Forecasting, Warnings and Evacuations

Social Vulnerability Concepts

“Populations at Risk” “Vulnerable Populations” “Socially Vulnerable” “Special Populations”

Underlying each concept is that some citizens face higher risk of injury, property loss, or death because of their social and economic status and also because mainstream society marginalizes their cultural frameworks or situational locations (Phillips & Morrow, 2007)

Learning Goals

What are different ways of detecting hazards?

Understanding the importance of warning systems

Evaluate and select appropriate protective action for affected populations

Getting the Communities involved

Implications at the Jurisdictional level

General concepts…

Detect hazard Seek additional information Notify pertinent leaders Activate the Emergency Operations Center

(EOC) Initiate the response

Hazard Detection

Senses Feedback from field personnel Dispatch Increased radio traffic News media Hospitals

Hazard Detection (contd.)

Volunteers – ARES (Amateur Radio Emergency Services), RACES (Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Services), spot tornadoes and inform EM

Meteorological services and scientists – NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)

Technology – satellites, birds-eye view Incident Page Network

Incident Page Network (IPN)

Sends alerts to your email, pager, cell phone or other wireless messaging device in real-time

Nationwide coverage, plus extended coverage in Canada and Australia

Worlds largest and most comprehensive breaking news notification network

Specific states, counties & cities, incidents, hours

Classic Persuasion Model

Warning research: 1. hearing the warning, 2. believing

that it is credible, 3. confirming the warning, 4.deciding if it

pertains to the recipient, 5. determining if protective action is

necessary, 6. deciding if protective action is feasible, and 7.

determining what action to takeSource

MessageChannel Receiver

Feedback

Effect

Protective Action Decision Model

Predecisionalprocesses

Environmental cues

Socialcontext

Information sources

Information channels

Message content

Receiver characteristics

Risk identification:“Is there a real threat I need to pay

attention to?”

Risk assessment:“Do I need to take protective action?”

Protective action search:“What can be done to achieve

protection?”

Protective action assessment:“What is the best method of protection?”

Protective action implementation: “Does protection action need to be taken

now?”

Information needs assessment:

“What information do I need?”

Communication action assessment: “Where and how can I obtain this

information?”

Communication action implementation: “Do I need the information now?”

Initial Steps a Person Takes

Seeking additional information- what happened? - has it been verified? - what are the consequences? - can city leaders or departments provide support?- what do first responders need?

Notifying and communicating with others- dispatch, field personnel, fire department

Thought Process

Assessment – information gathered, decisions made, message formulated

Dissemination – information relayed, time it is relayed, received and acted upon by public

Risk identification – do threats exist? Risk assessment – protection required? Risk reduction – is protection possible? Protective response – what protective action is

best and taking it

Watch and Warning

Watch – conditions are ripe for a hazard to occur

Warning – indicates hazard is imminent, is taking place, or has occurred- when, how long, - severity of impact, projected damages- potential power outages, - closed street areas

Types of Warning Systems

Sirens Media Emergency Alert System Reverse 911 Intercoms, Tele-typewriters, Telephone

devices, strobe lights Loud speakers, door-to-door notification,

weather radios

Warning Considerations

Clear and accurate Repeated and consistent Credible sources must confirm People perceive warnings differently

Why People Do not Evacuate?

Not aware of risk Do not take the risk seriously Warnings are not clear Fear of looting Age Size and make up of family Missing family members and pets Neighbors behavior Experience Education, Type of housing

Evacuation

Horizontal and/or Vertical evacuation

Procedures1. Decision to evacuate2. Notify population3. Provide guidelines4. Direct traffic5. Ensure compliance and continued safety

- stragglers6. Monitor evacuation and traffic

Issues

Sampling vulnerable populations Research teams End user integration – participatory action

research

Literature Overview - GENDER

1. Gender relations in family and work roles affect their vulnerability in different ways

2. Gender interacts with other variables to increase vulnerability – single-parents, females, lower income

3. Gendered practices thwart women’s potential contribution

4. Results in difficulties in responding to warnings and taking protective actions

Literature Overview

1. Limited research on what kinds of forecasting information the elderly want, through what channels, and how they come to a decision

2. Children3. Race and ethnicity4. Persons with disabilities

Getting the Community Involved

Discuss your work with friends and neighbors Set up hazard hotline Speak to various stakeholder groups – expand

the pool of knowledgeable groups Form citizen committees – neighborhood

watch, CERTs

Implications at the Jurisdictional Level

1. Federal, state and local government agencies should work through peer groups rather than only through the newsmedia to increase hazard knowledge and trustworthiness

www.opsplanner.com/Images/servicesolutiongrap...

Implications at the Jurisdictional Level

2. Increase support for public education programs by experts and knowledgeable organizations -FEMA, Red Cross, insurance agencies, disaster researchers

mainearts.maine.gov/organizations/community/i...

www.isrt.com/simulation.jpg

Implications at the Jurisdictional Level

3. Encourage formation and institutionalization of broad-based support groups for individual householders – Neighborhood Watch/ Community Emergency Response Teams

www.ci.daytona-beach.fl.us/police/images/CERT...

http://www.tuscoema.org/CERT/Image2.jpg

Implications at the Jurisdictional Level

4. Encourage businesses at the local level to participate in community dialogues to strengthen vertical and horizontal linkages – planning for business continuity

http://www.controles.co.uk/solutions/business_continuity.jpg

http://www.utopicsolutions.com/images/servic13.jpg

Implications at the Jurisdictional Level

5. Involve NGOs, NPOs, CBOs, religious organizations, and businesses during the early stages of risk communication

www.volunteerministers.org/img/katrina/7_sept...

medicine.plosjournals.org/archive/1549-1676/2...

Implications at the Jurisdictional Level

7. Renew funding for the ‘Community Partnership Model’ that was promoted by FEMA’s PROJECT IMPACT initiative to help transition from public education and preparedness to mitigation activities among local business communities and citizen groups

Reference:

Lindell, M.K., Prater, C.S. & Perry, R.W. (2006). Emergency Management Principles and Practices. Washington DC: John Wiley (Chapter 2)

Walter G. Peacock, Betty H. Morrow and Hugh Gladwin. Hurricane Andrew: Ethnicity, Gender and the Sociology of Disasters. Chp. 4 and 5.