Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet
17
Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet Memphis Area SAS User’s Group September 30, 2004 Tom Nunnikhoven International Paper, Memphis Business Modeling & Optimization Services (901)419-7564
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Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet. Memphis Area SAS User’s Group September 30, 2004 Tom Nunnikhoven International Paper, Memphis Business Modeling & Optimization Services (901)419-7564. Topics. Uncoated Free Sheet – What it is Historical Demand Industry Segments - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet
Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet
Memphis Area SAS User’s GroupSeptember 30, 2004
Tom NunnikhovenInternational Paper, Memphis
Business Modeling & Optimization Services(901)419-7564
Topics
• Uncoated Free Sheet – What it is• Historical Demand • Industry Segments• Consumption Patterns and Forecasts by Segment• UFS Forecast for 2003 and Results
US TOTAL UFS PAPER DOMESTIC SUPPLY THE 70s, THE 80s, AND THE 90s
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
ON
S
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
US TOTAL UFS PAPER DOMESTIC SUPPLY WE REACH THE NEW MILLENIUM...
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
on
s
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
UFS Domestic Supply Average Rates of Change
Year Annual Change
1972 – 1979 +3.6%
1981- 1989 +4.0%
1990 – 1999 +2.1%
2000 -1.4%
2001 -7.4%
2002 -1.2%
2003 ???
Uncoated Free Sheet Industry Segments
• Printing• Envelope• Business• Forms• Tablet• Other
Prospects Differ Greatly Between Segments …
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TABLET PAPER DOMESTIC SUPPLY
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
on
s
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
BUSINESS PAPER DOMESTIC SUPPLY
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
on
s
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
Segments Have Consistent Relationships with U.S. Economic Metrics
TABLET PAPER CONSUMPTION RATE
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
To
ns / $
Billio
n G
DP
, 1996$
0
25
50
75
100
125
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
BUSINESS PAPER CONSUMPTION RATE
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
To
ns
/ M E
mp
loye
es
0
5
10
15
20
25
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
Method for Forecasting UFS
• For each segment– Model consumption rate per unit– Project the U.S. economy component– Project the segment demand based on this
BUSINESS PAPER CONSUMPTION RATE TONS PER 1000 EMPLOYEES, HIGH PAPER-CONSUMING OCCUPATIONS
TRENDLINE: -3.13 + 0.63 * YEAR, R-SQUARED = 0.97P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
TO
NS
/ M
EM
PL
OY
EE
S
0
5
10
15
20
25
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
Employment, High-Paper Consuming Occupations, Seasonally Adjusted (Manufacturing; Finance, Real Estate, Insurance; Government, Health, Education)
_______ Actual. ------- DRI (Global Insights) ForecastP&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M E
mp
loye
es
40000
42500
45000
47500
50000
52500
55000
57500
60000
62500
65000
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
UFS Business Paper Domestic Supply Fitted to Employment in High Paper Consuming Occupations
_______ Actual. ----- Projected from Trend in Tons / M EmployeesP&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
on
s
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
Total UFS Domestic Supply is Projected from the Six Segments Combined
US TOTAL UFS PAPER DOMESTIC SUPPLY
_______ Actual. ----- FITTED AND FORECASTP&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
ON
S
1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 3250 3500 3750 4000
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
Results
• Change in UFS Domestic Supply, 2003
– Projected: -1.1%
– Actual: -0.9%
