FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways.
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Transcript of FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways.
![Page 1: FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032710/56649f065503460f94c1bd0c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways
![Page 2: FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032710/56649f065503460f94c1bd0c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Initial idea (FORECOM proposal)• Refine existing models for Swiss Alps by-including long-term forest cover change perspective-knowledge of lands use/climate contribution to past changes
• Apply models to Polish Carpathians-requires comparability of model foundations (data)
in terms of scenarios this implies:-making use of findings from TASK 3-6-emphasising comparative aspects
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FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Scenarios in existing Swiss land use models
3 Scenarios (old approach) BAU: business as usual, continuation of observed trends
Liberalization: no more support for ag production and conservation-oriented ag
Extensification: increased support for conservation-oriented ag
2 axis (new approach) Low vs. High intervention
Regional vs. Global
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FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Potential modes of intervention Forest policy: restrictions for deforestation, reforestation efforts Ag Policy: support for ag production/conservation-oriented schemesSpatial Planning
regional to global
Scope of policyScale of driving forces
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FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Apply CAP scenarios in SwitzerlandApply aspects of Swiss ag and forest policy scenarios to Poland
Comparative approach
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FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
How to make use of information on long-term forest cover dynamics and drivers of
past changes?• Forest cover-forest age (e.g., stronger protection of old forests, less strict
deforestation regulations or even support to clear recent in-growth)
• Drivers-Adjustment of land-use suitability maps and transition
probabilities based on findings in TASK 6
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FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Include new aspects in scenarios?• Energy-Lorenas suitability maps (energy production could prevent in-
growth)-changes in wood demand-new infrastucture being built• Tourism-higher urbanization pressure in touristic hotspots-touristic infrastructure (transportation,ski slopes) • Leakage effects
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FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Brainstorming Scenarios (PL/CH)
Relevant aspects/drivers to be considered in the context of forest cover changes
Other land use categories involved (urbanization/ag catgories)
Is two axes framwork suitable– Adjustments/complementary axes?
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FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Climate
• Guiding principle: keep it as simple as possible- 2 extreme (low/high) and 1 moderate scenario (use new
RCPs)- Run different well established RCMs
Run logical combinations (argumentation) of land-use and climate scenarios
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FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Climate scenarios
• Use new CORDEX RCMs based on the IPCC‘s 5th AR GCMs
- http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/- CORDEX: Coordinated Regional Climate
Downscaling Experiment- The whole globe is split into regions, resolution
is always 50 km- Two regions are interesting for us: 4. Europe/
12. Mediterranean- All simulations based on new RCP scenarios.
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FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Climate scenarios• Proposed procedure- Select few (3-5) RCMs (representing high/mid/low Tave/Prcp)- Select 3 (2.6, 6.0, 8.5) out of 4 RCP scenarios (the low end scenarios
are more similar than the high end, see figure below).- Scale the RCM output for these scenarios to the FORECOM study
areas
Global Mean T predicted in both the 4th and the 5th IPCC Assessment Report.
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FORECOM Project meeting May 2014