Dr Rafael PopperResearch Fellow, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (UK)

Innovation Director & CEO, Futures Diamond (Czech Republic)rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk - rafael.popper@futuresdiamond.com

(with inputs from Prof Luke Georghiou, Vice-President for Research and Innovation)

Opportunities for Engagement

with the University of Manchester

& Futures DiamondUK Science and Innovation Delegation to ColombiaBogota-Medellin-Cali, Colombia (16-20 April 2012)

Since merger in 2004 – joining the elite

Fastest climber in Shanghai Ranking

50% increase in research grant income since 2004

3rd or 4th in RAE2008 – depending on measures used

Major improvement in total third-party investment in University intellectual property as evidenced by the dramatic increase in invention disclosures (up 56%) and licenses issued (up 123%);

Substantial transformation of the physical infrastructure of the campus with more than £400m invested through the largest capital programme ever undertaken by a UK university in modern times

Quality

Manchester: Britain's greatest university?It now has more working Nobel Laureates than any university in the country – and a history of discoveries that have shaped the world, writes Jonathan Brown - 9 October 2010

Some key themes

Dalton Nuclear Institute

Manchester Cancer Research Centre

Brooks World Poverty Institute

How we see the world

 Band 1 China, Europe, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea

and U.S.A.

 Band 2 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Gulf States, Israel, Mexico,

Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Taiwan.

 Band 3 Rest of the World

Challenge now to globalise

UK In-

dustry73%

EU Industry11%

Non-EU Industry

16%

Industrial research income

http://www.umip.com

Commercialisation

We aim to commercialise the intellectual property that we generate

Our motives To fulfil a public mission

(economic and social impact) by ensuring that our work is commercialised

To attract the best academics

To at least break-even on University cash invested

MIoIR Research Themes

1. Research themes

2. Technology strategy and innovation management

3. Services and organisational innovation

4. Science, innovation policy and strategic intelligence (foresight & horizon scanning)

5. Innovation and sustainability

6. Innovation, innovation systems and economic development

MIoIR Short Courses / Executive Education

1. Evaluation of Science and Technology Policies

2. Foresight: Horizon-scanning and Scenarios

3. Key Issues and Strategies

4. Science Technology and Innovation Policy

MBS Masters Courses1. MSc Innovation Management and Entrepreneurship2. MSc Accounting and Finance3. MSc Analytics: Operational Research and Risk Analysis4. MSc Chinese Business and Management5. MSc Corporate Communications and Reputation Management6. MSc Finance and Business Economics7. MSc Finance8. MBus Global Business Analysis9. MSc Healthcare Management10. MSc Human Resource Management and Industrial Relations11. MSc Human Resource Management and Comparative Industrial Relations

(International)12. MSc Information Systems: Business IT13. MSc Information Systems: e-business Technology14. MSc Information Systems: Organisations and Management15. MSc International Business and Management16. MSc Management17. MSc Managerial Psychology18. MSc Marketing19. MSc Operations, Project and Supply Chain Management20. MSc Organisational Psychology21. MSc Quantitative Finance: Financial Engineering22. MSc Quantitative Finance: Risk Management

MIoIR MSc Innovation Management & Entrepreneurship

Duration: 12 months full-time or 24 months part-time

Our masters looks at how:

new ideas become successful products

entrepreneurial expertise creates growth

companies harness knowledge to remain competitive

knowledge shapes society and vice versa

climate change can be tackled with new technology

to overcome the practical challenges associated with creating a new entrepreneurial venture

economies can be transformed through successive gales of creative destruction?

Top 10 actions for Universities & City-Regions as a Knowledge Capital (1 of 2) Georghiou & Cassingena Harper (2008)

1. Target and build-up centers of excellence in universities,

2. Bring business and HEI cultures closer by ensuring that business and academic leaders network and that this is matched by networking at middle rank.

3. The universities should develop concerted strategy for interacting with business networks and helping to create new networks where they do not exist. They should also be prepared to drop those that outlived their purpose.

4. The City-Regional Development Agency along with businesses and universities should consider mapping and evaluating their networks as first step to broader proactive strategy. More systematic use made of existing networks to get access to prime movers and shakers nationally and worldwide.

5. Universities provide physical space for networks at their entrepreneurial interfaces such as incubators.

Top 10 actions for Universities & City-Regions as a Knowledge Capital (2 of 2) Georghiou & Cassingena Harper (2008)

6. Engage locally based business education in developing leaders and managers equipped to work in networked knowledge capital.

7. Engage business in mentoring university staff in terms of understanding the business environment.

8. Focus on a knowledge-based inward investment strategy

9. Promote the ‘Knowledge Capital’10.Foster a ‘can-do’ culture

New Horizon Scanning concept(Popper, 2011)

Horizon Scanning (HS) is a structured and continuous activity aimed at monitoring, analysing and positioning (MAP) ‘frontier issues’ that are relevant for policy, research and strategic agendas. The types of issues mapped by HS include new/emerging: trends, policies, products, services, stakeholders, technologies, practices, behaviours, attitudes, ‘surprises’ (wild cards) and ‘seeds of change’ (weak signals).

NEF Issues New Emerging Frontier

MAP Monitoring Analysing Positioning

Agendas Policy Research Strategy

New Foresight concept(Popper, 2011)

Foresight is a systematic, participatory, prospective and policy-oriented process which, with the support of environmental and horizon scanning approaches, is aimed to actively engage key stakeholders into a wide range of activities anticipating, recommending and transforming (ART) technological, economic, environmental, political, social and ethical (TEEPSE) futures.

Key/Emerging/Frontier Issues Environmental

Scanning Horizon Scanning

ART Anticipating Recommending Transforming

TEEPSE futures Technological Economic Environmental Political Social Ethical

New Weak Signal concept(Popper, 2011)

Weak Signals are ambiguous events, often referred to as “seeds of change”, providing advance intelligence or “hints” about potentially important futures, e.g. Wild Cards, challenges and opportunities. Weak Signals lie in the eye of the beholder and are often influenced by the mental frameworks and subjective interpretations of individuals with limited information about emerging trends, developments or issues in a particular time and context. Their “weakness” is directly proportional to levels of uncertainty about their interpretations, importance and implications in the short-medium-to-long-term. Weak Signals are unclear observables warning us about the possibility of future “game changing” events.

Influenced by Mental frameworks Subjective

interpretations Limited information Time/Context

i3 uncertain issues Interpretation Importance Implications

Pseudo-evidence-based Unclear observables

Creativity-based Game changing

events

As a result, we need more systematic research & innovation efforts aimed

atmapping futures & interconnecting

knowledge

1st messageThere are many

“futures” around us…

weak signals

policiesvisions

scenarios

risks opportunities

innovationswild cards

strategies

Evolution of Mapping Futures Our Mapping Foresight work has

produced a vast amount of futures-related information unprecedented in the world

Our Mapping Foresight activities have been useful to understand foresight practices in Europe and other world regions

2005 2006 20072004

437 cases mapped

> 800 identified

767 cases mapped

> 1400 identified

100 cases mapped

846 cases mapped

> 1600identified

2008

> 1000 cases mapped

> 2000Identified

2009

Mapping Foresight

Key Lessons+

Findings

Introducingnetworking (SNA) and systemicanalyses

intoForesight

(Foresight Ark)

2010-2012

MappingForesight

&Forecasting

IntroducingWild Cards &Weak Signals

(WI-WE)systems

+Web 2.0 scanning

+Bottom-upEvaluation

InnovationSystems

Our Mapping Foresight report revealed the extensive use of interdisciplinary approaches in futures research

So we need more systematic activities aimed at

anticipating, recommending and transforming futures

2nd messageThere are many ways

of shaping our future…

impact assessment

horizon scanningforecasting

foresight

strategic planning visioning

NEW

Foresight & Horizon Scanning (FHS) Process

ManagementFramework

S.M

.A.R

.T.E

.R.

Polic

y/S

trate

gy

Cycle

(Pop

per, 2

011)

1 2

3 45

We often customise our methodologies, frameworks and systems to support a wide range of futures research & innovation

activities

3rd messageWe have some tools to

support foresight & horizon scanning…

NEW

MethodologyToolkit 44

meth

od

olo

gy

toolk

it

We use web 2.0 tools

iCommunity

iLibrary iOracle

iDelphi iBank iScaniNews

We combine various Horizon Scanning Strategies

Horizon ScanningStrategy 1

ILTD

Horizon ScanningStrategy 4

OLBU

Top-DownIn

war

d-Lo

okin

g Horizon ScanningStrategy 2

OLTD

Outw

ard-Looking

Horizon ScanningStrategy 3

ILBU

Bottom-Up

YOUR AREA OF CONCERN

We developed a fully-fledged framework

and a Web 2.0 system for mapping futures

http://www.futuresdiamond.com/

So far…

969 files for

unregistered users

vs.

1061 filesfor

iKnow members

1700+members

in 80

countries

By 9.2.2012

Since Feb 2011

New iKnowFutures proposal submitted to the EC

The iScan is an advanced

strategic intelligence, foresight and

horizon scanning search engine.

A kind of “Issues Google”

1,000+ issues mapped against EC FP7 Themes,

FRASCATI, NACE sectors andGrand Challenges

Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. abstractDescription7. manifestation8. potential implications9. importanceAnalysis10. filters11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. research-friendly

strategies18. RTD & STI policy

relevance

Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. Abstract7. likelihoodDescription8. typology9. importanceAnalysis10. early indicators11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. research-friendly

strategies18. RTD & STI policy

relevance

Mapping Weak SignalsMapping Wild Cards

18 criteria

Key facts and

figures

700+ respondents

60 60 900+ ISSUES.

4000+ assessments to

60 Wild Cards

2500+ assessments to

60 Weak Signals

Delphi results on September 2011

Wild Cards Delphi

Wild Cards headline navigation panel

Wild Cards headline navigation panel

Comments & full preview

Description & Desirability

Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking

Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU

Potential impacts on(in Your Country & the EU)

1- Physical infrastructure2 - Virtual infrastructure3 - Social welfare4 - Economy5 - Security6 - Policy & governance7 - Environment & ecosystems8 - STI systems

PreparednessERA relevance

Policy advice

Current signals indicating WI plausibilityFuture signals indicating WI plausibility

Analysis & Submission panels

Issueassessment

platform (iDelphi)

CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars

AGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change

CAP Administration rather than results a priority

SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security

NUC Development of new materials

ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world

SPA Privatisation of space flights

NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace

SSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade"

NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operating

CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars

CAP Administration rather than results a priority

SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security

ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform

ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world

ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications

AGR Bees be no more, less food than before

ENV Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis

ENV Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles

HEA Increasing Self-Medication

Weak Signa

ls

Top 10

Weak Signals for

UK

40%match

Suicide bombing in Stockholm

Growing privatisation of war

Nuclear power plants built in third world countriesScientists predict mobile phone viruses will become a serious threat

No strict global rules on nuclear security

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures

Social welfare Economy

Security Policy & governance

Environment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems

Sec Pol

Sec Pol Eco

Sec Eco STISec

SecEnv

Ph-I

EcoVi-I

SoW

http://www.futuresdiamond.com/

National Studies

Policy Alerts

Expert Interviews

ERA Toolkit

We promote knowledge transfer and

dissemination of key results

44 STI Policy Alerts => Research Recommendations

From farmer to consumer: Diversifying cropproduction and consumption.Overreliance on a few core crops (e.g. wheat) makes food production and consumption vulnerable to any type of disruption. Were a new wheat disease to develop it could have severe implications for food markets worldwide, which could have unforeseen consequences such as starvation, civil unrest and high food prices. There is a need to prepare for diversifying food production and consumption in order to avoid such consequences. Farmers need to be assisted in order to better diversify their crops and consumers should be made aware of a greater variety of food products…

New Horizon Scanning System delivering products & services which meet the needs of senior leaders and workforce planners in health & social care in the UK

Research Technology

DevelopmentNetwork

ed Innovati

on

The course is aimed at: sponsors of foresight projects foresight practitioners entrepreneurs senior managers company directors

Course fee The full residential fee is £1,950 per person fee includes all the course materials,

accommodation for five nights (June 26th to June 30th inclusive) and all meals.

Discount for early bookings and Colombian nationals This year we are offering a discount to participants whose application is received before

16th April. For applications received by this date the course fee will be reduced to £1,800 GBP. Colombian nationals will receive the same discount for registrations before 22nd May.

Registration Please use the downloadable registration form and return it to Lisa Gledhill by

fax to +44 161-275-0923 or email lisa.gledhill@mbs.ac.uk

Course directors Prof Ian Miles Dr Rafael Popper Dr Ozcan Saritas

Foresight: Exploring the Future, Shaping the Present

A course for sponsors and practitioners of foresight

25th June - 29th June 2012