Forecasts for the UK economy...Inventories (contribution to GDP growth (ppt)) Domestic demand Total...

No. 396 July 2020

Forecasts for the UK economy:

a comparison of independent forecasts

compiled by the Macroeconomic Co-ordination & Strategy Teamwww.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-treasury/series/data-forecasts

www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-treasury/series/data-forecasts

www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-treasury/series/data-forecasts

© Crown copyright 2020

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ISBN 978-1-913635-42-8

PU797

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Contents

Page

Summary Page: Short-term forecasts 3

Table 1 - 2020: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) 4

Table 2 - 2020: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 5

Table 3 - 2020: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 6

Table 4 - 2021: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) 7

Table 5 - 2021: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 8

Table 6 - 2021: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 9

Average of independent forecasts for 2020; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment 10

Average of independent forecasts for 2020; Current account and PSNB (2020-21) 11

Average of independent forecasts for 2021; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment 12

Average of independent forecasts for 2021; Current account and PSNB (2021-22) 13

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2020; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months 14

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2020; LFS unemployment, current account and PSNB (2020-21) made in last 3 months 15

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2021; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months 16

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2021; LFS unemployment, current account and PSNB (2021-22) made in last 3 months 17

Annex 1: Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables 18

Annex 2: Data definitions 19

Annex 3: Notation used in tables 20

Annex 4: Organisation contact details 21

ISBN 978-1-913635-32-9

Please note that Forecasts for the UK economy is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review. No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.

Users should note that the Treasury crest (which incorporates the Royal Coat of Arms) may not be used or reproduced for any purpose without specific permission. Permission to use or reproduce the Treasury crest should be sought from HM Treasury.

Forecasts for the UK economy is compiled and co-ordinated by Tyler Appleby. Please direct enquiries on the content of this issue to Tyler Appleby ([email protected]).

The next edition will be published on the 19th August 2020. It will also be available on the Treasury’s website:https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/data-forecasts

Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 2

Forecasts for 2020

July June Lowest Highest

GDP growth (per cent) -9.2 -9.1 -12.0 -6.6 -9.1

Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)

- CPI 0.7 0.8 0.0 2.5 0.5

- RPI 1.5 1.3 0.4 6.7 1.4

LFS unemployment rate (Q4: %) 8.1 7.9 5.9 10.8 8.0

Current account (£bn) -85.5 -82.5 -244.0 -41.1 -74.9

PSNB (2020-21: £bn) 293.1 270.7 209.4 360.0 297.4

Forecasts for 2021

July June Lowest Highest

GDP growth (per cent) 6.3 6.2 1.5 10.3 6.6

Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)

- CPI 1.7 1.7 0.5 3.2 1.7

- RPI 2.8 2.6 1.1 6.7 2.7

LFS unemployment rate (Q4: %) 6.4 6.4 4.0 9.4 6.5

Current account (£bn) -80.7 -76.5 -143.0 -26.4 -76.5

PSNB (2021-22: £bn) 150.3 146.8 91.4 220.0 158.7

FORECASTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY

This edition of the comparison contains 21 new forecasts, all of which were received between July 1st and July 13th 2020.

The tables below summarise the average and range of independent forecasts for 2020 and 2021 and show the average of

this month’s new forecasts.

Average of new*

forecasts

Independent+

Averages July

Independent+

Averages JulyAverage of new*

forecasts

+ Independent averages, and the range of forecasts, are based on forecasts made in the last three months: May 6

institutions, June 3 institutions and July 21 institutions.

*Calculated from new forecasts received for the comparison this month.

Note: All the averages given are the mean and exclude non-standard entries except for house-price inflation (see

notation)


Forecasters and dates of forecasts

City forecasters Q2 Q3

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * -11.3 -21.0 12.0 -13.2 -1.7 -17.2 -0.6 - - - 1.2 -

Barclays Capital Jul * -7.5 -15.8 13.5 -8.4 0.3 -20.0 -1.1 - - - 2.4 -

Bloomberg Economics Jul * -9.7 -19.0 13.0 - - - - - - - - -

Capital Economics Jul * -9.3 -23.7 15.5 -13.0 4.8 -14.1 -0.3 -10.0 -15.0 -16.6 0.7 -

Citigroup Jul * -9.6 -19.6 14.1 -8.5 -3.6 -16.4 0.1 -11.1 -15.6 -18.7 1.1 -

Commerzbank Jul * -10.1 -18.3 10.7 -10.0 -2.0 -27.9 -0.1 -11.7 -19.6 -24.7 1.8 -3.9

Daiwa Capital Markets Jan 0.8 - - 1.1 1.7 0.4 -1.8 1.1 7.4 1.5 1.5 -0.3

Deutsche Bank May -11.5 -17.5 6.9 -11.7 5.1 -22.8 - - - - - -

Goldman Sachs May -10.4 -15.1 6.1 - - - - - - - - -

HSBC Jul * -7.8 -16.0 11.9 -9.1 0.6 -9.6 - -7.3 -13.4 -13.2 - -

ING Financial Markets Jan 1.2 - - 1.4 1.3 0.3 - 0.7 2.1 0.3 0.5 -

JP Morgan Jul * -8.3 -19.6 -7.9 SAAR -4.3 -4.7 - -1.1 -4.3 -19.1 -12.9 -1.8 -

Morgan Stanley Jan 1.4 - - 1.3 3.0 2.2 -0.3 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.0 0.1

Natwest Markets Jul * -7.8 -17.1 14.9 -6.6 -4.9 -11.5 - -8.0 -6.7 -7.4 0.2 -

Nomura May -10.0 -19.0 13.5 -11.4 1.4 -10.8 -0.3 - -16.6 -17.9 0.6 -

Pantheon May -9.0 -20.0 17.5 -10.0 -2.2 -12.5 -0.4 -9.2 -12.0 -12.5 0.3 -

Santander GBM Dec 1.0 - - 1.4 1.4 0.9 -0.7 0.0 2.9 -0.5 1.0 -0.7

Schroders Investment Management Jun -8.5 -17.1 13.2 -8.2 -1.4 -6.0 -0.6 -7.0 -16.4 -11.5 -1.4 -3.5

Societe Generale Jul * -9.2 -19.3 16.0 -12.4 2.2 -12.2 0.1 -9.6 -10.2 -11.1 0.4 -10.8

UBS Jul * -9.4 -16.7 10.0 -9.5 0.5 -10.8 -0.8 -8.7 -13.5 -10.8 -0.7 -

Non-City forecasters

British Chambers of Commerce Jan 1.1 - - 1.3 3.0 0.3 - - 1.1 1.4 - -

Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * -8.0 -8.7 -0.1 -3.7 -2.9 -15.5 -1.9 -7.5 -15.1 -14.7 0.4 -

Cambridge Econometrics Aug 1.3 - - 2.1 1.4 2.1 - - 1.8 3.1 - -

CBI Mar 1.2 0.4 - 1.2 2.0 0.7 -0.4 0.4 1.8 -1.0 0.8 -0.3

CEBR May -7.0 - - -8.0 3.4 -14.1 -0.5 -7.3 0.5 -0.7 0.4 -

Economic Perspectives Jul * -9.5 6.7 8.6 -14.5 13.6 -17.2 -0.1 -9.9 -12.2 -13.2 0.5 -

Experian Economics Jul * -12.0 -20.2 7.1 -11.4 3.9 -20.6 -0.6 -11.3 -17.0 -13.9 -0.8 -

EIU Jul * -9.0 -20.6 18.6 -9.9 6.0 -24.0 3.0 -9.1 -20.6 -22.3 - -3.1

Heteronomics Jul * -7.8 -20.0 21.1 -8.1 -1.4 -17.7 -0.6 -8.4 -6.6 -10.8 1.4 -1.3

IHS Markit Economics Oct 0.5 - - 0.7 1.5 -2.4 - 0.3 0.5 -1.5 - -

ITEM Club Jul * -8.9 -17.0 10.6 -9.6 2.5 -16.4 - -8.5 -24.2 -22.2 -0.4 -

Kern Consulting Jul * -9.5 - - -8.0 - -14.0 - - - - - -

Liverpool Macro Research Jul * -6.6 - - -6.3 0.6 -15.3 - - - - - -

NIESR May -7.2 -13.6 8.5 - - - - - - - - -

Oxford Economics Jul * -10.9 - - -14.9 1.4 -10.0 -0.2 -11.3 -22.6 -23.2 0.4 -5.0

PwC Dec 1.0 - - 1.4 2.7 -0.5 - - 3.3 0.0 - -

European Commission Jul * -9.7 -18.2 11.9 - - - - - - - - -

OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun -11.5 - - -15.2 10.1 -20.3 -0.7 -11.8 -15.8 -17.0 0.6 -

OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun -14.0 - - -18.5 11.2 -23.6 -0.7 -14.3 -16.9 -18.1 0.6 -

IMF Jun -10.2 - - - - - - - - - - -

Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months (excl. OECD scenarios)

Independent -9.2 -16.8 12.0 -9.6 0.9 -15.5 -0.3 -8.9 -14.5 -14.6 0.4 -4.6

New (marked *) -9.1 -16.7 12.3 -9.5 0.8 -16.1 -0.3 -9.1 -15.4 -15.7 0.5 -4.8

City -9.3 -18.3 12.6 -9.7 -0.4 -14.7 -0.5 -8.7 -14.4 -14.3 0.4 -6.1

Highest -6.6 6.7 21.1 -3.7 13.6 -6.0 3.0 -4.3 0.5 -0.7 2.4 -1.3

Lowest -12.0 -23.7 -0.1 -14.9 -4.9 -27.9 -1.9 -11.7 -24.2 -24.7 -1.8 -10.8

Median -9.3 -18.2 12.0 -9.5 0.6 -15.3 -0.4 -8.9 -15.1 -13.2 0.4 -3.7

OBR - central economic scenario Jul -12.4 -21.1 8.8 -13.9 -1.6 -23.4 0.8 -12.4 - - 0.1 -

Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months

To

tal

imp

ort

s

Net

trad

e (

con

trib

uti

on

to

GD

P g

row

th (

pp

t))

Ou

tpu

t G

ap

(as

% o

f

po

ten

tial

GD

P)

Table 1 - 2020: Growth in GDP and its components (% annual growth)

Pri

vate

co

nsu

mp

tio

n

Go

vern

men

t co

nsu

mp

tio

n

Fixe

d i

nve

stm

en

t

Inve

nto

ries

(co

ntr

ibu

tio

n

to G

DP g

row

th (

pp

t))

Do

mest

ic d

em

an

d

To

tal

exp

ort

s

GD

P

Qu

art

erl

y G

DP



City forecasters

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * 0.6 0.6 - - 0.0 - - -

Barclays Capital Jul * 0.9 1.1 - - 0.1 41.0 - -

Bloomberg Economics Jul * 0.4 - - - 0.1 - - -

Capital Economics Jul * 0.0 0.4 -1.4 80.8 0.1 45.0 -9.3 -4.0

Citigroup Jul * 0.2 0.9 -5.1 - 0.0 - - -

Commerzbank Jul * 0.4 1.0 -0.2 77.0 0.1 39.4 -9.3 -4.9 y

Daiwa Capital Markets Jan 1.4 - 3.2 - 0.5 - - 2.2

Deutsche Bank May 0.8 1.6 - - 0.1 - - -

Goldman Sachs May 0.5 - - - 0.1 - - -

HSBC Jul * 0.9 1.5 -0.5 - 0.1 - - -

ING Financial Markets Jan 1.6 - - - - - - -

JP Morgan Jul * 0.3 - - - - - - -

Morgan Stanley Jan 2.1 2.8 3.9 - 1.0 - - 1.0

Natwest Markets Jul * 0.1 0.9 0.2 - 0.1 40.0 -6.1 -

Nomura May 1.0 1.7 1.1 76.7 0.1 - - -

Pantheon May 0.2 0.7 1.5 - 0.1 - - -

Santander GBM Dec 1.6 2.4 3.4 - 0.8 64.0 - -

Schroders Investment Management Jun 0.9 1.6 4.2 - 0.1 - -7.6 6.2 x

Societe Generale Jul * 0.4 1.1 -1.3 - 0.1 - -8.3 -

UBS Jul * 0.8 1.4 0.0 - 0.1 - -8.0 -


British Chambers of Commerce Jan 1.6 - 2.8 - 0.8 - - -

Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * 0.1 1.3 2.0 78.6 0.1 42.4 -5.0 4,6 z

Cambridge Econometrics Aug - - - - - - - -

CBI Mar 2.3 3.0 3.2 77.5 1.0 56.5 - 1.6

CEBR May 2.5 3.2 0.0 79.5 - - - -

Economic Perspectives Jul * 0.8 6.7 2.0 77.4 0.1 40.0 -8.8 -3.0 k

Experian Economics Jul * 0.5 1.0 -2.0 79.0 0.1 38.7 - -2.0 z

EIU Jul * 0.7 1.2 -16.2 - 0.1 40.0 -8.0 -6.0 z

Heteronomics Jul * 0.2 1.0 -0.2 80.9 0.1 39.2 - -2.5 z

IHS Markit Economics Oct 2.2 - - - 0.8 63.8 2.9 -

ITEM Club Jul * 0.5 1.2 -0.4 - 0.1 41.9 - 2.0 z

Kern Consulting Jul * 0.9 - 1.9 - 0.1 43.0 - -

Liverpool Macro Research Jul * 1.8 - 3.0 78.6 0.3 - - -

NIESR May 1.7 - - - - - - -

Oxford Economics Jul * 0.3 0.5 -0.1 76.8 0.1 41.2 -8.9 -3.5 k

PwC Dec - - - - - - - 2.1

European Commission Jul * 0.7 - - - - - - -

OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun 0.2 - - - - - - -

OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun 0.1 - - - - - - -

IMF Apr 1.2 - - - - - - -


Independent 0.7 1.5 -0.6 78.5 0.10 41.0 -7.9 -2.0

New (marked *) 0.5 1.4 -1.1 78.6 0.10 41.0 -8.0 -3.0

City 0.5 1.1 -0.2 78.2 0.09 41.3 -8.1 -0.9


Highest 2.5 6.7 4.2 80.9 0.25 45.0 -5.0 6.2

Lowest 0.0 0.4 -16.2 76.7 0.00 38.7 -9.3 -6.0

Median 0.6 1.1 -0.1 78.6 0.10 40.5 -8.2 -3.0

OBR - central economic scenario Jul 0.3 1.3 h 0.2 - 0.03 - -10.1 -0.7 h

CPI

(Q4

on

Q4

yea

r

ag

o,

%)

RPI

(Q4

on

Q4

yea

r

ag

o,

%)

Ave

rag

e ea

rnin

gs

Ste

rlin

g i

nd

ex (

Jan

20

05

=1

00

)

Off

icia

l B

an

k ra

te

(lev

el i

n Q

4,

%)

Oil p

rice

(B

ren

t, $

/bb

l)

Table 2 - 2020: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)

No

min

al

GD

P

Ho

use

pri

ce i

nfl

ati

on

(Q4

on

Q4

yea

r ag

o,

%)



City forecasters

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * - - - - - - - - - 350.0

Barclays Capital Jul * - -1.6 6.9 - - - - - - 262.8

Bloomberg Economics Jul * - - 8.5 - - - - - - -

Capital Economics Jul * -6.0 -1.5 5.9 1.5 - -20.0 -41.1 845.0 -11.1 360.0

Citigroup Jul * - -3.8 9.3 - -12.4 - -103.0 734.0 - 279.7

Commerzbank Jul * -1.0 -1.7 8.1 2.8 -12.7 -4.6 -60.8 - 0.5 310.0

Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - 4.0 - - - - 445.0 0.7 -

Deutsche Bank May - - 10.1 - - - - - - -

Goldman Sachs May - - 6.1 - - - - - - -

HSBC Jul * - - 7.2 - 0.2 - - - - -

ING Financial Markets Jan - - - - - - - - - -

JP Morgan Jul * - - 8.0 - - - - - - -

Morgan Stanley Jan - 0.7 3.7 - - - - - - -

Natwest Markets Jul * -2.2 -0.8 6.7 - -8.4 - -62.0 785.0 - 325.0

Nomura May - - 8.0 - - - - 745.0 - -

Pantheon May - -4.0 7.2 - - - - 745.0 - 300.0

Santander GBM Dec - -0.1 4.4 - -0.4 - -78.0 445.0 - 59.5

Schroders Investment Management Jun 2.0 -4.9 9.5 3.2 - - -244.0 745.0 - 301.6

Societe Generale Jul * -5.5 -2.3 8.6 - - - -93.8 745.0 -1.3 313.5

UBS Jul * - - 6.5 - -4.0 - -82.4 745.0 - 305.0


British Chambers of Commerce Jan - - 4.0 - 0.3 - -95.7 - 1.0 53.0

Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * -4.9 -4.7 10.8 3.8 -8.4 -12.3 -70.3 745.0 -4.3 243.5

Cambridge Econometrics Aug - - - - - - - - - -

CBI Mar 0.6 0.4 4.1 - - - -73.5 - - 53.4

CEBR May -3.4 0.7 7.7 2.7 -9.0 - - - - -

Economic Perspectives Jul * -5.8 6.7 10.2 3.7 -10.0 -20.0 -55.0 645.0 1.2 265.0

Experian Economics Jul * -4.7 -3.0 8.5 3.3 - - -90.4 - - 290.0

EIU Jul * - -7.5 - - -9.8 -22.6 -82.1 - -4.6 -

Heteronomics Jul * - -1.2 6.8 - - - -65.4 800.0 -6.6 296.0

IHS Markit Economics Oct - 0.2 4.3 - 0.2 - - - - -

ITEM Club Jul * -2.8 -1.1 8.2 - -10.8 - -90.1 745.0 - 335.0

Kern Consulting Jul * - - 9.0 - -8.5 - -88.0 - - 240.0

Liverpool Macro Research Jul * - - - 2.4 - - -64.3 - - 239.1

NIESR May - - 10.5 - - - - - - 209.4

Oxford Economics Jul * -4.2 -1.7 6.5 3.0 -13.6 -8.8 -75.5 745.0 2.2 343.0

PwC Dec - - - - - - - - - -

European Commission Jul * - - - - - - - - - -

OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun - - 9.1 - - - - - - -

OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun - - 10.4 - - - - - - -

IMF Apr - - 4.8 - - - - - - -


Independent -3.5 -2.0 8.1 2.9 -9.0 -14.7 -85.5 751.5 -3.0 293.1

New (marked *) -4.1 -1.9 8.0 2.9 -9.0 -14.7 -74.9 753.4 -3.0 297.4

City -2.5 -2.6 7.8 2.5 -7.5 -14.7 -98.2 761.1 -4.0 310.8


Highest 2.0 6.7 10.8 3.8 0.2 -4.6 -41.1 845.0 2.2 360.0

Lowest -6.0 -7.5 5.9 1.5 -13.6 -22.6 -244.0 645.0 -11.1 209.4

Median -4.2 -1.7 8.1 3.0 -9.4 -16.2 -78.8 745.0 -2.8 300.0

OBR - central economic scenario Jul - - 11.9 - - - - 5.0 322.0

PSN

B

(£b

n 2

02

0-2

1)

LFS U

nem

plo

ymen

t ra

te

(Q4

)

Table 3 - 2020: Growth in other selected variables (% change)

Rea

l h

ou

seh

old

dis

po

sab

le i

nco

me

Em

plo

ymen

t g

row

th

Cla

iman

t u

nem

plo

ymen

t

(Q4

,millio

ns)

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g o

utp

ut

Wo

rld

tra

de

in g

oo

ds

an

d

serv

ices

Siz

e o

f A

PF

pu

rch

ase

s

(Q4

, £

bn

)

Cu

rren

t acc

ou

nt

(£b

n)

Pro

du

ctiv

ity

(Ou

tpu

t p

er

ho

ur)



City forecasters

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * 6.8 7.6 4.3 -1.0 0.4 - - - 0.8 -

Barclays Capital Jul * 5.8 5.3 3.1 6.7 0.2 - - - 0.6 -

Bloomberg Economics Jul * 9.0 - - - - - - - - -

Capital Economics Jul * 7.7 10.0 -1.2 6.8 0.0 7.1 9.0 7.5 0.6 -

Citigroup Jul * 6.2 7.3 7.7 8.7 -0.1 7.8 6.2 9.1 -0.8 -

Commerzbank Jul * 7.0 5.5 2.9 8.0 0.6 6.0 10.8 6.8 1.1 -1.5

Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - - - - - - - - -

Deutsche Bank May 3.0 2.0 3.7 2.2 - - - - - -

Goldman Sachs May 7.0 - - - - - - - - -

HSBC Jul * 6.2 7.6 5.0 0.5 - 6.2 4.2 4.5 - -


JP Morgan Jul * 6.6 6.0 3.6 - 2.3 6.0 1.0 4.7 -1.1 -

Morgan Stanley Jan - - - - - - - - - -

Natwest Markets Jul * 6.8 5.4 7.1 4.2 - 7.0 1.5 2.2 -0.2 -

Nomura May 6.1 6.6 4.2 4.7 0.4 - 6.2 6.2 0.0 -

Pantheon May 8.0 8.5 5.0 6.0 0.3 7.5 3.0 4.0 -0.3 -

Santander GBM Dec - - - - - - - - - -

Schroders Investment Management Jun 6.1 5.9 4.3 12.3 1.0 7.6 1.3 6.9 -1.7 -2.5

Societe Generale Jul * 7.6 7.9 6.0 9.3 0.1 7.8 3.0 3.8 -0.3 -4.7

UBS Jul * 5.5 6.1 4.5 2.4 0.0 5.3 4.0 3.2 0.2 -


British Chambers of Commerce Jan - - - - - - - - - -

Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * 1.5 2.1 2.6 -2.4 0.1 3.7 -2.7 4.0 -2.1 -


CBI Mar 1.8 1.4 2.5 2.1 -0.1 1.6 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0

CEBR May 2.9 3.8 0.7 -0.7 -0.8 1.0 8.8 1.6 1.4 -

Economic Perspectives Jul * 4.9 6.7 4.1 -2.7 -0.4 5.1 2.3 2.6 -0.1 -

Experian Economics Jul * 9.0 9.6 4.9 14.6 0.1 9.0 13.0 13.1 0.6 -

EIU Jul * 6.0 8.0 -4.5 22.0 4.0 7.0 9.7 13.7 - -2.7

Heteronomics Jul * 6.8 7.4 0.6 3.7 1.2 5.5 2.9 2.6 0.1 -0.7

IHS Markit Economics Oct - - - - - - - - - -

ITEM Club Jul * 6.0 6.0 3.5 12.9 - 6.5 2.9 4.9 -0.5 -

Kern Consulting Jul * 6.0 6.5 - 10.0 - - - - - -

Liverpool Macro Research Jul * 6.2 6.1 0.6 8.3 - - - - - -

NIESR May 6.8 - - - - - - - - -

Oxford Economics Jul * 10.3 12.8 7.3 12.0 0.3 11.9 16.9 22.6 -1.7 -3.4

PwC Dec - - - - - - - - - -

European Commission Jul * 6.0 - - - - - - - - -

OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun 9.0 12.2 1.3 7.2 0.1 8.9 -1.1 -1.0 0.0

OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun 5.0 5.2 4.0 4.8 0.1 4.9 -2.9 -2.8 0.0 -

IMF Jun 6.3 - - - - - - - - -


Independent 6.3 6.7 3.5 6.5 0.5 6.6 5.5 6.5 -0.2 -2.2

New (marked *) 6.6 7.0 3.5 6.9 0.6 6.8 5.6 7.0 -0.2 -2.6

City 6.6 6.6 4.3 5.4 0.5 6.8 4.6 5.4 -0.1 -2.9


Highest 10.3 12.8 7.7 22.0 4.0 11.9 16.9 22.6 1.4 0.0

Lowest 1.5 2.0 -4.5 -2.7 -0.8 1.0 -2.7 1.6 -2.1 -4.7

Median 6.2 6.6 4.1 6.7 0.2 6.8 4.0 4.7 -0.1 -2.5

OBR - central economic scenario Jul 8.7 7.7 8.4 16.0 -0.1 8.8 - - -0.2 -

Ou

tpu

t G

ap

(as

% o

f

po

ten

tial

GD

P)

Table 4 - 2021: Growth in GDP and its components (% annual growth)

GD

P

Pri

vate

co

nsu

mp

tio

n

Go

vern

men

t

con

sum

pti

on

Fixe

d i

nve

stm

ent

Inve

nto

ries

(co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o G

DP

gro

wth

(p

pt)

)

Do

mes

tic

dem

an

d

Tota

l ex

po

rts

Tota

l im

po

rts

Net

tra

de

(co

ntr

ibu

tio

n

to G

DP g

row

th (

pp

t))



City forecasters

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * 1.4 2.1 - - 0.0 - - -

Barclays Capital Jul * 1.6 2.4 - - 0.1 53.0 - -

Bloomberg Economics Jul * 1.5 - - - 0.1 - - -

Capital Economics Jul * 1.6 2.4 0.0 80.4 0.1 55.0 8.8 4.0

Citigroup Jul * 1.7 2.6 7.0 - -0.1 - - -

Commerzbank Jul * 1.7 2.2 1.7 80.6 0.1 44.3 9.2 -0.8 y

Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - - - - - - -

Deutsche Bank May 1.6 2.7 - - 0.1 - - -

Goldman Sachs May 1.2 - - - 0.1 - - -

HSBC Jul * 1.7 2.5 3.8 - 0.1 - - -

ING Financial Markets Jan - - - - - - - -

JP Morgan Jul * 2.0 - - - - - - -

Morgan Stanley Jan - - - - - - - -

Natwest Markets Jul * 1.3 2.1 1.1 - 0.1 42.0 8.5 -

Nomura May 2.0 3.0 2.1 81.9 0.1 - - -

Pantheon May 2.0 2.9 2.2 - 0.1 - - -

Santander GBM Dec - - - - - - - -

Schroders Investment Management Jun 2.3 3.5 2.8 - 0.1 - 8.0 7.4 x

Societe Generale Jul * 1.0 2.0 -1.4 - 0.1 - 8.3 -

UBS Jul * 1.6 2.4 0.3 - 0.1 - 6.8 -


British Chambers of Commerce Jan - - - - - - - -

Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * 2.2 3.8 2.4 78.6 0.5 44.9 4.3 13.8 z

Cambridge Econometrics Aug - - - - - - - -

CBI Mar 2.1 4.0 2.9 78.9 1.3 - - 2.5

CEBR May 2.4 3.4 2.5 80.4 - - - -

Economic Perspectives Jul * 3.2 6.7 4.0 80.0 0.1 45.0 7.2 0.0 k

Experian Economics Jul * 1.3 2.5 3.0 80.0 0.1 44.4 - 4.9 z

EIU Jul * 0.6 1.1 13.7 - 0.1 44.0 5.7 3.0 z

Heteronomics Jul * 2.1 3.0 1.6 81.7 0.1 49.6 - -0.5 z

IHS Markit Economics Oct - - - - - - - -

ITEM Club Jul * 2.0 2.9 2.4 - 0.3 49.9 - 3.0 z

Kern Consulting Jul * 1.5 - 2.3 - 0.1 50.0 - -

Liverpool Macro Research Jul * 2.1 - 3.2 77.7 2.5 - - -

NIESR May 0.5 - - - - - - -

Oxford Economics Jul * 1.7 2.4 2.2 77.8 0.1 49.9 11.7 -3.1 k

PwC Dec - - - - - - - -

European Commission Jul * 1.7 - - - - - - -

OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun 1.1 - - - - - - -

OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun 0.4 - - - - - - -

IMF Apr 1.5 - - - - - - -


Independent 1.7 2.8 2.8 79.9 0.2 47.7 7.9 3.2

New (marked *) 1.7 2.7 3.0 79.6 0.2 47.7 7.8 2.7

City 1.6 2.5 2.0 81.0 0.1 48.6 8.3 3.5


Highest 3.2 6.7 13.7 81.9 2.5 55.0 11.7 13.8

Lowest 0.5 1.1 -1.4 77.7 -0.1 42.0 4.3 -3.1

Median 1.7 2.5 2.4 80.2 0.1 47.3 8.2 3.0

OBR - central economic scenario Jul 1.7 1.1 h 3.7 - 0.0 - 8.9 -3.8 h

CPI

(Q4

on

Q4

yea

r

ag

o,

%)

RPI

(Q4

on

Q4

yea

r

ag

o,

%)

Ave

rag

e ea

rnin

gs

Ste

rlin

g i

nd

ex (

Jan

20

05

=1

00

)

Off

icia

l B

an

k ra

te

(lev

el i

n Q

4,

%)

Oil p

rice

(B

ren

t, $

/bb

l)

Table 5 - 2021: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)

No

min

al

GD

P

Ho

use

pri

ce i

nfl

ati

on

(Q4

on

Q4

yea

r ag

o,

%)



City forecasters

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * - - - - - - - - - 150.0

Barclays Capital Jul * - 1.3 5.4 - - - - - - 150.1

Bloomberg Economics Jul * - - 6.4 - - - - - - -

Capital Economics Jul * -0.2 -0.4 6.2 1.6 - 17.0 -55.4 995.0 10.6 191.0

Citigroup Jul * - -0.1 7.8 - 12.0 - -116.3 854.0 - 176.0

Commerzbank Jul * 2.8 -5.2 7.9 2.4 10.7 4.1 -50.5 - 1.7 163.0

Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - - - - - - - - -

Deutsche Bank May - - 9.1 - - - - - - -

Goldman Sachs May - - 4.0 - - - - - - -

HSBC Jul * - - - - 0.2 - - - - -


JP Morgan Jul * - - 6.0 - - - - - - -

Morgan Stanley Jan - - - - - - - - - -

Natwest Markets Jul * 0.6 -1.6 7.2 - 5.4 - -57.0 845.0 - 120.0

Nomura May - - 6.5 - - - - 745.0 - -

Pantheon May - 3.5 6.0 - - - - 745.0 - 100.0

Santander GBM Dec - - - - - - - - - -

Schroders Investment Management Jun 5.4 1.8 6.5 2.1 - - -143.0 745.0 - 120.8

Societe Generale Jul * -2.0 1.9 5.0 - - - -101.0 745.0 0.8 156.5

UBS Jul * - - 5.0 - 6.2 - -84.0 745.0 - 133.0


British Chambers of Commerce Jan - - - - - - - - - -

Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * 4.0 -3.4 9.4 3.3 3.5 2.0 -96.2 745.0 4.6 211.6


CBI Mar 1.4 0.8 4.1 - - - -64.7 - - 55.7

CEBR May 1.4 0.3 6.7 - 4.4 - - - - -

Economic Perspectives Jul * 3.5 6.7 8.0 2.8 5.0 10.0 -45.0 745.0 1.8 220.0

Experian Economics Jul * 4.0 0.0 7.2 2.4 - - -103.1 - - 150.0

EIU Jul * - 3.0 - - 8.3 11.9 -93.1 - 4.8 -

Heteronomics Jul * - 1.3 5.1 - - - -26.4 800.0 5.4 177.6

IHS Markit Economics Oct - - - - - - - - - -

ITEM Club Jul * 1.3 -1.2 5.8 - 7.7 - -95.7 745.0 - 140.0

Kern Consulting Jul * - - 6.0 - 4.0 - -85.0 - - 150.0

Liverpool Macro Research Jul * - - - 1.4 - - -54.1 - - -

NIESR May - - 5.8 - - - - - - 104.7

Oxford Economics Jul * 3.2 0.3 5.0 1.9 7.8 8.7 -85.1 745.0 -2.5 91.4

PwC Dec - - - - - - - - - -

European Commission Jul * - - - - - - - - - -

OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun - - 7.8 - - - - - - -

OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun - - 10.0 - - - - - - -

IMF Apr - - 4.4 - - - - - - -


Independent 2.2 0.5 6.4 2.2 6.3 9.0 -80.7 784.5 3.4 150.3

New (marked *) 1.9 0.2 6.5 2.3 6.4 9.0 -76.5 796.4 3.4 158.7

City 1.3 0.1 6.4 2.0 6.9 10.6 -86.7 802.4 4.4 147.5


Highest 5.4 6.7 9.4 3.3 12.0 17.0 -26.4 995.0 10.6 220.0

Lowest -2.0 -5.2 4.0 1.4 0.2 2.0 -143.0 745.0 -2.5 91.4

Median 2.8 0.3 6.2 2.2 5.8 9.4 -85.1 745.0 3.2 150.0

OBR - central economic scenario Jul - - 8.8 - - - - -2.1 153.7

PSN

B

(£b

n 2

02

1-2

2)

Cu

rren

t acc

ou

nt

(£b

n)

Pro

du

ctiv

ity

(ou

tpu

t p

er

ho

ur)

Table 6 - 2021: Growth in other selected variables (% change)

Rea

l h

ou

seh

old

dis

po

sab

le i

nco

me

Em

plo

ymen

t g

row

th

Cla

iman

t

un

emp

loym

ent

(Q4

,

millio

ns)

LFS U

nem

plo

ymen

t ra

te

(Q4

)

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g o

utp

ut

Wo

rld

tra

de

in g

oo

ds

an

d s

ervi

ces

Siz

e o

f A

PF

pu

rch

ase

s

(Q4

, £

bn

)


1

2

3

4

5 1.70 h

6 6.7

7

Average of independent forecasts for 2020; GDP growth, CPI and

RPI inflation and unemployment

-9.5

-8.0

-6.5

-5.0

-3.5

-2.0

-0.5

1.0

-9.5

-8.0

-6.5

-5.0

-3.5

-2.0

-0.5

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

GDP growth (per cent)

CPI (Q4, per cent)

RPI (Q4, per cent)

LFS unemployment rate (Q4)


1

2

3

4

5

6 6.7

7

Average of independent forecasts for 2020; Current

account and PSNB (2020-21)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PSNB (2020-21, £billion)

-90

-80

-70

-60

-90

-80

-70

-60

Current account (£billion)


6.7

Independent

Average of independent forecasts for 2021; GDP growth, CPI and

RPI inflation and unemployment

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

LFS unemployment rate (Q4)

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

CPI (Q4, per cent)

RPI (Q4, per cent)

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5



6.7

Average of independent forecasts for 2021; Current account and

PSNB (2021-22)

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50

-90

-80

-70

-60

-50


0

40

80

120

160

0

40

80

120

160



1

2

3

4

5 1.70 h

6 6.7

7

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2020; GDP

growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 monthsEE D

B BoA OEF

GS CBZ

N BLM

EC CG EP

KC UBS

Cap

E

SG P EIU ITEM

S JPM BEF

HSB

C

NW

Het BC N

IESR

CEBR

Liv

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

Independent consensus


Cap

E

NW

BEF CG

P Het JP

M

OEF

CBZ

BLM

SG

GS

EE

ITEM

BoA EIU

EC D

B

EP UBS

BC

HSB

C

S KC N

NIE

SR

Liv

CEBR

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


CPI (Q4, per cent)

Cap

E

OEF

BoA

P

CG

NW CBZ

EE Het BC

SG

EIU

ITEM

BEF

EP U

BS

HSB

C

DB

S

N

CEBR

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Independent Consensus

RPI (Q4, per cent)


1

2

3

4

5 1.70 h

6 6.7

7

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2020; LFS

unemployment, current account and PSNB (2020-21) made in last 3

monthsC

apE

GS U

BS

OEF

NW Het BC H

SBC

P

CEBR

JPM

N CBZ

ITEM

BLM

EE SG EP K

C CG S

DB N

IESR

BEF

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0


LFS Unemployment (Q4, per cent)

S

CG SG E

E ITEM

KC UB

S

EIU O

EF

BEF

Het

Liv

NW

CBZ

CEBR

EP

Cap

E

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50



NIE

SR Liv

KC BEF B

C EP C

G EE Het P S UB

S

CBZ

SG N

W ITEM

OEF

BoA

Cap

E

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400




1

2

3

4

5 1.70 h

6 6.7

7

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2021; GDP growth,

CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months

BEF

CEBR

DB

EP

UB

S

BC EIU

ITEM

KC

EC N S CG

HSB

C

Liv JP

M

Het

BoA

NW

NIE

SR

GS

CBZ SG Cap

E

P

BLM

EE

OEF

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0


GDP growth (per cent) N

IESR

EIU

SG

GS EE NW Bo

A

BLM

KC B

C

Cap

E

DB UBS

CG

HSB

C

EC CBZ

OEF JP

M

N P ITEM

Het Liv BEF S

CEBR

EP

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


CPI (Q4, per cent)

EIU

SG

BoA

NW C

BZ UBS

OEF

BC

Cap

E

HSB

C

EE CG D

B

P ITEM

Het

N

CEBR

S

EP B

EF

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


RPI (Q4, per cent)


1

2

3

4

5 1.70 h

6 6.7

7

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2021; LFS

unemployment, current account and PSNB (2021-22) made in last 3

monthsG

S

OEF

SG UB

S

Het B

C

ITEM

NIE

SR

JPM

P KC C

apE

BLM N S

CEBR N

W

EE

CG CBZ

EP

DB B

EF

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0


LFS unemployment rate (Q4, per cent)

S

CG

EE SG

BEF

ITEM

EIU O

EF

KC UB

S

NW Cap

E

Liv CBZ EP

Het

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20



OEF

P NIE

SR NW

S

UB

S

ITEM BoA

EE

KC

BC SG C

BZ CG Het C

apE BEF EP

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

50

100

150

200

250




BoA Bank of America - Merrill Lynch

BC Barclays Capital

BCC British Chambers of Commerce

BEF Beacon Economic Forecasting

BLM Bloomberg Economics

CapE Capital Economics

CG Citigroup

CBI Confederation of British Industry

CEBR Centre for Economics and Business Research

CBZ Commerzbank

CS Credit Suisse

DCM Daiwa Capital Markets

DB Deutsche Bank

EE Experian Economics

EC European Commission

EIU Economist Intelligence Unit

EP Economic Perspectives

FC Fathom Consulting

IHS IHS Markit Economics

GS Goldman Sachs

Het Heteronomics

HSBC HSBC Global Research

ING ING Financial Markets

IMF International Monetary Fund

ITEM EY ITEM Club

JPM JP Morgan Chase

KC Kern Consulting

Liv Liverpool Macro Research

MS Morgan Stanley

N Nomura

NIESR National Institute of Economic and Social Research

OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

OEF Oxford Economic Forecasting

P Pantheon

NW NatWest Markets

Sa Santander GBM

S Schroders Investment Management

SC Scotiabank

SG Societe Generale

Annex 1: Forecasting institutions


Annex 2: Data definitions

expressed as a percentage of trend (or potential)

(Total Pay)

Code BK67

House price inflation Q4 on Q4 annual percentage change in house prices

LFS unemployment rate (Q4, per cent) Labour market statistics, Table 1, Code MGSX

Domestic demand National accounts, Table C2, Code YBIM

Exports (goods and services) National accounts, Table C2, Code IKBK

Imports (goods and services) National accounts, Table C2, Code IKBL

General government consumption National accounts, Table C2, Code NMRY

Gross fixed investment National accounts, Table C2, Code NPQT

Change in inventories National accounts, Table C2, Code CAFU

GDP National accounts, Table C2, Code ABMI

Private consumption Households + NPISH, National accounts, Table C2,

Code ABJR+HAYO

Output Gap The gap between actual output and trend (or potential) output,

CPI (Q4) Consumer Price Indices release, Table 2, Code D7G7

RPI (Q4) Consumer Price Indices release, Table 2, Code CZBH

Whole Economy Average Weekly Earnings Labour market statistics, Table 15, Code KAB9

Sterling index (Q4, Jan 2005=100) Bank of England Monetary and Financial statistics division

Official Bank Rate (Q4) (Previously Bank of England repo rate (Q4)), Code BEDR

Oil price ($ per barrel) Brent crude, annual average

Nominal GDP growth National accounts, Code IHYM

RHDI National accounts, Table J2, Code NRJR

Employment growth Labour market statistics, Table JOBS01, Code DYDC

Productivity Measured as output per hour worked

Claimant unemployment (Q4, mn) Labour market statistics, Table CLA01, Code BCJD

Size of APF purchases (£bn) http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/apf/index.htm

Public Sector Net Borrowing Public sector finances, Table PSA 1, Code J5II

Manufacturing Output National accounts, Table B1, Code L2KX

World trade in goods and services Annual growth of world trade in goods and services

Current account (£bn) Balance of payments release, Table A, Code HBOP


http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/apf/index.htm

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/apf/index.htm

Annex 3: Notation used in tables

a: as a percentage of GDP

b: non-durable consumption

c: consumer expenditure less expenditure on durables and housing

d: private sector investment, stockbuilding and durable consumption

e: investment and stockbuilding combined

f: contribution to GDP growth - percentage points

g: end period

h: calendar year

i: financial year

j: compensation of employees/head

k: different definitions; refer to forecasters for details

l: 3 month interbank rate

m: general government current and capital expenditure plus stockbuilding

n: average of spot price of Brent crude and Dubai light crude

o: world trade in manufacturing

p: ILO unemployment - millions

q: Quarter on quarter a year ago

r: PSNCR (Formerly PSBR)

s: PSNB including the effect of financial interventions

t: world GDP

u: OPEC average

v: final domestic demand

w: percentage change

x: based on Halifax house price index

y: based on Nationwide house price index

z: based on UK house price index

aa: claimant unemployment rate

ab: treaty deficit

ac: Excluding Royal Mail Pension Fund & APF transfers

ad: M4 growth

ae

PSNB excludes the impact of financial sector interventions, but includes flows from APF of the Bank of England. Includes impact of Royal Mail's pension fund

af Excludes corporate bonds


Organisation Contact E-mail address Telephone number

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Robert Wood [email protected] 020 7996 7415

Barclays Capital Abbas Khan [email protected] 020 7773 3277

Beacon Economic Forecasting David B Smith [email protected] 019 2389 7885

British Chambers of Commerce Suren Thiru [email protected] 0207 654 5801

Bloomberg Economics Dan Hanson [email protected] 020 3525 9851

Cambridge Econometrics Michael Lee [email protected] 012 235 33100

Capital Economics William Ellis [email protected] 020 7823 5000

CBI Christopher Breen [email protected] 011 5852 3151

CEBR Nina Skero [email protected] -

Citigroup Ann O'Kelly [email protected] 020 7986 3297

Commerzbank Peter Dixon [email protected] 020 7653 7271

Credit Suisse Sonali Punhani [email protected] -

Daiwa Capital Markets Emily Nicol [email protected] 020 7597 8326

Deutsche Bank Sanjay Raja [email protected] 020 7545 2087

European Commission Jana Hoeffken [email protected] +32 229-83548

Economic Perspectives Tom Traill [email protected] 015 8269 6999

EIU Matthew Oxenford [email protected] -

Experian Economics Hasnath Chowdhury [email protected] -

Fathom Consulting Oliver Jones [email protected] 020 7710 0050

Goldman Sachs Andrew Benito [email protected] 020 7051 4004

Heteronomics Philip Rush [email protected] -

HSBC Daphne Forbes-Russell [email protected] -

IHS Markit Economics Raj Badiani [email protected] -

ING James Smith [email protected] 020 7767 6614

EY ITEM Club Howard Archer [email protected] -

J P Morgan Anisa Khatun [email protected] -

Kern Consulting David Kern [email protected] -

Liverpool Macro Research David Meenagh [email protected] 029 2087 5198

Morgan Stanley Jacob Nell [email protected] 020 7425 9110

NIESR Garry Young [email protected] 020 7654 1916

Nomura George Buckley [email protected] 020 7102 1800

NatWest Markets Ross Walker [email protected] 020 7085 3670

Oxford Economics Alexander Lai [email protected] 6.7

Pantheon Samuel Tombs [email protected] 020 3744 7430

PwC Barret Kupelian [email protected] 020 7213 1579

Santander GBM Stuart Green [email protected] 020 7756 6170

Schroders Investment Management Azad Zangana [email protected] 020 7658 2671

Scotiabank Alan Clarke [email protected] 020 7826 5986

Societe Generale Dr Brian Hilliard [email protected] 020 7676 7165

Annex 4: Organisation contact details


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Forecasts for the UK economy...Inventories (contribution to GDP growth (ppt)) Domestic demand Total...

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