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BRIEFING PAPERNumber CBP-8534, 20 December 2019

Foreign Direct Investment Statistics

By Matthew Ward

Contents: 1. What is Foreign Direct

Investment?2. Inward FDI in the UK3. UK investment abroad4. World FDI

2 Foreign Direct Investment

Contents Summary 3

1. What is Foreign Direct Investment? 4 Flows 4 Stocks 4

2. Inward FDI in the UK 6 2.1 Flows: 2018 6 2.2 Flows: recent international trends 7 2.3 Stocks: 2018 8 2.4 FDI stock on an immediate and ultimate basis 9 2.5 Recent trends in inward FDI in the UK 10 2.6 Inward FDI and Brexit 11

3. UK investment abroad 14 3.1 FDI outflows: 2018 14 3.2 Flows: recent trends 15 3.3 Stocks: 2018 16 3.4 Stocks: recent trends 17

4. World FDI 18 4.1 Flows 18 4.2 Stocks 19

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Foretra e wi th the Commo nwe al th: a summa r yForeign Direct Investment Statistics: a Summary

The value of net FDI flows into the UK was £49.3 billion in 2018, the second successive year inward investment in the UK has fallen. Inward FDI flows were worth a record £192.0

billion in 2016 - this was largely due to a small

number of high value mergers and acquisitions.

Inward FDI as a percentage of GDP was worth

2% in 2018 - the average over the last 10 years

has been 3%.

The value of the UK's net outward FDI flows was £6.3 billion in 2018, down from £99.5 billion in 2017. Net investment in Africa and Asia was partly

offset by net disinvestment in Europe and the

Americas.

This decrease is due in part to a dramatic fall in

mergers and acquisitions, which fell from £77.5

billion in 2017 to £22.7 billion in 2018.

Overall, world flows of inward FDI fell by 13% in 2018, falling from $1.5 trillion in 2017 to $1.3 trillion.The fall in inward FDI was most pronounced in

developed countries, falling from $0.8 trillion in

2017 to $0.6 trillion in 2017.

The USA recorded the highest level of inward

investment in 2018 at $252 billion; the UK

ranked 6th in the world, down from 4th in 2017.

020406080

100120140160180200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Net FDI flows into the UK, 2013 - 2017£ billions

020406080

100120140160180200

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Net FDI flows into the UK, 2014 - 2018£ billions

-100-80-60-40-20

020406080

100

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

UK net FDI flows abroad 2014 - 2018£ billions

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

World inward FDI flows 2000 - 2018$ trillions

4 Foreign Direct Investment

1. What is Foreign DirectInvestment?

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is defined as investment in an enterprise operating in a foreign economy, where the purpose is to have an ‘effective voice’ in the management of the enterprise.

In FDI statistics, an ‘effective voice’ is owning 10% or more of a company; any investment below this is counted as ‘portfolio’ investment and not included in FDI statistics.1

FDI can cover a range of forms of investment, some examples include:

• A UK company establishes a branch or subsidiary in a foreigncountry, injecting start-up capital. This is often known as a‘greenfield’ investment.

• A UK company buys or sells (fully or partially) the equity of anexisting foreign company. This is often known as M&A (mergersand acquisitions) activity.

• A UK company puts additional capital into an existing foreignsubsidiary or allows it to retain profits rather than return them tothe parent company.

FDI can be either inward or outward:

• Inward FDI measures investments made in a country fromanother country – for example investment from a foreign countryinto the UK.

• Outward FDI measures investments made by domesticcompanies in a foreign economy – for example investment fromthe UK into a foreign country.

FDI statistics measure two different concepts – flows and stocks.

Flows Flows measure annual levels of investment on a net basis.2 For example, in the UK, inward flows would measure foreign companies’ investments in the UK, while outward flows would measure investments made by British companies abroad.

Flows data can vary significantly from year to year and should be used with caution - a significant proportion of FDI flows can be accounted for by large multinational mergers and acquisitions and do not necessarily indicate significant ‘greenfield’ investments. High flows can also be dominated by a small number of high value transactions.

Stocks The stock measure records the total book value of all existing FDI, inward or outward at the end of a given period, rather than being a sum of investment over time. Consequently, stock values are be subject

1 See Background notes, Foreign direct investment involving UK companies: 2015, ONS, December 2016

2 Meaning disinvestments will be included

5 Commons Library Briefing, 20 December 2019

to changes in valuation in company accounts, as well as exchange rate fluctuations, and values can change from year to year even without new investments.

6 Foreign Direct Investment

2. Inward FDI in the UK

2.1 Flows: 2018 In 2018:

• The value of foreign direct investment into the UK (i.e. inwardflows) was worth £49.3 billion, down from £80.6 billion in 2017.3

• The USA was the single largest investor in the UK (accounting for80% of all inward investment, up from 21% in 2017). Overall, theAmericas (i.e. North and South America) combined accounted forjust over 90% of all inward investment in the UK.

• The UK Offshore Islands (i.e. the Isle of Man and Channel Islands)were the second largest investor in the UK, accounting for £12.3billion of the UK’s inward flows, up from £7.9 billion in 2017.

• Investment from the EU fell from £24.0 billion in 2017 to a netdisinvestment of -£12.0 billion. Although five of the top teninvestors into the UK were EU member states, there were netdisinvestments of -£16.2 billion from the Netherlands, -£2.0billion from Luxembourg and -£1.9 billion from Ireland.

2018 marks the second successive year inward FDI flows into the UK have fallen – inward FDI flows were worth £192.0 billion in 2016, falling to £80.6 billion in 2017 and £49.3 billion in 2018.

While the fall in value of inward FDI flows into the UK of just over £140 billion between 2016 and 2018 may seem very dramatic, it is important to remember that inward flows can be very volatile from year to year and that 2016’s total was unusually high.

This was attributed by the Office for National Statistics to “a handful of high-value mergers and acquisitions” in 2016, notably four foreign

3 All data taken from ONS, Foreign direct investment involving UK companies: 2018, December 2019

Net UK inward FDI flows, 2018

£ billions

USA 39.5UK Offshore Islands* 12.3Canada 4.6Spain 3.8Germany 3.1Australia 1.0Belgium 0.6Cyprus 0.4Denmark 0.3Singapore 0.3

EU -12.0Non-EU 61.3World 49.3

Source: ONS, FDI involving UK companies, 2018* This refers to the Isle of Man and Channel Islands

7 Commons Library Briefing, 20 December 2019

acquisitions of British companies each with an individual value in excess of £10 billion, including the £79 billion takeover of brewer SABMiller and the £24 billion takeover of chipmaker ARM.4

In 2017, there were no inward foreign mergers or acquisitions of British companies valued above £10 billion. The acquisition of Sky PLC by the Comcast Corporation for just over £30 billion led to an increase in the value of inward foreign mergers and acquisitions in 2018, though this was still well below the level of 2016.5

Trends in inward FDI into the UK as a percentage of GDP over the last decade are shown in the graph below. In 2016, the value of the UK’s inward FDI was equal to 10% of GDP; this fell to 4% in 2017 and 2% in 2018. The average over the last 10 years has been 3%.

2.2 Flows: recent international trends In 2018, the UK accounted for 5% of world inward FDI flows (down from 7% in 2017) and 23% of the EU’s total inward FDI flows (down from 30% in 2017).6

The chart below shows the UK’s world ranking in terms of inward FDI flows since 1990. Over this period, the UK’s position in the world has fluctuated between first (in 2005) and sixteenth (in 2014).

The United States has ranked first in all but two years over this period – 2003 (when China was first) and 2005 (when the UK was first).

4 ONS, UK foreign direct investment, trends and analysis 30 January 2018 5 ONS, Mergers and acquisitions involving UK companies, annual overview: 2018, 5

March 2019 6 Data taken from UNCTAD Stat database

UK inward FDI as a percentage of GDP, 2009-2018

Source: ONS

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

8 Foreign Direct Investment

2.3 Stocks: 2018 In 2018:

• The value of the inward FDI stock in the UK (i.e. the stock of FDIinvested in the UK) was £1.5 trillion, up from £1.4 trillion in 2017.

• EU countries accounted for 38% of the stock of FDI in the UK,down slightly from 42% in 2017. The EU’s share of the stock ofFDI in the UK fluctuated between 38% and 54% over the lastdecade; over the same period the USA’s share has fluctuatedbetween 24% and 30%.

• Europe as a whole (i.e. including European countries outside theEU) accounted for 53% of the stock of inward FDI in the UK.

• Looking at individual countries, the USA accounted for just over aquarter of the stock of inward FDI in the UK in 2018.

UK rank in world FDI inflows, 1990-20181 = most inward FDI that year; based on US$ data

Source: UNCTAD

1

4

7

10

13

16

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

£ billions % total

USA 417 27.4%UK Offshore Islands* 141 9.3%Netherlands 138 9.0%Luxembourg 111 7.3%Belgium 94 6.2%Japan 89 5.9%Germany 84 5.5%Switzerland 67 4.4%France 55 3.6%Spain 50 3.3%

EU 579 38.1%Non-EU 942 61.9%World 1,521 100.0%

Source: ONS* This refers to the Isle of Man and Channel Islands

International investment stock in the UK by country, 2018

9 Commons Library Briefing, 20 December 2019

2.4 FDI stock on an immediate and ultimate basis

All figures in this section are based on investments made on an immediate parent company basis, with the geographical origin of investment in the UK being based on the country in which the company is resident, rather than the residence of the ultimate parent company.

The ONS have recently begun to produce FDI statistics that reflect investment made on the basis of the ultimate controlling parent country, based on identification of the residence of the majority shareowner of a company (i.e. over 50% of the voting power). This approach is designed to reflect not where the financial flow necessarily comes from directly, but rather “identifies the country of the ultimate decision-maker for each UK business receiving FDI.”7

This distinction is important as it can highlight offshore investment – that is investment that effectively passes through one country en route to another. A recent IMF paper on the subject describes this as the difference between “phantom FDI”, which it describes as “investments into empty corporate shells with no link to the local real economy” and real FDI, which it describes as investment “between an investor in one economy and an active and substantial business in another economy.”8 The paper uses the example of Luxembourg, which records inward investment levels similar to the USA (despite the USA having a population around 550 times larger) though this is largely investment that passes through Luxembourg “without leaving many real traces in

7 ONS, UK foreign direct investment, trends and analysis: July 2019, 28 July 2019 8 J. Damgaard, T. Elkjaer, and N. Johannesen, What Is Real and What Is Not in the

Global FDI Network? IMF Working Paper, 11 December 2019, pgs. 1-2

Stock of international investment in the UK, 2018 (% of total)

Source: ONS

38.1%35.7%

14.5%

10.4%

1.1% 0.1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

EU Americas Europe, non-EU

Asia Australasia &Oceania

Africa

10 Foreign Direct Investment

the transit”; accordingly Luxembourg’s outward FDI flows roughly matches their inward FDI flows.9

The table below shows the stock of international investment in the UK on the basis of the ultimate controlling parent country of investments in 2017.

The main difference in these approaches is seen in investments from Europe and the Americas - investments from the EU fall from 43% of the stock of inward investment in the UK on an immediate basis to 28% on an ultimate basis, whereas investments from the Americas increase from 34% on an immediate basis to 50% on an ultimate basis. Investment from other continents and areas remain broadly similar.

2.5 Recent trends in inward FDI in the UK The chart below shows the UK’s world ranking in terms of the stock of inward FDI since 1990. Over this period, the UK’s position in the world has fluctuated between fifth and second, while the United States has been ranked first every year.

Since 2015, the UK has been ranked third behind the USA and Hong Kong. In 2018, the value of the stock of inward FDI in the UK was $1.9 trillion, behind Hong Kong at $2.0 trillion and the USA at $7.5 trillion.10

9 J. Damgaard, T. Elkjaer, and N. Johannesen, Ibid, pgs. 1-2 10 Data taken from UNCTAD Stat database

Stock of international investment in the UK, 2017 (% of total)

Source: ONS, UK foreign direct investment, trends and analysis, July 2019

43%

34%

13%10%

1%

28%

50%

9% 9%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

EU Americas Europe non-EU Asia Australasia &Oceania

Immediate basis

Ultimate basis

11 Commons Library Briefing, 20 December 2019

2.6 Inward FDI and Brexit The available evidence on the impact of the Brexit vote on inward investment in the UK is mixed.

Quarterly data produced by the ONS indicates that foreign inward investment in the UK continued to grow after the EU referendum result and in every quarter of 2017, as well as in five out of the seven quarters between Q1 2018 to Q3 2019 (the most recent available data), albeit at a much slower rate than in 2016. Again, it is important to remember that 2016’s total was exceptionally high and FDI flows can be very volatile.

Quarterly data from Q1 2016 are shown in the chart below.

The UK’s rank in the EU for inward FDI flows between 2009 and 2018 is shown in the graph below; the UK has been ranked first in the EU in six

UK rank in stock of world inward FDI, 1990-20181 = most inward FDI that year; based on US$ data

Source: UNCTAD

1

2

3

4

5

61990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

FDI flows into the UK, Q1 2016 - Q3 2019 (£ billions)

Source: ONS, Balance of Payments

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2016 2017 2018 2019

12 Foreign Direct Investment

of the last ten years, most recently between 2016 and 2017, before falling to second in 2018 (behind the Netherlands).

An Economist article suggests that the UK remains attractive to foreign investors, owing to “low corporation tax and a stable legal system” in spite of Brexit related uncertainty; a counter argument suggests post-referendum FDI has been “little more than asset-stripping”, with foreign investors taking advantage of the weakened pound to acquire British companies cheaply.11

EY (formerly Ernst and Young) publish an annual “attractiveness survey” of foreign investors’ investments in the UK and their perceptions of it as a destination for investment. The 2019 UK Attractiveness Survey Tipping Point reported that while the UK remained Europe’s number one recipient of FDI related projects the UK experienced “a reduction in FDI volumes and a decline in investor sentiment”12

Some notable statistics included in the 2019 report include:

• The UK attracted 13% less FDI projects in 2018 than 2017, withthe total number of projects falling from 1,205 to 1,054

• The UK’s share of European inward investment projects fell to17%, down from a high of 21% in 2015. This is the UK’s lowestshare of European inward investment projects in the two decadesEY have been publishing its attractiveness surveys

• The UK’s overall attractiveness has declined relative to similareconomies - in a survey of investors asked to their top threecountries for FDI in Europe, the UK was ranked third behindGermany and France

• 5% of investors said they increased investment in the UK in 2018(compared to 7% in 2017) and 5% reduced it (compared to 6%in 2017)

11 Economist, How is Brexit affecting FDI into Britain? 11 May 2019 12 EY Tipping Point: EY Attractiveness Survey UK 2019, June 2019

UK rank in EU on inward FDI flows, 2009 - 20181 = most inward FDI that year; based on US$ data

Source: UNCTAD

1

2

3

4

5

62009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

13 Commons Library Briefing, 20 December 2019

• 15% of investors said they paused one or more UK projects dueto Brexit in 2018 (compared to 8% in 2017)

• Combined, London and the South East accounted for just overhalf of all new FDI projects in 2018; Scotland accounted for justunder 10%

• Northern Ireland was the only part of the UK to record an increasein FDI projects in 2018, owing to increased levels of investmentfrom the Republic of Ireland and USA.

14 Foreign Direct Investment

3. UK investment abroad

3.1 FDI outflows: 2018 In 2018:

• The UK’s outward FDI flows (i.e. investments made by UKcompanies in companies abroad) were worth £6.3 billion, downfrom £99.5 billion in 2017. The UK recorded a net disinvestmentabroad for three successive years between 2014 and 2016.

• By individual country, the UK’s highest overall investment was inthe Netherlands – this amounted to £5.4 billion, followed byHong Kong at £3.9 billion.

• Overall, the value of UK recorded a net disinvestment in with theEU of -£4.7 billion.13

The table below shows UK investments abroad by area in 2018 – most outward investment in 2018 was toward Africa and Asia, while net disinvestment was recorded with the Americas, Europe (EU and non-EU) and Australasia and Oceania.

The decrease in outward FDI flows in 2018 is due in part to a dramatic fall in mergers and acquisitions – the value of outward M&A fell from £77.5 billion in 2017 to £22.7 billion in 2018. This was due to a lack of very high value deals (i.e. above £10 billion); by contrast in 2017, two high value acquisitions (the acquisitions of Reynolds American Inc. by British American Tobacco and Mead Johnson Inc. by Reckitt Benckiser) – combined accounted for over 75% of the UK’s total outward M&A activity.14

13 All data taken from ONS, Foreign direct investment involving UK companies: 2018, December 2019

14 ONS, UK Mergers and Acquisitions activity in context: 2017, 6 March 2018

UK outward investments by region, 2018 (£ billions)

Source: ONS

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Africa Asia Americas Europe,non-EU

Australasia& Oceania

EU Europe

15 Commons Library Briefing, 20 December 2019

3.2 Flows: recent trends In 2018, the UK accounted for 5% of world and 13% of EU outward FDI flows and was the ninth largest investor abroad in the world (fourth largest in Europe).

The UK’s level of outward investment in 2017 and 2018 followed a three-year period of net disinvestment (2014-16).

Between 1990 and 2017, the UK’s position in terms of world outward FDI flows fluctuated between first (in 2000) and seventeenth (in 2012); net disinvestments between 2014-16 meant the UK was ranked 217th.

The United States has ranked first in all but three years over this period – 1990 (when Japan was first), 2000 (when the UK was first), 2005(when the Netherlands was first) and 2018 (when Japan was first).

World FDI outflows, 2018 (% of world total)

Source: UNCTAD

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

UK net FDI flows abroad, 2009-18 (£ billions)

Source: ONS

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

16 Foreign Direct Investment

3.3 Stocks: 2018 In 2018:

• The value of the UK’s outward investment position abroad (i.e.the stock of UK FDI invested abroad) was £1.40 trillion, up from£1.37 trillion in 2017.

• UK investments in EU countries accounted for 43% of the totalstock of UK investments abroad, down slightly from 44% in 2016and down from a high of 52% in 2010.

• Europe as a whole (i.e. including European countries outside theEU) accounted for 52% of UK’s stock of investment abroad.

• Looking at individual countries, the USA accounted for just over afifth of UK’s stock of investment abroad in 2018.15

15 Data taken from ONS, Foreign direct investment involving UK companies: 2018, December 2019

Stock of UK investments abroad, 2018

£ billions % total

USA 295 20.9%Netherlands 160 11.4%Luxembourg 117 8.3%France 82 5.8%Spain 74 5.3%Hong Kong 72 5.1%UK Offshore Islands* 58 4.1%Ireland 53 3.8%Switzerland 49 3.5%Australia 36 2.5%

EU 601 42.7%Non-EU 807 57.3%World 1,409 100.0%

* This refers to the Isle of Man and Channel IslandsSource: ONS

Stock of UK investments abroad by region, 2018 (% of total)

Source: ONS

42.7%

29.8%

13.2%

8.9%

2.7% 2.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

EU Americas Asia Europe, non-EU

Africa Australasia &Oceania

17 Commons Library Briefing, 20 December 2019

3.4 Stocks: recent trends The chart below shows the UK’s world ranking in terms of the stock of FDI held abroad since 1990. Over this period, the UK’s position in the world has fluctuated between fifth and second, while the United States has ranked first every year.

The UK was the second largest holder of FDI stock abroad between 2000 and 2014, before falling to third in 2015 (behind the USA and the Netherlands) and to fourth in 2016 (behind the USA, Netherlands and Hong Kong) and fifth in 2017 and 2018 (behind the USA, Netherlands, Hong Kong and China).

UK rank in stock of outward FDI, 1990-20181 = largest FDI stock; based on US$ data

Source: UNCTAD

1

2

3

4

5

61990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

18 Foreign Direct Investment

4. World FDIThis section looks at recent trends in world FDI.

4.1 Flows In 2018, overall world flows of inward FDI fell 13% to $1.3 trillion from $1.5 trillion in 2017; this is the third consecutive year FDI levels have fallen, following a record high of $2.0 trillion in 2015. The fall in inward FDI was most pronounced in developed economies, falling from $0.8 trillion in 2017 to $0.6 trillion in 2016, their lowest level since 2004. Investment in developing economies remained virtually unchanged at $0.7 trillion.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s 2019 World Investment report attributes this in part to “large-scale repatriations of accumulated foreign earnings by United States multinational enterprises in the first two quarters of 2018” following American “tax reforms introduced… at the end of 2017.” The report goes on to say that while the winding down of the effect of these tax reforms is likely to see a rebound in FDI in 2019 projections for global FDI “show only a modest recovery of 10% to about $1.5 trillion, below the average over the past 10 years… The underlying FDI trend remains weak.”16

The graph below shows the trend in world inward FDI flows since 1990.

In 2018, the USA had the highest level of inward investment at $252 billion (down from $277 billion in 2017), followed by China at $139 billion (up slightly from $134 billion in 2017) and Hong Kong at $116 billion (up slightly from $110 billion in 2017); the UK ranked sixth in the world, down from fourth in 2017. Taken as a block, the EU accounted

16 UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2019

World inward FDI flows, 1990 - 2018 ($ trillions)

Source: UNCTAD

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

World

Developed economies

Developing economies

19 Commons Library Briefing, 20 December 2019

for $278 billion of world inward FDI in 2018 (21% of the world total), down from $341 billion (23% of the world total) in 2018.

The percentage share of the 10 largest recipients of inward FDI in 2018 is shown in the table below.

Looking at outward FDI, Japan accounted for just under 15% of all outward flows in 2018 followed by China at 13% and France on 10%.

The UK accounted for 5% of world outward flows in 2018.

4.2 Stocks The total value of inward FDI stocks in 2018 was $32.3 trillion, up slightly from 2017. The USA accounted for just under a quarter of this total (valued at $7.5 trillion); the UK accounted for 6% of the world total, worth $1.9 trillion.

World inward FDI flows, 2018 (% of world total)

Source: UNCTAD

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

World outward FDI flows, 2018 (% of world total)

Source: UNCTAD

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

20 Foreign Direct Investment

The USA was also the largest holder of stocks of outward FDI in 2018 – again this was around a quarter of the total, valued at $6.5 trillion. The UK was the fifth largest holder of outward FDI stock in 2018, accounting for 5% of the world total, worth $1.7 trillion.

World FDI inward stock, 2018 (% of world total)

Source: UNCTAD

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

World FDI outward stock, 2018 (% of world total)

Source: UNCTAD

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 8534 20 December 2019

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