net imports*Includes net importsSource: Skog and Nicholson, 1998
0
50
100
150
200
Year
Ne
t c
arb
on
po
ol c
ha
ng
e p
er
yr
(Mt/
yr)
Emitted
Energy
Landfills
In use
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1997
Beginning year of annualized FIA data
Yearno data
19971998
199920002001200220032004
Compiled from FIA region web sites
Forest floor carbon accumulation, decay, and total, Southern pines: modeling approach for
older FIA data with missing pools
0
10
20
30
0 25 50 75
Years
Ca
rbo
n m
ass
de
nsi
ty (
Mg
/ha
)
Mixed or unknownage
SOURCE: Smith and Heath, 2002
accumulation
TOTAL
decomposition
Carbon OnLine Estimation web tool, (beta)
Projection modeling system – Forest
Projections – Economic side