Foresight Exchange Workshop · prez1_vdberg Author: Utilisateur Created Date: 1/13/2012 11:22:58 AM...
16
Foresight Exchange Workshop “How to integrate agriculture and environmental stakes in foresights?” Beijing , 16th October 2011 With the support of the following institutions: Presentation n°1 (M. van den Berg, PBL) Lessons learnt from recent foresight experiences
Transcript of Foresight Exchange Workshop · prez1_vdberg Author: Utilisateur Created Date: 1/13/2012 11:22:58 AM...
Foresight Exchange Workshop
“How to integrate agriculture and environmental
stakes in foresights?”
Beijing , 16th October 2011
With the support of the following institutions:
Presentation n°1 (M. van den Berg, PBL)Lessons learnt from recent foresight experiences
16 October, 2011
Lessons learnt from recent foresight experiences
Maurits van den Berg
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
2
PBL’s Core business:
� Strategic policy analysis in the field of environment, nature and spatial planning...
Core research characteristics and values
� Outlook studies, evaluations
� Integrated approach
� Solicited and unsolicited research
� Policy relevance
� Independent
� Scientifically sound
Source: PBL Mission Statement (www.pbl.nl/en/aboutpbl)
What we do
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
3
Diverse approaches, but typically:
� Strategic: time horizon until 2030, 2050, sometimes 2100
� Integrated: multiple sectors & dimensions, but mostly:
� focus on environmental pressures & impacts (e.g. climate, biodiversity, N,P, water)
� Scenarios with different social, economic, policy contexts
� Quantitative (emphasis on biophysical world)
� Global analysis (often with refinements for EU or Netherlands)
Current trend in new research projects:
� Seeking improved balance between social, economic and environmental impacts
� More attention for policy options and governance issues
PBL forward looking studies
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
4
Examples
� Bio-energy (direct and indirect effects)
� EU common agricultural policy reform (EURURALIS)
� IPCC Assessment Reports
� OECD environmental outlook 2008, 2012
� UNEP GEO-3, GEO-4
� Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
� International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science & Technology for Development (IAASTD)
� Biodiversity assessments (GBO-2, GBO-3, Rethinking..)
� Club of Rome (Growing within limits)
� Impacts of food consumption & production (Protein Puzzle)
� Resource Efficiency (EU flagship initiative)
� Rio+20 (Backcasting from the future)
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
5
Main lessons learntAgriculture - environment Nexus
1. To reach key sustainability goals, improved resource efficiency is crucial (e.g. sustainable intensification), but technological solutions alone will not be sufficient
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
6
Source: Rethinking global biodiversity strategies (PBL, 2010)www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2010/Rethinking_Global_Biodiversity_Strategies
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
7
A combination of ambitious, mainly technology based, globally implemented options of more efficient resource use helps to reduce biodiversity loss, but is not sufficient to totally stop it.Source: Rethinking global biodiversity strategies (PBL, 2010)www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2010/Rethinking_Global_Biodiversity_Strategies
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
8
Main lessons learntAgriculture - environment Nexus
1. To reach key sustainability goals, improved resource efficiency iscrucial (e.g. sustainable intensification), but technological solutions alone will not be sufficient
2. Effects of unilateral or sectoral initiatives tend to be partly (largely?) offset by leakage or rebounds, and/or manifest themselves somewhere else
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
9
Because of rebound effects and leakage, the (modeled) effects of EU level options to reduce the pressure on agricultural land are much less than suggested by ‘back-of –the-envelope’ calculations; and they occur mostly outside the EU. Source: The protein puzzle (PBL, 2011)www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2011/meat-dairy-and-fish-options-for-changes-in-production-and-consumption
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
10
Main lessons learntAgriculture - environment Nexus
1. To reach key sustainability goals, improved resource efficiency iscrucial (e.g. sustainable intensification), but technological solutions alone will not be sufficient
2. Effects of unilateral or sectoral initiatives tend to be partly (largely?) offset by leakage or rebounds, and/or manifest themselves somewhere else
3. Sustainably feeding more than 8 billion people in 2030 (and 7.7 billion in 2020) may be more challenging than 9 billion in 2050
11 16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
As a consequence of diminishing population growth, the expansion of agricultural land use tends to level off after 2020/2030. Source: EU Resource efficiency perspectives in a global context (PBL, 2011)www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2011/eu-resource-efficiency-perspectives-in-a-global-context
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
12
1. To reach key sustainability goals, improved resource efficiency iscrucial (e.g. sustainable intensification), but technological solutions alone will not be sufficient
2. Effects of unilateral or sectoral initiatives tend to be partly (largely?) offset by leakage or rebounds, and/or manifest themselves somewhere else
3. Sustainably feeding more than 8 billion people in 2030 (and 7.7 billion in 2020) may be more challenging than 9 billion in 2050
4. To reach target audience: early engagement of stakeholders, political “savviness”, framing & relevant narratives, and timing are as important as scientific soundness
Main lessons learntAgriculture - environment Nexus
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
13
1. To reach key sustainability goals, improved resource efficiency iscrucial (e.g. sustainable intensification), but technological solutions alone will not be sufficient
2. Effects of unilateral or sectoral initiatives tend to be partly (largely?) offset by leakage or rebounds, and/or manifest themselves somewhere else
3. Sustainably feeding more than 8 billion people in 2030 (and 7.7 billion in 2020) might be more challenging than 9 billion in 2050
4. To reach target audience: early engagement of stakeholders, political “savviness”, framing & relevant narratives, and timing are as important as scientific soundness
5. The world turns on (doom and gloom perspectives lead to paralysis rather than action)
Main lessons learntAgriculture - environment Nexus
14
� In addition to ‘what-if’, more focus on ‘how-to’ questions (practices & governance)
� Cutting across scales, connecting local and global analyses without losing sight of the big picture
� Improving descriptions of feed-back mechanisms and their impacts (e.g. effects of unsustainable land use, on soil degradation, on yields, on land use)
� Comparative analyses with different models and institutes
� Further improving the impacts of our studies (outreach, strategic partnerships, capitalize on strengths)
Opportunities for furtherresearch & development
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
15
Thank you
16 October 2011
M van den Berg – Lessons from recent foresight experiences
