Foresight for Our Future Society - NISTEP...

Foresight for OurFuture Society– Cooperative project betweenNISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)

Mikko Syrjänen, Yuko Ito, Eija Ahola (editors)

Tekes Review 242/2009

January 2009

vation

NISTEP Policy Study No 14

NISTEP

Foresight for Our Future SocietyCooperative project between NISTEP (Japan)

and Tekes (Finland)

NISTEPYuko Ito

Kumi OkuwadaTsuneo IchiguchiKuniko Urashima

Hiroshi KawamotoDaisuke Kanama

Tekes (editors)Mikko Syrjänen

Eija Ahola

Tekes Review 242/2009NISTEP Policy Study No 14

Helsinki 2009

About Tekes

Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation, is themain government financing and expert organization for research andtechnological development in Finland. Tekes finances industrial R&Dprojects as well as applied research projects in universities and researchinstitutes. Tekes especially promotes innovative, risk-intensive projects.

About NISTEP

NISTEP, the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, is a re-search institute affiliated with the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,Science and Technology (MEXT) in Japan. NISTEP mission is to leadplanning of government S&T policies by implementing S&T policy re-search with a comprehensive and long-term perspective. It provides re-search results to the society and supports firms and related organiza-tions in formulating strategy for R&D and innovation management.NISTEP is one of the central institutes with an international network inS&T policy research.

Copyright Tekes 2009. All rights reserved.This publication includes materials protected under copyright law, thecopyright for which is held by Tekes or a third party. The materialsappearing in publications may not be used for commercial purposes. Thecontents of publications are the opinion of the writers and do not representthe official position of Tekes. Tekes bears no responsibility for any possibledamages arising from their use. The original source must be mentionedwhen quoting from the materials.

ISSN 1797-7339ISBN 978-952-457-255-2

Cover image: Kalleheikki KannistoPage layout: DTPage Oy

www.dtpage.fi

Foreword

The world has required more benefits from innovation derived from science andtechnology. Policy planners should seek wider participation in discussions on in-novation policy-setting. Foresight activities have become more important as atool to provide evidence-based discussion in order to compose some visions withthe goal of overcoming global problems and aiming at sustainable development.

The National Institute of science and technology policy (NISTEP) has long expe-rience of Delphi-type foresight activities. Recently, it succeeded in contributingto the discussion for the establishment of the 3rd science and technology basicplan (2006–2010) in Japan. On the other hand, the Finnish Funding Agency forTechnology and Innovation (Tekes) has successfully selected priority themes forFinland in FinnSight 2015 (together with the Academy of Finland in 2006) andalso in the Tekes focus area report People - Economy - Environment - Prioritiesfor the future (in 2008), which emphasize the formation of a social vision.

NISTEP and Tekes had carried out collaborative research in 2007 in order to de-velop more suitable foresight methodologies for future social trend or socialneeds. The processes in each country were similar, though conducted separately.They shared their various types of experience in a complementary relationship.

In this report, by comparing results between NISTEP and Tekes, it shows somesolutions for an aging and safe society, a progressed digital society, and a sustain-able society.

NISTEP and Tekes wish to express sincere thanks to the experts who participatedin this project for their valuable contribution.

Contents

Foreword

1 Overview of the collaborative foresight project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.1 Background and goals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

1.2 Overview of the themes and process implementation . . . . . . . . . . 2

1.3 Foresight processes in Japan and Finland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

2 Comparison of Japanese and Finnish results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

2.1 Theme A: Health care and well-being to prepare for aging society . . 7

2.2 Theme B: Consumers, Media and digital convergence. . . . . . . . . . 9

2.3 Theme C: Recycling society for sustainable environment . . . . . . . 10

3 Methodological reflections and conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

3.1 Methodological reflections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

3.2 Conclusions on international foresight collaboration. . . . . . . . . . . 13

3.3 Summary and discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Appendix Results from panel work and Delphi surveys . . . . . . . . . . . 17

A-1 NISTEP’s panel results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

A-2 NISTEP’s Delphi results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

A-3 Panel members (Japan) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

A-4 Tekes panel results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

A-5 Tekes Delphi results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

A-6 Panel members (Finland) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

Tekes Reviews in English . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

1 Overview of the collaborative foresight project

1.1 Background and goals

In spring 2007, Tekes (The Finnish FundingAgency for Technology and Innovation) andNISTEP (the National Institute of Science andTechnology Policy of Japan) decided to under-take a joint foresight pilot project. The projecthad several goals. Developing and piloting fore-sight methodology that combines Delphi surveyand a participatory panel process was a key objec-tive. NISTEP’s primary goal was to develop andpilot new methodologies for their next nationaltechnology foresight survey. Tekes wanted todeepen and widen foresight for some themes al-ready identified in its own strategic focus areaprocess, and this project provided a good plat-form. For both organizations, this was a pilotforesight project where societal challenges occu-pied a central role. International cooperation inforesight was important for both parties.

NISTEP has a long tradition in technology fore-sight. They conducted their 8th technology fore-sight survey in 2003–2004, and are now planningthe 9th. NISTEP has actively developed the fore-sight process and methods used. On the 8thround, they widened their scope from technologyto also include socio-economic analysis. Theyprovided the basic data and materials of the 8thround to the government when it formulated the3rd Basic Plan (2006–2010) for the promotion ofscience and technology. NISTEP also conduct re-search and analysis on trends in science and tech-nology. The science and technology perspectiveand Delphi surveys form essential parts ofNISTEP’s approach to foresight.

Tekes has experience of many participatory fore-sight processes that have been linked to e.g. theTekes strategy process. Participants include

stakeholders such as Finnish companies, researchinstitutes and public organizations that togethercreate a view of the strategic choices for Finland.Tekes is also cooperating in foresight issues withother Finnish innovation policy actors. As an ex-ample, Tekes and the Academy of Finland con-ducted a joint foresight project – FinnSight 2015.Networking both multi- and cross-disciplinesand using panel-type discussions are essentialfeatures of Tekes’s overall approach to foresight.

The process was initiated jointly by Tekes andNISTEP and implemented independently in Fin-land and Japan. The work process was based onsimilar principles and methodology in both coun-tries but practical implementation in details var-ied – and methods were also developed during theproject. A common challenge was to create a pro-cess based on identified societal challenges andproviding concrete policy recommendations forthe future. Another challenge was to combine twodifferent approaches used in the foresight pro-cess: Delphi survey and panel-based foresight.

One of the main ideas in the project was to takesocietal challenges as the starting point for fore-sight. Global megatrends and national challengesidentified in other contexts served as backgroundmaterial when the decision on the themes wastaken. The decision was based on the discussionsbetween NISTEP and Tekes. Three general areaswere identified in the discussions: aging, sus-tainability and digital society. The challenges aresuch that broad discussion – not just technology –is needed to meet them. These themes were dis-cussed wider in both organizations, and beforeinitiating the actual foresight process the themeswere defined more carefully together. In anycase, the final themes varied somewhat between

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Finland and Japan. The joint overall themes weredesignated as follows:• Theme A: Health Care and Well-being

to Prepare for an Aging Society• Theme B: Consumers, Media and Digital

Convergence• Theme C: Recycling Society for Sustainable

Environment

The main purpose of the foresight process was toidentify policy actions and innovation needs aswell as potentials related to the selected societalthemes. In Finland, the process had a practicallink to the parallel strategy process in Tekes thataimed to identify future priority areas of its oper-ations. The results of the foresight project sup-ported the selection of focus areas at Tekes. Asthe project was closely linked to the core objec-tives of Tekes, the identified needs and potentialswere linked to both Finnish society and globalbusiness opportunities. In Japan, the project wasa more independent pilot that provided a learningplatform.

This project included several challenges leadingto an experimental and creative foresight process.Societal future challenges, as the starting point isnew for both organizations. Combining theDelphi survey with the panel- and work-shop-based foresight process was also a new ini-tiative. International, simultaneously and inde-pendently conducted collaborative foresight wasa new way to try to get some comparative resultsand deeper understanding of foresight results.Methods developed for the process to facilitatediscussion in panel meetings were creative andproductive, and supported both future and strate-gic thinking and reporting of results. These fea-tures of the process provided a good learningplatform for foresight methodologies.

1.2 Overview of the themes andprocess implementation

This foresight was carried out as based on a coop-eration agreement, signed by the National Instituteof Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) and

the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology andInnovation (Tekes). It is a joint research project onscience and technology foresight. Japan and Fin-land have experience with differing approaches toscience and technology foresight. It is thereforehighly significant that the National Institute of Sci-ence and Technology Policy (NISTEP) and theFinnish Funding Agency for Technology and In-novation (Tekes) are collaborating on research oncurrent and future science and technology fore-sight themes and new methods.

Through discussion, the two organizations set thefollowing three societal themes as targets forjoint reseach.• Theme A: Health Care and Well-being

to Prepare for an Aging Society• Theme B: Consumers, Media and Digital

Convergence• Theme C: Recycling Society for Sustainable

Environment

The Japanese side targeted the following contentsfor discussion: Health and lifestyle in an aged so-ciety in Theme A, Media integration and its usagein Theme B, Towards the realization of a recy-cling society through the recycling, and re-utili-zation of resources in Theme C, respectively. InFinland, the discussions emphasized the follow-ing perspectives: Theme A: Health and well-be-ing in aging society, Theme B: Changing mediaand ICT in everyday life and Theme C: A societybased on energy and material efficiency. The dif-ferences in the theme descriptions reflect differ-ences in the Japanese and Finnish societies aswell as in their social systems and business orga-nizations. In practice, the panels working on thethemes enjoyed significant flexibility in definingthe actual topics that were discussed.

This research aimed not only to foresight the fu-ture of each theme but also incorporated new effortin studying the methodology by which science,technology and innovation can be guided towardsthat future. In general, a similar process wasadopted in both countries, with greater latitudegiven in the details of the process in the two coun-tries and for each theme. The process tested in-

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cluded meetings of expert panels, scenarios,mini-Delphi survey (online questionnaires), inno-vation roadmaps and workshops. Personnel incharge at NISTEP and Tekes exchanged informa-tion on the progress of the process as appropriate.

1.3 Foresight processesin Japan and Finland

(1) Common processes

The starting point of the foresight project was theimplementation of a similar process in both coun-tries. In practice, the details of the processes var-ied due to different persrpectives, interpretationof the role of different methods within the processas well as the overall emphasis of the project inNISTEP and Tekes. The foresight process imple-mented in the two countries is illustrated in Fig-ures 1 and 2.

The following process components were used inboth Japan and Finland:• Meetings of expert panels• Mini-Delphi survey (online questionnaires)• Scenario creation (In Japan, individual sce-

nario per theme)

In both countries, the expert panels for each thememet four times. Each panel included researchers,company representatives as well as representativesof NGOs with visions for the future and wide per-spective of their own sectors and society. Themembers of the expert panels in both countries arelisted at the end of this report in Appendices A-1for NISTEP and A-2 for Tekes. Tekes invited thechairmen and 10–15 panel members for eachpanel to participate in the work. NISTEP also exe-cuted it in the same manner.

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Figure 1. The Japanese foresight process

(2) Differences

On the other hand, the foresight process in Japanand Finland differed in many aspects. The meth-ods were applied in a slightly different way andhad a slightly different role in the overall process.The following sub-sections describe the key dif-ferences in the process and in the use of methods.

(i) Overall process

The sequence of the process differed in the twocountries. The Japanese side intended the finaldeliverable of the research to be the developmentof detailed policy visions for S&T policy andaimed for all methods in the survey process to beused to develop such policy visions. If the processis described in a very simplified manner, it tried toidentify the technological possibilities and ana-

lyse how these could be used in order to solve thesocietal challenges. On the other hand, in Finlandthe process started with the analysis of future so-cietal development and identification of the mostimportant societal challenges. The focus was onthe societal demand for innovation. Subse-quently, there was an attempt in the work to iden-tify potential technological solutions and neces-sary policies that would be needed to implementthe solutions. The Finnish side aimed for policyrecommendations primarily for innovation activ-ities, but also for other policy areas. Hence thepanel work proceeded methodologically from fu-ture scenarios describing various possible futuresto overall societal visions and further to road-maps describing the key content areas and policyrecommendations. The Delphi survey was usedfor supporting the development of roadmaps.

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Possible futures(Scenarios)

– Societal needs, challengesand goals

– Technology demandDelphi survey

– Technological solutionsand their timing

Road-map work– Prioritised goals

– Identified policies andother actions

Vision

Initial theme definitions& input from general

scenarion work at Tekes

Japanese Delphi surveyPanel meeting 1:Kick-off, trends anddrivers and viewsof possible futures

Panel meeting 2:Challenges, needs and

strategic options relatedto possible futures

Panel meeting 3:Setting the vision andstrategic goals, and

identifying the key policyareas and

Cross thematic meetingIdentifying cross

thematic issues andpotential policies

Report writing andanalysis of

cross thematic issues

Panel meeting 4:Completing the

innovation road-mapand suggestions for

action plan

Pane

l wor

k

Figure 2. The Finnish foresight process

Due to slightly different policy focus, the per-spective of the whole process varied to some ex-tent. In Finland, the societal vision and its impli-cations to innovation activities were emphasizedas a basis for the policy recommendations, whilstin Japan the technological possibilities and theirimplications on the S&T policy vision within theselected themes were emphasized more. Despiteslight differences in the process, the actual topicsdiscussed during the process were very similar inboth countries.

(ii) Foresight target dates

Initially, the year 2020 was agreed as a target yearin both countries. The Japanese panels accepted2020 as the foresight target date for each theme.In the case of Theme C (Recycling), however,2020 was seen as too soon for major change, soforesighting was carried out for 2020 with an eyeon 2035 as well. The Finnish panels set a differentdate for each theme in their visions, i.e.. 2030 forTheme A (Health), 2020 for Theme B (Media),and 2050 for Theme C (Recycling). However,concrete policy recommendations were set forthe near future.

(iii) Delphi survey

Both countries used a mini-Delphi survey in theirprocesses. Due to the pilot nature of the exercise,the survey was implemented in one round only,and it differed from a full-scale Delphi survey.However, the role and timing of the surveys wasslightly different in Finland and in Japan.

In Japan, the expert panels developed the Delphitopics during the second panel meetings. Theidea was that the Delphi surveys provide a per-spective on the potential technological solutions.Hence the Delphi was integral to the creation ofscenarios and policy visions.

In Finland, the Delphi survey aimed at providinginformation on the timing of potential technolog-ical solutions that could be used in achieving thesocietal vision. Hence the perspective was moredemand-driven. The statements were developedprimarily by Tekes representatives and the pro-cess consultant and the 8th Japanese Delphi wasused as a starting point. The discussion of the

Delphi topics and the results of the Delphi surveydid not have an impact on the creation of scenar-ios or visions. The experiences suggest that bothuses of Delphi method are valid, but there are im-plications on the process of formulating the state-ments and the timing of the survey in the process.In both cases, panel members must have a keyrole in defining the statements and there needs tobe enough time for discussing the results.

(iv) Roadmaps

The Finnish panels developed societal visionstatements and goals during their third panelmeetings and developed roadmaps during theirfourth and final meetings. The developedroadmaps describe steps that are needed in orderto take identified solutions in use. The Finnishroadmaps are quite general – not detailed tech-nology roadmaps – and provide limited guidancefor the development of individual technologies.The Japanese side did not create roadmaps butpolicy recommendations were included in themore detailed policy visions. The Japanese ex-perts on the panels considered that roadmapsshould describe the detailed steps for technologi-cal development. Hence they hesitated to createroadmaps. The experiences suggest that develop-ing detailed roadmaps is a challenging task in apanel process. One of the key challenges is com-bining societal and technological perspective.

(v) Scenarios

Both countries used scenarios in the process, butthe interpretation as well as timing and role in theprocess were clearly different. In Finland, severaltrends and uncertainties describing a potential fu-ture society within each theme were identified atthe beginning of the process, and then scenarioswere developed in each group based on these is-sues. All the panels had access to common back-ground material describing general societaltrends and signals. The scenarios were built at thebeginning of the process and they aimed at de-scribing possible developments in the global andnational environment, where STI and other poli-cies in the selected themes will possibly be oper-ating in the future. Hence scenarios formed a ba-sis for setting the societal visions and developingroadmaps.

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In Japan, one individual scenario was developedfor each theme. This scenario described the po-tential future development path in case the identi-fied key technologies will be realized. In Japan,Expert Panel members first created scenarios in-dividually, and those scenarios then formed thebasis for discussion. Hence the scenarios repre-sent a key result of the processes. Due to the dif-ferent meanings and roles of scenarios, the timingand exact manner of constructing them also var-ied significantly.

(vi) Vision

The Japanese policy visions included relativelydetailed policy-oriented items, such as “Actionthat Japan should take (roles of industry, govern-ment, and academia),” “Science and technologythat should be emphasized,” and “Social systemsthat should be improved.” It is a kind of group-based scenario. In Finland, the visions were moregeneral societal goal statements, describing thefuture state of the society within the theme. Therecommended policy and other actions were in-cluded in the roadmaps.

(vii) Workshops

In Japan, workshops were held on Themes A andB after the fourth meetings of the Expert Panels,in order to include people other than Expert Panelmembers in the study of the policy visions. Someof the results of study in the Theme A workshopwere reflected in that theme’s policy vision. ForTheme C, the workshop was positioned as part ofthe policy vision development process and washeld after the third panel meeting.

In Finland, no separate workshops were orga-nized. Panel members took part in all the meet-ings except the cross-thematic meeting, wherethe panel chairmen and Tekes representativeswere present.

(viii) Cross-thematic issues

An interesting and valuable part of the Finnishprocess was also to look for innovation potentialacross and between the selected themes. These is-sues were identified in a joint meeting with panelchairmen and Tekes representatives after the the-matic panels had finished their work. Althoughthe work represented only a small role in the over-all process, the analysis and results illustrated thepotential of cross-thematic discussions.

(ix) Process coordination

As with the actual process, the way of managingand coordinating the processes varied from onecountry to the other. In Japan, NISTEP personnelplayed a key role in managing the whole process,coordinating the work between panels and evenmoderating the panel meetings on a general level.Panel chairmen chaired the panel meetings.NISTEP made the reports with support and com-ments from the panel chairmen and panel mem-bers.

In Finland, Tekes was responsible for the overallmanagement of the process. More detailed pro-cess plans were developed in close cooperationwith Gaia Consulting Ltd, which served as a pro-cess consultant for the project in Finland. Detailsof the pilot project were planned and discussed inadvance and throughout the process together withthe process consultants, Tekes and the chairmen.Gaia Consulting Ltd representatives also acted asprocess facilitators who planned the panel meet-ing techniques in detail as well as supporting andfacilitating the work in the panel meetings. Thepanel chairmen were responsible for the contentsduring the meeting and panel chairmen carriedthe main responsibility of report writing.

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2 Comparison of Japanese and Finnish results

As with the foresight processes, similarities anddifferences between the two countries exist alsoin the contents of each theme. The similaritiesand differences in the results for each of thethree themes are discussed below. The resultsfor each theme in both countries are described inAppendix.

The themes differed slightly in the overall leveland broadness. Recycling as well as health themeare very broad and challenging topics. On theother hand there are clear societal challenges andcreating a national vision (goal) in these themes isimportant for meeting the challenges. As thechallenges are broad, they are linked to manyother policy areas, in addition to science technol-ogy and innovation. With the media theme, it ismore difficult to identify the societal challenge.The discussions were also on a slightly differentlevel than with the other themes. In practice, fo-cus on user behavior and needs.

In general, it seems that constructive discussionsseem to be easier if the focus is more on possibili-ties than big challenges. For example the healthpanel discussions in Finland had clear challengesin this.

2.1 Theme A: Health care andwell-being to prepare foran aging society

(1) Differences between Tekes’ visionsand NISTEP’s policy visions

In Finland and Japan, the target dates for fore-sight as a whole differed, with Finland targeting2030 and Japan 2020. However, there were nomajor differences between the visions developedin the two countries.

The Finns listed sustainable health (“health con-tinuum”) as a social goal. Initially, the Japaneseside had a similar goal, but discussion in the ex-pert panel led to a shift of social goals away froman emphasis on the elderly to the key concepts of“people of all generations in every state of healthliving in an aging society” and “autonomy andcoexistence without force.” The Japanese socialgoals are therefore somewhat broader than theFinnish ones. Although the concept of healthcontinuum covers life as a whole, in Finland theemphasis was more on the pressure that aging so-ciety causes on the health care system and thehealth care of elderly people cause on society.

Furthermore, in order to achieve the goals, theFinns set forth visions to the effect that “socialand health care is based on a synergistic approachto improve the quality of life with optimal use ofresources” and “continuous development work isintroducing niche business concepts internation-ally.” In Finland, the discussions focused to alarge extent on the health care system. In this dis-cussion, economic pressure and the need for pro-ductivity growth gained a key role. Hence the fo-cus was more on the health care system level dis-cussion, instead of broader societal goals.

The Japanese, meanwhile, developed the follow-ing visions for the topics: “Everyone can obtainhis/her accurate health information at varioiusstages of life and can choose a lifestyle and medi-cal treatment based on that information,” “Allgenerations, including the elderly, can easily ac-cess information on safety and security in theirhomes,” and “Social business is fostered to makethe same high-quality health, medical and nurs-ing services available anywhere, anytime.”

As science and technology and systems that willbe necessary henceforth, the Finns listed health

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food, “senior houses” (with services adapted touser needs), alarm systems that use advanced sen-sors and ubiquitous sensors (to prevent accidents,illness and falls), robot technology (cleaning,laundry, communication devices, security, etc.),more efficient logistics to deliver everyday prod-ucts (to support the elderly), high-resolution tele-vision systems that can be enjoyed at home, andimproved product design (ending resistance tohigh technology). These include the perspectivesof both prevention and improved quality of life.The Japanese results were similar, but one itemnot mentioned by the Finns is labor (time) banks.Labor banks are a type of community currency.One can “deposit” time spent on care and so oninto a labor (time) bank and then “withdraw” itwhen needed to help care for oneself or one’s par-ents or other relatives.

An overall difference in the visions was that inFinland, a business perspective based on nationalstrengths (IT, natural resources, and care and ser-vice models for the elderly) was clearly indi-cated. In Japan, on the other hand, a comprehen-sive perspective in which industry, government,academia, and the public fill various roles to real-ize social systems that raise the national qualityof life was evident. Rather than arising from dif-ferences in national policies, this difference prob-ably stems from the fact that the aging of societyis more advanced in Japan than in Finland. Thelatter country is foresighting the future, whilst theformer is already facing the reality. The emphasison business perspective is also related to the roleof Tekes in the national innovation system.

(2) Differences in scenarios

The Finnish foresight emphasized economics.They studied four scenarios, in which either theeconomic situation is good and funding is ade-quate to support health care or the economic situ-ation is poor and only a small wealthy class canobtain services, and in which either individual-ism or collectivism is prevalent. Different combi-nations of economic success and societal valuescreate different operational environment forhealth care.

In Japan, discussion in the expert panel did not in-clude an economic perspective. The panel saw(mild) collectivism as more desirable than indi-vidualism because it perceived “autonomy with-out force,” “coexistence among generations,” and“self-help and mutual assistance rather than pub-lic sector assistance” as necessary.

(3) Differences in the Delphi results

Similar overall topics were constructed in bothJapan and Finland, but they differed in their yearsof realization. Furthermore, comparison of thesurveys as a whole finds that (i) dates of realiza-tion tend to be later for Finland than for Japan, (ii)the gaps between the dates of technical realiza-tion and the dates of social realization tend to beshorter in Japan, and (iii) dates of realization formedical treatment-related topics tend to be late inboth countries.

(i) Topics where the Japanese date ofrealization is later than the Finnish one

Topics with early dates of realization in Finlandinclude public transportation services for “De-sign guidelines and requirements for publicspaces where anyone can move around safely andwithout barriers (social application in 2012)” and“Health services based on telemedicine servicesand medical data obtained at home or in the field(social application in 2012).” In Japan, similarDelphi topics have later dates of realization thanin Finland: “Barrier-free modes of transportationso as to realize them in an unrestricted, safe, andlow-cost manner (technological realization in2019; social application in 2020),” and “Tele-medicine systems that enable people to receiveprimary care at home (technological realizationin 2017; social application in 2018).”

(ii) A topic where the gap between datesof technical realization and socialapplication is shorter in Japan

In Japan, technological realization and social ap-plication for “Driving support systems for peoplewho have difficulty driving ordinary cars (bothtechnological realization and social applicationin 2018)” are expected to occur in the same year,whilst in Finland there is an almost 10-year gap

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for the same topic, “A driving assistance systemfor people who have difficulty in driving or areunable to drive ordinary cars because of age-re-lated problems (technological realization in2013; social application in 2022).”

(iii) Topics related to medical care

In Finland, the topic with the last date of realiza-tion is “Stem cell therapies to replace failing or-gans (technological realization in 2021; socialapplication in 2030),” whilst in Japan the lasttopic is “Technology for regenerating cognitivefunctions (technological realization in 2024; so-cial application in 2026).”

2.2 Theme B: Consumers, mediaand digital convergence

(1) Differences in the overall processand themes

Both organizations divided this theme intosubthemes. The subthemes of the Finnish sidewere “User-centered media”, “Print 2.0” (com-bining electronic and printed media), “MobileInternet and ”Open media platforms”. These rep-resent solutions or areas where Finnish skills andcompetences could provide competitive innova-tions in the global context. In the Delphi survey,the statements were divided into varioussubthemes. The themes of the Japanese side were“Business perspective”, “Social media perspec-tive”, “Network infrastructure perspective”, and“Regulations and systems perspective”. As a re-sult, there is a slight difference in coverage. TheFinns divided the Delphi topics into subthemes forconvenience, but the Japanese used the subthemesas a device of their own discussions. This is a sig-nificant difference in operation, and then in meth-odology. The Finns utilized the Delphi survey as atool of developing a roadmap, but the Japaneseutilized the discussion of Delphi topics as a toolof setting the scenarios and visions.

Through their scenario work, the Finnish side de-scribed three types of foresight scenarios basedon changes in everyday life and user behavior.Their keywords were “Better everyday media,”“Web 5.0,” and “Human 2.0.” These scenarios

were used as starting points in the process and thesubthemes were identified only after the scenar-ios were built. In contrast, the Japanese side dis-cussed foresight scenarios and policy proposalsin accordance with the subthemes.

The Finns developed visions and goals at the thirdmeeting of thier expert panel, and developedroadmaps toword 2020 at the final meeting. In Ja-pan, it was revealed in the third meeting that theDelphi survey results and the opinions of thepanel members did not agree on the dates of tech-nological realization and of social application.For this reason, the development of the roadmapwas unsuccessful in Japan. But this discussionwas very helpful for members to clarify visionsand goals, because they noticed the substantialmeaning of the information and communicationtechnology.

(2) Differences in Delphi results

Finnish Delphi survey showed that three specifictopics would take at least 10 years from the tech-nological realization to the social application.These were noted as cases of “slow social appli-cation”. This was a significant difference fromtrends in the Japanese survey, where the socialapplication would come quickly after the techno-logical realization, or even before it. In addition,the Finnish Delphi survey results and the opin-ions of the expert panel did not agree about re-search and development levels. The result maydepend on whether Nokia is taken as a mediacompany or not. On the Japanese side, opinionsdiffered on dates of technological realization,leading to deep discussion on the phenomenonthat the social application comes first. An inter-esting commonality was that when the Delphisurvey results and the opinions of the expert pan-els differed in this way, deep discussion tookplace, even if it did not reach a conclusion.

(3) Common features of the policyvisions and proposals

In Finland, there was discussion of “Who andwhat are media for,” whilst in Japan, an almostidentical discussion concerned “Information andmedia are not aims themselves but the means”.

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Naturally, these essential discussions lead thepolicy visions to be quite similar to each other.The Finnish vision – “Finland is a proactive anddaring flagship of the changing media environ-ment for learning, well-being, and entertain-ment” – was closely matched by the Japanese vi-sion: “We should use the information communi-cation technology and media to create new cul-ture, enhance the quality of our lives, and solvevarious problems such as the environment, en-ergy-saving, health care, and so on”.

The Finns use the word “entertainment”, havingrecognized the fact that most of Europe’s gamedevelopment companies are located in Nordiccountries, as well as the global competitivenessof Japan’s game sector. The Finns’ statement –“Japanese popular culture has been becomingmore and more visible globally in the recentyears, especially through manga, anime, filmsand computer games” – may be followed by theJapanese statement “The ability to generate cre-ative contents such as manga and games shouldbe directed towards the creation of new cultureand the building of better lifestyles”.

Furthermore, the existence of Nokia is relevantfor the Finnish side. This was one of the maindrivers behind the selection of mobile Internet asa subtheme in the Finnish panel. Nokia’s strategicgoal of transforming from a cellular network andphone company into a mobile Internet businesscompany is expected to create possibilities forother companies in Finland. It is seen that publicpolicy should support the development of smallercompanies so that they can benefit from the newpossibilities that Nokia’s strong position in theFinnish business environment creates.

Both countries share the view of a significant roleof business-driven development and private capi-tal in technology and media business develop-ment. Government involvement involvement isprimarily linked to enabling factors like standard-ization, IPR questions and, in particular, educationand research. The Finns propose e.g. “We needmulti-disciplinary education, especially in the hu-manistic and societal areas”. This is similar to theJapanese statement “A fixed percentage of fundingshould go towards social science research”.

2.3 Theme C: Recycling societyfor sustainable environment

(1) Characteristics of the process andthe results

How the theme was addressed

The recycling theme had a slightly different intialfocus in Finland compared to Japan. In Finland,the theme definition was reformulated as a soci-ety based on energy and material efficiency. Thisreflects the societal objective rather than one wayof achieving a sustainable society. This differ-ence in the intial focus has only a slight impact onthe actual themes discussed – eventually verysimilar perspectives were covered in both coun-tries. This also reflects the fact that the societalchallenges within this theme are rather clear andthe key questions concern what the actual solu-tions on different levels and contexts are.

Based on the theme of energy and materials effi-ciency, Tekes paid attention to the details of re-sources in narrowing down to an emphasis oneconomic use. Within this framework, it grappledwith reducing environmental impact and usingresources effectively. The Finnish subthemeswere defined on the basis of the selected visionand represent themes where new strategies andactions are needed. These were primarily linkedto key areas in the society that affect the use of en-ergy and materials. The selected subthemes were:1. Spatial planning, housing and transport, 2. En-ergy and material efficiency of industrial produc-tion, 3. Energy production – CO2 and small scaleproduction, 4. Sustainable use of resources andmaterials, and 5. Environmental competencesand environmental management skills.

NISTEP addressed the theme broadly, withsubthemes of “1. Cleaning the atmosphere andreducing greenhouse gas emissions,” “2. Produc-tion and efficient use of energy,” “3. Reuse of re-sources,” and “Utilization of water.”

The selection of subthemes also reflect the na-tional contexts. Although the question of waterresources was raised in the Finnish discussions,the panel did raise it as a subtheme. It was identi-

10

fied as an important issue, but it is not essential inthe Finnish context. The subthemes within thistheme also reflect the difference in the overallperspective where Tekes discussions emphasizedthe societal challenges as demand factors for in-novations and the NISTEP side approached theissues more from the perspective of the techno-logical possibilities.

However, both countries shared many views. Theexpert panels discussed, from national and globalperspectives, policies on energy shortages andsustainable resource consumption with climatechange as the key driver. They emphasized recy-cling and reuse in industries such as heavy met-als. Its perspective included changes in transpor-tation and logistics services, a shift to energy-sav-ing buildings, and the reduction of CO2 emissionsin the food industry.

Panel composition and survey methods

Like NISTEP, Tekes gathered a wide array of ex-perts from industry, academia, and governmentfor its panel. Previous surveys and reports werenot explicitly used in the process; the survey re-lied solely on the experience and expertise of thepanel members. Hence, knowledge from previ-ous studies was brought to the process by thepanel members. This choice partially reflects thepilot nature and limited resources of the exercise.Discussion in Japan welcomed not just experts,but also responsible parties from the hotel thatprovided services.

Visions and the roadmap

After the Finnish panel developed different futurescenarios, they created visions for 2050. It dis-

cussed policies based on Finland’s location fromthe perspective of efficiency in energy and prod-uct materials and related services. Unlike theconcrete Japanese policy visions related to eachsubtheme, Tekes’ vision for energy and materialsefficiency is comprehensive and general. It doesnot include concrete policies. Concrete policy ac-tions are part of the roadmap, which was based onthe subthemes mentioned above.

(2) Common features ofthe results

In order to realize central solutions during theroadmap study process, Tekes examined researchand education, criteria for assessing energy andmaterials efficiency, environmental protectionmechanisms, and technology policies for energyand materials. Global environmental changes andglobal competition to protect energy and other re-sources drove its discussions.

In the expert panel in Japan, examination of theideal of a recycling-oriented society that reusesresource took place. This “ideal society” is simi-lar to “central solutions” reflected in the sub-themes on Tekes’ side.

Tekes emphasizes education related to protectingthe environment. This is similar to the Japaneseside’s policy vision of “A platform for human re-sources education must be created globallythrough collaboration among industry, universi-ties and the government”, and “a framework tosupport the effective utilization of energy re-sources by private consumers in order to realize alow carbon society.”

11

3 Methdological reflections and conclusions

3.1 Methodological reflections

From a methodological point of view the jointforesight process between Tekes and NISTEPcan be seen as a pilot foresight combining Delphisurvey with expert panel process and other fore-sight methods. Combining these methods wasnew in both countries. At Tekes, the earlier expe-riences of Delphi method were limited, and onthe NISTEP side, the participatory panel processwas the key learning objective.

The experience shows that combining panels andDelphi surveys can be beneficial. It enables com-bining the views on technological developmentthat are provided by a large group of experts in aDelphi survey with a more in-depth discussionsand conclusions provided by a panel process. Onthe other hand, the experiences suggest that theseparts need to be closely integrated. In practice thismeans that Delphi topics and statements shouldbe formulated on the basis of the views of thepanel, and the results need to be discussed on adetailed level in the panel. This seems to be a pre-requisite for integrating the Delphi results in thepanel work.

The processes were independently implementedin both countries and there were some key differ-ences in the overall process and the way individ-ual methods were used. These differences werediscussed in Chapter 1. The key difference in theprocess was that Finnish panels approached thethemes more from the societal challenges’ pointof view, whilst the Japanese panels had techno-logical possibilities as the main angle. Despitethis difference, the actual discussions raised verysimilar aspects, and the processes show that solv-ing societal issues can be approached from bothperspectives with very similar conclusions as aresult.

When we considered the key lessons from theprocess, we can conclude that the process pro-duced valuable results in short time with limitedresources. The nature of the pilot is reflected inthe process as methodologies were partly devel-oped during the process. The working processwould also have benefitted from more systematicanalysis and summaries of earlier literature andother “back office” support. The exercise was apositive experience for the panel members.

When we consider potential explanations for dif-ferences in the approaches and in the use of meth-ods, the roles of the organizations in the nationalinnovation systems provide some potential ex-planations. NISTEP is a research institute affili-ated with MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture,Sports, Science and Technology), which is plan-ning and designing the basic policies to promotescience and technology as one of the missions.NISTEP plays a role in supporting the establish-ment of science and technology policy in MEXTor CSTP (Council for Science and TechnologyPolicy) of Cabinet Office. Hence, NISTEP con-sider science and technology, not so much busi-ness. On the other hand, Tekes is primarily afunding agency, supporting company R&D andapplied research in universities and research or-ganizations. This explains, to a large extent, thestronger emphasis on business potential in theFinnish panels.

Furthermore, the pilot had a variant role, depend-ing on the organization. In Finland, the foresightexercise was closely linked to the parallel Tekesfocus area strategy process. The discussions hada direct link to the strategy work through theTekes representatives on each panel. This madethe discussions goal-oriented and directed theway results were presented. On the other hand, inJapan this was primarily an independent pilot that

12

aimed at methodological development in order toproduce new foresight related to R&D processes,relationship between science and technology andsociety as well as adapting technology to societaland economic needs. This will be used as an inputin planning the 9th national foresight. For both,the role of societal challenges was strengthenedin foresight.

The above issues also exerted an impact on the re-quirements for objectivity and reporting the re-sults. With Tekes, the foresight did not have offi-cial status in the strategy process. Hence the panelswere independent and the visions and recommen-dations were not expected to represent the officialviews of Tekes. This gave the panels the freedomto think “out of the box”. Furthermore, the personlevel link to the strategy process made it possibleto take the results and the discussions in the panelsdirectly into account. The link to Tekes strategyprocess also defined the format of some of the keyillustrations that were used in reporting. Hence,the link from foresight to implementation was verydirect in the case of Tekes. The foresight, strategicchoices and implementation all take place in thesame organization, and to some extent even thesame people are involved in all these activities aswell as in the foresight exercise.

The overall differences in the STI (science, tech-nology, innovation) policymaking may also ex-plain the differences in the processes to some ex-tent. In Finland, competitive funding plays a keyrole. This has created a situation where policy-makers make rather general level priorizations.There is e.g. no central plan that would direct thefunding decisions. Tekes is, to a large extent, re-sponsible for priorization of its own R&D fund-ing, and even on the Tekes level the priorities setare rather general. The actual technologicalchoices are, to a large extent, made in individualfunding decisions and projects based on the pro-posals from companies and researchers. This isbased on the view that public policy is an en-abling factor rather than something that directsthe development. In Japan, CSTP serves as theheadquarters for the promotion of ST policy, andit overlooks all of the nation’s science and tech-nology. The relevant ministries and agencies tryto promote individual R&D-related to science

and technology in the fields under their jurisdic-tion by CSTP’s indication. This creates a muchmore demanding environment for thepriorization decisions. CSTP have frequently re-quested NISTEP to provide basic data and mate-rials related to science and technology for 5 year.Hence, NISTEP’s acitivities is going to be con-nected with the planning process of central levelscience and technology policy.

The experience and tradition related to foresightalso explain some of the methodological differ-ences. NISTEP has a long tradition in Delphimethodology and detailed technology foresightand much less experience withincorporation ofsocial aspects into foresight. Tekes has traditionin interactive participatory processes with manystakeholders, but little experience with Delphi.This explains partly the more limited role ofDelphi in the Finnish panel work and the centralrole of Deplhi in the Japanese process. This un-derlines the fact that methods and practices are tosome extent embedded in the processes and prac-tices of the organization. Hence methods andpractices cannot be copied directly. Adoptingmethods and even using results produced with thesame methods requires learning.

3.2 Conclusions on internationalforesight collaboration

Foresight can be done on various levels, extend-ing from the analysis of basic research to macrosocietal issues. Foresight projects can also have avery different distance to policymaking and otherdecision-making. In this project, the two nationalprocesses illustrate varied links to strategy/deci-sion-making. A close link to decision-making isoften emphasized as a success factor for foresightprojects. However, this is very much linked to thequestions and objectives of the foresight as wellas the mandate of the project. Whilst close con-nection to decision-making make the use of re-sults easier, there is a need for independence inorder to be able to produce new insight.

As the foresight in this case was aimed at provid-ing information for selecting strategic focus areasfor funding or piloting a process that should pro-

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duce information for making a priorization, thisprovides a relevant case for discussing the poten-tial for deeper international collaboration. First ofall, the parallel national processes show that evenin national contexts, providing a priorization is achallenging task for panels. It seems evident thatparallel panel processes covering various themescannot be directly compared. Hence a panel pro-cess with many parallel panels cannot produce anoverall priorization. It is also evident that defin-ing the themes for the panels already includepriorization. The panel themes are already strate-gic decisions that influence the recommendationsthat the panels produce. Hence questions is howmuch power can actually delegate to the panels.In an international foresight setting, these chal-lenges are even more significant. This processsuggest that the decision-makers would need tohave a close link to the panels and, ideally, evenactively participate in the work on a personallevel. Still the panels should have relatively largeindependence. In this kind of expert panel settingwith outside experts, civil servants cannot out-source the final decision-making.

Foresight on societal challenges extend from un-derstanding the drivers behind the societal chal-lenges to understanding the science and technol-ogy trends potentially related to the theme. Thereare various issues that need to be understood inorder to combine the two extremes and the fol-lowing list was created in the project in order to il-lustrate issues that are important in foresight onsuch societal themes:• Global megatrends and signals• Consumer behavior, values, etc.• Actual societal challenges and issues to

be solved• Technological, process and social innovation,

etc., solving challenges and issues• Science and technology possibilities• General science and technology trends

These issues are linked to national contexts tovarying extent. Hence, the joint internationalforesight process can add value to a varying ex-tent. In general, one can conclude that issues onboth ends of the list – megatrends and signals aswell as science and technology trends – are, to a

large extent, global and can be addressed in jointinternational processes. On the other hand, thecloser one moves to actual issues to be solved inthe national context and the potential innovationssolving these issues, the more context-specificthe issues are. Hence in these areas, an interna-tional context may even prevent fruitful discus-sions.

In this case, both parallel processes had a strongnational perspective. Collaboration took place pri-marily on the methdological level. On the otherhand, both countries approached the issues slightlyfrom different angles. Finnish panels act more fromnational societal challenges and Japanese panelsfrom technological possibilities that could be rele-vant in the Japanese context. These dimensions ofthe project are illustrated in Figure 3.

Within the framework illustrated in Figure 3, wecan consider expanding the processes towards aninternational focus. If the starting point of theprocess is finding solutions for societal chal-lenges, the immediate question is: whose chal-lenges and whose solutions? In the Tekes–NISTEP pilot, the themes were of common inter-est, but in both countries, the actual discussionshad a clearly national focus. This means that inthe Finnish process, the emphasis was eventuallyon Finnish challenges and the solutions that Fin-land could provide in each theme. Similarly, theJapanese part focused on Japanese society andpotential solutions Japan could produce. Despitecommon themes and very similar issues in thediscussions, the work resulted in various solu-tions for nation-specific challenges. In an inter-national setting, this is a very challenging setting,as participants need to be familiar with the issuesthat are discussed.

Comparing results of parallel processes producedwith a national focus can naturally add value. Ajoint process helps here, as it produces results thatare comparable during the process. Even morevalue could be added if one were to proceed on atruly international or global level. This couldmean e.g. producing joint solutions for interna-tional challenges, creating Finnish solutions forJapanese context or vice versa, etc.

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Moving away from the national context naturallycreates process challenges. In this respect, a moreexact focus thematically could be a solution. An-other relevant solution could be implementingonly part of the processes together on an interna-tional level and the other part nationally. To thispurpose, the above list of topics could serve as astarting point.

3.3 Summary and discussion

International foresight collaboration has beenlimited. This joint foresight project betweenFinnish Tekes and Japanese NISTEP representsan attempt to learn methodologically and pro-duce comparable results on three themes. Theforesight focused on three societal themes andhence is in line with the trend that foresight ex-pands from science and technology to a broadersocietal view1.

The results show that key differences in the im-plemented processes were linked to the nationalcontexts and varying interpretations of the meth-odologies used. This is in line with earlier resultssuggesting that the main challenges in foresightare related to the challenges of intergrating fore-sight with policymaking. In this case, the cooper-ation was primarily methodological and the pro-cesses were implemented independently. Inde-pendent implementation led to differences in re-alization. Due to its independent character, thecooperation benefits of the collaboration were, toa large extent, related to methodological develop-ment. Despite clear differences in the implemen-tation, highly similar topics were raised in thediscussions. The joint methodological frame-work therefore provides a good basis for compar-ing results.

15

Foresight andForesight methodology

Societal contextand other

policy areas

S&T andS&T policy

Innovation

Technology foresightSocietal foresight

FinlandJapan

Challenges Solutions

Joint process development

Figure 3. Illustration of the core focus of the joint andnational parts of the project in Tekes-NISTEP foresight.

1 See e.g. the results of ForSociety ERA-Net project in report on Methodological Aspects in NationalForesight Programmes (D11) and report on New Foresight Training Schemes (D17) available athttp://www.eranet-forsociety.net/ForSociety/results/index.html. See also the discussion on potentialbenefits and barriers in report D17.

http://www.eranet-forsociety.net/ForSociety/results/index.html

Earlier results suggest that the closer to policy-making and implementation the processes areand the wider societal issues are discussed, themore challenges there are in setting up a process.The international dimension adds additionalchallenges in this respect, and there are many bar-riers if one tries to implement a joint process.

One of the key issues in setting up an interna-tional foresight process is defining the focus and

mandate. These key question affect e.g. projectfunding. Currently, the national processes havediffering mandates – and it would have been chal-lenging to implement a joint project within thecurrent settings. The conclusions from this pro-ject suggest that the best solution of this kind onsocietal foresight could be a hybrid process,where some parts are implemented together andsome are implemented separately, nationallyspeaking.

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AppendixResults from panel work and Delphi surveys

The appendix introduces the foresight results ofeach theme. Japanese and Finnish results are pre-sented separately.

A-1 NISTEP’s panel results

The policy visions developed for each theme areshown in Sections (a), (b), and (c). Some resultsof the Delphi survey are shown in A-2 sections(d), (e), and (f).

1. Overview

(1) Theme name:Health and Lifestyle in an Aged Society

(2) Social goal

All generations, both healthy persons and thosein need of support in their daily lives, are able tolive the social and civic lifestyle that they desire,and are able to enjoy the benefits of a safe and sta-ble society without experiencing loneliness.

(Catch phrase for Japan 2020)

In 2020, new sciences and technologies to under-pin the future Japan and a mechanism for busi-ness innovation are in place, helping to reduceanxiety about future life.

(3) Policy Recommendations(Executive Summary)

To improve “Health and Lifestyle in an Aging So-ciety” in Japan in 2020, industry, government anduniversities need to provide assistance in (A)maintaining and improving mental and physicalhealth, (B) ensuring safety and security in an agingsociety, and (C) fostering community health ser-vices and industry. For (A), prevention of demen-tia and the promotion of employment for the el-derly are important. Efforts by government anduniversities are needed to establish a research cen-ter for the prevention of dementia and to constructa systematic framework for the diagnosis of de-mentia after middle age. For (B), barrier-freetransportation and the construction of communitysecurity are important. Efforts by industry, govern-ment and universities are needed to construct acomprehensive community security system and toestablish research centers to consider technologi-cal adaptation for both the elderly and personswith disabilities in order to identify needs and test-ing/evaluating prototypes. For (C), remote pri-mary care is important. Efforts by industry, gov-ernment and universities are needed towards theadvancement of development in remote diagnosticapparatus and the realization of remote health caresystems. Common policies that should be imple-mented by industry, government and universitiesin these three areas are to establish graduateschools for the elderly (for the improvement ofwork skills), the provision of preparatory coursesconnected with the senior years (for lifestyle ad-vice and other such needs) and ensuring the trans-mission and sharing of information throughoutall generations (to prevent the emergence of‘technologically deprived’ persons).

17

2. Policy vision by subthemes

(1) Subtheme 1: Maintaining andimproving mental and physical health

(2) Description

Everyone can obtain his/her accurate health in-formation at various stages of life and can choosea lifestyle (including diet/exercise) and medicaltreatment based on that information in an attemptto maintain mental as well as physical healththroughout life. A mutual support system acrossgenerations is in place to allow people with men-tal or physical problems to live a desired life bycoping with them. Science, technology and socialsystems to fulfill these goals are studied.

(3) Recognition of the current situation

In 2020, Japan will face an increased need for el-derly care and services, with an increased ‘old-old’population (aged 75 or older) and the prospect ofresultant significant increase in the number of el-derly people with dementia. Since the preventionof brain function deterioration among the elderlyshould start in middle age, measures to prevent de-mentia are urgently required. Alternatively, thewillingness to work is high among the ‘young-old’populace (aged 65–74), as demonstrated by thefact (reported in 2004) that 50% of the males aged65–69 are employed and that over 40% of thosenot employed wish to work. This trend is expectedto continue, suggesting the need for elderly em-ployment support.

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Ensuring safety andsecurity in an aging

society

Maintaining andimproving mental and

physical health

Health and Lifestyle in Aged Society

�

�

�

�

�

security systemSafe and low costtransportationDisaster information systemsBarrier-free environmentsMonitoring

Comprehensive community

� Remote primary care system�

�

�

Combined lifestyle support networkElectronic money andregional currencySocial business

People's power

Fostering communityhealth services and

industry

�

�

�

�

�

�

Mechanisms of dementiaSystematic framework forthe diagnosis of dementiaNutritional science for the elderlyImproved QOLEmployment opportunitiesfor the elderly

Brain function research

Education & ResearchInfrastructure

Fostering and promoting researchto learn more about the elderly

Gerontology (study of aging,study of the fulfilling life)

Social objective toward 2020Everyone can live a desired

social life with ensured safetyand security, without

experiencing loneliness.

(4) Conceptual illustration

(4) Policy recommendations

(i) Action to be taken by Japan <Sector incharge; industry / universities / government>

• Establishment of graduate schools for the el-derly based on gerontology (for improvementof work skills) <univ. / gov.>

• Establishment of a research center for the pre-vention of dementia <univ. / gov.>

• Construction of a systematic framework forthe diagnosis of dementia after middle age<gov.>

• The announcement of guidelines based on fu-ture-oriented labor policies <gov.>

• Provision of employment opportunities for theelderly <ind. / gov.>

• Radical review of the seniority system <ind.>

(ii) Science and Technology to be prioritized

• Brain functions research, elucidation of themechanisms of dementia, and basic researchon regeneration of cognitive functions

• Cognitive science• Cognitive engineering to study the mecha-

nisms of the generation of emotion, awarenessand mind.

• Development of devices to measure cognitivefunctions

• Biomedical engineering research and productdevelopment intended to improve QOL

• Life course research, QOL research, researchin subjective standards of happiness, and playresearch

• Gerontology, evaluation of elderly people’sskills, ageism, introduction of universal designinto the workplace

• Nutritional science for the elderly, develop-ment of supplements, diet management manu-als, functionally designed vegetables

(iii) Social systems to be reformed

• Enhancement of work-sharing systems for theelderly (e.g. creating teams combining the el-derly, people with disabilities and people with-out disabilities)

• Enhancement of elderly employment systems(application of an affirmative action program)

• Elimination of age discrimination and reformof both the compulsory retirement and pensionsystems

• Reform of clinical trials legislation• Improvements in the framework for clinical re-

search (development of a research systembased on small combined groups of cliniciansand researchers).

(1) Subtheme 2: Ensuring safety andsecurity in an aging society

(2) Description

All generations, including the elderly, can easilyaccess information on safety and security at theirhomes, understand such information and use it inlife. A safe and secure society is created wheresocial systems and infrastructure are fully devel-oped to support the lives of the socially vulnera-ble. Science, technology and social systems tofulfill these goals are studied.


In 2020, Japan will have an increased number ofpeople vulnerable to disasters, due to the increasein both the proportion of the elderly and theold-old population. However, considering the fi-nancial standing of the central and local govern-ments, future measures against disasters are un-likely to be fully financed by the public sector,and it is expected that self-help and mutual-assis-tance mechanisms will serve as highly effectivemeasures against disasters. Being socially vul-nerable, the elderly are more likely to become tar-gets of crime, and measures are therefore neededto protect them. Another concern is that some el-derly people may become ‘technologically de-prived,’ as a result of failure to keep up with rapidsocial changes, such as the introduction of ad-vanced systems.

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• Construction of comprehensive communitysecurity systems <ind. / univ. / gov.>

• Preparatory courses for old age (for lifestyleadvice and other needs) and graduate schoolsfor the elderly <ind. / univ. / gov.>

• Implementation of policies to support peoplevulnerable to disasters and improve people’spreparedness for disasters <gov.>

• Disaster information distribution and sharing<ind. / univ. / gov.>

• Financial support for R&D of technologies forthe elderly <gov.>

• Promotion of the use of private resources forresearch (for identifying needs and test-ing/evaluating prototypes) <ind. / univ. / gov. /people*>


• Development of safe vehicles and safe and lowcost transportation

• Multidirectional and high-grade TV and audiocommunication systems

• Development and promotion of disaster infor-mation systems (for evacuation guidance andinformation transmission in disaster situa-tions)

• Science and technology for safe housing struc-ture (disaster resistant housing, seismic diag-nosis)

• Risk evaluation, risk management, and re-search in social vulnerabilities

• Technologies adapted to the needs of the el-derly (sensing technologies, monitoring tech-nologies, fall-prevention technologies)

• Technology to utilize lifestyle and health infor-mation, security technology, and privacy pro-tection technology

• Technology to create barrier-free environ-ments, aid and assistance technology, andcommunity formation technology

• Technology to share and use information onthe elderly


• Reform of traffic law• Adult guardianship system (addition of

self-awareness to the criteria to decide im-paired judgment)

*<People> refers to private resources, such as citizengroups, that fall outside existing frameworks such asindustry, universities and government.

(1) Subtheme 3: Fostering communityhealth services and industry

(2) Description

Social business is fostered to make the samehigh-quality health, medical and nursing servicesavailable anywhere, anytime. Health, medicaland welfare industries to meet the unique localcharacteristics and needs are continuously devel-oped. Science, technology and social systems tofulfil these goals are studied.


There is a wide variety among the elderly aged 65or older, with some of them in need of nursingcare or assistance in everyday life whilst othersstill contribute to local business. It is essential forfuture health services to incorporate inter-gener-ational collaboration and mutual assistanceamong the elderly. However, in rural areas, com-munities are finding it more difficult to play theirroles in many aspects of people’s lives, with theelderly accounting for over 50% of the total popu-lation and a very small young proportion as a re-sult of aging and depopulation. Since the dispar-ity in health, medical and welfare services avail-able to the elderly is expected to widen betweenurban and rural areas by 2020, there is an urgentneed for a mechanism through which science,technology and industry support local adminis-tration.

20



• Construction of a mechanism to nurture pri-mary care doctors (establishment of educationand qualification systems) <univ.>

• Advancement of development of remote diag-nostic apparatus and realization of remotehealth care systems <ind. / univ. / gov.>

• Development center for appliances designedfor use by the disabled and the elderly <ind. /univ. / gov.>

• Creation of social business (for creating theliving environment in which local residentscan live in comfort and safety and for compre-hensively supporting the construction ofhealth, medical and nursing systems) <ind. /univ. / gov. / people*>

• Standardization of regional currency and pro-motion of time (labor) banks <gov. / people*>

• Measurement and assessment of regional ca-pabilities (promotion of employment match-ing) <gov.>


• Remote primary care systems (remote opera-tion technology, image processing technology,etc.)

• Public information provision systems• Combined lifestyle support networks• Nursing care streamlining systems (schedul-

ing, effect measuring, nursing-related clericalwork)

• Human interface technologies• Electronic money research


• Review of medical laws• Expansion of discretionary powers and roles of

nursing staff• Definition of service evaluation criteria (dis-

closure of information) and assurance of ser-vice continuity

*<People> refers to private resources, such as citizengroups, that fall outside existing frameworks, such asindustry, universities and government.

1. Overview

(1) Theme name:Media integration and its usage

(2) Social goal

People can enjoy good quality media, and keep ingood contact with other persons beyond the na-tion or outside the existing frameworks. They areincreasingly interested in culture and quality oflife. The roles of individuals becomes importantin creating new culture and new lifestyles, andanyone is able to live the life that he or she de-sires. Information and communication technol-ogy is used for the common benefit of all human-ity, such as health care and sustainable environ-ment.


Human resources and capital investment must beproperly distributed so that integrated informa-tion and communication technologies and userenvironments can be further developed toward2020. The government should make a good use ofprivate capital to the short-term development,and assign public funds to the long-term researchsuch as infrastructures and public databases.

The technology ought to be developed based onsocial acceptance. A fixed percentage of fundsshould therefore be directed towards the researchof social science. Unnecessary regulations andrules should be repealed, but rules that protect in-dividuals are necessary. Regulations should ben-efit both consumers and enterprising.

Information and communication technology isnot just a means of transmitting information, butit should be used for the common benefit of allhumanity. It should contribute to solving environ-mental and health care issues, building a sustain-able society, and creating new culture. Usinggood skills of information and communicationtechnology, Japan has to take the initiative in the

21

new usage of the technology. The ability to gener-ate creative contents such as manga and gamesshould be directed toward the creation of new cul-ture and the building of better lifestyles. Dissemi-


(1) Business perspective

The significance of business communication willbe deepened by the development of the informa-tion networks as social infrastructure beyondtheir current state. Relationships between indi-viduals and organizations will also change. In ad-dition to the activities (or content) of corpora-tions, relationships with other companies (i.e.context) will become important. Although ineffi-cient and unnecessary movement of peoples maydecrease, the importance and depth of face-to-face meetings will increase. Improvements in the

technological support with knowledge process-ing will enhance the significance of high-leveldecisions made by management executives.

The government should remove the unnecessaryregulations, and activate the investment of the pri-vate sectors so that the technological evolutionmay be accelerated.

(2) Social media perspective

The “social media”, that allows interactive com-munication, will become more interactive by theaid of web-related technologies, and the methodof communication services and the contents of in-

22

Security, Privacy Journalism,BroadcastingKnowledge database

Changes inrelationship

between individualsand society

Regulation andInstitutionalization

IP-convergence

Network infrastructure

Social media

Culture, lifestyles, living

Wiki, YouTube, Blogs

Ubiquitous

New economy

Business

Advertising,Pay-per-View,Fix-payment

Web 2.0

Contents

Next GenerationNetworks,

CopyrightEducationDigital

divide

Energy saving

Environment,healthcare

Media Integration and its Usage

Goal in 2020:A society in which peoplecan enjoy quality media

and choose betterlifestyles for themselves

(4) Conceptual illustration

nation of Japanese culture to the world is also im-portant. In content-based business, however, therole of individuals is greater than that of govern-ment, and policies should be aware of this.

formation are altered. The comprehensive man-agement of personal information – even to the ex-tent of assets and liabilities – will become possi-ble, and health care and government services willbecome more efficient. Concern for the environ-ment will accelerate the trends towards greater ef-ficiency. Because our social lives will becomemore efficient, people’s interest will turn towardthe creation of new values, such as new culture.

The processes of producing and distributing me-dia contents will change significantly, which mayalter the business model. Three business models –fixed payment, pay-per-view and advertising –will coexist together for a while, but the conver-gence of media may cause either the choice ofone model or the hybridization of three models.The creative contents will be appreciated glob-ally, and its trade value will increase. Individualswill play a greater role in content creation, andawareness of cultural innovation and of environ-mental issues will grow.

The government should help people to extendtheir capability to create new culture and lifestyleas well as to solve various problems such as thoselinked with the environment, saving energy andso on. The investment of the public sector shouldbe distributed to the development of public andknowledge databases.

(3) Network infrastructure perspective

A drastic renewal of network architecture is re-quired because the current architecture comes toa dead end after the technological maturity. Thenew architecture should withstand the heavy andvarious usages, and it should keep reliability, se-curity, and privacy in itself. Because a social con-sensus on such design concepts is vital, the man-agement that repeatedly runs the cycle from R&Dto evaluation would be necessary.

From a device perspective, density will continueto increase and cost to decrease in accordancewith Moore’s Law, over the next 15years. R&D

that addresses new protocols, optical switching,wide-band radio waves, and ubiquitous chip willbe important. The terminal devices distributingcontents are the advanced versions of television,computer, and mobile phones. Device manufac-turers, telecommunication companies and con-tent providers will drive the technological evolu-tion. The integration of broadcasting and Internetwill advance, and the substantial integration ofmultiple media will occur.

The investment of the public sectors should bedistributed in the long-term research in this field,and the secure network system should be devel-oped under the social consensus. The manage-ment system that allows iterative cycles of R&Dand social evaluation is also necessary.

(4) Regulations and institutionsperspective

The urgent issues of regulations are the copy-right, privacy, and security, which should besolved in a few years. Long-term issues over thenext decade are not clearly identified at present.In any case, we should avoid the situation whereregulations and institutions obstruct technologi-cal evolution, but individuals must be safely pro-tected. The regulation should be beneficial toconsumers and entrepreneurship alike.

The rapid progress of technology and greaterchanges in usage environments can cause dispari-ties among both generations and regions. Weshould take care of the digital divide, because itmay be a serious problem particularly in the ag-ing society of today and the future.

The government should remove unnecessary regu-lations, and must solve not only the current prob-lems concerning copyright, privacy and securitybut also the future problems that will come to us.For that purpose, the government must allocate acertain sum of money to explore the relationshipbetween technology and social systems.

23

1. Overview

(1) Theme name:Towards the realization of a recyclingsociety through the recycling andre-utilization of resources

(2) Social goal

Stable securing and supply of resources, su-premely effective use of cycling systems dissemi-nated worldwide, and construction of a sustain-able low-carbon society.

(Catch phrase for Japan 2020)

In 2020, to contribute to resolving global envi-ronmental problems through the development oftechnology for effective use of resources and thepromotion of Japanese water-related technology.


In order to achieve a recycling-oriented societythrough reuse of resources in Japan in 2020, re-source collection through product material datagathered by lifecycle assessment, research anddevelopment on energy generation through un-used exhaust heat and the development of energyconservation and generation technologies are im-portant. Promotion of the development of softtechnologies to apply and promote hard technol-ogies in society through favorable tax policiesand so on is necessary. The periodic review oflaws and systems together with the allocation andfostering of systems, organizations, and humanresources are also important. In addition, preci-sion monitoring and management, the develop-ment of technologies to upgrade current func-tions such as unrepaired or aging equipment andpolicies to spread Japan’s outstanding environ-mental technologies such as waste disposal andenvironmental cleanup technologies around theworld are vital. In order to address issues that aredecreasing the soundness of the water cycle, suchas frequent flood damage, water quality, impacton ecosystems and loss of water-related culture,

the creation of venues to solve these problems isnecessary. In order to build a sound water-cyclingsociety, a balanced approach that considers as-pects such as energy, logistics and economics aswell as policy, technology and social issues isneeded. It is necessary to construct a comprehen-sive water management system that fully consid-ers management and education concerning cul-ture related to agriculture, fishing and water.These environmental issues should be addressedas problems common to all Japanese people. Thiswill require general dissemination of the perspec-tives of information disclosure and lifecycle as-sessment. Industry, academia and governmentshould collaborate on this.


(1) Subtheme: Atmospheric purification,the reduction gas emissionscontributing to global warming, thecreation of new energy sources and theefficient use and reuse of resources

(2) Social objectives:

Construction of a low-carbon, sustainable societythrough the stabilized securement of necessaryresources and the establishment of a highly effi-cient cyclical system of reuse.


(i) Action to be taken by Japan (Roles ofindustry / universities / government)

• Establish a tax reduction incentives system forthe introduction of systems (e.g. structures,traffic systems, machinery and devices, etc.)that emit only low levels of greenhouse gases,construct a framework for the promotion of thebroad social application of innovative energiesand cutting-edge environmental technologies(grants and subsidies available for initial sys-tem costs), and encourage the interest and will-ingness to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsfrom industry through to individuals (Govern-ment).

24

• Review all legislation on recycling at regular in-tervals; implement policies that will strengthenthe collaborative partnership between industry,universities and the government and private sec-tors, such as the provision of support for inten-sive and effective research and developmentgeared towards the development of measures onsystems, organization, deployment of humanresources, financial support and the reuse of re-sources capable of being applied throughout alllocal governments and municipalities. The needto construct a framework within society that canbe controlled by cutting-edge science and tech-nology (Government).

• In the future, a systematic strategy for the ap-plication of hardware technologies into gen-eral society will be required in addition to thedevelopment of such. In consideration of theimportant contributions to strategy formula-tion that can be made by software and socialtechnologies, due attention should also be paidto the development of these. Being able to con-tribute to global issues in the capacity of theworld leader in environmental business alsorepresents one of the goals that Japan should beworking towards (Industry / universities / gov-ernment).

• The oligopolization of resource measures hasadvanced considerably; Japan now needs toimplement policies for resources includingrare metals that will facilitate change through-out its systems; such as the reuse and recyclingof resources, compensatory measures usingnatural resources, the realization of alternativematerials, resource conservation (material)and accumulation (stockpiling, social stock,etc.). A legislative system requiring the clearlabeling of products with data on the raw mate-rials used will be pushed forward, and the in-troduction of a grant system will be consid-ered, with a view to promoting the introductionof designs which can be easily disassembled(Industry / government).

• Reviews of relevant laws and regulations, ofsystems related to resources, and of educa-tional systems will be implemented; effortswill be made to construct a vibrant social infra-structure through the strengthening of systemsto support both education and manufacturing

in a manner satisfactory to Japanese citizens.There is a clear need to create a vision for thefuture of our society that can inspire youngpeople (Industry / universities / government).


Hardware side

• Although currently being considered in termsof “self-sufficiency” in Japan at present, en-ergy will, at some point, become synonymouswith problems of “supply”, when there are nolonger any importers. As such, low energy andenergy generation technologies will be devel-oped, with a view to achieving a self-suffi-ciency rate of 50% or more that will allow Ja-pan to become a model case for the rest of theworld.

• With regard to local authorities recovering rareand heavy metals from incineration ash and in-cinerator fly ash, the decision as to whetherparts should be initially dismantled or whetherthe metals should be recovered from the ashesafter incineration will be implemented from anLCA perspective; also, there is a need for thedevelopment of technology that will reduce theenergy consumption of incinerators.

Software Side

• Strong priority placed on the development ofsoftware technologies that will advance the so-cial application of technologies (e.g. evaluativeand foresighting technologies on greenhousegas emission levels, checking & managementIT technologies for greenhouse gas emissionlevels, methods for ascertaining social agree-ment on the introduction of new technologies,etc.)

• Dissemination of easily recyclable design andthe development of complete classificationtechnologies undertaken with a view to im-proving recycling rates of used products aswell as at the elemental level.

• There is a need to mobilize diverse technolo-gies, such as biotechnology, crystal control,environmental simulation, marine biology, andremote sensing in order to generate environ-mentally reusable materials from traditionalconstruction materials.

25


Technological support

• In terms of the reuse of resources, classifica-tions are to be made between reverse recycling,where the properties of metals are completelyrestored through electrolyzation, cascade re-use, where properties continue to degeneratethrough reuse, as seen with manufacturingsteel, aluminum virgin alloys and plastic, andcascade waste, where resources are used anumber of times and then discarded. It is cru-cial that, classifications thus made, the reuseand recycling of resources is implementedthrough LCA evaluation, from the perspectiveof energy used and greenhouse gases emitted.

• Measures have been implemented to abolishsmall-scale incinerators and integratelarge-scale incinerations treatment plants, re-sulting from the growing lack of landfill sitesfor incinerated waste and growing concernsabout dioxins. The government should, how-ever, push forward with efforts to produceworld-leading technology and results in suchareas as the recovery of the heat waste gener-ated during incineration.

Business support

• In order to realize a low-carbon society thatuses resources effectively, there is a need to fa-cilitate social rationality (the formation of so-cial consensus) that will bring about reforms inour social systems. This, together with actiontaken to form markets related to energy and en-vironmental systems, should be proactivelysupported by the government, which shouldalso create support systems to reduce the costburdens of these social systems.

• In order to realize a ‘greenhouse gas-free’soci-ety, environmental business needs to firmly es-tablish itself. There is a need to nurture andsupport the establishment of environmentalbusinesses such as labeling businesses, andthird-party performance verification busi-nesses.

Information disclosure

• Having established actual figures on the amountof greenhouse gases being produced annuallyby each person and each household, by creatingsystems to create awareness of this informationthroughout the population and providing datauseful in benchmarking exercises, informationclosely related to environmental problems canbe disclosed and shared with the population.

• When classifying waste into general or indus-trial, local authorities cannot have recovery sys-tems for resources such as rare metals. From theperspective of international competitiveness, norecovery systems other than smelting currentlyexist. There is to be a review of the materialtreated by local authorities, based on the prem-ise that material data can be organized.

• Information is to be proactively communicatedin order that Japanese recycling technologiesfor the bottom ash generated during incinera-tion can be applied to waste material incinera-tion plants throughout the world.

Education

• An academic environment with regard to thereuse of recourses through recycling and envi-ronmental problems is in the process of beingcreated. Education based on a platform for hu-man resources must be created globallythrough collaboration between industry, uni-versities and the government as well as privatesectors.

• With regard to the materials used within theconsumable goods used by consumers, educa-tional campaigns are to be carried out aboutmaterials that will allow consumers to “seewith their own eyes and touch with their ownhands”, thus improving the levels of knowl-edge about materials amongst consumers.

• In order to realize a low carbon society, aframework to support the effective utilizationof energy resources by private consumers (us-ers), from the perspective of drilling, devicesand systems.

26

(Conceptual illustration)

Contribution to the resolution of global environ-mental problems, through the development andadvancement of technologies that use resourcesefficiently

27

(1) Subtheme: Sustainable use of water

(2) Social objectives

Securement of water resources and stabilizationof supply systems in 2020, establishment of cy-clical systems for reuse, securement of safedrinking water


(i) Action to be taken by Japan (Roles ofindustry / universities / government)

• There is a clear need to improve the circum-stances surrounding the water cycle. We needto respond to diverse issues related to the dam-age that has been caused to the soundness ofour water systems, such as multiple incidentsof damage caused by water, problems with wa-ter quality, influence on ecosystems, loss ofaquatic culture.

• A platform through which to resolve issues re-lated to water resource conditions in food-ex-porting countries and levels of food self-suffi-ciency will be established.

• Bottled water to be reconsidered in terms of theenergy used in transportation and the wastetreatment of receptacles.

• In order to construct a sound and renewable so-ciety, grounded in harmony with ecological cy-cles, a balanced framework is required. Policy,technological and social issues need to be con-sidered, together with questions of energy,transportation and economics.

(ii) Science and technology to be prioritized

Hardware side

• Promote technical development for cost reduc-tion, including functional improvements andenergy, in order to respond to the dilapidationof and inadequacies in social infrastructure fa-cilities – e.g. water intake, storage and supplyfacilities – as well as with regard to the lack ofprecise monitoring and appropriate watermanagement throughout the water cycle.

• Promotion of the use of sustainable natural en-ergy, e.g. micro-hydro power generation andsecurement of energy.

• With a view to the promotion of application-appropriate water reuse, promote the dissemi-nation of energy-saving, low-cost water sepa-rating and generating technologies, which ap-ply e.g. high-flux and anti-pollution mem-branes.

• Promotion of forest land management togetherwith afforestation and environmental restora-tion technologies.

Software Side

• Human resources training program to be de-veloped and implemented through a partner-ship between industry, universities and thegovernment in response to the lack of skilledhuman resources.

• Implement measures to disseminate Japanesetechnology to the rest of the world for the reuseof industrial wastewater in factories, advancedas a result of regulations on grounding waterpumping, water shortages as a result of enter-ing regional markets, standards on wastewaterquality and total volume controls.

• Promotion of rainwater use to reduce the bur-den on normal water services as well as thecommunication of relevant information to en-courage the dissemination of the technologiesutilized at large-scale public facilities to eachand every household.

• Trade between water supply & purificationtechnologies and resources (including waterused in the export of manufactured goods)

• Technologies that can ascertain the current sit-uation both inside and outside Japan and fore-see water/energy shortages.

• Systems for the application of appropriate andoptimum technologies whilst facilitating func-tional enhancement.

28


• Containment of water demand through the dis-semination of water-saving devices and waterreuse (Government).

• Expansion of water supply systems possiblethrough social infrastructure maintenance(Government).

• Sophisticated operation of current water man-agement facilities through highly precise wa-ter cycle foresighting (Industry).

• Hydrological and meteorological foresightingthrough accurate global observation (Univer-sities).

• In order to promote efficient agricultural pro-duction, the establishment of reference valuesfor the appropriate use of fertilizers and agri-cultural chemicals (pesticides) (Industry / uni-versities / government).

• Regulations on bottled water (Industry).• Systems that can design models tailored to re-

flect regional particularities (e.g. soil, watersupply, agricultural water, mineral composi-tion, etc.) and environmental cycles.

• Systems to comprehensively manage agricul-ture, fishing industries and aquatic culture (in-cluding human resources development).

29

(Conceptual illustration)

Environmental cleanup advanced through watertechnologies, contributing to the resolution ofglobal water problems.

30

3 Development of health promoting programs and methods for measuring the programs6 Labor support technology aimed at creating an environment where people with elderly

10 Preventive technology for eradicating hospital-acquired infections1 Food and diets aimed at preventing the decline in antioxidant, brain functions2 Functional food suitable for individuals’ constitutions and tastes can prevent diseases8 Systems for providing information on resources and programs available on life stages �

11 Noninvasive bioinstrumentation methods for understanding the behavior of elderly (A) Maintinance of4 Simple testing systems for checking degree of suitability meal ingredients Health (mental &7 Indexes and indexing systems for conducting relative evaluations of individuals’ QOL physical) � �

5 Systems for preventing cerebrovascular dementia by controlling brain functions12 Vita function support systems, such as health check monitors and pacemakers9 Technology for ascertaining the intentions of people who, due to illness

13 Technology for regenerating cognitive functions16 Development of personnel can respond to various inquiries and requests from patients �

15 Systems for storing on one card all medical information pertaining to an individual19 Indexes and indexing systems necessary for creating local communities25 Community security systems supported by cooperation among the parties21 Residential buildings designed with consideration given to the prevention of disaster23 Monitoring system for facilitating inter-party collaboration in regards to elderly people27 Technology for preventing the accidents of elderly people caused by slipping, falling (B) Security for22 Local infrastructure aimed at enabling elderly people to easily acquire risk information Aged Society18 Advanced traveling / walking support devices and systems17 Driving support systems for people who have difficulty driving ordinary cars � �

26 Real-time sensing network wherein elderly people and people with disabilities can act24 Barrier-free modes of transportation so as to realize unrestricted, safe and low-cost20 Residential buildings equipped with robots and devices aimed at helping elderly14 Memory security [backup] systems for the purpose of presenting information30 Systems for setting schedules and sharing information (nursing care)33 Systems aimed at providing information on various public services available to elderly �

28 Development of electronic medical record which can be shared among community �

35 Developer-elderly user networks where elderly users take part in development (C) Regional Health32 Telemedicine systems that enable people to receive primary care at home Care Service34 Electronic (amount-type) [time-based] complementary currency systems available (industry)31 Systems aimed at enabling community to independently secure29 Home security systems that utilize daily life support robots

A-2 NISTEP’s Delphi results

� In topic 7, 8, 16, 17, 28 and 33, the right side of the bar shows the time of social application. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Time of technological realization & Time of social application(The right side of the bar shows the time of technological realization.)

31

03 Diffusion of electronic tags for increasing efficiency in production and distribution while ensuringtraceability of goods for consumers

06 Sharing of electronic medical records among all medical institutions in Japan, which will lead to thedevelopment of advanced telemedicine technology for health care, telediagnosis and telesurgery

08 Promotion of flexible and quick organizational activities in a manner whereby small-sized autonomousorganizations get together for each project via the Internet beyond the boundaries of companies andthen break up when the project terminates

02 Popularization of electronic secretary systems equipped with information agent functions (e.g. schedulingand database access) as well as speech recognition and fuzzy search functions

�

07 Realization of a society where application services for integrated management of several bank accountsor securities accounts in one location are available to everybody regardless of age, or in short, whereindividuals are more active in asset management

1. Business

04 Advanced virtual manufacturing systems and operational systems thereof for supporting the activitiesin the production process, including designing, development, manufacturing, operation, maintenance,and destruction

09 Expansion of a company’s business process beyond its boundary, by way of collaboration andpartnership with customers, suppliers, consumers and other parties concerned

05 Circulation of electronic money that has the same reliability and anonymity as conventional money andhas security functions (personal authentication), at the same volume as the issued Bank of Japan notes

01 Computerization of about 50% of the services provided by specialists such as legal professionals(judges, lawyers), doctors, and pilots, thereby increasing service efficiency more than double

13 Secure use of the Internet whereby people can carry out various procedures with administrative officesby way of online personal authentication without needing to prepare official documents, or the electronicvoting system

14 Contribution of IT to preventing global warming in various aspects, such as reducing unnecessarycosts through optimization of distribution and production processes and mitigating traffic jamswith the use of ITS

15 Provision of real-time translation functions for English conversations in all television programs

16 Systems which store human cognitive knowledge and recognize various objects including buildings,persons, and automobiles from images at an accuracy rate of 90% or more 2. Social Media... �

17 Multimodal human interfaces whereby various sensate input means can be used cooperatively

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

� In topic 2, 7, 11, 16, 20, 21, 22, 25, 26 and 29, the right side of the bar shows the time of social application.


�

32

19 Emotional expression system which can present music and pictures that fit a person’s emotionsbased on images corresponding to keywords

18 Knowledge repository systems which can put necessary information together into a comprehensiblestory based on fragmentary facts and data

11 Implementation of a lifelog project which is aimed to record every activity of one person by sound andimage, and establishment of knowledge repository systems which can pull up necessary informationin an instant

...2. Social Media

12 Development of an artificial agent that can almost completely predict a person’s activity and performit on his/her behalf on the Internet

10 Practical application of interfaces directly connected with the nervous system, not via the five senses,thereby directly exchanging information with the brain

26 Network systems which can completely trace and identify persons who have sent spam mails and theaddresses from which such mails have been sent

�

23 Portable electronic displays that are so flexible, i.e. thin and soft, as to be an alternative to newspaper

21 Central management of the operational procedures for various information devices so as to enableeverybody at home or at their workplace to use such devices smoothly

�

20 Network infrastructure which can automatically provide telecommunication functions that meet qualityrequirements at a fair price

3. NetworkInfrastructure

�

24 Three-dimensional television systems whereby people can see images from various perspectivesnaturally without visual aid

22 Development of high-performance computers whose power consumption per throughput is reduced byabout three digits, thereby providing PetaFLOPS-level computing power for individual computer users

�

25 Display devices that can project images directly on the retina �

29 Systems for automatically checking the data of content harmful to young people that is availableon the Internet

�

28 Technology for automatically extracting meta data of visual and audio content

30 High-resolution motion image distribution systems for searching and distribution of television programs,movies and music works that have been produced over the past several years to decades

4. Regulations andSystems

27 Establishment of copyright management systems that are reasonable for both users and copyrights,so as to encourage the creation and distribution of content

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

� In topic 2, 7, 11, 16, 20, 21, 22, 25, 26 and 29, the right side of the bar shows the time of social application.


�

�

33

10 Power generation system using sunlight and wind power that compensates the outputfluctuation at the time of system coordination

9 Miniaturization and performance enhancement technology using high-efficiency heat storagematerials or micro compressors, and high-efficiency heat pump system using GHG-freefreezing technology

3 Technology for utilizing low-temperature waste heat to be installed to all incinerators,thermoelectric conversion technology

12 Production of fuels and industrial materials from biomass waste materials such aswoodchips at a cost similar to the use of crude oil

2 Power generation with fossil fuels with energy efficiency generally reaching theoretical figures

11 System wherein energy using natural sources can be accumulated so as to ensure stablesupply 1. Energy

1 CO2 separation, storage and fixation technology

8 Ultra-energy-saving technology by way of load control for entire buildings or high efficiencyequipment (reduction by 50% compared to FY2000)

6 Power generation by oceanic thermal energy conversion and tidal power generationtechnology, and system for distribution thereof

5 Technology for extracting and utilizing methane hydrate

7 FBR (fast breeder reactor) system including nuclear fuel cycle

4 Power generation system using cosmic elements

16 Information disclosure system for flow of materials through preparation of materials(material flow) database by different components

13 Technology for the effective recovery of metal from molten fly ash, technology to reduceheavy metals contained in incinerated ash, and technology to utilize slag by way ofestablishing a system for the recovery of products containing rare metals

2. Resources

15 Design and construction technology for buildings that takes into consideration the ease ofdismantling, recycling and reuse

14 Design, production, recovery and reuse system wherein manufacturers’ liability for productsis stipulated and the materials used are almost 100% recycled

17 Biotechnology enabling short-term pollutant treatment

� In topic 14 the right side of the bar shows the time of social application. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


34

21 Social system wherein consensus on environmental and energy issues is reached by way ofrisk communication techniques

22 Technology for clean production and use of coal and crude oil

18 Technology for ultra-safe management and treatment of nuclear energy and radioactive waste 3. Atmosphere

20 Automobile that does not emit any air-polluting gas

19 Social system using carbon-free hydrogen and electric energy

26 System that displays real-time images of water sources and effluent streams whenever watertaps are turned on in people’s households, enabling the users to check the state of the watersource

23 Measurement management system for safety and microbial activity by way of methods suchas bioassays and microarrays

28 Water reuse system in widespread use nationwide (sewage, industrial drainage and rainwater)

27 Technology for energy-efficient and low-cost water separation and purification to whichhigh-flux and contamination-resistant membranes are applied 4. Water

25 System developed throughout the nation to reduce the amount of and effectively utilize sludge

24 Water utilization system to control water for agricultural use and provide groundwater that isdrinkable without treatment

30 Technology for unmanned greening/nature restoration using sensing technologies and robots

29 Water resource management system using Earth observation/weather modification andcontrol systems

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

About the questionnaireSurvey dates: November 19–26, 2007Targets: 1,879 expert consultants of the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy’s Science and Technology Foresight CenterNumber of respondents: 485 (Theme A: 199, Theme B: 123, Theme C: 163; response rate: 25.8%)Method: Online questionnaire answered by respondents over the Internet


A-3 Panel members (Japan)

35

Name Title/affiliation (as of October 2007)

(Chair)Kiyomasa Sugii

Director, IS Laboratory, Secom Co., Ltd.

Hiroko Akiyama Professor, Program of Gerontological Research,Organization for Interdisciplinary Research Project, The University of Tokyo

Shuichi Obuchi Leader, Department for Prevention of Dependence on Long-term Care,Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology

Tohru Kishi Former Vice President, National Research Institute of Police Science

Yoichi Tao Visiting Professor, Center for Continuing Professional Development,Kogakuin University; Advisor, Secom Co., Ltd.

Shinichiro Takasugi Assistant Professor, Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Kyushu University Hospital

Kazumi Takano Professor, Faculty of Social Welfare, Nagano University

Yukihisa Namiki Vice President, Feel Fine Corp.

Yumiko Nara Associate Professor, The Open University of Japan

Hiroyuki Fujiwara Senior Researcher, Disaster Prevention System Research Center,National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention

Hiroyuki Matsuura Director, Department of Gerontechnology, National Institute for Longevity Sciences

Shuichiro Yamamoto Senior Executive Manager, Research Institute for System Science, NTT Data Corp.


(Chair)Yasunori Baba

Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology,University of Tokyo

Ryo Imura Executive Managing Director, Security and Traceability Division, Hitachi, Ltd.

Kazunori Ozaki President, Nikko antfactory K.K.

Mariko Kishi Professor, Faculty of Business Administration, Hosei University

Naohiro Shichijo Associate Professor, Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies,Graduate School of Interdisciplinary Information Studies, University of Tokyo

Koichi Suzuki President, Internet Initiative Japan Inc.

Hideyuki Nakashima President, Future University-Hakodate

Yuichi Nakamura Professor, Academic Center for Computing and Media Studies, Kyoto University

Koichiro Hayashi Vice President, Institute of Information Security

Masaki Hirabaru New Generation Network Research Center,National Institute of Information and Communications Technology

Takakazu Fujimoto Director, Spinal Code Inc.

Masayasu Morita President, hitomedia, inc.

Hiroo Yamagata Senior Consultant, Consulting Division, Nomura Research Institute

36


(Chair)Yasunari Matsuno

Associate Professor, Department of Materials Engineering, University of Tokyo

Taikan Oki Professor, Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo

Naomichi Mori System Development Department, Systems Development Control Department,Environmental Systems Division, Hitachi Plant Technologies, Ltd.

Tomoaki Omura Senior Staff Member, Technology Planning Office, Technology Headquarters,Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.

Kenichiro Saito Deputy General Manager, Research and Development Planning Department,Research and Development Division, Nippon Oil Corp.

Hiroki Hondo Associate Professor, Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences,Yokohama National University

Takashi Matsunawa President, Nikken Sekkei Research Institute

Tadatoshi Kato General Manager, Recycling Planning Office, CSR and Environment Department,Toyota Motor Corp.

Yuji Sugimoto Managing Director and General Manager, Solutions Headquarters, NRE-Happiness

Yuko Sakita Environmental Counselor

Hidekazu Kato General Manager, Environmental Solutions Office, Dowa Eco-System Co., Ltd.

A-4 Tekes panel results1

Overview

Target

Finnish social and health care is based on a syner-gistic approach to improving the quality of lifewith optimal use of resources. The continuous de-velopment work is introducing niche businessconcepts internationally.

Vision for 2030

The vision for 2030 is described in the followingstatements:• There are internationally successful niche

based businesses which effectively exploit theconcept of a health continuum

• The health continuum concept is optimally ex-ploited, providing high added value to society

• The Finnish models for providing care to theaging population have been successfully con-verted to products and services which are usedworldwide

• The selected ways to operate are true win-winsolutions to benefit all parties of social andhealth care

Technological advances are fully exploited in or-der to reduce the amount of routine work in healthand social care. The level of safety and the humantouch make Finland an attractive country for peo-ple to settle in. People from different countriesare coming to spend shorter or longer periods inFinland and enjoy the high quality of services.The production of health is the focus of both pri-vate and public organizations. Its unspoilt natureenables Finland to produce health food products,which are exported worldwide.

37

The Finnish society has made true strategicdecisions and corresponding operations.A number of win-win opportunities have

been created for private and public sectors

A commonly accepted visionhas been created and a

national well being strategywith corresponding resource

allocation has been introduced

Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare for aging society– Vision and goals

Time 2030

Health continuum – TheFinnish social and health care

is based on synergistic approachto improve the quality of life

with optimal use of resources.The continuous

development work isintroducing internationallyniche business concepts.

The Finnish services, products andpractices are successfully turned intoproducts, which are successful around

the world.

Base

Support for newpractices

Solutions

Economic crisis orchange in values

New cost andresource/effective

solutions are needed

International issue of agingpopulation

Lack of proper laborforce

Figure 1. Vision for Finland in 2050

1 The wider report of the Finnish results has been published in the Tekes Review No 227/2008.

The development of new technology takes placein pilot environments to ensure that the customerrequirements are already taken into account at thebeginning of a development project. The goalsand vision are shown in Figure 1.

Policy recommendations (executivesummary)

The responsibility of each individual of his/herhealth must be emphasized more than has beendone so in the past. It has been suggested that thepoor cost/benefit performance of health care inthe USA is partially due to people’s poor lifestylechoices. Low levels of physical activity, com-bined with a high caloric and fatty diet, are prov-ing to be behind this chronic condition.

The lifestyle of the Finnish population is followingthat of the USA. The importance of diet, weightcontrol and proper physical exercise has beendemonstrated in a number of well-controlled stud-ies. The difficult question is how to change the life-style of the majority of the population.

The major recommendations from the panel em-phasized that instead of focusing on single areasand actions, the challenge should be faced by ad-

dressing the whole health continuum, which isdepicted in Figure 2. Increased need for acutecare is avoided if proactive self-care is empha-sized and the policy actions pay attention to thewhole health continuum.

As the conclusion from the panel was that the fu-ture requires integrated approaches and an analy-sis of the health continuum as a whole, there wereno clear policy subthemes for which specific tar-gets would have been developed. There weresome general policy recommendations that helpFinland to create a well-functioning health con-tinuum, which are summarized in Figure 3 andshortly described in the following.

The use of technology in health and social care inFinland is not as effective as it should be. ICT hasincreased the productivity in industry and insome services like banking considerably. Regret-tably, this has not been happening in public ser-vices. There are many projects going on and aconsiderable amount of money and effort havebeen invested in poorly managed operations.

The poor organization and tight budget of the pub-lic social and health care sectors do not permit

38

Continuum of health and illness

PRO-ACTIVE

SELF

CARE

CARE

of

ILLN

ESS

RE-ACTIVE

FitnessWellness

management

Home care &Independent

livingElevated

risk factors

Chronicdisease

Acuteillness

(episode)

Active Health“Worried Well”

Ageing IndependentlyAmbient Assisted Living Disease

Management

Acute Care

Rehabilitation

Figure 2. The Health Continuum

well-managed pilot studies. Even project-basedextra funding does not help, because people areunavailable who are capable of investing sufficienttime and effort in piloting. In addition to this, prac-tical tests of a new radical idea also assumechanges in the practises of the organization. Thisrequires some extra resources available within theorganization. It is well-known that these resourcesdo not exist. The tacit information of the organiza-tion cannot be extracted and applied to improve-ments in ideas and new products.

Before any significant progress can be expected,the present situation must be analysed. The obvi-ous weaknesses must be openly recognized andthe necessary strategic choices made. An under-standing of the operation of the health care sys-tem is still at a very low level. Currently, thechange due to aging will take place within thenext 10 years. This is fast compared to the timeconstants involved in the system. Institutionalpublic health care will react slowly, so the fastest

and probably most cost-effective operations canbe made outside the institutions.

The health continuum concept includes the tightrelationship between the operations to support ahealthy life style and the costs of institutionalhealth care. Institutional care will be replaced byhome care and special senior housing with tai-lored services. Preventive operations will bemore and more important. This situation gener-ates some good business opportunities: Healthfood manufacturers, fitness clubs, home caremonitors, ubiquitous systems, peer group orga-nizers and various cooperatives may find newconcepts which may be marketed internationally.

The funding of the research and developmentprojects should depend on how well they can ex-pect to support the health continuum concept.The scientific basis of projects should be soundand the research is more related to implementa-tion and the demonstration of cost effectiveness.

39

Figure 3. Summary of drivers, solutions and general actions to reach the goals

The problem has been recognized and some oper-ations have already been initiated.

The funding of R&D must be increased consider-ably, and it should be addressing new ideas whichchange the established ways of operating. Thepresent way to support the projects – only if theyare accepted by the established companies – willnot lead to the positive goal desired.

Overview

Target

Media takes an ever-growing share of everydaylife. The media landscape is also rapidly chang-ing, mainly due to technical innovations and theaccelerating adoption of new technology by theconsumer market. The task of the foresight workfor this theme was to first formulate future sce-narios of media use, primarily in Finland from the

viewpoint of media behaviour of people and theirvalues and attitudes.

Vision for 2020

The vision for 2020 for Finland was:

“Finland is a proactive and daring flagship ofthe changing media environment for learning,well-being and entertainment.”

Figure 4 shows how the vision was formed. It wasbased on three larger drivers, which were 1) rapiddevelopment of technology, 2) media as anenabler in societal and business practices and 3)the changing role of users and increased con-sumer power.

The basis of this vision is the current status oftechnically capable Finland, with a high level ofcompetence in key media technology areas:open media platforms, mobile Internet and com-binations of print and electronic media. Thesetechnical possibilities can be considered to be asolid basis for building new user-centered mediaservices.

40

Open media platforms,mobile internet,combinations of

electronic and printmedia

New business models foruser-centered media services

Platforms and developmentprocesses for user-centered

media services

Consumers, media and digital convergence– Vision and goals

Time 2020

Finland is a proactiveand daring flagship ofthe changing media

environment forlearning, well-beingand entertainment.Media business models and technology

platforms that support internationalcontent business

Media platforms

Innovativemediaservicesand support forbusiness and

culture

Developent ofuser-centeredmedia services

New technologicalpossibilities

Demand for personalised medaservices in everyday life

New uses of media ineducation, health,

culture, …

Active media consumers andglobal competition in content

business

Figure 4. Vision and goals for the Finnish converging media andcommunications sector in the year 2020

Policy recommendations(executive summary)

Media cluster development

It is important to recognize that the Finnish mediacluster should be tightened, and it should have astronger supporting R&D network and interna-tional contacts behind it. Media cluster should beclosely connected to nearby clusters. New waysof functioning and collaboration are needed, andthis necessitates global networks and internation-ally visible flagship actors. New investmentsneed to be made in strategically chosen contentand service domains. Learning, well-being andentertainment hold the biggest promise as areasfor content and media services. With adequatesupport for development and access to capital, thegame sector could develop into the cultural pow-erhouse of the Finnish content industry. Beingone of the top five game media countries globallyand a leader in some of the fastest growing sectorsof games and synthetic worlds should be chosenas a national goal.

Understanding of user-driven mediadevelopment and business models

Experimental settings for constant experimenta-tion are needed, and citizens and prospective us-ers should embrace these national and local ini-tiatives and participate actively. There are manyliving labs initiatives currently being run and pre-pared, but it is important that these truly reach theeveryday lives of people, or rather that theywould be welcomed as an integral part of it. Onesolution is to think of this concept of living labsfrom a non-media and IT-centric viewpoint.Finnish media business actors should be leadingthe world in promoting open user innovation, andalso understanding its commercial potential andconnected business models. Finland should takea leading role in creating do-it-yourself mediatools and platforms.

Investment in R&D and education

There is a need to increase R&D funding in themedia cluster. Change will result from a combi-nation of attitude shift in established companiestowards R&D, new clusters of start-ups, targetedresearch programs and expertise networks, and

better quality universities. There is a need to sig-nificantly improve the quality and scope of inter-active digital media research and education inFinland, and quality has to be at the top interna-tional level. Multi-disciplinary education fromvarious domains related to the media field isneeded, especially concerning humanistic andsocietal areas. Journalism education should bedeveloped, but there should also be more empha-sis on media service innovation and media man-agement.

Good innovation environment

New positive business thinking is required: con-crete initiatives to help form new businesses andencourage risk-taking that is targeted for interna-tional success. This necessitates new initiativesfor higher education and venturing. A culture thattolerates failure in business ventures needs to bebuilt and more business expertise is required.There is too long a way from interesting and po-tential areas of content to products, markets andbusiness. This could be a positive challenge forThe Finnish Innovation Fund (Sitra), and theyshould be involved more in planning. New typesof business need to be connected to campuses andtheir vicinity, where new generations of mediause will be incubated and new forms of knowl-edge creation shall flourish. The sector wouldbenefit from professorships which are partlywithin the university and partly in companies.

IPR rules enabling new business

IPR is central to media business, but it can act lo-cally either as a hindrance or as an enabler. IPRlegislation needs to be internationally reconsid-ered, for example, in order to better support openinnovation practices in media.

Cooperation between different authoritiesand funding agencies

Conscious choices on where to put the emphasisneed to be made, and government officials shouldshare the common vision. New tools and fundingstructures may be necessary, and the ICT SHOKcould be important for the future of media. How-ever, current plans include only a small fragmentconcentrating on media, and this will not be largeenough. We should also promote the capabilities

41

and new media literacy of Finnish citizens atlarge (Ministries of Transport, Communicationsand Education).

Policy vision by subthemes

1 User-centered media

Objective for 2020

The role of the media is based on the observed ev-eryday life of people. New media breakthroughscome through projects that involve users from anearly stage. This requires constant measuring,modeling and development in product design, re-sulting in the continuing perfection of services,media and design.

Policy recommendations

Integrating “consumer-driven” and “interactive”to modes of thinking and measurement tools ofthe media industry is important. There is a newset of skills that the traditional media industryneeds to learn on how to understand what the cus-tomers need, and it looks like it is other new play-ers that are taking this role and doing it instead.

A key characteristic of the Internet era is that me-dia is becoming more a service than a packagedproduct. This has to be reflected in how businessis conducted. Mobile is becoming as powerful asPC technology and the two may largely merge bythe year 2020.

Better understanding of the media user experi-ence is important, and human-centric andmulti-disciplinary media research is needed forthis purpose.

Collecting information dynamically and in realtime about the use of products and services repre-sents a key skill for human-centric development.This results in making constant changes and revi-sions in the services, thereby shortening develop-ment cycles drastically. Swarm behaviour is dif-ferent than uses of current social media, and wecan provide new forms of following how the flocksbehave and move vis-a-vis each other. Here newmobile Internet tools are a key enabler.

There needs to be ways to measure success and ex-cellence of user interfaces better. Conceptualizing

42

Consumers, media and digital convergence

Why?Driversandtrends

Changing role of userand bigger consumer

power

Rapid development ofICT technolgy

What?Centralsolutions

How?– skills– practices– co-operation

User centered mediaOpen mediaplatformsPrint 2.0 Mobile internet

Co-operation betweendifferent authoritiesand public agencies

Understanding of user drivenmedia development and

business models

Investment inR&D and education

IPR rules enablingnew business

Good innovationenvironment

Media clusterdevelopment

Learning Wellbeing Culture

Media as enabler innew societal and

business practices


the Social UI may become a critical new businessenabler. People need better tools to control theirpresence in different social circles. Prosumer UIsare also different from consumer UIs, and under-standing this difference is critical.

2 Open media platforms

Objective for 2020

Open platforms should be supported so that wehave an advantage in building new services moreflexibly: open models support professional con-tent creation and can benefit from various formsof “collective human intelligence”.


Core actors need to be located in Finland, but Fin-land also needs to be open to all local and interna-tional actors. In the ICT sector at large, a multi-tude of companies already exist that are buildingtheir business on the open source model, but do-ing integration and services. The same applies todigital media content.

Open innovation models works particularly well fornew media content and services for the benefit ofthe public sector. There are many large-scale effortsthat have the goal of creating major assets from themedia available. Some of these collaborativepeer-produced media products are generated by ac-tive user communities, such as Wikipedia. The un-derlying content production platform, Wiki, is anopen user interface innovation as such.

Open business models can become an integral partof media company strategy and actions. However, itmust be acknowledged that the business modelsand benefits of the fully open IPR model are stillquite foggy. New models may be required, and theexample of dual-licensing from open source soft-ware may also be relevant here.

3 Print 2.0

Objective for 2020

Publishing, print communication and ICT com-bined with new products and services is a uniquecombination globally, and fundamental for theFinnish industrial structure. There is a need to re-define the role of print products in the future land-

scape of media use, as media, ICT and paper in-dustry have a joint future.


Print media is not disappearing, though the forestsector is facing important long-term challenges inkeeping the position it has today on the mediamarket. There is a need to rethink what pa-per-based products are good for in the future, andmost likely they will develop and obtain new fea-tures in the future.

ICT & Forest industry: cross-sectorcollaboration:

Finland has leading expertise globally in the ICTand forest sectors, and the media and communi-cations sector overlaps to a large degree withboth. It is of great national importance for Fin-land how these three sectors could succeed inworking closer together in order to develop newsolutions and new products.

Combining social digital media with print:

When new innovations are considered on the weband Internet, paper is almost always neglected asa possible media. The problem is that paper isseen as old and uninteresting technology. Thereare also only a few web-based tools and servicesfor people to reinvent paper products themselves.

A lesson learned from the ICT sector is to be openand facilitate innovation among end users. Toachieve this, the pulp and paper industry musttake an active role in enabling regular people to becreative with paper, especially using digital toolsand online collaboration. New business modelsfor small-scale publishing allow various forms ofpublishing. New innovative uses for paper couldstart from better use digital tools and online col-laboration, which has been witnessed to work inall-digital media use, and closer interaction withusers as well as obtaining inspiration from the ev-eryday changes in people’s lives.

User-centric print products:

The paper industry has traditionally done rela-tively little user-centric R&D, and could learnfrom the methods now commonplace in ICT,such as human-centric design and user-generatedcontent. This could help in defining how media

43

use in everyday life is changing and exploringinnovatively new uses for paper.

The pulp and paper business may be interested incoming up with new innovative consumer prod-ucts and services. The paper industry should alsoaccept new design and business perspectives. Itmay be useful to compare the situation of somehardware and software giants (Intel, Microsoft,Nokia) and the paper industry. The ICT industryis adapted to understanding the everyday life con-text of their new products and is willing to investmajor amounts of funding to use their own R&Dfor the creation of new markets for IT core prod-ucts such as microprocessors, operating systemsand telecommunications hardware.

It should be the role of the paper industry to showboth consumers and businesses that paper is oftenfar superior to digital alternatives. However, thesituation is changing and the pressures to cutcosts to keep in line with sinking markets and di-minishing profits often mean that little is reservedfor truly novel thinking.

Overview

Target

The focus of the work in society based on energyand material efficiency panel was on the meticu-lous and economical use of resources. Importantaspects to be included were also societal aspectsin the use and reuse of materials and energy. Thetarget was set to envisage Finland as a societyand the country’s competitiveness on the globalmarket.

Vision for 2050

It was agreed that the foresight goal needs to befar enough in terms of time, as in the energy fieldthe infrastructure is very slow to change and in-vestments are commonly made for about 50years. Therefore, the time-span for trends anddrivers as well as the overall vision was set to theyear 2050, and for specific measures the goal wasset to 2020.

44

Energy and material efficiency – Vision and goals

TIME 2050

Models for regulatingand measuring energyand material efficiency

over the life cycle

Understanding of thesustainable use of energy

and materials

Energy and materialefficiency solutions for

current activities

Innovative Finlandinterprets to environmental

sustainability, people’s welfareand economical success.

The key elements of that are toplevel energy and material efficient

solutions and services. InFinland there are internationally

leading professionals andexport companies in these

sectors.

New practices for energy andmaterial efficiency in communities

and society

Societal basis

Support for newpractices

Solutions

Crisis orchange in attitudes

Demand for systematicinnovations and newpractices

Demand for energy andmaterial efficient solutions

Higher energy and rawmaterial prices

Figure 6. Vision for Finland in 2050

The vision for 2050 for Finland was:

“Innovative Finland translates to environ-mental sustainability, people’s welfare andeconomic success. The key elements of this aretop level energy and material efficient solu-tions and services. In Finland, there are inter-nationally leading professionals and exportcompanies in these sectors.”

Policy recommendations(executive summary)

To achieve the vision, several pre-requisitionsmust be taken into consideration. Attitudechanges towards energy and environmentalsustainability are needed (Figure X). Addi-tionally, the challenges faced by climate changemust be taken seriously on all levels. Higher en-ergy and raw material prices will create a betterunderstanding of the sustainable use of energyand materials, but energy and material efficiencysolutions will demand better environmental com-petence throughout all sectors. What is essentialis the role of directives and regulations to supportdevelopment.

In order to achieve this vision, education andtraining on energy and material efficiency on alllevels – from primary education to the continuingtraining of professionals – should be developedand improved. Entrepreneurship should be sup-ported by providing education and further train-ing for companies. Investment in stronger andmore competent bases of basic and applied re-search in material and energy efficiency as wellas in capacity building enables industry to adaptresearch results, demonstrate findings and de-velop new business opportunities. On the con-sumer level, a major change in consumption be-haviour and attitudes is necessary. It can beachieved with education, but also with active in-formation dissemination and advice, demonstrat-ing good examples, and economic benefits. Thedevelopment of indicators suitable to measureand monitor energy and material efficiency is im-portant to present results, but also to further de-velop current systems. Legislation, regulationsand various incentives and taxation should be inline with sustainability goals, and research is alsorequired in this area.

45

Energy and material efficiency

Sustainable communities,housing and everyday mobility

Environmental skills andcontrol in society

Energy production – Local smallscale production and CO2

Sustainable use of resourcesand materials

R&D and education – skills forcreating solutions

Change in values, attitudesand behaviour

Strategic will andacceptance of

regulation

Economic incentivesbased on accepted

indicators

Indicators forsustainability

Criteria forsustainability

Energy and materialefficiency solutions for

major industrial clusters

Support for developingenergy and materialefficient solutions




Potential internationalcrisis

Values and attitudes,global politics

Pressure on traditionalway of life and doing

business due to globalintegration

Climate change, globalcompetition of energyand other resources


New energy and material efficient technologyand applications should have a priority for R&Dsupport and market incentives, e.g. risk financ-ing. The production and marketing of energy- andmaterial-efficient products should have extrasupport in order to lower the risk of companies.Entrepreneurship should also be supported bynew and flexible funding options and start fund-ing. Public support – e.g. public procurement –for public transport and other sustainable mobil-ity options would increase their attractiveness.Energy storage and distribution technology andsystems need to be developed to avoid lossesthrough the process. Technology needs publicsupport through, e.g. investment and R&D sup-port. New inexpensive technological solutionsfor small-scale production of solar, wind andbioenergy applications could ensure faster mar-ket uptake. These are important, especially in ru-ral areas. Public transport services need to be de-veloped to better meet the needs of consumersand society.

The strategy towards energy and material effi-cient society must be a long-term, continuously

updated/developed and continuing process. Stra-tegic will is important on the political level aswell as in companies.

Policy Vision by Subthemes

1 Spatial planning, housing andtransport

Objective for 2020

Developing a dense and mixed urban structurewith well-functioning rail transport. In the urbancommunities, distances to work, services and rec-reational areas are close to home. Finland will beglobally competent in producing public transportsolutions and products in addition to low-energy,material- and energy-efficient products and ser-vices.


Finland needs to invest in research, developmentand innovation (R&D&I) activities, educationand capacity building in the sectors and provideappropriate and sufficient regulation and supportmechanisms.

46

Spatial planning, housing and transport




Renovation of existinghouses and areas

ICT solutions andtelepresence for work

Smart low energy homes(also for export)

Public transport systems

Energy and material efficiencyindicators and life cycle models

for urban spatial planning

R&D&I andinvestments inpublic transport

Use of waste energye.g. from waste water

Tax incentives andregulation for

housing and transport

Energy and material efficient servicese.g. retailing, waste management,

car sharing etc.

ICT solutionsAging

Pressure to minimienergy consumptio

and CO emissions (andhence pressure oncurrent low densityurban structures)

2Changing basis of

wellbeing andhappiness

Housing regulation

R&D&I activities fordeveloping energy and

material efficient housing


material efficient services

Figure 8. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of spatialplanning, housing and transport.

Central solutions to reach the goals are the reno-vation of existing houses and areas, smart low en-ergy homes, energy and material efficient ser-vices (e.g. retailing, waste management, car shar-ing), ICT solutions and telepresence for work andpublic transport systems (Figure 8). The centralsolutions can be supported by developing energyand material efficiency indicators and monitoringas well as life-cycle systems for spatial planningand land use. Legislation and specific regulationstowards energy- and material-efficient buildingsand components must be improved. Public trans-port services must be improved, and one optionfor that direction is to develop sustainable pricingsystems in mobility and transport sector.

2 Energy and material efficiency ofindustrial production

Objective for 2020

Finland will be a top exporter of energy and mate-rial efficient products and services. There will beinternationally leading Finnish manufacturersand exporters on the global market in certain sec-tors: forest and metal industry, alternative trans-

port fuels, water purification technology and ICT.Some areas of chemical industry could also beFinland’s strengths. These strengths are based onlong experience and know-how in energy-inten-sive processes and the metal industry, which fa-cilitates new business areas in smart processesand the management of material and energyflows.


Central solutions in reaching the goals are glob-ally competitive energy- and material- efficientproducts, regulation that supports energy and ma-terial efficiency, energy and material efficientservices, and understanding as well as managingenergy and material flows together with smartprocesses (Figure 9).

To achieve the goal and support solutions, com-petence must be ensured by investing in basic re-search and improving the vocational education ofexperts as well as supporting entrepreneurship.Investments in R&D&I for activities in material-and energy-efficient industry as well as support

47

Energy and material efficiency in industry

Globally competitive energy andmaterial efficient products

Understanding andmanagement of energy and

material flows

Regulation that supports energyand material efficiency

(positive feedback)

Smart processes


for industrial products

Support mechanismfor energy and

material efficiencyin R&D projects

Basic research e.g. onmaterial and energy

flows

Standards and publicprocurement

Energy and materialefficient services

Support forcommercialisation, e.g. pilotprocesses, entrepreneurship


material efficient industry

Education forexperts in process

engineering,chemistry etc.




ICTRegulation and

potential unequalregulation

environment

Higher energy pricesand pressure toward

lowering COemissions

2

Global competition

Figure 9. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of energy andmaterial efficiency in industry

mechanisms for the commercialization of new in-novations. Material- and energy-efficient solu-tions should be supported with lower taxationthan the conventional ones. Indicator and life-cy-cle systems for material and energy efficiency in-dustrial products must be developed.

3 Energy production – CO2 and smallscale

Objective for 2020

The objective is to maintain sufficient energyproduction to ensure people’s equal welfare. Inthe year 2020, there is a 30% reduction of CO2emissions and use of natural resources in energyproduction, and everyone has an equal opportu-nity to use energy. Local energy production is im-portant to ensure the security of supply and localindependence.


Local energy production is possible by utilizingpassive solar energy and passive cooling. Wasteas an energy source will present opportunities for

local production. New alternative technologies,e.g. small-scale bioenergy and solar heating aswell as electricity solutions for energy generationare developed. Infrastructure and electricity dis-tribution systems support local small-scale pro-duction (Figure 10).

Local production requires specific support mech-anisms, e.g. feed-in tariffs, and renewed taxationsystems from the government. Also, housing reg-ulation needs to be developed. The small-scaleenergy production infrastructure must be under-stood to facilitate proper distribution and logis-tics systems. Investments in R&D&I activitiesensure development of new systems and services.The central drivers are based on a need to improveenergy production more efficiently and reduceCO2 emissions. Climate change requires actionsto reduce CO2 emissions and CO2 tax on energyproduction is evident. The efficient use of re-sources, e.g. waste energy, is an effective driver.Security of supply must be ensured with localproduction. Small-scale solutions are essential inrural areas.

48

Energy production – CO and small scale2

Use of ”waste” heat

Use of passive cooling

Electricity distribution andother infrastructure systems

support small scale production

Use of passive solar heat

Better understanding of the prosand cons of small scale systems(e.g. ccs, distribution, logistics)

Specific supportmechanisms

(e.g. feed-in tariffs)

Understanding of localenergy resources

Energy taxation thattakes CO into account2

Technologies for small scalebio, solar etc. electricity

and heat

Housing regulation

R&D&I activities for developing smallscale energy systems




Efficient use ofresources, including

waste

Climate change andpressure for lower CO

emissions. Globalregulation of

2

Co2

Need for security ofsupply

Need for small scaleheat and power

production systemsin less densely

populated and ruralareas

Figure 10. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of energy production

4 Sustainable use of resources andmaterials

Objective for 2010

The target for sustainable use of resources andmaterials was set for the year 2010. Sustainableuse is in line with the current trend of limited sup-ply of resources and materials. Sustainable use ofmaterials and resources covers the essential re-sources for Finnish industry. Forest-based rawmaterials from the pulp and paper industry andwood energy production; biomass and peat forenergy production, minerals and water resources.Sustainability in material and resources use isstill underdeveloped and provides several possi-bilities for new solutions and businesses.


The most important solutions towards sustain-ability are increased recycling and reuse of mate-

rials and products, utilization of waste and sideflows in processes (Figure 11). Industrial ecologyprinciples provide new production solutions andinnovations. Holistic planning of natural re-sources through the whole life cycle producesnew services and systems in industry.

Basic research on material and energy flows andunderstanding of material life-cycle models mustbe in place. National and international regulationmust be supportive to the recycling and reuse ofproducts. New criteria, methods and technolo-gies for sustainable use of materials need to be de-veloped, and local social and economicalsustainability require models. A realistic under-standing of the exploitation potential of naturalresources can be achieved through education andresearch. It is also important to use the utilized re-sources to the fullest through, e.g. collaborationwith other industries.

49

Sustainable use of resources and material

Increased recyclingUtilisation of side flowsand waste

Holistic planning of the whole lifecycle ofnatural resources in different industries

Technologies that support efficientuse of the natural resources

Understanding of available naturalresources and sustainable consumption

level n Finland and globally

Basic research e.g. onmaterial and energy

flows

Industrial ecology

Models for social andeconomic sustainability

locally

Criteria and models forsustainable use of materials

Regulation thatsupports re-use and

recycling




Damage to the environmentLimited resources and higherprices

Ingreasing demand for energyand other natural resources

globally

Figure 11. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of sustainableuse of resources and material

5 Environmental competence andsocietal management

Objective for 2010

A sustainable society ensures that basic educa-tion and competence levels are good and regula-tive measures ensure active development.


The goal is to increase Finnish exports, whichcalls for competent expertise also in political de-cision-making and in the public and private sec-tors to facilitate the implementation of actions.Central solutions to achieve the target are compe-tent skills for energy and material efficiency ac-tivities, which ensure the competence and com-petitiveness of the industries (Figure 12). Regula-tion and procurement methods must be efficientand effective. For implementation, the commu-nity needs to support peoples’ well-being andhappiness.

Competence can be ensured by investing sub-stantially in education and training energy andmaterial efficiency for all, from primary schoolsto advanced and continuing education at work.Primary education is insufficient and too slow tobring change and improvement in competence,and therefore capacity building must cover soci-ety as a whole at the same time. Basic research onmaterial and energy efficiency must be investedin, and new regulations and support mechanismsmust be developed accordingly. Regulation andsupport for procurement test beds and commer-cialization are needed. There is need for newlife-cycle models and indicators to monitor en-ergy and material efficiency as well. To changeattitudes and behavior, sufficient information,e.g. through education is needed as well as bestpractices and evidence of benefits both in termsof sustainability and economy.

50

Environmental skills and management in society

Competitive industriesEfficient and effectiveregulation and procurement

Basic skills for everyone– primary education

Basic research e.g. on material andenergy efficiency and market

regulation and support mechanisms

Skills for energy and material efficient activities

Regulation andprocurement test beds

Education and energy andmaterial efficiency skills in

many disciplines

Support to wellbeing andhappiness

Need for political decisionsand regulation

Globalisation andmore complex and

wider networks

Climate change and limitedresources

Support for commercialisation, e.g.pilot processes, entrepreneurship





Figure 12. Drivers, solutions and actions to reach the goals of environmentalskills and control in society

Economical and administrative control in theright direction is essential, and that calls for im-proved competence and skills from decision-makers in order to make educated decisions.Encouraging regulative measures speeds up de-velopment. Climate change and limited re-

sources are effective drivers for improvingcompetence in the society. Globalization re-quires new skills and expertise to manage ineconomic competition. Wider and more com-plex professional and economical networksneed new skilled people.

51

A-5 Tekes Delphi results

52

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

W5.6 Public transport systems that supportthe personal mobility of elderly

and disabled people.

W1.8 Personalized fitness programs andcentres for the elderly.

W5.7 Design guidelines and requirements forpublic spaces where anyone can move around

safely and without barriers.

W4.1 Health services based on telemedicine services(in which a doctor performs diagnosis over the Internet)

and medical data obtained at home or at field.

W.10 Personal fitness programs and equipment to improvemobility and balance, which significantly decrease

the accidents caused by slipping, falling etc.

W4.2 Sharing among all care providerorganizations of all relevant

customer & patient data.

W1.9 Computer games and virtual worlds designedfor the elderly, including interactive, networking

and games demanding physical activity.

W1.2 Methods and technologies toprevent osteoporosis.

W1.7 Methods to diagnose and treat sleepdisorders for "Healthy sleep".

W5.4 Services that allow family members to monitoreach other's safety and health remotely.

W1.3 Personalized nutrition to fight obesity.

W4.4 Agents (both real and internet based) that brokerand organise services for the elderly.

W5.3 A functioning market that meets the needs ofelderly for housing arrangements (e.g. LOHAS

(Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) housing,adaptable houses and apartments etc.)

W1.4 Diagnostic tests (based e.g. on gene technology)to predict the risk for life style related diseases

(e.g. cardiovascular disease, diabetes).

W3.2 Computerized solo or group psychotherapysystems for preventing and treating

mental disorders.

W1.5 Methods to diagnose the risk fora neurodegenerative disease

(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).

53

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

W1.1 Prevention oriented healthcare: Shifting from thecurrent reactive diagnosis and treatment approach

to prospective assessment, personal health planning,and selective individual treatment.

W5.9 A work environment in which elderly people cancomfortably work fully using their abilities, and

work support technology for constructingsuch an environment.

W2.4 Drugs that are effective in fighting obesity.

W2.3 Oral administration of insulin

W3.6 Implanted medical devices for incontinencycontrol (urination control).

W5.2 Technology for advanced mobility/ walking supportthat can dramatically improve the social lives

of elderly and disabled people.

W5.8 A wearable system that provides helpful informationfor the elderly in urban public spaces so that they can

freely and safely move around (based onubiquitous computing, integrated sensors

and sensor networks).

W4.3 Implanted ID chip to automatically identifya person e.g. in emergency care.

W5.1 An affordable, accessible, smart home with devicesand robots that assist an elderly person in eating,

bathing, using the toilet, and enjoying free timewithout help from a caregiver.

W2.2 Drug delivery systems (DDS) with sensors enablingclosed loop control e.g. for pain, blood pressure

or diabetes management.

W5.5 A driving assistance system for people whohave difficulty in driving or are unable to drive

ordinary cars because of age-related problems.

W3.5 Implanted medical devices that are powered bybio-energy sources such as body heat or blood flows

(e.g. health condition monitoring andcardiac pacemaker).

W2.5 Drugs to cure Alzheimer's disease.

W3.1 A nursing-care robot that can assist a caregiver inbathing without making the patient feel uncomfortable

or uneasy. 39 Artificial limbs with sensation.

W2.1 Personalized Medicine: Prescription of drugs is basedon a patient’s symptoms, patient’s genetics andthe body’s cellular response to drug compounds

(Pharmacogenomics).

W1.6 Methods to prevent a neurodegenerative disease(e.g. Dementia or Alzheimer's).

W3.4 Regenerative medicine based on bio-hybrid tissuesand organs to replace damaged and/or failing

tissue and organs.

W3.3 Stem cell therapies to replacefailing organs

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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

M3.13 A system capable of identifying the onlinecontent harmful to young people and

automatically checking it.

M1.6 All media devices at home can be controlledthrough single user interface.

M2.9 2 D barcodes or RFID or suchlike, which can be readby a mobile phone or other mobile terminal,

are widely used in different applications.

M2.2 In such fields as art, theater, cinema, music, andliterature, there are artistic activities whose viability isthreatened due to a very small consumer population.

Such small-scale artistic activities can be madeeconomically viable not by increasing

M3.10 Search technology that allows searchers to findthe desired information through fuzzy instructions.

M1.10 Educational games are commonly usedfor supporting learning in primary and

secondary education.

M3.8 Technology that allows to utilize networked,but heterogeneous, global information sources

(the Web, etc.) like an encyclopedia(including a summarization function of importantitems and a question-and-answer mechanism).

M3.7 A system capable of automatically retrieving fromthe network new information and valuable knowledge

with high relevance to the specified topic andpresenting them.

M1.1 A virtual company, with 100 million revenue(among 400

€

largest companies in Finland), that has nooffice building and conducts all business operations

over the Internet (using e.g. virtual technology).

M3.11 Search technology that allows searchers to findthe desired information using instructions given

with sensible, natural language sentencesin everyday use.

M2.6 A high-resolution video distribution systemallows searching

thatthrough and distribution of TV, film,

and music archives of the past few years.

M2.5 Significant share of TV content is watchedon mobile terminals.

M1.2 A remote distributed conferencing system withrealism that

highenables, with the aid of a virtual agent,

participants to shareinformation material andhold natural-language conversations.

M2.1 In TV and other broadcasting media, advertisingmaterial can be adapted to individual viewers.

M1.4 A display device that allows people to enjoymovies anywhere, anytime by directly projecting

images on their retinas.

M2.3 Traditional and participatory media have largelyintegrated and half of the content in a national

newspaper is produced by the readers.

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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

M2.4 Use of on-demand TV exceeds the useof broadcasting TV.

M2.7 Electronic media applications, e.g. voice,can be integrated in paper based productsand it is possible to produce these in large

amounts quickly.

M1.8 A portable digital display that is so flexible(thin and soft) that it can be substituted

for newspaper.

M3.9 A system that can construct a text-based easy-to-understand story from fragmented facts and knowledge

and show it as a presentation (and can also addpresumably necessary figures and images

when instructed). Automatic system(expert systems) that subs

M1.11 Each citizen as an individual digital space thatcan be used anytime and anywhere and

allows managing personal life and e.g. public services.

M1.3 Half of working people are working remotely from homeor other proper places using virtual technologies that

allow sufficient social contacts with co-workers.

M3.1 Widespread use of electronic secretary terminals thatoffer functions such as voice recognition and fuzzy search,

in addition to the information agent functions forschedule management and access to databases.

M1.5 Widespread use of a system that allows people toremotely enjoy paintings or music performances as

if they were actually walking around a gallery,looking at each painting, or sitting in a concert hall,

listening to a live performance.

M1.7 Widespread use of 3D TV that may bewatched without wearing special glasses

and feeling fatigue in homes.

M1.9 All schoolchildren have an electronic rucksackwith multifunctional paper like-terminal.

M3.2 A portable conversation device that allowspeople with disabilities to convert their

thoughts into speech.

M3.12 An artificial intelligence chip capable ofunderstanding human feelings

from facial expressions.

M3.6 Widespread use of a telephone withreal-time language translation capability.

M2.8 Mobile electronic devices will substitutemajority of printed books in fiction.

M3.3 Technology that allows the computer to electricallyand magnetically read the information recorded

in the human brain.

M3.4 Discovery of a mechanism for the human brainto directly receive a greater amount of information

faster by means of systems other than the visual (text)and auditory (sound) systems.

M3.5 An external brain function system that is wearableand operable through a natural interface and can store

general knowledge like dictionaries as well asa large amount of personal knowledge,experience,

and information to extend and enhance the brain

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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

E1.3 A design scheme for civil engineering structures andbuildings that adopts the concept of

ife cycle assessment (LCA).

E1.10 Technology for the early detection of and responseto large-scale forest fires around the world.

E1.2 Application of prediction and assessment technologiesand processes in planning that are useful for the minimization

of environmental burdens on spatial planning.

E1.5 LED-technology is the leading technology forlightning in homes, offices etc.

E4.4 Energy and material saving services offering companies(ESCO and MASCO) are commonly used in developing

energy and material efficiency in industries, other businessand public entities.

E4.6 All products include informative description coveringinformation about production, material balances

and emissions levels.

E4.2 Methodology for tracing and identifying materialssuitable for recycling (plastics and metals).

E1.1 Smart homes and smart offices, in which electronics,media, and internet are seamlessly connected, and the

system controls and optimises also lightning and temperaturetaking into account circumstances and need.

E2.9 Awareness of energy and material consumption andsustainability is raising and this leads to significant changes

in energy consumption, energy production and energy andmaterial saving through consumer choices and market demand.

E2.3 Development of alternative substances or processes forSF6 gas (sulfur hexafluoride; used e.g. cooling, insulating, and

arc quenching in electrical equipment), which has beenadditionally listed as a regulated substance by the Kyoto Protocol

E1.4 Applying planning approaches and technological solutionsreduce energy onsumption per capita in new housing areas

(including heating, lightning, appliances, local transport of goodsand people, etc.) in Finland by half.

E4.3 Consumers, companies and public purchasers buyservices or lease or lend durables instead of

purchasing material products.

E4.5Packaging of consumer goods is mainly basedon reuse systems.

E1.7 Passive solar energy is used largely in housing.

E2.5 Most companies and public organisations, regardlessof size, go paperless and improve productivity as well as

energy and material efficiency through the digitization.

E2.8 Manufacturers' responsibility (producer responsibility) forcollecting and processing of discarded products is defined by law,and reuse and recycling systems in which more than 90% of used

material is reused or recycled become widespread in most pro

E3.1 The need for transportation of material and people issignificantly decreased by the use of IT

(like traffic demand management systems).

E3.5 Car sharing and other forms of joint use of carsare widely used in large cities.

E4.1 Extraction and separation technology of metallicelements based on biotechnology.

E1.8 New technology related to use of water (e.g. low wateror waterless cleaning clothes, dish washing etc.) and in wastewater systems lead to a significant reduction in the amountwaste water (prevention of waste water as a guiding principle)

of

E3.4 Common distribution systems across urban areas thatreduce the urban traffic needs stemming from an increasedvolume of small-package deliveries due to the proliferation

of e-commerce.

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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

E1.9 In the dense housing areas transportation ofthe recyclables and disposable wastes are

organized by so called central vacuumwaste sorting/transpartion system.

E6.5 Co-generation of electricity, heat, fuels and cattle feedor compost by efficient small scale plants (micro

cogeneration in households etc.) that use local biomateriallike household and garden waste, weeds etc.

E3.6 In urban areas private vehicle transportation is replacedby public transportation, walking and cycling, that are

made attractive e.g. by new innovations in information,comfort, traffic safety etc.

E6.6 Formation of international consensus on the COstorage in oil and gas fields

2

andbrine-filled formations.

E1.6 Technology that allows waste treatment and recyclingto be performed locally by each house or household to

eliminate emissions and the need for collection.

E5.1 The processing and conserving of food is to large extentbased on eco efficient processes like fermentation

and drying by solar energy.

E2.7 A portable digital display that is so flexible(thin and soft) that it can be substituted

for newspaper.

E5.3 Majority of the food consumption is produced locally(near-production) and energy and material efficiency

in the production and logistic chain is reduced.

E2.4 Technology that achieves energy and space savingsthrough a major industrial plant downsizing

(1/ 2 to 1/ 10 of current size) or a dramatic improvementin plant serviceability by introducing modules in workflows,

recombining modules, and constructing

E6.3 Fuel cells for medium- and large-scaleelectricity generation.

E3.2 Fuel cell powered transport systems arewidely used (automobiles, ships, etc.)

E2.1 Motors and other industrial electric power apparatusesutilize high-temperature superconductivity.

E6.4 Large-area thin-film solar cells are used in electricpower generation in areas that have electricity

distribution network.

E2.6 Half of working people are working remotely from homeor other proper places using virtual technologies that allow

sufficient social contacts with co-workers.

E2.2 Optimizing technology on energy usage in productionprocesses by means of large-scale energy storage system(superconductivity technology, a flywheel, a capacitor, etc.)

E3.3 Wind and solar power is widely used in ships.

E6.2 Hydrogen production processes based on solar heat,thermochemical method using nuclear heat or other

environmentally viable technology.

E5.2 The food consists mainly of vegetables, and thisreduces significantly environmental impacts like

green house gas emissions.

E6.1 Nuclear fusion electric power generation.

A-6 Panel members (Finland)

Project team

Eija Ahola, Tekes

Jukka Viitanen, Tekes / FinNode Japan Innovation Center

Alina Pathan, Gaia Consulting Oy

Mari Hjelt, Gaia Consulting Oy

Mikko Syrjänen, Gaia Consulting Oy

Theme A)Health care and Well-being to Prepare for an Aging Society

Panel chairman

Raimo Sepponen, Helsinki University of Technology

Panel members

Timo Ekroos, Development centre for devices for independent living

Jarmo Eskelinen, Forum Virium Helsinki

Pentti Itkonen, Ministry of Social Affairs and Health

Pekka Kahri, Tekes

Pirkko Karjalainen, Central Union for the Welfare of the Aged

Mauno Konttinen, Stakes – National Research and DevelopmentCentre for Welfare and Health

Samuli Saarni, National Public Health Institute in Finland

Niilo Saranummi, Tekes

Hilkka Tervaskari, Finnish Well-being Center Oy

Erkki Vauramo, Helsinki University of Technology / HEMA

Theme B)Counsumers, media and digital convergence

Panel chairman

Marko Turpeinen, Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan andHelsinki Institute for Information Technology

Panel members

Timo Argillander, Digital Media Finland Oy

Kari Hjelt, Nokia Research Center

Helene Juhola, Federation of the Finnish Media Industry

Oskar Korkman, Vectia Foresight

Göte Nyman, University of Helsinki

58

Petteri Repo, National Consumer Research Centre

Risto Setälä, Tekes

Pirjo Tiainen, MTV MEDIA

Janne Viemerö, Tekes

Theme C)Energy and material efficiency

Panel chairman

Jouko Kinnunen, Motiva Oy

Panel members

Reetta Anderson, YTV Waste Management

Erja Heino, Finnish Association for Nature Conservation

Mikael Hildén, Finnish Environment Institute

Helka Julkunen, WWF Finland

Pentti Lahtinen, Ramboll Finland Oy

Tarja Laine, Uusimaa Regional Environment Centre

Irmeli Mikkonen, Motiva Oy

Jussi Mykkänen, Vaisala Oyj

Aleksi Neuvonen, Demos Helsinki

Raija Pikku-Pyhältö, Tekes

Jyri Seppälä, Finnish Environment Institute

Eero Siitonen, Inesco Oy

Risto Talja, Metso Paper Oyj

Harri Turpeinen, Neste Oil Oyj

59

Tekes Reviews in English

243/2008 Foresight for Our Future Society – Cooperative project between NISTEP(Japan) and Tekes (Finland). Mikko Syrjänen, Yuko Ito and Eija Ahola (editors).59 p.

241/2008 FinNano Programme – Intermediate Evaluation. Pekka Koponen,Juho-Kusti Kajander and Matti Kuusisto. 20 p.

239/2008 BioRefine Programme 2007–2012. Yearbook 2008. Eija Alakangas & TuulaMäkinen, eds. 130 p.

236/2008 Major challenges for the governance of national research and innovationpolicies in small European countries. Mari Hjelt, Pim den Hertog, Robbinte Velde, Mikko Syrjänen and Paavo-Petri Ahonen. 65 p.

232/2008 Future of Enterprise Mobile Devices – From Tornado Age through Value Messonwards to Mobile Things That Think. J. Kotovirta and M. Nurmela. 19 p.

231/2008 Mobile Enterprise Applications and Business Models. 24 p.

228/2008 MASI Technology Programme 2005–2009. Yearbook 2008.

227/2008 Social challenges as the basis for foresight – Cooperative project betweenNISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland). Mikko Syrjänen and Alina Pathan (Eds.)127 p.

224/2008 Nanosafety in Finland – a summary report. Tuomas Raivio, Piia Pessala,Mari Hjelt, Pirita Mikkanen, Hanna Kahelin. 17 p.

219/2007 VICTA – Virtual ICT Accelerator. Final Report. 25 p.

214/2007 Universities, industrial innovation and regional economic development.A report of local innovation systems. Editors: Richard K. Lester andMarkku Sotarauta. 231 p.

213/2007 Trends and Opportunities in Packaging R&D in the US. Niels Hauffe,NWV Market Discovery, Inc. 54 p.

212/2007 Consumer Packaging in Poland, Czech Republic and in Moscow Area. 50 p.

207/2007 MASI Technology Programme 2005–2009. Yearbook 2007. Eija Alakangas &Pekka Taskinen (eds.)

206/2007 Update of GIGA-VAMOS – Technology Roadmap. Mikael von Hertzen,Juhani Timonen, Pekka Huuhka. 93 p.

205/2007 Seizing the White Space: Innovative Service Concepts in the United States.Peer Insight. 76 p.

202/2007 Five Steps for Finland’s Future. Pirjo Ståhle (ed.). 42 p.

200/2007 Innovation, Journalism and Future. Erkki Kauhanen and Elina Noppari. 88 p.

196/2006 E-Business Logistics Visions, Innovations and Research. ELO – E-BusinessLogistics Technology Programme 2002–2005. Heikki Kekäläinen (editor). 91 p.

Subscriptions: www.tekes.fi/english/publications

http://www.tekes.fi/english/publications

Foresight for Our Future Society– Cooperative project between

NISTEP (Japan) and Tekes (Finland)

–

Tekes Review 242/2009NISTEP Policy Study No 14

January 2009ISSN 1797-7339

ISBN 978-952-457-255-2

The Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and InnovationKyllikinportti 2, P.O. Box 69, FIN-00101 Helsinki, Finland

Tel. +358 1060 55000, Fax +358 9 694 9196, E-mail: [email protected]

NATIONAL

INSTITUTE OF

SCIENCE AND

TECHNOLOGY

POLICY

National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP)Central Government Building No.7. East Wing 3-2-2 Kasumigaseki,

Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0013, JapanTel. +81-3-3581-0605, Fax +81-3-3503-3996

E-mail: [email protected] http://www.nistep.go.jp/

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